tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24559671629472761842024-03-18T02:47:47.158-07:00Dr David GrimesConsultant physician and gastroenterologistDavid Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.comBlogger168125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-31705076042259502682023-10-28T02:05:00.000-07:002023-10-28T02:05:37.456-07:00Vitamin D and the second pandemic of the present decade<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgenxCpprR5Ar0YxIEzoqC-gkC2fyeVDN0YR2HzSV4K-s-Mqi_LJn0cfnkxl5T1J_xRb1um6hLYA7l-F8w3v2gnuuvK2ELum4Yrf7r0tOsf7AEvqzciH10LnJcxDP_OwSsgKXE_JioTSnaipm_ktBF8wxVN89G_fF08MQ_mz4NbwLfjk43Sir3KW3KhhSRS/s884/Wall%20Street%20J.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="444" data-original-width="884" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgenxCpprR5Ar0YxIEzoqC-gkC2fyeVDN0YR2HzSV4K-s-Mqi_LJn0cfnkxl5T1J_xRb1um6hLYA7l-F8w3v2gnuuvK2ELum4Yrf7r0tOsf7AEvqzciH10LnJcxDP_OwSsgKXE_JioTSnaipm_ktBF8wxVN89G_fF08MQ_mz4NbwLfjk43Sir3KW3KhhSRS/w400-h201/Wall%20Street%20J.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The first pandemic of the present decade</b></span></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Early 2020 saw the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. In the UK, significant numbers occurred in March, and by March 23rd there had been 28 deaths from Covid-19. The government had to do something. As government advisors (mathematician modellers) had predicted huge numbers of deaths, action was essential. It was in the form of “lockdown” on March 23rd, the closure of schools, universities, places of worship, holidays, concerts, most transport, and many places of work.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBT-doQdk_VsiKZctJ3q0ziPhMnhadsS_A5lGJhjHJONJqIxYs92ctg8kjm8OwxKR6UkgT2mrsZ3XconFjeufhcNE0FURRKyffg-ZvE0ghKbBmLCS11TAZ-_PldXCoSuRsSxf5tjHROS7fE7InCiIxHZgxu3TZSMDUy5YNvyNjqwqSeptF53DNAHAWhksH/s2110/Cases.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="2110" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBT-doQdk_VsiKZctJ3q0ziPhMnhadsS_A5lGJhjHJONJqIxYs92ctg8kjm8OwxKR6UkgT2mrsZ3XconFjeufhcNE0FURRKyffg-ZvE0ghKbBmLCS11TAZ-_PldXCoSuRsSxf5tjHROS7fE7InCiIxHZgxu3TZSMDUy5YNvyNjqwqSeptF53DNAHAWhksH/w640-h252/Cases.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 1a. The Covid-19 pandemic in the UK in 2020, cases</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><br /></div><div><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Damaging as it was to society and the economy, Lockdown had no obvious effect on the number of Covid-19 deaths, which by April 8th had increased to almost 1,000 per day.</span></p></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiASkwDUa0jtHCAq0-Te4BDowQ1QkIl21gbZ05xohDzhOxr5xd5-5JUsm1yK6N_gVzD1VLF2eMIHQ8oixPhI0zDEaIccbRHmjdz-ig3EsuyFG-AgyuNqd0uE3LWKVDGJGa5JTWBH09IXq8lfy9mupwdy4eojNyqKnml3F-E_SwgFBXwxiqM-xgAr6BWJZQm/s870/Deaths.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="316" data-original-width="870" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiASkwDUa0jtHCAq0-Te4BDowQ1QkIl21gbZ05xohDzhOxr5xd5-5JUsm1yK6N_gVzD1VLF2eMIHQ8oixPhI0zDEaIccbRHmjdz-ig3EsuyFG-AgyuNqd0uE3LWKVDGJGa5JTWBH09IXq8lfy9mupwdy4eojNyqKnml3F-E_SwgFBXwxiqM-xgAr6BWJZQm/w640-h232/Deaths.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 1b. The Covid-19 pandemic in the UK in 2020, deaths</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The benefit from UV and vitamin D</span></b></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">After April 2020 there was a progressive decline of cases and also of Covid-19 deaths, to only single numbers each day in the summer (Figure 1b). This should have come as no surprise: i</span><span style="font-family: arial;">t was the result of “nature”. Every year the incidence of respiratory infections is maximal in the winter and progressively reduces to a minimum in the summer. Covid-19 was no exception. This annual phenomenon is the result of an increasing penetration of solar UV to ground level as the Sun rises higher above the horizon. The UV acts on our skin to convert the synthesised 7-dehydrocholesterol (7-DHC) into vitamin D, which is essential for the escalation of defensive immunity.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Ignoring those at most risk</span></b></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">50% of those who died from Covid-19 in the UK were older than 85 years. The other groups with a high risk of death were the obese, those with <a href=" http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-deaths-of-doctors.html">Black African and South Asian ethnicity</a>, and <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/03/covid-19-vitamin-d-haredi-bame-obese.html">Haredi Jews</a>. The great majority of people in all these groups were known before the appearance of Covid-19 to be seriously deficient of vitamin D. </span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiExGaaiHwKk_RW1b6hqNj3CNZ1K07cKiE1IS-EN4W2Lq0OcaFB1ilMwsreg6uuKBVhHr8DE02Q6Ofeo7fB31PT8PqzJO5pNJiQscpQvEXPt14Y2t53JJHZERfIsefoZXtcFr3RHlZntprdhqlHVnL0PYQ7fJOvh2yUIBBPF07YFc17J4XLeqkZOQ2m1hnj/s516/Screenshot%202020-06-10%20at%2013.03.10.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="329" data-original-width="516" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiExGaaiHwKk_RW1b6hqNj3CNZ1K07cKiE1IS-EN4W2Lq0OcaFB1ilMwsreg6uuKBVhHr8DE02Q6Ofeo7fB31PT8PqzJO5pNJiQscpQvEXPt14Y2t53JJHZERfIsefoZXtcFr3RHlZntprdhqlHVnL0PYQ7fJOvh2yUIBBPF07YFc17J4XLeqkZOQ2m1hnj/w400-h255/Screenshot%202020-06-10%20at%2013.03.10.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Figure 2. Doctors dying from Covid-19 in the UK</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Why was this knowledge ignored? This was serious clinical negligence, especially when compounded by the failure to absorb new knowledge published during 2020 and 2021.</span></p></div><div><br /></div><div><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Disinformation from the Secretary of State for Health</span></b></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Matt Hancock, the Secretary of State for Health in 2020, was asked about multiple studies showing a link between serious Covid-19 and vitamin D deficiency. He replied that a British study had found the opposite. Officials have recently admitted that this was not true, and that the health secretary “mis-spoke”. This disinformation meant that vitamin D supplements in appropriate dose were not used to protect against Covid-19 in the UK, and elsewhere. </span></p></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Variation of Covid-19 deaths in 2020</span></b></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It was not surprising that there was an increase in Covid-19 deaths in the autumn of 2020 when the intensity of solar UV declined and the production of vitamin D in the skin diminished. This would be expected, but it is surprising that the peak increased to an even higher level in early 2021. We will follow this shortly.</span></p></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The importance of vitamin D</span></b></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Several studies demonstrated that a very low blood level of vitamin D is found in people with critical or fatal Covid-19. It has been pointed out and it is true that a serious infection can reduce the blood level of vitamin D in an individual, but this has not been clearly quantified. It could have been quantified in detail during the 2020 pandemic but if so results are not available. </span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">However it became clear (<a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/12/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-strong-evidence.html">especially from Israel</a>) that low blood levels of vitamin D were of great predictive value in respect of a serious critical or fatal Covid-19 outcome, Figure 3. </span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwys6yeGKdZRrnzeNcEf1tsRvLOO_y8eM59T1iQmDa_o4ULVg6h1eqfU6WYJcmIgQyQDOcuMVnx6EcGYw0DXWfJvwP17uO6zkCqip2soNSuRKrgJBbWOSkQMqkuabtmT3cwBGdHA-rv_T1o3ai7ipO22Mpgpn2y6EwiH-lfj3bh3HiqAai0qxjiFqx2aIl/s822/Screenshot%202021-10-28%20at%2021.24.59.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="604" data-original-width="822" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwys6yeGKdZRrnzeNcEf1tsRvLOO_y8eM59T1iQmDa_o4ULVg6h1eqfU6WYJcmIgQyQDOcuMVnx6EcGYw0DXWfJvwP17uO6zkCqip2soNSuRKrgJBbWOSkQMqkuabtmT3cwBGdHA-rv_T1o3ai7ipO22Mpgpn2y6EwiH-lfj3bh3HiqAai0qxjiFqx2aIl/w400-h294/Screenshot%202021-10-28%20at%2021.24.59.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 3. Critical care Covid-19 and vitamin D status</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We can see in Figure 3 that in this study all (100%) of the Covid-19 cases who were critically ill were vitamin D deficient. 95% were severely deficient with pre-illness blood levels less than 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L. The future opportunity for prevention of illness is glaringly obvious.</span><p></p></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In a <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2023/06/2023-retrospective-of-vitamin-d.html">previous Blog post</a> I reviewed the reports of the benefits of vitamin D in the Covid-19 pandemic.</span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A typical epidemic/pandemic</span></b></div><div>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We are accustomed to epidemics of disease and deaths, which usually occur during the winter months, especially January to March when the blood levels of vitamin D are at their lowest. The epidemic, if fatal disease, produces a sudden increase in a number of deaths more than expected at that time. It is the vulnerable that usually die, but they can only die once. This means that the increase in the number of deaths for a given population is followed by a compensatory decrease in the number subsequently, in Figure 4. </span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC997mUbz6A0F4iqe31exRiPOxfLFzXQXPMEQWOhTnYiwvnRecJH1T1b2fvFhvlxhyIcrY8ikHYhkpgPw3naxLtoI1Dm0y5gm-XWKDcIAsZyay5eE7RQmqETsTw4hqaacXOvbhzuDU9kCNgCNwN5xqwcEiulx885n3nMkbKXm-m672tFoqkTK4o6U5-4pR/s1246/Screenshot%202023-06-25%20at%2018.22.05.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="810" data-original-width="1246" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC997mUbz6A0F4iqe31exRiPOxfLFzXQXPMEQWOhTnYiwvnRecJH1T1b2fvFhvlxhyIcrY8ikHYhkpgPw3naxLtoI1Dm0y5gm-XWKDcIAsZyay5eE7RQmqETsTw4hqaacXOvbhzuDU9kCNgCNwN5xqwcEiulx885n3nMkbKXm-m672tFoqkTK4o6U5-4pR/w400-h260/Screenshot%202023-06-25%20at%2018.22.05.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 4. The typical pattern of an epidemic</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We remember that in early 2020 we saw many deaths from Covid-19, a rapid increase over expected numbers of deaths, followed by reducing numbers in the Spring. But we were only shown Covid-19 deaths at the time, not total number of deaths. It is only from total deaths that we can appreciate a compensatory reduction of deaths. The number of those who died in the pandemic is matched by the subsequent reduction in the number of deaths. This always happens. </span></p></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">New Zealand</span></b></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The time-line of the first pandemic is illustrated well by the experience of New Zealand. This information from Our World in Data shows total deaths. We can see in Figure 5 the excess deaths in early 2020 compared with the 2015–2019 average, indicating the initial Covid-19 pandemic. It is followed by a reduction of “excess” deaths, negative, in the following weeks. </span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQNDltXTdC87Fix87b48XyNJawj2yks7MNwPqWHuT3UTY8bBt2m0lYZONDR_elTStNTgZn0ce70rq5jAHrgHYNTSTsRMvPPkSd5ZF9AQ50p_GAYq14LVOD7TtZ2bxNEdaN67NbbNhkIH4QFDWsURfv946OUn_fNwGOmXF0iudNIJ_UgBSUiNf5FXPbF4Zo/s476/Screenshot%202023-10-11%20at%2020.41.15.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="476" data-original-width="306" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQNDltXTdC87Fix87b48XyNJawj2yks7MNwPqWHuT3UTY8bBt2m0lYZONDR_elTStNTgZn0ce70rq5jAHrgHYNTSTsRMvPPkSd5ZF9AQ50p_GAYq14LVOD7TtZ2bxNEdaN67NbbNhkIH4QFDWsURfv946OUn_fNwGOmXF0iudNIJ_UgBSUiNf5FXPbF4Zo/w258-h400/Screenshot%202023-10-11%20at%2020.41.15.png" width="258" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 5. The typical pattern of an epidemic, example from New Zealand</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Germany</span></b></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We have been provided with <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362777743_Excess_mortality_in_Germany_2020-2022">total deaths occurring in Germany</a> during 2020. The important data concern the proportionate increase or decrease. The baseline of the bar chart shown in Figure 6 is the average during the years 2015 to 2019, expressed as zero for the purpose of comparison with subsequent years.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9N0p59Nh-hxEKjNEMyaGSbTeMd8lQGjts3KQwlQ_5vtZBqhv4XccH9xyH2STBjxNdfYmA59Cf7MgoUm4JPY8daD66V9iq5WeagfWCbtXEYSPvXpCYadpfBkrVBZyPk51oxwbbt2hn4HY9Lk48fIPoLfQu33p1uX6-k_A9Wwr-Rw0ecbdsQD5HWxyawCYA/s912/Screenshot%202023-10-11%20at%2020.47.49.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="912" data-original-width="716" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9N0p59Nh-hxEKjNEMyaGSbTeMd8lQGjts3KQwlQ_5vtZBqhv4XccH9xyH2STBjxNdfYmA59Cf7MgoUm4JPY8daD66V9iq5WeagfWCbtXEYSPvXpCYadpfBkrVBZyPk51oxwbbt2hn4HY9Lk48fIPoLfQu33p1uX6-k_A9Wwr-Rw0ecbdsQD5HWxyawCYA/w314-h400/Screenshot%202023-10-11%20at%2020.47.49.png" width="314" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 6. Germany – excess deaths by age-group in 2020</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is interesting to note that there was only an overall minimal excess deaths during 2020 (grey column in the Figure 6). The excess was only minimal even in people above the age of 70, those who experienced most deaths. The point is that we are looking average deaths per week during all of 2020. The elderly people who died in the initial weeks of the pandemic were no longer alive during subsequent weeks. In other words they were destined by their age and frailty to die during 2020, and the pandemic merely brought forward their deaths by a few weeks or months.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></div><div><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> It is also interesting to look at excess deaths among children of school age. There was a large reduction of deaths, but this could hardly be a direct result of the Covid-19 pandemic. We can only speculate, but it seems to be most likely that the reduction of deaths of children was the result of lock-down, with closure of schools and places of worship, children being confined to the house, and the absence of road traffic should they venture outside. Although Lockdown appears to have reduced the number of deaths of children, there are recent reports that another effect was to reduce the communication skills of children with a negative effect on education.</span></p></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The second pandemic – excess deaths</span></b></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Sudden unexpected deaths</span></b></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">During 2022 it became clear that there was an unusually large number of young and middle-aged people dying from “sudden unexpected death”. This phenomenon was often called in the press “heart attacks”, which is a euphemism meaning that individual died suddenly and unexpectedly as presumably the heart suddenly stopped beating. </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Sometimes the cause of the sudden death has been given as “natural causes”, meaning not trauma or homicide, but from the medical view point this is completely unhelpful. </span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We have not had any clear understanding of the results of autopsies in these “sudden and unexpected deaths”, and there are reports of a distinct official policy to discourage or even prevent autopsies being performed. We therefore have little or no knowledge of whether or not there was an underlying or pre-existing disease. </span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We must remember that during the 20th century there was a pandemic of coronary heart disease (CHD) with its peak in 1970. This was shown clearly by information from the<a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2018/03/the-coronary-heart-disease-pandemic-in.html"> USA</a> and from the <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2016/09/coronary-heart-disease-yesterday-today.html">UK</a>. During the pandemic, and especially at its peak, cardiac arrests were relatively common. This led to the introduction of cardio-pulmonary resuscitation (CPR), defibrillation, and coronary care units (CCUs), unknown before the late 1960s. I qualified in medicine in 1966 and I remember this very well. The underlying heart disease was atherosclerosis in a particularly vicious form. The early stages were identified very clearly in <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2018/09/chd-in-three-generations-of-soldiers.html">young US soldiers</a> killed in action. It was obvious that the development time from initial disease to clinical and perhaps fatal disease was at least twenty years. The "sudden and unexpected" deaths during the past three years suggests a disease process other than known CHD.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></div><div><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The number of sudden unexpected deaths during 2022 is not known because national data has not been published. When questioned, the UK Chief Medical Officer, Sir Chris Whitty, did not deny the existence of many additional sudden and unexpected deaths, but he suggested that the reason was that people had stopped taking their statin medications (reported on January 18th 2023). The lack of effectiveness of statins is not important at present, but a perusal of the weekly UK reports of medicines dispensed indicates no change in respect of statins during 2022 (Figure 7). More disinformation from government.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtyr7F_gkWmcYKcrNSoQdrst0ZE4NydSVX2OyrFSbz7dNNcyQfORkspZ0H-cFXVr1C4phpiwtgDdAxuSJ6DtAJaBiRhVJ8P0VPxyO7RUYlB1yKmb-GrpLFRr7DbXaHUGTM-nq1yZW5mQRqgOnIjr0WiwLYEkvMsyvp57JZnm_staT8nTnwdeK_WYaBiSKS/s2144/Statins.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="896" data-original-width="2144" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtyr7F_gkWmcYKcrNSoQdrst0ZE4NydSVX2OyrFSbz7dNNcyQfORkspZ0H-cFXVr1C4phpiwtgDdAxuSJ6DtAJaBiRhVJ8P0VPxyO7RUYlB1yKmb-GrpLFRr7DbXaHUGTM-nq1yZW5mQRqgOnIjr0WiwLYEkvMsyvp57JZnm_staT8nTnwdeK_WYaBiSKS/w640-h270/Statins.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 7. Statin prescriptions in England</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">During 2020 the national newspaper <i>The Guardian</i> drew attention in its news and obituary pages </span><span style="font-family: arial;">to 49 sudden and unexpected deaths</span><span style="font-family: arial;">. Without comparison with previous years, this seemed to be a remarkably large number, but <i>The Guardian</i> was unwilling to display the total. During 2023 there have been 18 similar reports or obituaries, but whether the</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> decline</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> is the result of a lower incidence or a change in editorial reporting policy is not clear. The average age at sudden death among these </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">sudden and unexpected deaths </span><span style="font-family: arial;">was 59 years, range 17 to 78.</span></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large; font-variant-caps: normal;">There were so </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">many reports of sudden and unexpected deaths in 2021 and 2022 reported in the media. They were inevitably deaths among well-known people, such as Lisa Marie Presley (famous father, 54), Paul Grant (actor, 56), Shane Warne (Australian cricketer, 56), Lance Reddick (actor, 62), Paul Cattermole (musician, 46), Dominic Kwiatkowski (Paediatrician and geneticist, 69), Helen Smart (headteacher and former Olympic swimmer (43), Maddy Cusak (Sheffield United footballer, 27), Ivan Andaur (pilot, 56). Many of the sudden and unexpected deaths were among sports-people, but they were all individual events. They were all human stories, human tragedies but t</span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">here was little attempt to collate them.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi60_T-MeRSZGxIFiPn9iprW8NlTTeyQ77tEYEl-kT1WgYTBc85nzWdRRtuvfZsfaAeAyaZTIQfRFGeOm6Un0jKlybfHvpr4XE2KL-x30bSrKc0bz30Kn4HVMDajaDVsK_OtNedqJNyf4ZsYZtsn2XDKKz8S56EFqsj8Ms2nQhrDBJVvXNO_v3p2P61oMSC/s944/Irish%20doctor.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="944" data-original-width="860" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi60_T-MeRSZGxIFiPn9iprW8NlTTeyQ77tEYEl-kT1WgYTBc85nzWdRRtuvfZsfaAeAyaZTIQfRFGeOm6Un0jKlybfHvpr4XE2KL-x30bSrKc0bz30Kn4HVMDajaDVsK_OtNedqJNyf4ZsYZtsn2XDKKz8S56EFqsj8Ms2nQhrDBJVvXNO_v3p2P61oMSC/s320/Irish%20doctor.png" width="292" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 8. one of many similar sudden unexplained deaths</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>More information from Gemany</b></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Further data analysis from Germany looked at diagnostic categories of sudden death and cardiac arrest. The data was that of death from these categories by quarter from 2016, as reported in official international diagnostic (ICD-10) codes. There is a slight gradual increase up to the end of 2020, but then a very sudden increase, a doubling of these deaths in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. This is alarming, and was obviously not random. </span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9Dl3oSgTHZuPpe2QXtu7YKnmxX5L36GMsDIGN_yOLnm7hR3ipOXt0XJ2KO_-qgK_it0ZllzG0x2we_Rt3vY7e5jIFUbH7ZYk6srCA12GRpF5XHSfxa5JTS9JzauADu1MDGX0GIH1ip9xbsUTlb3HsKh6qX8cwOsRmk2bFbsbi44SVmlvDEvZFp9BuIgV6/s1756/Screenshot%202023-10-13%20at%2014.06.03.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="968" data-original-width="1756" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9Dl3oSgTHZuPpe2QXtu7YKnmxX5L36GMsDIGN_yOLnm7hR3ipOXt0XJ2KO_-qgK_it0ZllzG0x2we_Rt3vY7e5jIFUbH7ZYk6srCA12GRpF5XHSfxa5JTS9JzauADu1MDGX0GIH1ip9xbsUTlb3HsKh6qX8cwOsRmk2bFbsbi44SVmlvDEvZFp9BuIgV6/w640-h352/Screenshot%202023-10-13%20at%2014.06.03.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 9a. Germany – sudden heart deaths by quarter</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A similar pattern was seen in the USA, this time looking at the total number of alleged deaths due to vaccinations from 2011 to 2023, Figure 9b. This data is from the official long-standing Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS). Again, something happened in 2011 that had not been experienced previously. The numbers of alleged deaths due to vaccinations was unprecedented.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhYaMiVIBGvyREPmqBaha3yrq-l61pUKIHfSz3oAvRauORxGGKHXEWbLR5J01lzN0gHALxKeNHkemvc3QslZPAFGIeSRyhD-sSo5KLpW4_qzTJOwgtEc1lset4r_3uwkU323JLbhc0vwCcdsUEqOHr4WYxjy_22Z1Cfj8kfvKfoJBegLnpPgZ-pj1yYJ4A/s990/VAERS.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="990" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhYaMiVIBGvyREPmqBaha3yrq-l61pUKIHfSz3oAvRauORxGGKHXEWbLR5J01lzN0gHALxKeNHkemvc3QslZPAFGIeSRyhD-sSo5KLpW4_qzTJOwgtEc1lset4r_3uwkU323JLbhc0vwCcdsUEqOHr4WYxjy_22Z1Cfj8kfvKfoJBegLnpPgZ-pj1yYJ4A/w400-h278/VAERS.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 9b. USA reports of possible vaccinations deaths</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">What is it that happened in Germany, the USA, </span><span style="font-family: arial;">and in other countries in early 2021 that might have caused this abrupt increase of sudden heart deaths, real or possible? Because of official silence on the phenomenon we cannot be certain and therefore speculation is inevitable. The official UK explanations of "not taking statins" or "delayed hospital treatment" are clearly not credible. Take for example, Helen Smart and Maddy Cusak, mentioned above. </span></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The obvious question is, "What else happened in early 2021 that might have been responsible?" The widespread Covid-19 vaccination programme at the beginning of 2021 becomes a contender, especially as it soon emerged officially that the new mRNA vaccines could damage the heart causing myocarditis. Exercise in someone experiencing acute myocarditis (perhaps asymptomatic) might be expected to result in a high risk of cardiac arrest.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The role of the mRNA vaccinations has been disputed, but without an alternative credible explanation. Silence from government and other official bodies suggest that there might be something to hide.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMU_vK-x5JnuuBhdFstT93cat67mbzZv5z_t9t9pMyETLYHWjHxUD6n-_laeKFsFiK-sayLxWJsdcvobTtgJMF1SOnKrIDkEDj6OsvHfP7-Tuuj5rI54X-tPmCxGW57iV4l_cnUkwHGFwthUwWv3CkIp1hltCI2nFtWNvyf6e9SeIxnpRKX8e9Ut8rZ-pM/s690/Screenshot%202023-10-13%20at%2014.44.47.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="506" data-original-width="690" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMU_vK-x5JnuuBhdFstT93cat67mbzZv5z_t9t9pMyETLYHWjHxUD6n-_laeKFsFiK-sayLxWJsdcvobTtgJMF1SOnKrIDkEDj6OsvHfP7-Tuuj5rI54X-tPmCxGW57iV4l_cnUkwHGFwthUwWv3CkIp1hltCI2nFtWNvyf6e9SeIxnpRKX8e9Ut8rZ-pM/w640-h474/Screenshot%202023-10-13%20at%2014.44.47.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 10. Cardiac arrests of footballers ?not a vaccine effect</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Excess deaths</span></b></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Sudden unexplained deaths became obvious during 2021 because they became the experience of people in respect of their friends or family or from reports of sudden unexpected deaths reported in the newspapers. However the total number of deaths in a day/week/month/quarter/year would be outside the experience of an individual and the data can only come from national data collection.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b></b><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is important to look at total deaths, and with this the number of deaths in a given time period compared to what is expected from the experience of a previous five-year average. As we have seen above, this gives us a measure of excess deaths.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">United Kingdom</span></b></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) informed us that in week 21 of 2023 there were 12,528 deaths in the UK. This included 1,076 deaths additional to the number expected compared to the 2015–2019 five year average for this particular week. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Covid-19 was written on the death certificate i</span><span style="font-family: arial;">n only 282 of these .</span></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5O0Z8VMnVrBEzJnOLgpexSXM5tvnHDSeMC-Wk_NgSl0K3VKqxlRj1I2ZeJJ4dVw1hUGTcJ7dIPlC33hoUgArMt1HsPQY3lJPHDF2ZIc8rS5J7Bjb5mQKhNf6bHU1Ba5fZr2agr7SxI_RxEJ2J7HsR3hcVdPeJNFvgrt0BsRTvRxc9-lWtJ41td1fLRVAc/s1902/Screenshot%202023-10-13%20at%2015.02.04.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1252" data-original-width="1902" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5O0Z8VMnVrBEzJnOLgpexSXM5tvnHDSeMC-Wk_NgSl0K3VKqxlRj1I2ZeJJ4dVw1hUGTcJ7dIPlC33hoUgArMt1HsPQY3lJPHDF2ZIc8rS5J7Bjb5mQKhNf6bHU1Ba5fZr2agr7SxI_RxEJ2J7HsR3hcVdPeJNFvgrt0BsRTvRxc9-lWtJ41td1fLRVAc/w400-h265/Screenshot%202023-10-13%20at%2015.02.04.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 11. UK ONS – 1074 excess deaths this week</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A thousand excess deaths in a week is alarming. Had it been a result of an earthquake, tsunami, or other natural disaster it would have been visible. But that was not the case. The 1,076 deaths were individuals in different places, just one at a time, peacefully, quietly, unknown to all but their close family and friends. Individuals might have been mentioned in newspaper death announcements, but there was no aggregated death report in the newspapers or medical journals.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The government has remained silent. Government officials will obviously have known about these deaths and there would obviously be detailed discussion behind closed doors. A</span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">s there would appear to be no public action to be taken, i</span><span style="font-family: arial;">t was in the interests of the government to make no comment.</span></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">No doubt through government direction, there has been no report of excess deaths in the general press, but on June 22nd 2023 The <i>Daily Telegraph </i>informed us that <i>“Heart deaths surge by more than 500 a week since pandemic”.</i> These heart deaths are half of total excess deaths, but no detailed analysis was given. The story lasted just a day. </span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The BBC has reported the excess deaths of 2022, but again with no sign of government interest.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJrPp-gtROcMuWCi3vdP7oMyqQv1RfzkSGuP47CpFAuR01b8e-ES8n7BKFtdr85vq9_x93jq0oEW_d4Ih_VB41nB1ovT2jIqeM0-hPBshUb4O6UQriIWnQp17jFYqtfPmGPAA6T-By48ncxgqYa688ARk95A26U5LMAnms2Lj4YfGuuOU3GPtgOQ4a-v3K/s728/BBC.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="728" height="165" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJrPp-gtROcMuWCi3vdP7oMyqQv1RfzkSGuP47CpFAuR01b8e-ES8n7BKFtdr85vq9_x93jq0oEW_d4Ih_VB41nB1ovT2jIqeM0-hPBshUb4O6UQriIWnQp17jFYqtfPmGPAA6T-By48ncxgqYa688ARk95A26U5LMAnms2Lj4YfGuuOU3GPtgOQ4a-v3K/w400-h165/BBC.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 12. Excess deaths, BBC report</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Excess deaths, Our World in Data</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We can look at total deaths in the UK from early 2022, information form <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline?country=~GBR">Our World in Data</a>. We see the number of deaths expressed as a percentage difference from the 2015 to 1019 average.</span><p></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVl8LoOzUzlUYBXtw9TnMcCSyPNNwT54r6VygmS1c3u73x3toKlhExbqlc_tJuMnKlsgUWrlaiD7feJiT-XPHmSGX-2hzaXN_WuMar3NvjT7l74BrRsbfT9jTDw7zWKEnluvzUt0nLjA1_yCDWN0scYTvm2N6SN2WZ5P07JuAsVwMv1l98GWNgZ2z2xqu5/s1476/UK%2010.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="556" data-original-width="1476" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVl8LoOzUzlUYBXtw9TnMcCSyPNNwT54r6VygmS1c3u73x3toKlhExbqlc_tJuMnKlsgUWrlaiD7feJiT-XPHmSGX-2hzaXN_WuMar3NvjT7l74BrRsbfT9jTDw7zWKEnluvzUt0nLjA1_yCDWN0scYTvm2N6SN2WZ5P07JuAsVwMv1l98GWNgZ2z2xqu5/w640-h243/UK%2010.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 13. UK – excess deaths 2022–2023</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The 100% increase in January 2020 was due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The increase in the following winter was when the summer vitamin D production had come to an end. 2021 was the year of vaccinations, intended to bring excess deaths to an end. But in 2022 excess deaths were at about 20%, and in 2023 continuing steadily at about 10%.</span></div><div><br /></div><div><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The UK government explained the thousands of excess deaths during 2022 as being due to hot weather during the summer. By international standards the UK does not have exceptionally hot summers. Older people were not issued with air-conditioning units during 2023.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMpW57FSTWB8IjodcVPhWpsQq5sbgYM-jKNbOSUc_cAjyx0yA09ZxroymOK5c7r0LK4qXmUpdyH-PdaiUqRj_JAeiZV8vH1hf8GpJYeFZ7B1WTuXd6qEIeZrTVteO931xm8Dag6xmf8r8sCCdEf57o-oYxpQaMGOOqiwYUpCjG7OBRpVE2PX2-oLA8Us5j/s674/Heat.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="196" data-original-width="674" height="116" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMpW57FSTWB8IjodcVPhWpsQq5sbgYM-jKNbOSUc_cAjyx0yA09ZxroymOK5c7r0LK4qXmUpdyH-PdaiUqRj_JAeiZV8vH1hf8GpJYeFZ7B1WTuXd6qEIeZrTVteO931xm8Dag6xmf8r8sCCdEf57o-oYxpQaMGOOqiwYUpCjG7OBRpVE2PX2-oLA8Us5j/w400-h116/Heat.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 14. UK – excess deaths due to hot weather ?</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Stillbirths and neonatal deaths</b></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There has not been a compensatory reduction in deaths, but a continuing excess. The total number of excess deaths can be judged (or counted) as the area under the graph points. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Without a compensatory reduction of the number of deaths or an increased birth rate, a reduction of population will be occurring. </span></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Unfortunately there appears to be a new increase in the number of deaths just before and just after birth, especially in socio-economically disadvantaged families.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhabc4rUjo-BpRG5nnxAGiKTLmDnhnmB6qu8A4dUt4buAy7klSOAog4JlG0GYXzobpIza7ZgX3da_rMCcrvEzX9RIEuFRXzRGookbV_lt9b-_0tHD3eUbeJy-LfcLs-9HvCsdqY-GtKF2O4xUuFoA8i-4XRxN9aRRmnOBewfpQDnKO7hMqln4WkDJonPPb8/s1112/UK%20Stillbirths.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="456" data-original-width="1112" height="165" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhabc4rUjo-BpRG5nnxAGiKTLmDnhnmB6qu8A4dUt4buAy7klSOAog4JlG0GYXzobpIza7ZgX3da_rMCcrvEzX9RIEuFRXzRGookbV_lt9b-_0tHD3eUbeJy-LfcLs-9HvCsdqY-GtKF2O4xUuFoA8i-4XRxN9aRRmnOBewfpQDnKO7hMqln4WkDJonPPb8/w400-h165/UK%20Stillbirths.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 15. UK – excess perinatal deaths, <i>Guardian</i></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Excess deaths of young people</b></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There is a concern that it is not just the elderly who have been dying in excess numbers during 2022 and 2023. Figure 16 shows excess deaths in the 0–24 age group in England. </span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpQ17jdGDLczw8sNMoTxZPvyu7iOlaTHiDZOV08I383EL-a3rdqe1RY3Drksx75Ks3GKLT6_L3PVgroSrmrY6bpJe9No1ielgBQqIDQhrnpGGEh91_Ewd4ngKDEyJ2cRr9Sqy_Tmdu4_BzokdhZAeb2OFdJx6_q-2AJcbKyMYSU2MVq7sOI8MmXc6j-rvO/s1084/England%20XS%206.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="434" data-original-width="1084" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpQ17jdGDLczw8sNMoTxZPvyu7iOlaTHiDZOV08I383EL-a3rdqe1RY3Drksx75Ks3GKLT6_L3PVgroSrmrY6bpJe9No1ielgBQqIDQhrnpGGEh91_Ewd4ngKDEyJ2cRr9Sqy_Tmdu4_BzokdhZAeb2OFdJx6_q-2AJcbKyMYSU2MVq7sOI8MmXc6j-rvO/w640-h256/England%20XS%206.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 16. England – excess deaths 2022–2023, 0–24 years of age</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We can see, as with the experience in Germany, a reduction in expected deaths during the first pandemic, Covid-19. The excess deaths in this age group during 2022 and 2023 is very disturbing, but the detail of causes of these deaths is not yet available.</span><p></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Edward Dowd is a health insurance expert and data analyst in the USA. He has noted the increasing insurance claims and has also analysed data from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS). Figure 17 shows <a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0efdaa13-4bfb-4a0d-8424-407e612b019e_1868x1049.png">his analysis of excess deaths </a>in the UK, young adults aged 15 to 44.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMuR2B8sd2bAOi6oQLIhyphenhyphennL5mcxaMmNAhBwJC2rgtBJzFch9oJ32FI2fA-AhIqB-rTjaC3V_md-byulDV118usf3oLiJH5VcrFXfuEAbZ-MB2rceufDuo7mRdzd-s7IpjK4BNdVttWkFWGL1XLoPM_l3UrJRYgmjPDNqLXd3UawS87YwZYJd_pNJOyHKsN/s1284/Dowd%20ONS.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="836" data-original-width="1284" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMuR2B8sd2bAOi6oQLIhyphenhyphennL5mcxaMmNAhBwJC2rgtBJzFch9oJ32FI2fA-AhIqB-rTjaC3V_md-byulDV118usf3oLiJH5VcrFXfuEAbZ-MB2rceufDuo7mRdzd-s7IpjK4BNdVttWkFWGL1XLoPM_l3UrJRYgmjPDNqLXd3UawS87YwZYJd_pNJOyHKsN/w640-h416/Dowd%20ONS.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 17. England & Wales – excess deaths ages 15–44</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We see a 30% increase of excess deaths in 2021 and 2022. The numbers for 2023 are not yet available.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In the UK there have been in 2023 strikes by doctors who demand a pay increase. The government states that this is the reason for excess deaths, but it would not have an effect beyond the shores of the UK. We will look at what has been happening in other countries.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Ireland </b></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In Ireland we see in Figure 18 the current excess deaths at about 20% above expected. This has been persistent during 2021– 2023 and it shows no sign of settling.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkdAxQaL0EiKEOclubUqY3RTQq0r_gaYxDOdzReyf0YGdfJ9VhfJZHDKQ5kTX_L5n4leyglqWZHiTvakhtx9xgdXe9lRlDMqmmeU5wY1F7bQLV5rmwWoO18AOH09FsutO9oGC98-2S1kNhEIoeqcsX-BgfZ0YSNSQYG91pZrcjCc1gERfB9bhJ_o5P9mHh/s1568/Ireland%2010.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="1568" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkdAxQaL0EiKEOclubUqY3RTQq0r_gaYxDOdzReyf0YGdfJ9VhfJZHDKQ5kTX_L5n4leyglqWZHiTvakhtx9xgdXe9lRlDMqmmeU5wY1F7bQLV5rmwWoO18AOH09FsutO9oGC98-2S1kNhEIoeqcsX-BgfZ0YSNSQYG91pZrcjCc1gERfB9bhJ_o5P9mHh/w640-h280/Ireland%2010.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Figure 18. Ireland – excess deaths 2020–2023</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">New Zealand</span></b></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">We have seen in Figure 5 the excess deaths in New Zealand during 2020, but t</span><span style="font-family: arial;">he time-line of excess deaths in New Zealand up to the middle of 2023 is seen in Figure 19. It is interesting and alarming, with excess deaths rising to 30% above expected during 2022, but perhaps settling in late 2023.</span></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="556" data-original-width="1476" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmO0F3DeXpCaWU1cRc8LL6ZpTEgRV6A_LtP_S8c8j1rO6nn0xTWGehDqHVU9kqGnwDIFPX8_AlxClUXpPS6KieVRhyJOuoSf2te7MsK5-C8FywIOiBiRumgnvWV17STU9FdSDxp78dnAZUSebz1fs0wYdHYGT3puI1d4oQl5o8sjNmbwmT4NkCkS65ZwQG/w640-h242/NZ10.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="640" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 19. New Zealand – excess deaths 2020–2023</b></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmO0F3DeXpCaWU1cRc8LL6ZpTEgRV6A_LtP_S8c8j1rO6nn0xTWGehDqHVU9kqGnwDIFPX8_AlxClUXpPS6KieVRhyJOuoSf2te7MsK5-C8FywIOiBiRumgnvWV17STU9FdSDxp78dnAZUSebz1fs0wYdHYGT3puI1d4oQl5o8sjNmbwmT4NkCkS65ZwQG/s1476/NZ10.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Australia</b></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A similar timeline is recorded in Australia, but no data have been recorded since mid-summer. The first pandemic in 2020 had a small effect with compensatory reduction in deaths. But in 2022 we see a second pandemic. Excess deaths have been steady at about 15% during 2023. Once again the area under the graph in Figure 20 indicates total excess deaths, and there has been no compensatory reduction. Excess deaths continue.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="556" data-original-width="1476" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXzUYQaJbF1RvwLbSrAaabMw-UoCaSM8N3LaxcDMeQa2TpHxhKlmkEJfGtDf-SX3VcrdBQi0nxQweVGaKya-9baVoypDB1flgbO235v0DNqrAyTmetTnvO73mPa01W8p4-GGYcYJUNg3OMIuSbEhotaKvKr46RTwt-U6FI5IoY-EUIyNSA4C4h9Dj1Jeey/w640-h242/Australia%2010.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="640" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 20. Australia – excess deaths 2020–2023</b></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXzUYQaJbF1RvwLbSrAaabMw-UoCaSM8N3LaxcDMeQa2TpHxhKlmkEJfGtDf-SX3VcrdBQi0nxQweVGaKya-9baVoypDB1flgbO235v0DNqrAyTmetTnvO73mPa01W8p4-GGYcYJUNg3OMIuSbEhotaKvKr46RTwt-U6FI5IoY-EUIyNSA4C4h9Dj1Jeey/s1476/Australia%2010.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span><p></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Germany</span></b></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We have seen in Figure 6 the interesting information of excess deaths in Germany during the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic. Although excess deaths were minimal in 2020, there was a 2% increase in the 70–79 age group.</span></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Looking at the same <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362777743_Excess_mortality_in_Germany_2020-2022">data souce</a>, we can see in Figure 21 that 2021 was different: there was an overall 3.5% excess death rate. It was still negative for young people, particularly high (about 7–8%) for the middle aged, but minimal for the elderly. </span></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnjYW4m7lS34Db19wKWbMmuciSonbTxAs21TnJ1nNAOMTYx5D9nH6NvWl1Yh1iRvq8-eXDbbQl8buCET4FSCsfV0w5zx7ElGLqmr1wlgwhZDzY_v0DzKT61f7BOSU-_Ii6eIFo6nCgggbg4ZdNBuAR76IUcSNuK2c8Ad4500QOru7zQocJ7XYVJ72l27V3/s1752/Germant%20XS%203.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="778" data-original-width="1752" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnjYW4m7lS34Db19wKWbMmuciSonbTxAs21TnJ1nNAOMTYx5D9nH6NvWl1Yh1iRvq8-eXDbbQl8buCET4FSCsfV0w5zx7ElGLqmr1wlgwhZDzY_v0DzKT61f7BOSU-_Ii6eIFo6nCgggbg4ZdNBuAR76IUcSNuK2c8Ad4500QOru7zQocJ7XYVJ72l27V3/w640-h286/Germant%20XS%203.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 21. Germany – excess deaths by age group, 2020, 2021, 2022</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There were more excess deaths in 2022, 9.5% for the 5–29 age group, and this is particularly alarming. The excess deaths were more than 10% in the 70-79 age group, and overall 6% above the pre-2020 five-year average.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The overall Our World in Data result for Germany is shown in Figure 22.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyHqCtEoPmzCnU5NzkYB4_1fC-BtHF4FTonVHYSpM7muTyG-tkaN6ojVpL3QjksFg2Z8umyugb4j-U9RL35sxadJ6qjYsFczD1-GdZIOrySiimiev-WblqoemJFZmZ3oUZB2zO3p3LxS8fq3e5n20G0hFDcpHbx_X9knEh4nT6-lTwLRF0ONskAc_ZPFeP/s1476/Germany%2010.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="556" data-original-width="1476" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyHqCtEoPmzCnU5NzkYB4_1fC-BtHF4FTonVHYSpM7muTyG-tkaN6ojVpL3QjksFg2Z8umyugb4j-U9RL35sxadJ6qjYsFczD1-GdZIOrySiimiev-WblqoemJFZmZ3oUZB2zO3p3LxS8fq3e5n20G0hFDcpHbx_X9knEh4nT6-lTwLRF0ONskAc_ZPFeP/w640-h242/Germany%2010.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 22. Germany – excess deaths 2020–2023</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Excess mortality reached a peak of more than 50% above expected levels in late 2022 but is now about 10%.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Europe</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The important source of data Eurostat provides further information, but I will just provide the Spring 2023 headline.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhG7qzDE6Ofb8bTM6gzcce839bfSojBBNY2R-6ispFdqj2QFIOWT_kqHt62DslXJ75NLs-DgfteJ3cJkIHsdSEfw9n1YULKRxtGt4re7zVt_DDxoJ-OfbcNsUK66tmAXMBGx5uNf3K2nQQP-72D87417dP_922USexTiOs1XtETjtRv2R6JF7_NX5O8GRPP/s1152/Eurostat.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="366" data-original-width="1152" height="129" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhG7qzDE6Ofb8bTM6gzcce839bfSojBBNY2R-6ispFdqj2QFIOWT_kqHt62DslXJ75NLs-DgfteJ3cJkIHsdSEfw9n1YULKRxtGt4re7zVt_DDxoJ-OfbcNsUK66tmAXMBGx5uNf3K2nQQP-72D87417dP_922USexTiOs1XtETjtRv2R6JF7_NX5O8GRPP/w400-h129/Eurostat.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 23. Europe – excess </b><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>mortality</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The EU has also released information concerning excess deaths of children, absolute numbers in the EU populations. We can see 1,500 excess deaths in 2022, and 600 excess deaths in the first half of 2023.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJDGSjCtTfeXQwV6-M-8U4mCTcc0kQgsH94AIAVrVQLBGPhfUUv_4eHMejbkusR8X52rZxb-5YMwMXH3KaPBwGEeKzRsMhe5aBH1xiCC0FwTJqKf0bUzw8WhfCn0yHKB_67VVyaWtLSRdTjeeiW-CGB_vY22U5j6oliu_9UvHrBcU0ONNNpFx96FZWK_3_/s996/EU%20children.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="644" data-original-width="996" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJDGSjCtTfeXQwV6-M-8U4mCTcc0kQgsH94AIAVrVQLBGPhfUUv_4eHMejbkusR8X52rZxb-5YMwMXH3KaPBwGEeKzRsMhe5aBH1xiCC0FwTJqKf0bUzw8WhfCn0yHKB_67VVyaWtLSRdTjeeiW-CGB_vY22U5j6oliu_9UvHrBcU0ONNNpFx96FZWK_3_/w400-h260/EU%20children.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Figure 24. Europe – excess deaths ages 0-14, 2019–2023</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Norway</span></b></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In Norway we can see in Figure 25 the usual variation in numbers of deaths throughout the years 2014 to 2020, with more in the winter, fewer in the summer, but varying around a steady average. The number of excess deaths in the winter is always compensated by fewer than average deaths in the summer.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The excess winter deaths were always less than 1,000, even in 2020, the year of the Covid-19 pandemic. But in 2021 we see a steady increase in the number of deaths, increasing in 2022 to a cumulative excess of 7,000. This trend has been unprecedented, but the 2023 number is not yet available. There appears to be an epidemic starting at the end of 2021. The excess deaths are no longer compensated by below average deaths in the summer, show in Figure 25. The pattern is as in Figures 4 and 5.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn2DHWgrWjvN6bCHvybGSS-PZwWtdYM48FwrUUaOsEL3iu5bCb3YTWfogojGIAP9gCXma7Fx1LQpDQLBXW9W2XrP2_HlTnkXwA4uB-H4FHF1EPi2YhNbsqX45aY3ABr1kEeIIpE1AmrLwXEwxLwW6GVWkoaS_G-gB6ySlxqB2WUalYYxTjwptWJ7XlXG9x/s1114/Norway.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="844" data-original-width="1114" height="486" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn2DHWgrWjvN6bCHvybGSS-PZwWtdYM48FwrUUaOsEL3iu5bCb3YTWfogojGIAP9gCXma7Fx1LQpDQLBXW9W2XrP2_HlTnkXwA4uB-H4FHF1EPi2YhNbsqX45aY3ABr1kEeIIpE1AmrLwXEwxLwW6GVWkoaS_G-gB6ySlxqB2WUalYYxTjwptWJ7XlXG9x/w640-h486/Norway.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 25. Norway – pattern of deaths 2014–2022</b></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The Our World in Data timeline for Norway is below. We can see the Covid-19 epidemic effect in 2020, and a compensatory recovery in early 2021. But in late 2021 and 2022 we can see again what appears to be a second epidemic, of ill-defined fatal illness.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixhDQ-cS0LrmPWa6xZ-jyHB6DkzFWdQPgCB9SqcSVaEUakDDRTPMUnTBOdOQP_15fxITm-FrTQEOK3Cl1BpulFRrEQm5PO6UwxGSpTQH9CHQyHRVk2CU0xz7sdgFaXlWNJAR62XfyrbAzSUrDe_nKEBQ_Y9BEinFD44neImTjK4sDO9dtN4iiLWnHt_Kr_/s1498/Norway%2010.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="1498" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixhDQ-cS0LrmPWa6xZ-jyHB6DkzFWdQPgCB9SqcSVaEUakDDRTPMUnTBOdOQP_15fxITm-FrTQEOK3Cl1BpulFRrEQm5PO6UwxGSpTQH9CHQyHRVk2CU0xz7sdgFaXlWNJAR62XfyrbAzSUrDe_nKEBQ_Y9BEinFD44neImTjK4sDO9dtN4iiLWnHt_Kr_/w640-h232/Norway%2010.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 26. Norway – excess deaths 2020–2023</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Canada</b></span><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Again the same pattern is seen in Figure 27, but with excess deaths increasing to 30% in 2022 and 2023. The sudden drop to 10% excess in April 2023 is encouraging but there is no data beyond that time. The area under the time-line represents the total number of excess deaths. There is no end to this, no compensatory reduction of deaths.</span></p></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimYYvSxLZM-MTggd36a1a2FDGOmtG6ldQXP2Z8EDerwFCh8FmrwQ7BgURUXzUkJ8yCYurFd7HdJatwBt7DhHbPNKNKh5JNLPaMpyZmcJTjx2Fkpb9J0eF8THRcq6go-2tQrB5vgTGT8Aje3P6gAPsUniBLkNCvQ5oGLnxUOf_0adeU0-cgvV_eF_RLR72s/s1498/Canada%2010.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="1498" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimYYvSxLZM-MTggd36a1a2FDGOmtG6ldQXP2Z8EDerwFCh8FmrwQ7BgURUXzUkJ8yCYurFd7HdJatwBt7DhHbPNKNKh5JNLPaMpyZmcJTjx2Fkpb9J0eF8THRcq6go-2tQrB5vgTGT8Aje3P6gAPsUniBLkNCvQ5oGLnxUOf_0adeU0-cgvV_eF_RLR72s/w640-h232/Canada%2010.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 27. Canada – excess deaths 2020–2023</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>USA</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The pattern of excess deaths shown in Figure 28 is similar to what we have seen in Canada. After peaks of more than 40% excess deaths, the excess still continues steadily at 10% above what is expected from previous experience.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGWjFTWU2UUa2U_UAdyY8dE2e5rXVdsB8ZA8AZ7mXKfEHVDwH_0Tg2Ju4N3F1G6QqsFKlHd1rNVxGbd5Tx15-8LrolYHDeEBhcFFkE-YOqVGhZY1kkgKzt07qU5n4wifoQPFB-Gp2Ng0HRQNzyAxhm2XWdVv2GII0IFsnlWPzna7gOFh3vE1urLWJ12smH/s1498/USA%2010.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="1498" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGWjFTWU2UUa2U_UAdyY8dE2e5rXVdsB8ZA8AZ7mXKfEHVDwH_0Tg2Ju4N3F1G6QqsFKlHd1rNVxGbd5Tx15-8LrolYHDeEBhcFFkE-YOqVGhZY1kkgKzt07qU5n4wifoQPFB-Gp2Ng0HRQNzyAxhm2XWdVv2GII0IFsnlWPzna7gOFh3vE1urLWJ12smH/w640-h232/USA%2010.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 28. USA – excess deaths 2020–2023</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Malaysia</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">From the far East we can see the example of Malaysia. Similar to Australia and New Zealand, there were few if any excess deaths in 2020, but an epidemic appeared in 2021 and it has not completely settled. It would appear to be something other than Covid-19. It coincided with the introduction of mRNA vaccinations. Deaths continue to be excessive, about 15% above previous average.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpa4Ap2OSbf-zmlh3Ehb-kBV4Eadd9IMjV-6xf7tljmU3L1CQp-6-ZbJCf-XcfGKVJqdci_VdUqGvxRdTe6p_MkzqiJOpNlDrEUrpemvrdaPzz0TH4LIDltGXJa3C_j6dKC9DYCYWgCSUpf2UBRBvyXocgfSgvLPY5s9EnjW6sSOUkpL4TMi1ycqxh3Waz/s1498/Malaysia%2010.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="1498" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpa4Ap2OSbf-zmlh3Ehb-kBV4Eadd9IMjV-6xf7tljmU3L1CQp-6-ZbJCf-XcfGKVJqdci_VdUqGvxRdTe6p_MkzqiJOpNlDrEUrpemvrdaPzz0TH4LIDltGXJa3C_j6dKC9DYCYWgCSUpf2UBRBvyXocgfSgvLPY5s9EnjW6sSOUkpL4TMi1ycqxh3Waz/w640-h232/Malaysia%2010.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 29. Malaysia – excess deaths 2020–2023</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>End of the pandemic?</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">As we have seen, we can only conclude that a pandemic is over when we see the compensatory reduction in the number of deaths. We have not yet seen this.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><br /></div><div><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Serious non-fatal illness</span></b></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Ed Dowd, US data analyst and insurance expert mentioned above, has brought to attention the increase of claims made to life and health insurance companies in the USA concerning the apparent epidemic of sudden deaths in the USA. The reasons for and mechanisms of these deaths have not been defined, and as in the UK and other countries, there has been no official acknowledgement. This book "counts the bodies" and describes the tragedies of the many young people dying far too early in their lives.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMMcCxJSeNxd1VtcuvxnnSImbFWusrDOoxmn1poKgyqJ-1PBPqobkbT_qo1sfReBKV8y1aqmMuwx5hb1duDh47mLgwRXksL_amC4xfn9hnlaoD9cH2ScnRzQcV5wAfBqkvDQFGGKUVzaOMfvnnjk44smqfP62aMB961KNPSEAnBop0cPJrjff0LqMF9h3H/s1004/Dowd.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1004" data-original-width="782" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMMcCxJSeNxd1VtcuvxnnSImbFWusrDOoxmn1poKgyqJ-1PBPqobkbT_qo1sfReBKV8y1aqmMuwx5hb1duDh47mLgwRXksL_amC4xfn9hnlaoD9cH2ScnRzQcV5wAfBqkvDQFGGKUVzaOMfvnnjk44smqfP62aMB961KNPSEAnBop0cPJrjff0LqMF9h3H/w311-h400/Dowd.jpeg" width="311" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 30. "Cause unknown", by Ed Dowd, 2023</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Dowd also extracts data from US insurance claims concerning disability resulting in absence from work. The data did not come through government agencies but from the insurance companies themselves. </span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We can see in Figures 31 and 32 the pattern of disability resulting in absence from work and claims for insurance. There is an obvious increase in 2022 and 2023, even more obvious in women than in men.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-lXqjYqX3fLbCx3IP22kLY2jdqmbyRMXWNFRmHY3NhgRh_f32IOd7250VJr0zt5fs_98B7yNn980SVwcL5CIXwdPEsYRqHyHg6YqopBgTqPfwbfLf8jp6x3tgIS_sLD7x8gEiLy5OpYjvU1sXlXy7-amgiE0Mvf1AqlWGU33RmhCTwt5R4c94qV7lInMZ/s1536/US%20disablity%20women.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="557" data-original-width="1536" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-lXqjYqX3fLbCx3IP22kLY2jdqmbyRMXWNFRmHY3NhgRh_f32IOd7250VJr0zt5fs_98B7yNn980SVwcL5CIXwdPEsYRqHyHg6YqopBgTqPfwbfLf8jp6x3tgIS_sLD7x8gEiLy5OpYjvU1sXlXy7-amgiE0Mvf1AqlWGU33RmhCTwt5R4c94qV7lInMZ/w640-h232/US%20disablity%20women.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 31. USA: insurance claims for sickness, men</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><br /></span><p></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR9BCPSt82kx1djvUzjB84ixjrSoPnUcGATK5xLR-GUIA4Kb2j2uU6mKbFG7iy-tvUxOKAkGy94dET925qIWatrCxR6fvUl4-MLDvgf8RdRwE3P445BNNJsqBKigOaEg0vQ3QiCjwuwVLdE7v9rTYQx5d8KnuURtxjPTR4UmSH0JP_brHb80Vf3SmpOGAZ/s1536/US%20disability%20men.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="606" data-original-width="1536" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR9BCPSt82kx1djvUzjB84ixjrSoPnUcGATK5xLR-GUIA4Kb2j2uU6mKbFG7iy-tvUxOKAkGy94dET925qIWatrCxR6fvUl4-MLDvgf8RdRwE3P445BNNJsqBKigOaEg0vQ3QiCjwuwVLdE7v9rTYQx5d8KnuURtxjPTR4UmSH0JP_brHb80Vf3SmpOGAZ/w640-h256/US%20disability%20men.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 32. USA: insurance claims for sickness, women</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The insurance companies are responsible for paying claims in excess of what they had expected, and this has become greater than the income from those at work. This will produce a financial crisis within the insurance industry.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Dowd also examined ONS data looking to see if there is a similar increase in disabling illness in the UK. There is. </span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In the UK there is National Insurance, administered by government agencies. The principle is the same, working people pay and when they are off work on account of illness they receive financial support. The government therefore has accurate records of the numbers of people receiving "sick pay". In current official language, it is called Personal Independence Payment (PIP). </span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqRDpP-7sNi_1b9Y-ORtNXTrp-vmVp8n2RypsmE-dYQxiFN4y_7BxUIgyBcus77LpNSYD4ag1AOMThRe6FOoIGFa8ZK0cdi5OiGb6KmwrkQ_VoRvIrV51JyWCI-9t5-Zt0hGoFhpIrVZqQUNu77djGcbiAjguVRql8kl2jiVZdb27B0Ir9N45jEO-FJuve/s2616/PIP.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1240" data-original-width="2616" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqRDpP-7sNi_1b9Y-ORtNXTrp-vmVp8n2RypsmE-dYQxiFN4y_7BxUIgyBcus77LpNSYD4ag1AOMThRe6FOoIGFa8ZK0cdi5OiGb6KmwrkQ_VoRvIrV51JyWCI-9t5-Zt0hGoFhpIrVZqQUNu77djGcbiAjguVRql8kl2jiVZdb27B0Ir9N45jEO-FJuve/w640-h304/PIP.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 33. UK: national insurance calims for sickness, 2016-2023</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In previous figures we have seen excess deaths appearing after the Covid-19 pandemic, that is in late 2021, 2022 and 2023 up to the present time.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> Now we see disabling illness, hopefully short-term and not long-term, but time will tell.</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Figure 33 also shows vaccinations, starting at the beginning of 2021. The association is remarkable but whether the illness epidemic is the result of vaccines cannot be concluded. Is there a plausible alternative explanation?</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;">We see indirectly the numbers of excess ill people by noticing the pressures on family doctors and hospitals. The Accident & Emergency departments are </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">overloaded, unable to cope with the numbers. <i>"The busiest ever day in the A&E ward",</i> and this was on June 15th 2023, the middle of the summer, but not excessively hot.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXId3BIppRYAgrU1TT1G8SstIlz8IRVKZASOa6WgCuuSTeJSEEvl2FCzmB5vdLFchqW1uv0B7yOxQMen-JrpC_egXjcTP-yhkiBeRcm6ndjXD8-OtCacoXOyp6KoH4SOL6CH-4hRkBBTHnWxUHKRplBW5pi7Ux5H9x-vt8Tm365A4oomj5YTIEwx9ERa1k/s4032/Lancs%20Tele.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXId3BIppRYAgrU1TT1G8SstIlz8IRVKZASOa6WgCuuSTeJSEEvl2FCzmB5vdLFchqW1uv0B7yOxQMen-JrpC_egXjcTP-yhkiBeRcm6ndjXD8-OtCacoXOyp6KoH4SOL6CH-4hRkBBTHnWxUHKRplBW5pi7Ux5H9x-vt8Tm365A4oomj5YTIEwx9ERa1k/w400-h300/Lancs%20Tele.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 34. My local newspaper, June 15th 2023.</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There are also long delays of several hours before a patient requiring admission can be transf</span><span style="font-family: arial;">erred to an appropriate inpatient ward.</span></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFZc50PSstr9nNlO8w5rTJ0XJvB6qMPq0Wxn8B1R9u5h3CUw6SBy9f5Wih5k03yALp4BlTR5QJycKSPY6mTr93kXAz1gc7mS8jmkUe2Cldbq84A2brdPNreXrB57yAOl0CIiraACYvdZWgoDVuENrg7Argqi6_bDJpZCDZZNQY6YX50ZSV4N1xjByThXO8/s1016/A&E%201.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1016" height="506" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFZc50PSstr9nNlO8w5rTJ0XJvB6qMPq0Wxn8B1R9u5h3CUw6SBy9f5Wih5k03yALp4BlTR5QJycKSPY6mTr93kXAz1gc7mS8jmkUe2Cldbq84A2brdPNreXrB57yAOl0CIiraACYvdZWgoDVuENrg7Argqi6_bDJpZCDZZNQY6YX50ZSV4N1xjByThXO8/w640-h506/A&E%201.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 35. UK numbers of Emergency patients waiting for transfer to a ward</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We can see in Figure 35 that this has been a feature since the end of 2021.</span><p></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The "Debate"</b></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Those who raise alarms about possible vaccine damage are called "antivaxers", and there is much pressure to silence them.</span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-IBohzN3yhuB_xLye9B7k7IODkzGEtiKS3KB51ACTNFoGdFtuN44DkvznC3MsQWVEx4T_ELtaIBC6srkbE20KyFxev9ypzYMFJ1_-chmJ0KyfBHSiNOHVGIZSXECMsT3DMhXXwomJvHnvKhDQdwTQ8BmwYJFM2lizxSvlVebCVmDp3kqbLKnzDw7p7IQ7/s1424/Antivaxers.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="616" data-original-width="1424" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-IBohzN3yhuB_xLye9B7k7IODkzGEtiKS3KB51ACTNFoGdFtuN44DkvznC3MsQWVEx4T_ELtaIBC6srkbE20KyFxev9ypzYMFJ1_-chmJ0KyfBHSiNOHVGIZSXECMsT3DMhXXwomJvHnvKhDQdwTQ8BmwYJFM2lizxSvlVebCVmDp3kqbLKnzDw7p7IQ7/w400-h174/Antivaxers.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 36. UK: war against </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>anti-vaxers</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;">And also more direct action in social media against "anti-vaxers".</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbENgmfp8FM-jE6I627bn8eWRwjjewpR4nOaewdvKlfMkF9h8_M9Mue90ZnmZGeoHvma6wgZDAFSElbYhHrRzRcmzk3l8q_z4zIvTXG1HoR17VtlRyuNAJNoXJ_7ReIiIUWTU7NVuGOz9xw8NchZwvgayLOGnNv8X4Xu71HWyDXTKDKE8gQrKLTjGMEKYC/s1146/Crush%20antivaxers.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1146" data-original-width="1016" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbENgmfp8FM-jE6I627bn8eWRwjjewpR4nOaewdvKlfMkF9h8_M9Mue90ZnmZGeoHvma6wgZDAFSElbYhHrRzRcmzk3l8q_z4zIvTXG1HoR17VtlRyuNAJNoXJ_7ReIiIUWTU7NVuGOz9xw8NchZwvgayLOGnNv8X4Xu71HWyDXTKDKE8gQrKLTjGMEKYC/w356-h400/Crush%20antivaxers.png" width="356" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 37. "Not to resist government mandates".</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large; font-variant-caps: normal;"><i>"Not to resist government mandates"</i></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"> is chilling.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;">There is no debate concerning the pathological mechanism and cause of excess deaths and serious illness, and suspicions of a causative role of vaccines is constantly suppressed. In the UK we can see the attendance in the House of Commons when time was given for a short debate on possible vaccine damage. Hardly an inspiring event, and </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">YouTube showed a clip of members of parliament being actively sent out of the chamber. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgalZ7sAUC2RyBvraMDDiu_aL36mgivh7TCIpY8ZAAn26WLzocYLNKe6RmpXxEmpOV0o_UAYeM3FRBQ16WEWUJct8SV58t3QABF1Mr7M5hafVJF9Xfh6XuYlCBSWE_7jSDHTHARHqn_Q-uDpT63EwlgdptR6UYA3bNWlXbdRd2qlghq-_Y3z8RaqyVzcmGA/s1362/Parliament.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1362" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgalZ7sAUC2RyBvraMDDiu_aL36mgivh7TCIpY8ZAAn26WLzocYLNKe6RmpXxEmpOV0o_UAYeM3FRBQ16WEWUJct8SV58t3QABF1Mr7M5hafVJF9Xfh6XuYlCBSWE_7jSDHTHARHqn_Q-uDpT63EwlgdptR6UYA3bNWlXbdRd2qlghq-_Y3z8RaqyVzcmGA/w400-h216/Parliament.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 38. UK: </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>House of Commons debate on possible vaccination damage</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">After more than 20 attempts, Andrew Brigden, a UK member of parliament, was granted an adjournment debate, late on a Friday afternoon. It took place on Friday October 20th. On this occasion there were about 20 members of parliament present. He gave a convincing presentation on the important topic of excess deaths, and this was followed by a feeble response from a junior government minister.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQAIk0CxjeODZZ4RHu-Y4lhfPYYEIUZculpKMtbuopI3CfAyRLZlyNIab3buIq-ZkElg7_aCs72gSH1hpW9Lfmdz3MUpbV3bcqfBMSIZ-R-ThkfWi5QMI-ZtzogqS82GyfIi491yCl0x4nhPDtbxQegxHuJW1ASKkYFSCjPCm8p19QKLcMM3LNSow8PK74/s852/Andrew%20Brigden.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="784" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQAIk0CxjeODZZ4RHu-Y4lhfPYYEIUZculpKMtbuopI3CfAyRLZlyNIab3buIq-ZkElg7_aCs72gSH1hpW9Lfmdz3MUpbV3bcqfBMSIZ-R-ThkfWi5QMI-ZtzogqS82GyfIi491yCl0x4nhPDtbxQegxHuJW1ASKkYFSCjPCm8p19QKLcMM3LNSow8PK74/s320/Andrew%20Brigden.png" width="294" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Figure 39. Andrew Brigden MP</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The debate is published in the Parliamentary <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2023-10-20/debates/69C5A514-9A04-4ED7-B56B-61A3D40E3226/TrendsInExcessDeaths">Hansard</a>, and it is available to the public. There is also a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97qRUqYLNu0">YouTube of the debate</a>, presented by John Campbell.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJkOGOftYTarnyyKpVnkYAcZRy-BZrxiO75-W5LjI2TlWPEVWWx2QhsB2d4y7sIeeieK8qsi0irbzaWSM4-clE_oFhQcfMEo4pcOxGitjcSBNbjvOLMisJ-gf6EyOUToHzbFIDGQuWV0Y7iKGYCS2bDl8q6AvnmjI669P_LYnWa4CmNvaNrMUMNwJR0ybo/s2090/Hansard.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="896" data-original-width="2090" height="173" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJkOGOftYTarnyyKpVnkYAcZRy-BZrxiO75-W5LjI2TlWPEVWWx2QhsB2d4y7sIeeieK8qsi0irbzaWSM4-clE_oFhQcfMEo4pcOxGitjcSBNbjvOLMisJ-gf6EyOUToHzbFIDGQuWV0Y7iKGYCS2bDl8q6AvnmjI669P_LYnWa4CmNvaNrMUMNwJR0ybo/w400-h173/Hansard.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 40. UK: Hansard report, </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>House of Commons debate on excess deaths</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The parliament of Australia made a decision concerning alleged vaccine damaged citizens.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggeivoJa_oLxaozgeTnpe4PYNL4Imk6Z1_xBObtxwllJkqAvPbbUHTAHhB_3f6oUdxcE3sDyQN1m11r3PuuMRJBymdVRr7tiwfl2KiZAqkfNI7kLSc1EsfHjemH_ajqo9ZUpWFMFq-_s7Tv3e8tJY0WdcuFdq6id_tnKnSKra8cug9V4Ul_4RBLdzvPIP3/s1392/Australia%20senate.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1356" data-original-width="1392" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggeivoJa_oLxaozgeTnpe4PYNL4Imk6Z1_xBObtxwllJkqAvPbbUHTAHhB_3f6oUdxcE3sDyQN1m11r3PuuMRJBymdVRr7tiwfl2KiZAqkfNI7kLSc1EsfHjemH_ajqo9ZUpWFMFq-_s7Tv3e8tJY0WdcuFdq6id_tnKnSKra8cug9V4Ul_4RBLdzvPIP3/s320/Australia%20senate.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 41. Australia: Senate approach to</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><b> possible vaccination damage</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The "victims" were claimants, but investigation was denied. Hardly transparency.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">But the UK government did accept an increase of "sick leave" to a 10 year high, and proposed an answer. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlAj1i7hWUpwYLQuKisPw1G53nr1zQLvzxqPoYkiQ5BefpWMJ_z6JvIcfXETOenjEZoNYyYxp2zZv0F6AHsMfU4iWTtDwO8AuA46RDDZ8-2ShUPtYyPFR6qTJTCnVgsAfzB3UFRVkq-6QMXK4jsR3QPfhDgbgtdjtC0DMjeuk74hEFQukaVRsItmUl2dKp/s598/Stress.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="200" data-original-width="598" height="135" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlAj1i7hWUpwYLQuKisPw1G53nr1zQLvzxqPoYkiQ5BefpWMJ_z6JvIcfXETOenjEZoNYyYxp2zZv0F6AHsMfU4iWTtDwO8AuA46RDDZ8-2ShUPtYyPFR6qTJTCnVgsAfzB3UFRVkq-6QMXK4jsR3QPfhDgbgtdjtC0DMjeuk74hEFQukaVRsItmUl2dKp/w400-h135/Stress.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 42. UK: sick leave due to stress?</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There had to some explanation to counter suspicions of vaccination damage. "Stress" is the old stand-by to explaining illness, but it is difficult to define and impossible to measure.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The obviously important policy was to keep the vaccination show on the road. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW4qg1Zl9G_SDEMrJShBtCdBBd9JR-K9AcyzfVaDfJYHeuuJpDZiXPRPndkotBKJHg9e4Z1Hcqj9hbo_PAWdHKGEv9mbMZ1JcEPCZUpVpbTCYb9h8_rrW92bOpTg_7McIl3pRTPMhmFyB7DDT95ytSO6X1BZLicVsYSO3ASk-7jqLko0ZlxRBMrTsEFAvd/s956/Pfizer.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="936" data-original-width="956" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW4qg1Zl9G_SDEMrJShBtCdBBd9JR-K9AcyzfVaDfJYHeuuJpDZiXPRPndkotBKJHg9e4Z1Hcqj9hbo_PAWdHKGEv9mbMZ1JcEPCZUpVpbTCYb9h8_rrW92bOpTg_7McIl3pRTPMhmFyB7DDT95ytSO6X1BZLicVsYSO3ASk-7jqLko0ZlxRBMrTsEFAvd/s320/Pfizer.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">Figure 43. UK: Pfizer images to promote vaccinations in 2023</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Pfizer led the way with the Marvel characters. There is no time for reflection, despite obvious concerns, and no explanation of or interest in the second pandemic.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Could it be that multiple vaccinations might be the cause of the second pandemic, or might there be another credible possibility? Not hot weather or stress, but perhaps something that has a strong scientific foundation. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Vitamin D and the Second Pandemic</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Remember that an epidemic occurs in one country or one continent. When it occurs in all continents (except Antarctica) it is called a pandemic.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We have seen above that the second pandemic is a true pandemic. The strange thing is that an epidemic or pandemic is usually due to a specific disease or micro-organism, for example Covid-19. This is not the case with the second pandemic of the present decade. The pandemic is an excess of disabling illness and death in all ages, without a defined disease. </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Without an accurate official count, there appears to be several diseases that are in excess. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The one that is officially accepted is myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle. It is usually the result of a virus, but the mechanism of the </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">relationship to mRNA vaccination is not clear. The cardiac arrests that have occurred are sometimes reversed by prompt defibrillation, but many are fatal. There is usually no record of pre-existing heart disease.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There is also an increase of neurological disabling illness, such as Guillan-Barré syndrome, a paralytic neuropathy, and facial palsy. There is an increase in deaths from liver cirrhosis, not easy to understand. There is also a curious reduction of deaths from respiratory disease. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There are convincing reports of an increase in cancer deaths, with activation of cancer in remission, and what have been called "turbo-cancers", very rapidly progressive. This subject has been brought to attention by Angus Dalgliesh, professor of oncology at St George's Hospital Medical School, London. He is a medical practitioner and scientist with a long and distinguished career. He has great experience and a great deal of knowledge to call upon. He has been interviewed at length by Dr John Campbell, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnJ5T1Enwq4&t=12s">the interview is available on YouTube.</a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is as though there is something fundamental that is occurring, that increases susceptibility to a number of diseases, fatal or not. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There is a parallel and that is AIDS, in which T-cell immunity is suppressed leading to the development of a number of unusual and fatal infections and malignancies. it has been suggested in Australia that this is happening now, what we might call VAIDS, vaccine induced acquired immune deficiency syndrome.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxg3y9bH4x5p8dMuQIEIgvRFI_coZY88C_foo4JlzQytKsLAMC5LjOXFnwWgxm2idUCuSwhJrdnJb-ZKnogy85aD64lKJRUTq7qnjyWa2sDNPdlKYFEsxu-jDbxgEwQvaBQVZSL3rhh13eFmMkzu33d_MQfiRnQX7GLu9NGwEQsvm7djGLFElYv87-WZFX/s920/Australia%20infections.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="329" data-original-width="920" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxg3y9bH4x5p8dMuQIEIgvRFI_coZY88C_foo4JlzQytKsLAMC5LjOXFnwWgxm2idUCuSwhJrdnJb-ZKnogy85aD64lKJRUTq7qnjyWa2sDNPdlKYFEsxu-jDbxgEwQvaBQVZSL3rhh13eFmMkzu33d_MQfiRnQX7GLu9NGwEQsvm7djGLFElYv87-WZFX/w640-h229/Australia%20infections.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 44. mRNA vaccines damage immunity, from Australia</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is possible that vitamin D deficiency is driving the immune deficiency, as we know that vitamin D is essential for defensive immunity and is a powerful stimulator of the vitally important T-cells.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">It was just on September 22nd 2023 the the UK Government released the information that during 2023 the incidence of tuberculosis, TB, has increased. This is likely to be the result of depressed immunity, especially T-cells, as has been a major feature of AIDS. Depression of immunity at the present time is likely to be a result of repeated mRNA vaccinations.</p><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPXFRbA1XRaNRb1NueU9oYzx2vSBG6hG1lMrc1RC46XOO17l1epxpdEeGIEBoiGA1XrEgZKctU4MiyM8BRB2MCSRvnvwEZd8BoKRkD6yX9VC7RTghg4eKUCtW5Gk3D12GKCFYg-EK4Wh6cozOlEk4ucudOKfo9OAxRwslW_aANtbs7M4EjVn-Qxrjw1LW8/s1518/TB.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1226" data-original-width="1518" height="520" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPXFRbA1XRaNRb1NueU9oYzx2vSBG6hG1lMrc1RC46XOO17l1epxpdEeGIEBoiGA1XrEgZKctU4MiyM8BRB2MCSRvnvwEZd8BoKRkD6yX9VC7RTghg4eKUCtW5Gk3D12GKCFYg-EK4Wh6cozOlEk4ucudOKfo9OAxRwslW_aANtbs7M4EjVn-Qxrjw1LW8/w640-h520/TB.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Figure 45. Increasing incidence of TB in the UK</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><br /></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> I have indicated previously that in the process of defensive immunity a molecule of vitamin D, in its activated form 1,25(OH)D, can be used only once, and then it is inactivated. With repeated infections, or vaccinations (which simulate infections so as to produce an immune response) the body supplies of vitamin D will become depleted. The result will be susceptibility to infections and malignancies.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEittVDuW2CZaiLxxLJ94w-b9N5qF-YIF8T0QULv0GiOfcxXzf89vrlp4GhjZX5mFVbl9OfHnmMroUHS1bplneGLOyl5PhsY9VDNGm4-l5IXJ9vYJ_1nJ2swTtpFMDb0GcAm_QcjeiF9Ei-wVQeczx35Ia97UXfpHvSC_UNgjtyEZUh-LkOG-a2XnpHDOQhZ/s1106/Vax.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1106" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEittVDuW2CZaiLxxLJ94w-b9N5qF-YIF8T0QULv0GiOfcxXzf89vrlp4GhjZX5mFVbl9OfHnmMroUHS1bplneGLOyl5PhsY9VDNGm4-l5IXJ9vYJ_1nJ2swTtpFMDb0GcAm_QcjeiF9Ei-wVQeczx35Ia97UXfpHvSC_UNgjtyEZUh-LkOG-a2XnpHDOQhZ/w400-h297/Vax.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">Figure 46. Hypothetical effect on multiple vaccinations on blood levels of vitamin D</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">We can see in Figure 46 that the person represented by the blue line starts with a good blood level of vitamin D in its circulating form 25(OH)D, 40ng/ml, 100nmol/L. Despite repeated depletion by immune challenge, this person manages to maintain a blood level above the danger level of 10ng/ml, 50nmol/L.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The person represented by the green line starts of with a low blood level of only 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L, and repeated immune challenges, Covid-19 or vaccinations, soon cause very serious depletion of vitamin D to a level at which fatal illness would be inevitable.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The way to avoid this is to have a constant and adequate supply of vitamin D to maintain a good defensive blood level.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy1qOj-AdfL2EkLNjJkkyuiKQJLY6GQUEyLQJVHbBST-sZKUyU_YmSwIF5HzWfpP312b_3L45fhSoAOxNYwWJs1A0gAZ0V-dylZe5v9qbEMqYmB_1Oj9SKCeZOCRc0TK9d_0AkxTHxRT-OncuYer20RzlUoX6EgOH8KREOCddyrD3jRU2weMD8TrrRtlzs/s1106/Vax%20+%20D.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1106" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy1qOj-AdfL2EkLNjJkkyuiKQJLY6GQUEyLQJVHbBST-sZKUyU_YmSwIF5HzWfpP312b_3L45fhSoAOxNYwWJs1A0gAZ0V-dylZe5v9qbEMqYmB_1Oj9SKCeZOCRc0TK9d_0AkxTHxRT-OncuYer20RzlUoX6EgOH8KREOCddyrD3jRU2weMD8TrrRtlzs/w400-h297/Vax%20+%20D.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">Figure 47. Benefit from vitamin D supplement</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">In Figure 47 the blue line person is receiving a continuous supplement of vitamin D, and so the depletion following infection or vaccination is rapidly corrected. A good blood level of vitamin D is maintained. The green line person without the vitamin D supplement does not have a good future.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This is a theoretical model but perfectly credible. Appropriate research to confirm or refute the suggestion could easily have been undertaken during the Covid-19 pandemic, but to my knowledge the perhaps unique opportunity has been missed.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">There is no official acknowledgment of the value of vitamin D in defensive immunity, despite the knowledge from forty years of research plus a wealth of evidence accumulated during the Covid-19 pandemic.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This can only be regarded as serious neglect, with many lives lost as a consequence.</div><br /> </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-38594458498852267682023-06-01T04:05:00.002-07:002023-06-02T05:33:46.372-07:00 2023 – a retrospective of vitamin D<p><span style="font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Arial;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDJ5B1UOEyUXNyy-1uBhAaJ0P1ZkRbqx0o73mtYI8niWeTkcD_A2uGbzzb6nVyJm9KwR9fuGAuVskp_cUHD5G0f36YNAsq5lF0h8D0ar3nJZIuMaQOsInK-jTNqsoCa63Cb2cURJMbO2QAaFeNnK5APfrI3VQ24vjWya0h-eoITP2erQGDL8DOxlHjrg/s4032/IMG_1848.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDJ5B1UOEyUXNyy-1uBhAaJ0P1ZkRbqx0o73mtYI8niWeTkcD_A2uGbzzb6nVyJm9KwR9fuGAuVskp_cUHD5G0f36YNAsq5lF0h8D0ar3nJZIuMaQOsInK-jTNqsoCa63Cb2cURJMbO2QAaFeNnK5APfrI3VQ24vjWya0h-eoITP2erQGDL8DOxlHjrg/w400-h300/IMG_1848.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">My garden today</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: Arial;"><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">We are now in the late Spring of 2023. This is my first Blog post of this year, and it had been uncompleted for a few months. I must say that I have been both disappointed and disheartened at the very negative attitude of our medical and political leaders in respect of Vitamin D and natural immunity. But there is a future to think of, and perhaps the importance of Vitamin D will be revealed to the population in the not too distant future.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">When the pandemic of Covid-19 arrived in Europe in early 2020, we knew that it would be essential to optimise natural defensive immunity of the population. Although in 1968-69 we had to let the pandemic of "Hong Kong" flu take its course, fifty years later we had accumulated a great deal of research knowledge. In 2020 we knew how to optimise defensive immunity. We anticipated that as a result of the new knowledge and the correction of widespread Vitamin D deficiency, the deaths from Covid-19 would be very many fewer than during Hong Kong flu pandemic. This has turned out not to be the case: there were thought to have been about 50,000 Hong Kong flu deaths in 1968–69, but as of May 27th 2023 Worldometer reports 225,324 Covid-19 deaths in the UK.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">By "we" I mean those people fortunate to have had a background in and knowledge of medical science. I was a young doctor, the resident medical officer (RMO) of the Manchester Royal Infirmary in 1968-69, and I remember the pandemic very clearly. I subsequently worked as a general internal physician and gastroenterologist in East Lancashire, but I absorbed the new knowledge of the vital importance of Vitamin D in activating defensive immunity. I was also aware of the disturbing extent of Vitamin D deficiency, especially among Black African and South Asian ethnic groups in the UK. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">It turned out to be a naive assumption of mine that in 2020 public health and medical services would want to provide the very best of preventative medicine and treatment of the sick. The knowledge of the importance of Vitamin D was readily available, and it must have been known to public health doctors and the senior medical advisors of government. I was just an ordinary physician in an ordinary hospital in ordinary Lancashire, but as I had been able to absorb the medical-scientific information, surely much more important physicians than I must also have absorbed it. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">Perhaps I seriously underestimated the ignorance of medical scientists who should have known more than I knew. The alternative view is that they deliberately ignored their existing knowledge of the importance of Vitamin D, and deliberately avoided reporting on the new knowledge that appeared during the pandemic.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Pre-pandemic knowledge</span></b></p>
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<p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Vitamin D had been identified about one hundred years ago, initially through its evolutionary late function of bone maturation. Deficiency of vitamin D was demonstrated to be the cause of rickets in young children, the result of serious atmospheric pollution together with an increasingly indoor life during the industrial revolution. Observation led to the recognition that rickets could be cured by removal of the children from the polluted industrial cities to the alpine villages of Austria, or to the coastal fishing villages of Scotland. The former provided vitamin D production by the action of the sun on the skin, the latter also by the consumption of oily fish, which obtain vitamin D from the oceanic food chain starting in plankton.</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-size: large;">It is worth remembering that plankton evolved 1.5 billion years ago, but living at the surface of the oceans they were vulnerable to damage and death from solar UV radiation. They evolved two defensive mechanisms. One was diurnal vertical migration, in which they would sink to a protective depth during the day and rise to the surface during the night, this becoming a genetically controlled process. </span></p><p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-size: large;">The second protection became the synthesis of the oil molecule 7-dehydrocholesterol, abbreviated as 7-DHC. The important characteristic of 7-DHC is that it absorbs UV energy wavelength 290–315 nm, using the energy to break a specify bond in the molecule rather than it producing heat and radiation damage to the plankton. This sunscreen function is very effective. The by-product of the chemical change is a derivative molecule called cholecalciferol, that we generally know as vitamin D.</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Plankton had no use for vitamin D, and it remained a molecule without a function for one billion years. During this important era, evolution was active in producing immunity, essential for further developments of animal life. Ultimately vitamin D gained a function in activating the new immunity cascade, and this was vital to protect against damage from pre-existing bacteria and viruses. The more complex forms of animal life that were to appear during the Cambrian explosion, the "biological big bang", 500 million years ago required this defensive immunity for survival. Fortunately for a fictitious episode of humankind, the invaders in HG Wells’ "War of the Worlds" did not have the benefit of this immune mechanism and they soon succumbed to the micro-organisms with which we share this planet.</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-size: large;">To condense a complex process, vitamin D acquired directly from solar UV acting on 7-DHC in our skin, or indirectly by mouth, is not biologically active. It passes in the blood-stream to the liver where a slow process takes place adding a hydroxyl (-OH) group to the molecule. It then returns to the blood as 25(OH)D, also known as calcifediol or calcidiol, and it circulates as a reservoir ready for use when it is needed. At times of microbiological challenge, the cells of immunity, various immunocytes, take up 25(OH)D from the circulation and convert it by the addition of another -OH group into 1,25(OH)D, also known as calcitriol. This is the active form, which unlocks the complex vitamin D receptor (VDR) molecule, and as a result activates the genes that control the escalation of defensive immunity. An adequate blood level of 25(OH)D is essential for immunity to be maximal and maintained.</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-size: large;">The slow process of the conversion of vitamin to into 25(OH)D, calcifediol, in the liver is satisfactory under normal circumstances. It can take up to two weeks for a single dose of vitamin D to reach a peak of 25(OH)D in the blood, but in nature it is a continuous process, at least during the summer months. However, if the part-activated 25(OH)D, calcifediol, is given by mouth, it does not require the liver hydroxylation stage and it reaches a high (normal) blood level after about two hours. This was first reported by Dr TCB Stamp of University College Hospital London in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(74)91553-0/fulltext"><i>The Lancet</i> July 20 1974</a> It was therefore </span><span style="font-size: large;">known in advance of the pandemic and we have seen its remarkable importance in clinical studies from Spain, but no clinical use in the UK and other countries.</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-size: large;">It had also been established that certain groups within our population, those living closer to the North Pole than to the Equator, are at particular risk of vitamin D deficiency, and thus of sub-optimal immunity. These are in particular citizens whose ethnic origin is in Africa and the Caribbean, or in South Asia, people with a dark skin that is inefficient at producing vitamin D. The pigment melanin in the skin is protective against radiation damage. It absorbs solar UV, which is therefore not available to the substrate 7-DHC. Also vulnerable are the elderly, whose dry skin does not synthesise sufficient 7-DHC to allow production of adequate amounts of vitamin D. Another group vulnerable to serious vitamin D deficiency are people who avoid exposure of the skin to the sun, usually for religious reasons. Finally the obese, in whom the oil vitamin D becomes trapped in the fat cells of the body.</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-size: large;">These facts were known, and it was predicted that these groups would be particularly prone to the serious and perhaps fatal effects of the new virus responsible for Covid-19, to which we had no historical or inherited immunity. There was a way of helping people with an ethnic dark skin, the elderly, and the obese, and those who avoided the sun. It would have been possible to contact and provide them with vitamin D supplement, a process that was shown to be feasible in a study by <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2022/08/covd-19-vitamin-d-uk-covidence-clinical.html">Professor Adrian Martineau</a>. It would however have been much quicker to assume vitamin D deficiency (known to be widespread) and to correct it with a supplement in a dose that would be effective in the deficient but of no danger to those not deficient.</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>In practice</span><span>, for reasons that are obscure,</span><span> this did not happen. It was a callous denial of knowledge by public health bodies and medical organisations. When people developed Covid-19 symptoms and tested to be positive, they were told to go home and then to send for an ambulance only if they had difficulty breathing. How different the outcome might have been if the positive test and been followed by a single dose of vitamin D 100,000 units, a one month supply. Blood test for vitamin D level could also have been performed. The neglect of people with early proven Covid-19 can be viewed as criminal negligence of those responsible for public health.</span></span></p><p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-size: large;">But despite official disinterest or dismissal, clinical research into vitamin D and Covid-19 was undertaken in many parts of the world.</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Clinical Research, 2020 to 2022</span></b></p>
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<p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Clinical research, like all scientific research, starts with an observation.The next stage is that the observation must be reproduced, and by others. The observation is usually two variable characters that appear to be associated. This association must be consistent, with other of Sir Austin Bradford Hill's criteria of causation. We need to remind ourselves of these, as they are so important,</span></p><p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-size: large;">.</span></p><blockquote style="border: medium; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px; text-align: left;"></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Strength of association</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Consistency</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Specificity</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Temporality</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Biological gradient</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Plausibility</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Coherence</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Experiment</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Analogy</b></span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Reversibility (not always possible)</b></span></li></ol><p></p></blockquote><p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I drew attention to Hill's Criteria in <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-demonstration-of.html">November 2020</a>, demonstrating that they were fulfilled in respect of a causative role of vitamin D deficiency in Covid-19. Strictly speaking, vitamin D deficiency is not "the cause" of the disease but it is a factor that increases susceptibility to the disease, by disabling immunity. This important because a disease or an injury is generally a product of cause and susceptibility. Serious or fatal forms of the microbial diseases tuberculosis and Covid-19 are due to a combination of the specific micro-organism,</span><span style="font-size: large;"> and the susceptibility factor of inadequate blood levels of vitamin D. AIDS also makes those affected susceptible to a variety of infections as a result of suppressed immunity.</span></p><p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">In a similar way death from a road traffic accident is directly the result of trauma but also perhaps a susceptibility factor of a high level of alcohol in the blood. If government or public health </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">officials want to reduce the number of deaths from road traffic accidents they must minimise susceptiblity factors.</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;"> There is an enforced maximum allowed blood level of alcohol in car drivers. Public health officials might similarly be expected to demand a minimum blood level of vitamin D, as a way of reducing susceptibility to microbial diseases. It is not happening, in a way that is as negligent as would be ignoring blood levels of alcohol in car drivers.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><br /></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">We can note at present that lessons have not been learned by our medical officials. For example in the <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/381/bmj.p1001">British Medical Journal of May 13 2023</a> contained an article <i>"What is the future for covid drugs and treatments?"</i> There was no mention of optimising natural immunity by correction of vitamin D deficiency.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">However not all of clinicial medicine in the UK has been asleep. Supplementation of the population with vitamin D has improved during the pandemic, especially in ethnic minority groups, thanks to the initiatives of individual general medical practitioners, acting independently of government and WHO guidelines.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><br /></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">During the pandemic, which is now officially at an end, I have </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">reviewed 38 papers concerning the benefits of vitamin D in the prevention and treatment of Covid-19. I will present condensed forms of the reviews, but in subsequent Blog posts. </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">A new book is about to be available:</span></p><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwHYUnZd9lHUS8bHMx1tjIbffK-6HM4BmJzjFzgSiQMN2vhoWkGoujDPfDkBUKEq_X7TLl7Ic8y3k641bUDBV6woUW9tkJg6q3m9mFSm03VPn7gvw11Tkgj8PJbyUuzbw5H7a6YH24E6lI9c1WDqsiczhxizH2bHagOhbt3GnCjN3BkwhFRZIHRvzCPQ/s1060/Screenshot%202023-05-19%20at%2016.30.58.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="710" data-original-width="1060" height="269" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwHYUnZd9lHUS8bHMx1tjIbffK-6HM4BmJzjFzgSiQMN2vhoWkGoujDPfDkBUKEq_X7TLl7Ic8y3k641bUDBV6woUW9tkJg6q3m9mFSm03VPn7gvw11Tkgj8PJbyUuzbw5H7a6YH24E6lI9c1WDqsiczhxizH2bHagOhbt3GnCjN3BkwhFRZIHRvzCPQ/w400-h269/Screenshot%202023-05-19%20at%2016.30.58.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><br /></p><div><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px;"><br /></p>
<p style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 3px; min-height: 14px;"><br /></p></div>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-74835338642527203972022-11-28T01:54:00.002-08:002022-12-15T07:19:40.234-08:00Covid-19 & VItamin D: So much evidence of benefit, now from the USA<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoTlC0pYjkrdiX4_TwPqR20PCIGr6wFnx_wXlaF55T1_3hGA7_pyAnJzlo1gg6nb9YbNWyPoOfjNA78ThkNWesh4kuz2qqWhbT4685aNq9gYcM78nTpKvcLT61XHCUMvAWaLsMGiRzioGPHpBX-Acd23wIIeSiitK08E0cYVApr0QYcrKFbmBS2KrNvA/s948/Screenshot%202022-11-26%20at%2008.53.00.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="462" data-original-width="948" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoTlC0pYjkrdiX4_TwPqR20PCIGr6wFnx_wXlaF55T1_3hGA7_pyAnJzlo1gg6nb9YbNWyPoOfjNA78ThkNWesh4kuz2qqWhbT4685aNq9gYcM78nTpKvcLT61XHCUMvAWaLsMGiRzioGPHpBX-Acd23wIIeSiitK08E0cYVApr0QYcrKFbmBS2KrNvA/s320/Screenshot%202022-11-26%20at%2008.53.00.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">When the pandemic of Covid-19 emerged two years ago, those medical scientists with a knowledge of the importance of defensive immunity realised that the most immediate and important action must be the correction of Vitamin D deficiency, which is found in the majority of the population. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Research during the previous forty years had worked out the details of the escalation of defensive immunity in response to infection, information that was not available in the previuos major pandemics of infuenza. The new information involved the vital role of Vitamin D, in its activated form 1,25(OH)D. It was also known that Vitamin D deficiency is very common in the UK and other European countries. It had been established that Vitamin D deficiency is particularly common and severe in certain groups such as the elderly, the obese, people with diabetes or malignancy, and people of South Asian and Black African ethnicity living in Europe. <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/02/covid-19-vitamin-d-disappearance-of.html">All such groups had a high mortality rate from Covid-19.</a></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Despite advice from independent scientists, those not employed directly by governments, <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/10/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-nice-fails-us.html">Vitamin D was ignored</a>. The government policies in the US and UK (and elsewhere) were for vaccines to be developed to control Covid-19 infections and for no natural preventative or known pharmaceutical interventions to be considered. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Deaths from Covid-19</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It was not long before Covid-19 caused large numbers of deaths, but those who had died had been offered no immunological protection. Medical scientists who knew of the importance of vitamin D deficiency at this time of pandemic brought this to national attention, but they were ignored. Our political, medical, and public health leaders denied the importance of Vitamin D in the process of immunity. We were perpetually told that there was no evidence that Vitamin D would help in the treatment of Covid-19. Of course there was no specific evidence for the simple reason that the virus was new. We could say the same about vaccines.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">But there was good evidence that optimisation of immunity would be an advantage in face of a pandemic, and that Vitamin D is vital for that optimisation. I have pointed out <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/09/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-time-for-action.html">Pascal's Wager</a>, that in the absence of conclusive information (eg the existence of God, or the benfit of Vitamin D in Covid-19) it is important to take the line of least damage and maximum potential benefit. The potential benefit of Vitamin D is far greater than any significant disadvantage, as judged by experience gained during many decades of use. After all, the idea would be to correct deficiency of a natural vitamin/hormone, not to introduce a new and barely-tested medicine.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The denial of VItamin D</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Has it been ignorance or ignoring?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Our national officials continued to deny the potential benefits of Vitamin D. They continued to advise witholding VItamin D for immunity optimisation until "proof" of benefit had been demonstrated in a randomised controlled trial (RCT). They seemed to be unaware of the meaning of <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-demonstration-of.html">"proof"</a>, and unaware of the serious limitations of an RCT (cost, ethics, logistics). It was obvious that there would be many Covid-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths while an RCT would be planned, undertaken, analysed, published, and debated. The realisation of emergency was demonstrated by the introduction of injected mRNA (aka vaccination) given after only rudimentary clinical testing, but </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">natural Vitamin D </span><span style="font-family: arial;">cheap, safe, and readily available was not allowed.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span><span><span style="font-family: arial;">From May onwards</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> in 2020 nature provided a predictable respite from Covid-19 as the result of the natural summer-time production of Vitamin D, but even this was not officially recognised. Was it ignorance or deliberate ignoring of Vitamin D? O</span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">ur medical-scientific leaders</span><span><span style="font-family: arial;"> should not have been ignorant of Vitamin D and its importance in immunity</span><span style="font-family: arial;">, but supression of that information was essential for the emergency use authorisation (EUA) that would allow the release of new and barely tested "vaccines".</span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As the pandemic progressed we received a great deal of <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/12/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-strong-evidence.html">information</a> concerning the importance of low blood levels of vitamin D in the devlopment of critical and fatal Covid-19, protection by good blood levels (40–50 ng/ml, 100-125nmol/L). The evidence in favour of an </span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">important and readily available role for vitamin D in safely minimising the impact of the pandemic has been consistently ignored or suppressed.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Information concerning the importance of vitamin D has continied to accumulate, recently from <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2022/09/covid-19-vitamin-d-rct-benefit-in.html">Belgium and Mexico</a>, and most recently from the USA.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Evidence for the USA</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Important evidence became available on November 12th 2022. The study came from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health network in the USA. It</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> was a retrospective cohort study, with the </span><span><span style="font-family: arial;">title </span><b style="font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-24053-4">"Association between vitamin D supplementation and COVID-19 infection and mortality"</a>. </b><span style="font-family: arial;">The authors were from a variety of important medical and university institutions in the USA.</span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">The study identified the records of veterans of the </span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">US armed forces, who had blood tests and/or prescriptions for vitamin D between January 1st 2019 and December 31st 2020, which is before vaccines were introduced. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">34,710 had received a prescription for vitamin D2 (of fungal origin) and 220,265 had received a prescription for vitamin D3 (of animal origin, usually from the oils of sheep's wool). </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">407,860 controls were identified (no vitamin D supplement taken).</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Th</span><span style="font-family: arial;">e study objectives were to calculate the time to Covid-19 infection, and the mortality within 30 days of infection.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">For the purpose of the study 33,216 subjects </span><span style="font-family: arial;">treated with vitamin D2 </span><span style="font-family: arial;">(average </span><span style="font-family: arial;">age 58)</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> were carefully matched with 33,216 controls </span><span style="font-family: arial;">(average </span><span style="font-family: arial;">age 58).</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> 220,265 subjects treated with vitamin D3 </span><span style="font-family: arial;">(average </span><span style="font-family: arial;">age 64)</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> were matched with 407,860 controls </span><span style="font-family: arial;">(average </span><span style="font-family: arial;">age 63)</span><span style="font-family: arial;">. The details of the matches are shown in the paper.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In the vitamin D3 group, there were 359,091 men and 39,915 women, 71,071 Black and 283, 248 White subjects.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>VItamin D results</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">For the vitamin D3 group, the Vitamin D blood level results before the pandemic are as follows</span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">:</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKucF06QXn5cuxCqipiGye3rfnfEUo8ansQPHMYKPI_Dl2-OaFWVDVXNYxpm5m-KKQ8OepPmU6IIwjM09DGJwqqC8BaDMsIqbCeTOKjMKBa9CIojYGNfbYpkjLReweGzj1oHVzx8Xl_irK5cjkkMhW5uFXAg-sjqM0oF_A7wHjvqtCVHdS5LWrc08AIw/s534/Screenshot%202022-11-24%20at%2021.00.27.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="534" data-original-width="518" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKucF06QXn5cuxCqipiGye3rfnfEUo8ansQPHMYKPI_Dl2-OaFWVDVXNYxpm5m-KKQ8OepPmU6IIwjM09DGJwqqC8BaDMsIqbCeTOKjMKBa9CIojYGNfbYpkjLReweGzj1oHVzx8Xl_irK5cjkkMhW5uFXAg-sjqM0oF_A7wHjvqtCVHdS5LWrc08AIw/w388-h400/Screenshot%202022-11-24%20at%2021.00.27.png" width="388" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure1. Blood levels of Vitamin D in the subjects of the USA VA study.<br />ng/ml and nmol/L</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Experience in other observational studies indicates that the risk of critical or fatal Covid-19 is extremely low when the blood level of vitamin D is at or greater than 40 ng/ml, 100 nmol/L. Other studies have show that only about 15 – 25% of people fall into this range. In this present VA study only 25% of the 399,006 subjects had a "good" level of vitamin D, 75% being deficient, and 17% being very deficient with high Covid-19 mortality risk.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Men were found to have on average lower blood levels of vitamin D compared to women.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Black subjects tended to have lower blood levels of Vitamin D and higher rates of Covid-19 infection.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The group taking vitamin D2 was too small for detailed analysis.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The dose of Vitamin D taken had a very wide range, from 20 units per tp 15,000 units.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Outome assessment</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There were clear advantages in those taking Vitamin D supplements compared to untreated controls, as shown in Figure 2. The results are displayed as hazard ratios (HR), the control risk being standardised as 1.0 and the Vitamin D treated groups a lower number indicating benefit (lower infection or death rates).</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUlfPcZp8LeU9de2Lgw0EbpUoAYJitHg3s9b3HAYnEDZnwDu3Ek-W1uU_3gZnUwYyGLBCfli9UcU5ZALvLvyMNfIVsnmWVn8a5gtcoU8r7SaWyhBajoOUV6l9v95WunLbbjb2SCIfQAReW3EAAXArz1XjlzEv1ohIkW4Apjpa44ueTs-zyPTvivI5xPg/s506/Screenshot%202022-11-24%20at%2021.00.54.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="262" data-original-width="506" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUlfPcZp8LeU9de2Lgw0EbpUoAYJitHg3s9b3HAYnEDZnwDu3Ek-W1uU_3gZnUwYyGLBCfli9UcU5ZALvLvyMNfIVsnmWVn8a5gtcoU8r7SaWyhBajoOUV6l9v95WunLbbjb2SCIfQAReW3EAAXArz1XjlzEv1ohIkW4Apjpa44ueTs-zyPTvivI5xPg/w400-h208/Screenshot%202022-11-24%20at%2021.00.54.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 2. Hazard ratios for Covid-19 infection <br />based on blood levels of Vitamin D (lower HR greater risk)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">For Vitamin D3 treated subjects, the HR for Covid-19 infection is 0.797. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">For Vitamin D2 treated subjects, the HR for Covid-19 infection is 0.720. The benefit is shown </span><span style="font-family: arial;">clearly in the bar chart of Figure 3. The outcome for those taking D2 was slightly better than those taking D3, but there</span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> was a risk reduction of 25 – 30% for both groups. A clear benefit.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXVbuW6PeSIC0fQ9mL_aZjJC1PpnxNm9T4HaSYfp5cMEQ8UvfJAHyJebp6d90lIjz506bEK4KK4v1NmIo4fCWQKimK_Dv1kTT7QmXfnKUO_tCDzhVbKWiliMt3U1V0ktbmUZUs293HgF6McfEezMinnum4Qc4QwIRgnxh0u7RSn2V5qX2CTfAzIAStBQ/s792/HR%20infection.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="792" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXVbuW6PeSIC0fQ9mL_aZjJC1PpnxNm9T4HaSYfp5cMEQ8UvfJAHyJebp6d90lIjz506bEK4KK4v1NmIo4fCWQKimK_Dv1kTT7QmXfnKUO_tCDzhVbKWiliMt3U1V0ktbmUZUs293HgF6McfEezMinnum4Qc4QwIRgnxh0u7RSn2V5qX2CTfAzIAStBQ/w400-h364/HR%20infection.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Figure 3. Hazard ratios for Covid-19 infection <br />for Vitamin D3 and D2</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In Figure 4 we can see that f</span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">or Vitamin D3 treated subjects, the HR for death within 30 days of </span>Covid-19 <span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">infection was 0.667. </span>For Vitamin D2 treated subjects the HR for death within 30 days of Covid-19 infection was 0.765. The outcome for those taking Vitamin D3 (the great majority) was <span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">significantly better than for those taking Vitamin D2. </span></p></span><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl5_kKZ6wB0MF00V5mZ7-I8p92CVD_CCVpnL4l1ze7Yt0QTjwCEI_GVylBjxcSUpLJhzEhmlA78XQalqF8aHndjTwqGwqD9DTkYe5KVKzzkaWHBtE-F4QxC4sgxbffPwDAGkJsPZNQLH65Ivlsv3siTt9B2yz5xBRvTW0qyh1gT42Gp_ddqX7wovQ5EA/s792/HR%20mortality.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="734" data-original-width="792" height="371" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl5_kKZ6wB0MF00V5mZ7-I8p92CVD_CCVpnL4l1ze7Yt0QTjwCEI_GVylBjxcSUpLJhzEhmlA78XQalqF8aHndjTwqGwqD9DTkYe5KVKzzkaWHBtE-F4QxC4sgxbffPwDAGkJsPZNQLH65Ivlsv3siTt9B2yz5xBRvTW0qyh1gT42Gp_ddqX7wovQ5EA/w400-h371/HR%20mortality.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 4. Hazard ratios for death within 30 days of Covid-19<br />for Vitamin D3 and D2</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">For the subjects taking Vitamin D3, the risk reduction for death within 30 days of Covid-19 infection is 33% compared to controls. This a major benefit.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Further information is given in the paper.</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The analysis was based on medical records. No toxic effects of Vitamin D were recorded.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The greatest benefit was seen in the subjects with the most severe Vitamin D deficiency, less than 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L. Vitamin D supplement of 50,000 units per day brought about an infection HR of 0.51, which is a <b>49% reduction of Covid-19 infection risk</b>. This is a great short-term benefit but the dose is very high for long-term use.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The risk reduction for Covid-19 infection in men and women was similar, HR 0.8 in men and HR 0.77 in women, corressponding to 20% and 23% risk reduction respectively.</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3ZsP56px08P56hh5KJpjddfWSzOUrogwx_yMC06BmpVzU98EsEl7MGxKsDLP65TgznMuHR2Tdpr0MU-zTSZG5uH-5asaOVweSpYZHCSQ4OXgCD7Yy6rI3XHJmZSTwibRnfQTgO-Xrqh-AlbVX-O77IrFhkVHi3ilkLJcxJBQzSHHawyIcZPQwonGolA/s816/HR%20Men%20Women.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="710" data-original-width="816" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3ZsP56px08P56hh5KJpjddfWSzOUrogwx_yMC06BmpVzU98EsEl7MGxKsDLP65TgznMuHR2Tdpr0MU-zTSZG5uH-5asaOVweSpYZHCSQ4OXgCD7Yy6rI3XHJmZSTwibRnfQTgO-Xrqh-AlbVX-O77IrFhkVHi3ilkLJcxJBQzSHHawyIcZPQwonGolA/w400-h348/HR%20Men%20Women.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 5. Hazard ratios for Covid-19 infection<br />men and women</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Risk reduction was greater in Black subjects compar</span><span style="font-family: arial;">ed to White.</span></span><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdqOWesmHVAzdSMopWDZ4UAxG5A-BGMAr2ERFmlvAnR-yOfi4kjjDZoRBaLS4WNC3rtV2yNEMj95XJ14sO9nsQet3ee_R6ClV25D7dlBrj00o8hLAxhQFlyUOv8Bx29v-FMKmJCrVuRZ_lFGATCxCT91IUzigjct4wguwkgG6KVOvP6o4XO4kiK7-lSQ/s818/HR%20Black%20White.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="818" height="375" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdqOWesmHVAzdSMopWDZ4UAxG5A-BGMAr2ERFmlvAnR-yOfi4kjjDZoRBaLS4WNC3rtV2yNEMj95XJ14sO9nsQet3ee_R6ClV25D7dlBrj00o8hLAxhQFlyUOv8Bx29v-FMKmJCrVuRZ_lFGATCxCT91IUzigjct4wguwkgG6KVOvP6o4XO4kiK7-lSQ/w400-h375/HR%20Black%20White.png" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 6. Hazard ratios for Covid-19 infection<br />Black and White subjects</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">The respective HRs indicate a 30% risk reduction for Black subjects receiving a Vitamin D supplement comared to a 20% risk reduction in matched White subjects. This probably represents initially lower blood levels of Vitamin D in the Black subjects. </span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Vitamin D: blood levels and supplements.</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The USA VA study was retrospective controlled. The variables of initial blood levels of Vitamin D and the dose of Vitamin D supplement were recorded. They were only linked when the analysis was undertaken. The supplements, with a wide range of doses, were not necessarily based on blood levels at the time of prescription. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It might be expected that those with good blood levels of Vitamin D would not need or be given a supplement, but in practice many were. The results of the study indictate that those with initial very low blood levels of Vitamin D benefited m</span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">ore than those with good blood levels. However those with good blood l</span><span style="font-family: arial;">evels (40ng/ml, 100nmol/L or greater) also benefited. Risk reductions are shown in Figure 7.</span></span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ9txBkgSoxSCP-h9NucvgcCaMRkIozODShgi27S1_4z2RTouT1mAZslypILNp5LHdBDQhsCcyt2RvceK-3aSAeFq0T1ZLNKKnMwmEdp3mRxO9UMcXRrJo7DBsj96xNCFWtDSsuxoRvyqWU7UV42lJnD2sPzwHmYkivOKaxajxJ5jpFgDGNlxt0zD6wA/s646/RR%20vitamin%20D%20.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="292" data-original-width="646" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ9txBkgSoxSCP-h9NucvgcCaMRkIozODShgi27S1_4z2RTouT1mAZslypILNp5LHdBDQhsCcyt2RvceK-3aSAeFq0T1ZLNKKnMwmEdp3mRxO9UMcXRrJo7DBsj96xNCFWtDSsuxoRvyqWU7UV42lJnD2sPzwHmYkivOKaxajxJ5jpFgDGNlxt0zD6wA/w400-h181/RR%20vitamin%20D%20.png" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 7. Risk reduction from Vitamin D <br />based on initial blood level of Vitamin D</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Thus is very interesting. The subjects with the lowest blood levels of Vitamin D experienced overall a 30% risk reduction for Covid-19 infection. This is good. Those with the next lowest blood levels experienced a 19% risk reduction.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">However, the subjects that would not be considered to be Vitamin D deficient experienced a 14% risk reduction when given Vitamin D supplements. This suggests that in advance of a pandemic, giving a Vitamin D supplement to all people would be of considerable advantage, without needing to test for blood levels until later.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Conclusions</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This is yet another study that has shown the disadvantage of low blood levels of Vitamin D, and the great medical/biological advantage of correction with a Vitamin D supplement.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">How long can our major media, medical scientific, public health, and political leaders continue to ignore and deny the great importance of and benefits from Vitamin D?</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">From February 2020 onwards many cases of and deaths from </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Covid-19 could have been prevented if the pre-existing knowledge of the importance and safety of Vitamin D had been been put into action. Of course there was no pre-pandemic experience of Vitamin D supplement in respect of Covid-19, but action could have been taken, the application of Pascal's wager. </span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There was too much demand for "proof" and "more evidence" from people who could not understand the nature of proof. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The authors state: <i>"When we extrapolate our results for Vitamin D3 supplementation to the entire US population in 2020, there would have been approximately 4 million fewer Covid-19 cases and 116,000 deaths avoided"</i>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">If only.....</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">But for the next pandemic there is official prediction only for more mRNA vaccines, but no mention of Vitamin D, despite all the evidence of effectiveness and safety.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-87549209061670863952022-09-27T08:52:00.001-07:002022-09-27T09:05:15.120-07:00Covid-19 & Vitamin D: RCT benefit in Belgium & Mexico<p> </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUgj0U1I-ZATimSEIy3uZvQy-7nHnrdq4QpOak6xGevHnMKRTRG7mXf1Beln0HbbS7qQm91VMImk8DP6E3hZOG_VlglY1meYYfqU9obgDKNEfyJAtgvhuaO2kRF4HErIBtPgFzDAhplJ5ZSoj4aEffJYIKHpZXZf1o8pA2NTLVSR44R51ng66cMJxnqw/s890/Walter%20Crane%201883.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="870" data-original-width="890" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUgj0U1I-ZATimSEIy3uZvQy-7nHnrdq4QpOak6xGevHnMKRTRG7mXf1Beln0HbbS7qQm91VMImk8DP6E3hZOG_VlglY1meYYfqU9obgDKNEfyJAtgvhuaO2kRF4HErIBtPgFzDAhplJ5ZSoj4aEffJYIKHpZXZf1o8pA2NTLVSR44R51ng66cMJxnqw/s320/Walter%20Crane%201883.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In this Blog post we are going to look at two </span><span style="font-family: arial;">placebo controlled</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> Randomised Controlled Trials (RCT) that have demonstrated the effectiveness of Vitamin D in reducing the impact of Covid-19. They were performed in Belgium and Mexico. Before this we will recap the UK RCT that I analysed in detail in my <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2022/08/covd-19-vitamin-d-uk-covidence-clinical.html">previous Blog post</a>.</span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>RCT in the UK</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The clinical trial initially </span><span style="font-family: arial;">undertaken in the UK was</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> intended to evaluate the efficacy of Vitamin D in the prevention of serious Covid-19. It was to be a true Randomised Controlled Trial, but it failed. It was <b>not controlled</b> in that subjects in the control group, being informed that they were not to receive Vitamin D, took Vitamin D on their own initiiative. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The trial was therefore unable to compare outcome measures of the subjects receiving Vitamin D with true controls. It was also under-powered to answer the question "Should we be promoting Vitamin D to the people of the UK (and elsewhere) to protect them against damaging effects of Covid-19 ?" There were too few serious outcome end-points among the study sample of 6,000 normal healthy volunteers to produce a meaningful result.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The main researcher of the study was Professor Adrian Martineau, more recently commented: </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>"The challenges of the Vitamin D RCT – too many are already taking it."</i> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This means that, as in his study, true controls are unlikely to be available. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Covid-19 pandemic</b></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The UK study was undertaken during 2020, the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic, when there was clearly a need to give maximum protection to the population. The policy was lockdown and mask-wearing, damaging and probably without benefit. Real protection would come from optimising defensive personal immunity. The national policies were to encourage the devlopment of vaccines for this purpose, but in advance there was the opportunity to use Vitamin D. However natural immunity was never seriously considered officially, despite its success in previous pandemics of respiratory viruses. Vitamin D had the advantages of being available immediately, being very cheap, known to be very safe, and having a strong research foundation of optimising natural defensive immunity.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>The ignoring of Vitamin D</b></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Many studies had shown that low blood levels of Vitamin D were associated with and predicted serious or fatal Covid-19, whereas high levels gave a biological advantage. Early clinical trials of Vitamin D (in its rapidly acting part-activated form 25(OH)D Calcifediol) demonstrated clear advantage when given at the time of admission to hospital, but these studies were rubbished in the UK by just three people who were very influential but should have known better. Doctors were advised, directly or indirectly, not to use Vitamin D. We were told that we must wait for the result of the RCT to be conducted by a London team led by Professor Adrian Martineau.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And so we waited patiently. Vaccinations arrived and were given in two phases in 2021 with a booster in early 2022, but nevertheless there were 200,000 Covid-19 deaths in the UK. How many of these deaths might have prevented if Vitamin D been given? Especially if patients admitted to hospital with Covid-19 had been given Vitamin D in its part-activated form Calcifediol, which had been been shown to be very effective in RCTs in <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/09/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-randomised.html">Córdoba</a> and <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/02/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-success-of.html">Barcelona</a>.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Waiting for the result of the UK RCT turned out to be an exercise in futility: when the result became available in March 2022 it was found to be of no value in assessing the efficacy of Vitamin D (details in previous Blog post). What a wasted opportunity to help the population during the pandemic. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Meanwhile other studies were in progress.</span></span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Liège, Belgium</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvWotLOO6jU2bhZ0fK4DM3YDEQKZdYZjASXuZ2LJ2P1MM3OkJXTElTfUmDs4h35Ru3xp2qH3EsgXHKsY0U1XNHSDBcxsnnhZdIWkgmlwPxzgkDbyah-txhjC--91sJT4LBDQGazB5Qi0HR7X3tP2ueK7qvvp34eSfiM7UuWD8kjSPiPzI4QQoAhmvUFA/s176/Unknown.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="119" data-original-width="176" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvWotLOO6jU2bhZ0fK4DM3YDEQKZdYZjASXuZ2LJ2P1MM3OkJXTElTfUmDs4h35Ru3xp2qH3EsgXHKsY0U1XNHSDBcxsnnhZdIWkgmlwPxzgkDbyah-txhjC--91sJT4LBDQGazB5Qi0HR7X3tP2ueK7qvvp34eSfiM7UuWD8kjSPiPzI4QQoAhmvUFA/w320-h218/Unknown.jpeg" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /><b><br /></b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">An RCT study from<a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/14/15/3048"> Belgium </a>was conducted at the University Hospital of Liège. It recruited adult patients admitted to hospital on account of Covid-19 and with blood vitamin D levels of only 20ng/ml (50nmol/L) or less. They were all expected to survive at least 4 days, by which time a significant proportion of the Vitamin D given would be converted into 25(OH)D, calcifediol. Patients taking vitamin D in any form on admission to hospital were excluded.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The patients were therefore all selected as being Vitamin D deficient. They all received high quality clinical care in hospital. They were randomised to receive in addition either Vitamin D 25,000 units as an oil daily for four days to correct deficiency and then 25,000 units weekly for maintenance, or (the controls) to receive an identical liquid oil placebo. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">22 patients were randomised to receive placebo and 21 to receive Vitamin D. The average mean blood level of vitamin D was similar in the two groups. The mean of the placebo group was 16.87 ng/ml, 42.2 mol/L, and of the Vitamin D group 17.87 ng/ml, 44.7 mol/L</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLTiAjQbAqjILN2mT3HuFRJRGFE3SfqJUedCzvZBAZdf6g8slPp1J8X91MB8I7O4jzBQHXcivs6rALLfAzgknCzDSXjDa_9LFkxWlO35lqhEKENP_QoMu9csaioHoDnEInbw9L9RA-iduim4WuRnSUeoX2aatRKBBAf7iVWulw_xkJwupGCEzjA844Cg/s964/Screenshot%202022-09-22%20at%2018.20.51.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="964" data-original-width="628" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLTiAjQbAqjILN2mT3HuFRJRGFE3SfqJUedCzvZBAZdf6g8slPp1J8X91MB8I7O4jzBQHXcivs6rALLfAzgknCzDSXjDa_9LFkxWlO35lqhEKENP_QoMu9csaioHoDnEInbw9L9RA-iduim4WuRnSUeoX2aatRKBBAf7iVWulw_xkJwupGCEzjA844Cg/w416-h640/Screenshot%202022-09-22%20at%2018.20.51.png" width="416" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 1. Data from the Belgium RCT. (nmol/L = 2.5x ng/ml)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The outcome measures are all in favour of correction of Vitamin D deficiency, even though correction occurred fairly late in the course of Covid-19, but before a clinically critical level was reached. In a small RCT in<a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33595634/"> Brazil</a>, Vitamin D itself given on admission to ICU conferred no benefit, but this was too late and the Vitamin D would take several days to become part-activated to 25(OH)D, Calcifediol. </span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We can see in Figure 1 that the length of stay in hospital was reduced by 50% in the Vitamin D group compared to controls (4 versus 8 days).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">On day 7 following admission to hospital, 12 out of 22 (55%) control patients were still in hospital, compared to 4 out of 21(19%) of the Vitamin D treated patients.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">ICU admission rates were 5 out of 22 (23%) in the control group compared to 2 out of 21 (10%) in the Vitamin D treated group.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Other favourable outcome measurements can be seen in Figure 1, and we can also see that there were 3 Covid-19 deaths in the controls and just one in the Vitamin D treated group.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is quite clear that this is another RCT that shows that correction of Vitamin D deficiency in defence of patients against Covid-19 is very important. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Unfortunately during the pandemic doctors have not been allowed to give Vitamin D to hospital patients. How many people have died unnecessarily because of false government dogma?</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Mexico City</b></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRu2CdJFmRxe6ysxwuZZU4x30WLO8rUst3ZYct3k4_TtYORa60k6RQjKp3C1M6aL5uEziBitaJpXNZEROEbCdOR9Zi00tPn_Pe_sdvxADyO-SgpY5NRDH6EB2FDid2Xo2K7wM8zbHMsmeMn4dBrrt_3LAXFP7ZW3ML9dsGaNf72wqDWfUCawzyOYZIQw/s518/istockphoto-1313202873-170667a.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="333" data-original-width="518" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRu2CdJFmRxe6ysxwuZZU4x30WLO8rUst3ZYct3k4_TtYORa60k6RQjKp3C1M6aL5uEziBitaJpXNZEROEbCdOR9Zi00tPn_Pe_sdvxADyO-SgpY5NRDH6EB2FDid2Xo2K7wM8zbHMsmeMn4dBrrt_3LAXFP7ZW3ML9dsGaNf72wqDWfUCawzyOYZIQw/s320/istockphoto-1313202873-170667a.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Mexico City</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">One of the problems of the UK inconsequential trial was that low risk normal people were recruited. This meant that we could expect only small numbers of important end-points, and there were just three ICU admissions (one in each group) with no deaths. Conclusions could not be drawn, and higher risk subjects would need to be recruited to achieve a meaningful result from a realistic sample size.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The result of an RCT</span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> of Vitamin D has been reported </span><span style="font-family: arial;">from <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0188440922000455?s=09&via%3Dihub=">Mexico</a></span><span style="font-family: arial;">, and this recruited 321 health-care workers from four hospitals in Mexico City. The study was between J</span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">uly 15th and December 30th 2020, </span><span style="font-family: arial;">The subjects were considered to be at high risk of serious Covid-19. 94 of the subjects analysed at the end of the study had received Vitamin D 4,000 units daily (a "good" dose), and 98 had received a placebo of identical appearance. Randomisation was successful with no significant differences between the two groups at baseline. More than half the subjects failed to complete the study, mainly the result of too much high pressure work.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Mexico City is only 19 degrees north of the equator (compared to London at 53 degrees) and it is important to note that only 10% of the 321 initially recruited had a blood level of Vitamin D 30ng/ml, 75nmol/L, or more, that is in what other studies have shown to be the safe range. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Therefore 90% can be judged to be Vitamin D deficient with sub-optimal blood levels.</span><span><span style="font-family: arial;">This observation shows that serious Vitamin D deficiency can be common at all latitudes world-wide, the result of indoor working and sun avoidance. </span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;">Further d</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">etails of baseline Vitamin D status are shown in Figure 2.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1h8zT7okJxt-btueaEOuPuHSgzi80W9apCt6g0Ij1n69gtMcAqAKFzHV9tBRRMftSpv3y1z5kWEos_qdaQeZB-4LMntMqK-1FGOrKfDic2M0_C1f6t9DB6982DHaxBOiw75nRQpNvZP8i2JQ5pdq2YfCr02--eIZaBW4VjtqsMUEblEGX29KID-Yx2w/s1022/Screenshot%202022-09-26%20at%2016.27.36.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1022" data-original-width="628" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1h8zT7okJxt-btueaEOuPuHSgzi80W9apCt6g0Ij1n69gtMcAqAKFzHV9tBRRMftSpv3y1z5kWEos_qdaQeZB-4LMntMqK-1FGOrKfDic2M0_C1f6t9DB6982DHaxBOiw75nRQpNvZP8i2JQ5pdq2YfCr02--eIZaBW4VjtqsMUEblEGX29KID-Yx2w/w396-h640/Screenshot%202022-09-26%20at%2016.27.36.png" width="396" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 2. Data from Mexico RCT. (nmol/L = 2.5x ng/ml)<br /><br /></span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span><span><span style="font-family: arial;">The outcome results are also shown in Figure 2. The numbers of subjects are reduced because </span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">of the large drop-out rate, explained by the subjects to be the result of very heavy workloads.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span><span><span style="font-family: arial;">During follow-up </span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">24 (24.5%) of the subjects taking placebo tested positive for </span><span><span style="font-family: arial;">SARS </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">CoV-2</span><span><span style="font-family: arial;">, compared to 6 (6.4%) of the subjects taking Vitamin D. There were no deaths in either group, but </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">one taking placebo required admission to hospital. The blood level of Vitamin D as 25(OH)D, calcifediol, increased significantly in those taking Vitamin D but not in the placebo group.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This was a another positive result of an RCT of Vitamin D in appropriate dose reducing the incidence Covid-19.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0188440922000455?via%3Dihub=&s=09</span></p><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Conclusion</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Vitamin D deficiency is the major risk factor for serious Covid-19, and correction of Vitamin D deficiency has been shown again to give a biological advantage. But once again it has not resulted in a policy of vitamin D encouragement and I have not seen these two studies mentioned in the major media or in the medical press.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Are our medical-scientific leaders detached from current medical research, or are they choosing to deliberately ignore it? There is a single-minded policy of multiple vaccinations, and also what appears to be a deliberate policy of avoiding any debate concerning ineffectiveness and possible resulting damage.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-2103757240320633362022-08-26T05:45:00.008-07:002022-08-31T10:50:06.639-07:00Covid-19 & Vitamin D: UK unhelpful clinical trial<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLJYTbX7FuNNega6wTwZkof7au_wVCoNBkh2zq7O-KL7LsZAEegNiZSNxOPOc-TzUY049JvSioVYud1Qbijw6Z1wbxehWHGMvoskRXOs3gbKMkxWXUtiedd-QZG0rmzQbmM-z0xAMOCbetrlSzHSGqxrE19vM65ajLVsQD4mUgQ8NJ6VWbIhy0u8z8PQ/s3927/IMG_0338.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2945" data-original-width="3927" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLJYTbX7FuNNega6wTwZkof7au_wVCoNBkh2zq7O-KL7LsZAEegNiZSNxOPOc-TzUY049JvSioVYud1Qbijw6Z1wbxehWHGMvoskRXOs3gbKMkxWXUtiedd-QZG0rmzQbmM-z0xAMOCbetrlSzHSGqxrE19vM65ajLVsQD4mUgQ8NJ6VWbIhy0u8z8PQ/w400-h300/IMG_0338.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;">London – Greenwich and Canary Wharf</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />It has been established very well during the Covid-19 pandemic that a low blood levels of Vitamin D recorded in advance of illness (<a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-santander-heidelberg.html">Santander</a>, <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-santander-heidelberg.html">Heidelberg</a>, <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/12/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-strong-evidence.html">Israel</a> ) is the most significant but potentially reversible risk indicator of critical disease and death. Vitamin D deficiency is also the common factor within the major at-risk groups, the obese, the elderly, and those of South Asian and Black African ethnicity who li</span><span style="font-family: arial;">ve in the UK and other northern European countries. </span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It has been established that Vitamin D in its "raw" form when given to the critically ill in Intensive Care Units (ICU) is not effective (<a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33595634/">Brazil</a>), the simple reason being that as we know, it takes up to two weeks for the Vitamin D to be converted in the liver into its hydroxylated pre-active form, 25(OH)D, also known as Calcifediol. When Calcifediol is given by mouth it takes just two hours to achieve good blood levels. It is Calcifediol, 25(OH)D that we measure in the blood as Vitamin D.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Randomised controlled trials (<a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-calcifediol-96.html">Cordoba</a> and <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/02/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-success-of.html">Barcelona)</a> have shown that w</span><span style="font-family: arial;">hen Calcifediol is given to patients admitted to </span><span style="font-family: arial;">hospital on account of severe Covid-19,</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> it is remarkably successful in reducing the risk of escalation to ventilatory care and death. Why it has not been used widely in the UK and elsewhere is a mystery.</span></span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Correction of vitamin D deficiency</span></b></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It would be a sensible </span><span style="font-family: arial;">public health initiative to correct Vitamin D deficiency within the population, especially in those at particular risk. A "safe" level of Vitamin D in the blood should be achieved, ideally before admission to hospital. Vitamin D is cheap, readily available, and safe when given in physiological doses checked by blood levels. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is clear that a low blood level of vitamin D (=Vitamin D deficiency) can be a serious disadvantage, and restoration to an ideal blood level of 40ng/ml (100nmol/L) would be sensible. But how to achieve this is the challenge. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The physiological way to obtain Vitamin D is by exposure of the skin to the sun, at times when at close to sea level the sun is more than 45 degrees above the horizon, judged by the length of the shadow being less that the height. This could be recommended but an excessive single exposure leading to burn is to be avoided.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It has been demonstrated that not only people with ideal blood levels of Vitamin D have a reduced risk of critical or fatal Covid-19, but also people who are taking vitamin D supplements at the time of hospital admission on account of Covid-19 (<a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-evidence-from.html">Tameside, UK</a>). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The biology of the pivotal role of Vitamin D, in its fully activated form 1,25(OH)D, in the escalation of natural defensive immunity has been established during the past forty years.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">With the onset of a serious pandemic due to a new respiratory virus, it would seem to be sensible to act on a knowledge of medical science supported by early reports of the dangers of low blood levels of Vitamin D. Correcting Vitamin D deficiency would have been of great potential benefit, with no danger. I have drawn attention to the report of just <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2022/07/covid-19-vitamin-d-single-case-of.html">a single case of vitamin D toxicity</a> occurring during the pandemic.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Randomised controlled trial – RCT – from UK</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Official advice concerning the use of Vitamin D during the pandemic was very negative, ridiculously so given the circumstances and 200,000 Covid-19 deaths in the UK. The pandemic emergency resulted in vaccines being issued on the basis of Emergency Use Authorisation (EUA), meaning that only short term and rudimentary RCTs in healthy people had been completed. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">When it came to vaccinations in pregnancy there were no RCTs, which can be regarded as negligent. Safety was to be judged on the basis of "post–marketing surveillance". And this is the important thing: the main purpose of RCTs is to establish safety, following the thalidomide tragedy of the 1960s. When taking medicines, effectiveness is less importance than safety. A medicine might not do good, but it must not do harm – <i>primum non nocere</i>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Whereas the "vaccines" against Covid-19 are a new RNA technology with safety being far from clear, Vitamin D is a natural substance that has been in use for a century. The standard dose range is known, with appropriate blood levels. The exceptionally rare side-effect of <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2022/07/covid-19-vitamin-d-single-case-of.html">Vitamin D intoxication</a> (hypervitaminosis D) is always the result of major dose error and is both easily recognised and completely reversible. The need for RCTs of Vitamin D was much less pressing than for vaccines.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The challenge of prospective randomised trials of vitamin D, or anything else, is that if low-risk individuals are to be studied, very large numbers must be recruited if the endpoint of critical illness or death is to be reached in significant numbers. Administration costs are inevitably very high, and follow-up times will be long. It imight be sensible to concentrate on a smaller number of individuals who are at high risk of serious or fatal Covid-19. Hence the success of the RCTs from Spain, small numbers showing a big effect with statistical significance.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I have also shown in previous Blog posts the wisdom of Sir Austin Bradford Hill, whose criteria of pragmatic <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-demonstration-of.html">"proof" </a>(it is never absolute) identifies an RCT as being only one component. For ethical and operational reasons an RCT might not be possible, or be of only limited value. There is also the wisdom of <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/09/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-time-for-action.html">Blaise Pascal</a>, who realised that decision-making is also pragmatic, a trade-off between likely benefit and possible adverse outcome.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>United Kingdom - the COVIDENCE UK study</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Early in the pandemic i</span><span style="font-family: arial;">n the UK, </span><span style="font-family: arial;">a large community-based clinical trial of Vitamin D in the prevention of Covid-19 was proposed by Professor Adrian Martineau. Funding of the study became an immediate problem as a large administrative staff would be essential and there would be no pharmaceutical company support. However <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.22.22271707v1.full.pdf">the study</a> was undertaken and the result became available in early 2022.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">6200 adults were incorporated into the trial, with a number of exclusion criteria including current Vitamin D supplementation. </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">2958 of these were randomised to receive Vitamin D.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;">2690 (86.8%) of those to receive VItamin D had blood Vitamin D levels less than 30ng/ml, 75nmol/ml. </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">This shows the extent of clinically significant Vitamin D deficiency. They had suboptimal blood levels as identified in the observational studies described in Heidelberg, Israel, and other places. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">1334 were given a lower dose of vitamin D supplement, 800 units per day, and 1356 were given a higher dose, 3200 units per day.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The controls did not have blood testing and they were informed that they were not to receive a Vitamin D supplement. This is important as, with the Heidelberg and Israel studies, the identification of Vitamin D deficiency <b>before </b>the study would have created the ethical dilemma if they were not to have the deficiency corrected.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There was no placebo given to the control group. This weakened the trial and in the knowledge that they were not to receive Vitamin D that was being tested, the controls would be likely to take a Vitamin D suplement not given to them. In fact 49.9% of them did so on at least one occasion.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The trial commenced in December 2020, with six month follow-up of individuals. The vaccination process was under way at that time and 89.1% of the subjects received one or more doses of a Covid-19 vaccination during the study period. This would obviously complicate the interpretation of the results.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The baseline Vitamin D levels can be seen in Figure 1. Both units in current use are shown, nmol/L and ng/ml. We can see no significance difference between the two treatment groups at the baseline. We see again the high prevalence of low sub-optimal blood levels of Vitamin D.</span></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW46ArNLBMCQ-pZz1J3XJYiAlvLSJOsGyewDB_hA_MiNrYzlscHMng66mmAHybny8DXczJCu17jctvtCMuoiKe-PEyHdQQ3Egc0ozZDASwHFEJm2-bt2_2ZiJmMJWHX-zpHbCp5a5gL2LwJ22cQuEpl55ZQeRFO0pWj2Xq2PioQToPitYQznRwhYtcHQ/s880/Martineau%201.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="292" data-original-width="880" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW46ArNLBMCQ-pZz1J3XJYiAlvLSJOsGyewDB_hA_MiNrYzlscHMng66mmAHybny8DXczJCu17jctvtCMuoiKe-PEyHdQQ3Egc0ozZDASwHFEJm2-bt2_2ZiJmMJWHX-zpHbCp5a5gL2LwJ22cQuEpl55ZQeRFO0pWj2Xq2PioQToPitYQznRwhYtcHQ/w640-h210/Martineau%201.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 1. Baseline blood levels of Vitamin D</span><br /><br /><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In Figure 2 we can see the blood levels of Vitamin D at the end of the study. The ideal blood levels can be judged to be greater than 75nmol/L, 30ng/ml, and preferable to be 100nmol/L, 40ng/ml. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">We can see that the former level is achieved by taking 800units per day, and the higher level by taking 3,200units per day.</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In previous posts I have generally advised a supplement of 3,000units per day (the dose that I take, but as 20,000units once each week) but I have also emphasised the importance of checking blood levels so as to monitor the appropriate dose of the supplement. I have drawn parallels with monitoring the treatment of other hormone deficiencies, namely thyroxine and TSH levels in hypothyroidism, and glucose in diabetes.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNYDJg1-2TkFNAEHU2MKDBdQpP20V8Lf_e_8mH71NVzEF65HUMB7YA21IixTygc9y5X9zkFJdxBUOvs0wUQtS-cgzeXv8HIezfZdto9z5W6w2MGnQw3MrEMx1xNbH9e1hsePezY-nUJFeyfa8yPuCjNzl6s-VJUh_hg_vVPjp6B1fgK4oruM-6oib0oA/s1018/Martineau%202.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="326" data-original-width="1018" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNYDJg1-2TkFNAEHU2MKDBdQpP20V8Lf_e_8mH71NVzEF65HUMB7YA21IixTygc9y5X9zkFJdxBUOvs0wUQtS-cgzeXv8HIezfZdto9z5W6w2MGnQw3MrEMx1xNbH9e1hsePezY-nUJFeyfa8yPuCjNzl6s-VJUh_hg_vVPjp6B1fgK4oruM-6oib0oA/w640-h204/Martineau%202.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 2. End of study blood levels of Vitamin D</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is interesting to note that mean blood level of Vitamin D in the "No offer" group at the end of the study was 66.6nmol/L, 26.6ng/ml. As mentioned above the baseline blood Vitamin D levels in the "No offer" group, the intended controls, were not measured. There is no reason why they should not have been the same as in the treatment groups, which is about 41nmol/L, 16.5ng/ml. The fact that at the end of the study the mean blood level was 66.6nmol/L, 26.6ng/ml, indicates that many of those in the "No offer" were taking Vitamin D supplement of their own initiative, as some admitted. The increase would be 66.5%.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Clinical outcome was of course reported in the results of the study. We can see in Figure 3 that there were no significant differences in the cases of Covid-19 in the three groups, 2.97% in the high dose group, 3.63% in the low dose group, and 2.64% in the "No offer" group. There was similarly no significant difference in hospital admission rate. Ventilation was necessary in only one in each group, and there were no deaths.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLtJwVg30EwtjAS_DL307ea6cYerezUPCM8neNHd9-hj_e8qwSIpsaUOSBeL_HwVQCeGh0DDQYIw508nGSW_8oQUW72aeAt5jvwnryemh2Q5k9iCuApUw_pDQAoYvq8Gls0t5q35WoFZN0Wzafve4Hy15x8NxvRJFLhwHlpJJ6mz9bCspq73A5Rgb6Sw/s1060/Screenshot%202022-08-23%20at%2009.03.10.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="438" data-original-width="1060" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLtJwVg30EwtjAS_DL307ea6cYerezUPCM8neNHd9-hj_e8qwSIpsaUOSBeL_HwVQCeGh0DDQYIw508nGSW_8oQUW72aeAt5jvwnryemh2Q5k9iCuApUw_pDQAoYvq8Gls0t5q35WoFZN0Wzafve4Hy15x8NxvRJFLhwHlpJJ6mz9bCspq73A5Rgb6Sw/w640-h262/Screenshot%202022-08-23%20at%2009.03.10.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 3. Covid-19 infections related to Vitamin D supplement</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Figure 4 shows us that there were very few acute respiratory infections, with no significant differences between the groups. The infection rate was highest in the Vitamin D high dose group.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYKJpS0SXikqXYi2banuotYPW2rpBevHZCAmgnArD3zeiVjgPdenKzdcjTekzxa6D_pdqRdoEodQOzDL7BhHjLGoNv-1KAj4lH-2C_JjWa7nNPSK58ar77eR57xJZxLpZ7mJXTAGg_c467C5n68LoEchQKXdVsxV9D01oOxSiO2RI68t12K-Opz8-y9Q/s1004/Screenshot%202022-08-23%20at%2009.04.46.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="332" data-original-width="1004" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYKJpS0SXikqXYi2banuotYPW2rpBevHZCAmgnArD3zeiVjgPdenKzdcjTekzxa6D_pdqRdoEodQOzDL7BhHjLGoNv-1KAj4lH-2C_JjWa7nNPSK58ar77eR57xJZxLpZ7mJXTAGg_c467C5n68LoEchQKXdVsxV9D01oOxSiO2RI68t12K-Opz8-y9Q/w640-h210/Screenshot%202022-08-23%20at%2009.04.46.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 4. Acute respiratory infection related to Vitamin D supplement</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Conclusions</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The main conclusion of the study as mentioned in the paper is that a public health policy of<i> Test and Treat Vitamin D Deficiency</i> is a practical proposition. To quote from the paper:</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>"Ultimately, however, this trial was designed to investigate the effectiveness of a pragmatic 'test–and–treat' approach to boosting population vitamin D status, rather than biological efficacy of vitamin D to prevent ARIs [acute respiratory infections], and our findings should be interpreted accordingly."</i></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is not possible to form a conclusion concerning the effectiveness or otherwise of Vitamin D supplementation, but it appears that in prevention among asymptomatic people, a dose of 3,200units is perhaps of no advantage over a lower dose of 800units each day. However the absence of Covid-19 and respiratory deaths in all groups indicates that the study was underpowered (too small) to assess effect on deaths. To do so it would have</span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> been necessary recruit at least ten times the number of subjects.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This was a field study and the supplement dose was not adjusted to meet the needs of individual people. It was "one size fits all", but there might be an advantage of personalised approach with intermediate blood testing.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Of greatest importance in assessing Vitamin D efficacy is that the study was compromised by the "control" group being uncontrolled. It would have been scientifically more robust if they had been given a placebo, but that was not the case. This might have been for ethical rather than operational reasons, and similarly no base-line Vitamin D testing for the "control" group. However for a "test-and-treat" evaluation, the management of controls was not important and indeed the presence of controls was not really necessary.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In practice, those randomised to be controls were informed that they were not to receive a Vitamin D supplement, termed "no offer". It would appear that they did not want to miss out on what would be a very safe and potentially great advantage in the face of the pandemic, and many accepted Pascal's Wager, that is they took Vitamin D in unknown amounts, but sufficient to increase the mean blood level of Vitamin D by 66.5%. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The other confounding factor was the distribution of vaccines at the same time of the study. This was among all groups but it could confuse and diminish any assessment of clinical outcome.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Of 6,000 people taking Vitamin D supplement (including a significant but unknown number of "controls"), only three required ventilatory care for Covid-19 and there were no deaths. This in itself tells us the value of taking a Vitamin D supplement to correct deficiency.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Tracing for and testing of vitamin D deficiency was achieved in this study. </b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Assessment of correction of Vitamin D deficiency was inconclusive.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There are of course several other studies, and a study from Mexico will be the subject of the next Blog post.</span></div></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p><br /></p>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-51513827037054746172022-07-11T09:44:00.005-07:002022-07-12T09:04:46.127-07:00Covid-19 & Vitamin D: A Single Case of Vitamin D "intoxication" but much misunderstanding<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">During the past two years much has been made of the possible but exceptionally rare dangers of Vitamin D, assertions by those who have succeeded in suppressing an official use of Vitamin D which would optimise natural defensive immunity against Covid-19. This is the opposite of media silence concerning documented dangers from the new Covid-19 vaccines (which I believe <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-urgent-vaccines-need.html">might be prevented by correcting Vitamin D deficiency</a>).</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There have been in the past occasional case reports of "hypervitaminosis D", which is an excessive blood level of Vitamin D with undesirable but easily reversible metabolic consequences. <b>A single case</b> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">of hypervitaminosis D</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> has been documented in the UK during early July 2022. It was treated both simply and effectively. The BMJ <i>Case Report</i> was followed by widespread reporting in the press, far more than the incident demanded. Unintention</span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">ally </span><span style="font-family: arial;">the press spread disinformation due to misunderstanding, as we will see below. The initial report was in </span><span><span style="font-family: arial;">the </span><a href="https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/vitamin-d-supplement-overdosing-is-possible-and-harmful-warn-doctors/" style="font-family: arial;">British Medical Journal</a><span style="font-family: arial;">, warning do</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">ctors about possibly more cases in the future.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX0CTMUPtpHc5zc6wPyD_alR63CEyt6uBR9_Ql4mmoXYcnZkrxNzFHCWp6S3j6g0eGGwEilJyL0Sd4gfKlfWlV-C_jZ_wRHkNN9O36IcEMqo1_QPAk8OBX3TDwlWsNZ3RsHg5fsPpwO8CVzwxbfxq1LX_Dwzfqem9vymjaPgwOhxqlTFoR6A5eODSUZA/s1678/BMJ%203.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="666" data-original-width="1678" height="159" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX0CTMUPtpHc5zc6wPyD_alR63CEyt6uBR9_Ql4mmoXYcnZkrxNzFHCWp6S3j6g0eGGwEilJyL0Sd4gfKlfWlV-C_jZ_wRHkNN9O36IcEMqo1_QPAk8OBX3TDwlWsNZ3RsHg5fsPpwO8CVzwxbfxq1LX_Dwzfqem9vymjaPgwOhxqlTFoR6A5eODSUZA/w400-h159/BMJ%203.png" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">British Medical Journal, July 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The report was cascaded by several UK newspapers to alert the public. Since i published this Blog post yesterday (July 11th) I have been informed that it has also been reported in Germany and Australia. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">All the newspaper reports over-simplified the medical paper and missed the most important points.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMl7B1TRCBDvUkY9_364WLk9wlRqYBWucbdXfBNXMvjusQ3c42Or4IxDAalhpzQcOfE5cwcYRygoRsGGj6g2fpGJpichOKaXn650RKXiQ_HxF8DUfgCpF5ZdBRqt96Npbb2xt8uXTjk7MvLw1C__wdyCwYrrqTKIxukEt8-7dY62J4iG-lijKu99xHiA/s1382/Sky.png"><img border="0" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1382" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMl7B1TRCBDvUkY9_364WLk9wlRqYBWucbdXfBNXMvjusQ3c42Or4IxDAalhpzQcOfE5cwcYRygoRsGGj6g2fpGJpichOKaXn650RKXiQ_HxF8DUfgCpF5ZdBRqt96Npbb2xt8uXTjk7MvLw1C__wdyCwYrrqTKIxukEt8-7dY62J4iG-lijKu99xHiA/w400-h241/Sky.png" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /><b>Sky News</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p><p><b style="font-family: arial; text-align: center;"></b><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg67PourYL-e10ByB7wyMa2ziAHCJvPQ22lcaejllMqXWz2ftctlphI_G99FREtl2yv_ok6sMV6ewDNo7pFDAVHeycOgn-bttQprFsbYqLXWp_ANedDt8hyGbgzeJjd6-j_vTitQNPVP6hzB_HONvIZ9JPb2CuPh_aY64TnsjEo0Es6jK4snmwFdA2WFA/s1536/The%20Times.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="515" data-original-width="1536" height="134" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg67PourYL-e10ByB7wyMa2ziAHCJvPQ22lcaejllMqXWz2ftctlphI_G99FREtl2yv_ok6sMV6ewDNo7pFDAVHeycOgn-bttQprFsbYqLXWp_ANedDt8hyGbgzeJjd6-j_vTitQNPVP6hzB_HONvIZ9JPb2CuPh_aY64TnsjEo0Es6jK4snmwFdA2WFA/w400-h134/The%20Times.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>The Times<br /><br /></b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUwL9rmZVAOK-tNdDCOtRL0eKwr_ccUdcy-0l9o10m5cS7h2b1JGFbFm2c7uHNR2g4sZEtbjsUXnn9NGY8bEAChagcG9V7fLEd1_om7HW4APsIiNujRnzbnRKjZgnWQ-rss1KJJt0sCFXzXtCgvAJYaNpBObrM3CpL0Khst6zpiuMgYFX63wmn2NX_EA/s1386/Mirror.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="336" data-original-width="1386" height="98" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUwL9rmZVAOK-tNdDCOtRL0eKwr_ccUdcy-0l9o10m5cS7h2b1JGFbFm2c7uHNR2g4sZEtbjsUXnn9NGY8bEAChagcG9V7fLEd1_om7HW4APsIiNujRnzbnRKjZgnWQ-rss1KJJt0sCFXzXtCgvAJYaNpBObrM3CpL0Khst6zpiuMgYFX63wmn2NX_EA/w400-h98/Mirror.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Daily Mirror</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><br /><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYGFZ_bIRZWtoHuEsV_KGlLBW0esJiboFUoWvRfViNq1BKqGQ7RyXa0zwNcrMlIwGJRwWLRjZ3q9jvuGLSQ_19NngTT7iegCoJaNtPOrNw4YQEa6tx3sNMIVHEt2pSsiKbBjR5s9joihkVE3T_ar4gcXVjQNltFhgSl_j6W74ctLKLHYWBnbhaRHFBMA/s1536/Evening%20Standard.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1536" height="164" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYGFZ_bIRZWtoHuEsV_KGlLBW0esJiboFUoWvRfViNq1BKqGQ7RyXa0zwNcrMlIwGJRwWLRjZ3q9jvuGLSQ_19NngTT7iegCoJaNtPOrNw4YQEa6tx3sNMIVHEt2pSsiKbBjR5s9joihkVE3T_ar4gcXVjQNltFhgSl_j6W74ctLKLHYWBnbhaRHFBMA/w400-h164/Evening%20Standard.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Evening Standard</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW_osVMZcOEiQit-vwSOi2-me0m_o7mqIl-zSFHVBALAvpQAeRbSQZD3U5dk2VxuRP8yZwbNXB73LcCutS6gUvq8vqXTepyjNYQCaya1LUmbE3hoRNKcwYBvTuwSAoSbMGBA-51Gr03zJb5BE2AVhCVWc8RxBdP1luyOaIcvZu6bY9Z2uUXcNSRVZ5Cg/s1304/Topics.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="442" data-original-width="1304" height="135" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW_osVMZcOEiQit-vwSOi2-me0m_o7mqIl-zSFHVBALAvpQAeRbSQZD3U5dk2VxuRP8yZwbNXB73LcCutS6gUvq8vqXTepyjNYQCaya1LUmbE3hoRNKcwYBvTuwSAoSbMGBA-51Gr03zJb5BE2AVhCVWc8RxBdP1luyOaIcvZu6bY9Z2uUXcNSRVZ5Cg/w400-h135/Topics.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Topics</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Hypervitaminosis D</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">An excess of Vitamin D can lead to an increase of the blood level of calcium, which is mobilised from the bones. In turn, the high blood level of calcium (hypercalcaemia) has metabolic effects on the kidneys that increase the volume of urine production (polyuria), leading to dehydration. This is exacerbated by the other effect of vomiting. Correction of the problem is simple, by intravenous saline. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Hypervitaminosis D is extremely rare and it has not been reported in various recent Vitamin D trials. The point is that hypervitaminosis D is always the result of errors of dose, and there is a ready explanation for this. When it occurs Vitamin D has usually been</span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> given together with calcium supplements.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Identification of VItamin D</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">When Vitamin D was first identified and isolated in the early 20th century, the amount of it for metabolic use was so small that it could not be "weighed". Measurement was by biological assay, and expressed as International Units (iu), an agreed international standard. One unit of Vitamin D was defined as the daily requirement of an immature ten gram (10g) mouse, the amount required to ensure its bone development without rickets.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Everyone was happy with this and Vitamin D for human use was expressed in units (strictly "iu"). 400 iu was considered to be the daily amount to prevent rickets in children, and recent consideration has been for about ten times this for optimising immunity in the human adult. The daily need can be scaled up from one unit for the 10g mouse to 6,000iu for the 60kg human, but half this would be satisfactory.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>1922 – the identification of Insulin</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Insulin was identified and isolated in 1922, at about the same time as Vitamin D. Similarly insulin was present in such tiny amounts that could not be weighed and so the daily need and dose were expressed as international units of biological action. The use of biological units continues to this day without any clumsy attempts to change to mass units, weights, even though the mass of insulin can be measured.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It is now known that one unit of insulin weighs 0.0347 mg, which equals 34.7 micrograms. One unit of Vitamin D </span><span style="font-family: arial;">weighs 0.000025 mg or 0.025 micrograms </span><span style="font-family: arial;">(see below). Insulin has a much greater mass than VItamin D beacuse it is a large very complex protein molecule, whereas Vitamin D is a simple oil.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It was identified that the body produces on average during each day about one unit of Insulin per hour. 24 units of Insulin per day was the initial stating dose, divided into two or three injections (8+8+8 or 16+8 units) to coincide with major meals. Insulin resistance means that increasing doses are necessary to achieve normal blood glucose levels in some people.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Imagine the confusion if people with diabetes were to be told to take 0.2776 milligrams or 277.6 micrograms of Insulin (8 units) three times a day! Chaos would be inevitable, especially as the dose must be modified to suit the individual. Diabetes specialists are sensible and keep to the units that everyone understands</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Measurement of Vitamin D</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">One unit of Vitamin D can now be measured as 25 billionths of a gram, 0.000000025 grams, or 0.025 micrograms. This is obviously infinitessimally small, too small to see. Vitamin D can now be measured in mass units rather than biological assay units, but this has created its own problems.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">As with Insulin, everyone has been happy with internationally agreed biological units, iu, of Vitamin D. The arrival of mass units (based on weight) has caused confusion and it is this that can lead to the problem of hypervitaminosis D.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The move to mass units</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Whereas most doctors and the general population think of Vitamin D in terms of units, the important UK Standing Advisory Committee on Nutrition (SACN) uses mass units. Hence confusion. The same would have happened in other countries.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">400 units of Vitamin D is accepted as being the minimum daily dose of Vitamin D to prevent rickets in a child. 400 units is 10 micrograms, al</span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">so expressed as mcg or μg. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Metric units</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">People are accustomed to using the metric unit gramme, or gram, and are aware that a milligram (mg) is a small proportion of this, but few are aware that milligram is actually one thousandth of a gram.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The microgram does not appear in the lives of most people. It is a unit of measurement effectively confined to scientific disciplines, and the scientific knowledge of the great majority of the population is abysmally low. Few people can even guess that a microgram is one thousandth of a milligram, a millionth of a gram. Such a tiny amount is beyond general comprehension. The minimum daily requirement of Vitamin D is 10 millionths of a gram (10 </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">μg) </span><span style="font-family: arial;"> and the requirement for optimal immunity is 100 millionths of a gram (100 </span><span style="font-family: arial;">μg)</span><span style="font-family: arial;">. Here lies the opportunity for confusion and danger.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The abbreviations </span><span style="font-family: arial;">mcg or μg are also unknown to most non-scientific people. Unfortunately mg can be assumed and has been expressed in the press. This </span><span style="font-family: arial;">immediately leads to a dose excess by a factor of one thousand.</span></span></p><p><b style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">The development of confusion</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">If a person takes Vitamin D 4,000 units each day, all will be well, simple and easily understood. 4,000 is a large number, but remember the 10 gram mouse.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But if we transcribe this to 100 </span><span style="font-family: arial;">mcg or μg there is opportunity for confusion and error. It is possible that in error 100mg will be taken, which is 4,000,000 units, a thousand-fold increase.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This is the way in which severe hypervitaminosis D can occur. Fortunately it is </span><span style="font-family: arial;">easy treated.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The sensible way forward is regard Vitamin D in the way that we sensibly regard Insulin: keep to well-understood international units, and forget what in practice is the pseudo-science of using tiny mass units in public life.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Advice from the Newspapers</b></span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7jYY6opYZw934mV9lGHcpSCiw57ahYpQx-HhriGXyIeVA8KFB39GrumDlBfgbb1PzwnT5X0L7ELQWQoZqaBz8WVVJJUVOfn871ZnOoUQw2c8a_UbYbBfqN89I0KbNISkwcC91u0VrY7NdaCcesXVkZHbouf41y5WGoQOuGBA1tBymgQVPE18YHJXV-Q/s794/Sky%202.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="422" data-original-width="794" height="341" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7jYY6opYZw934mV9lGHcpSCiw57ahYpQx-HhriGXyIeVA8KFB39GrumDlBfgbb1PzwnT5X0L7ELQWQoZqaBz8WVVJJUVOfn871ZnOoUQw2c8a_UbYbBfqN89I0KbNISkwcC91u0VrY7NdaCcesXVkZHbouf41y5WGoQOuGBA1tBymgQVPE18YHJXV-Q/w640-h341/Sky%202.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Sky News</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Sky News misinterpreted the units. Sky News reported that the subject of the case report was taking 50,000mg </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">of vitamin D each day, which was obviously absurd. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">50,000mg is 50g, the size and weight of a large egg. </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> but the reporter had no knowledge of units of measurement</span><span style="font-family: arial;">. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">50,000 mg is 50,000,000 micrograms, 50 million! With a </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Vitamin D </span><span style="font-family: arial;">conversion factor of 40 it would be 2,000,000,000 units, <b>2 billion units</b>! How the press can misinform.</span></span></p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>The patient, described in the British Medical Journal (BMJ)</b></span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Although maintaining anonymity, the BMJ gives information about the circumstances of the Vitamin D excess. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>"The middle-aged male patient had a variety of health issues, including tuberculosis, an inner ear tumour (left vestibular Schwannoma) that had resulted in deafness in that ear, a build-up of fluid in the brain (hydrocephalus), bacterial meningitis, and chronic sinusitis."</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The description continues:</span></p><p><i><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">"He had been taking high doses of more than 20 over the counter supplements every day containing vitamin D 150,000 iu (daily requirement 10 mcg or 400 iu); vitamin K2 100 mg daily (daily requirement 100–300 </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">μg); vitamin C; vitamin B9 (folate)</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> 1,000 mg (daily requirement 400 </span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">μg); vitamin B2 (riboflavin); vitamin B6; omega-3 2,000 mg twice daily (daily requirement 200–500 mg); plus several other vitamin, mineral, nutrient and probiotic supplements."</span></i></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> What we can see is vast uncontrolled polypharmacy self-administered by someone with no understanding of what he was doing. It is very sad but we are in an era of "healthism" in which taking supplements is almost routine. Those people selling the supplements should exert some control over excess consumption, and this should have been the most important message of the case report. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In a medical world supplements, replacement therapies, are given on the basis of need. Type 1 diabetes is a condition of insulin deficiency, and insulin replacement therapy is given under controlled conditions, with careful monitoring of blood levels of glucose and HbA1c. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Clinical and public health medicine should have a firmer grip on Vitamin D, so that supplements are given following blood level testing, with follow-up to ensure appropriate dose. Medicine is negligent in not achieving this, with public health and health service managers even more negligent in discouraging it.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Incidentally, the BMJ <i>Case Report</i> is not perfect. It uses both mcg and </span><span style="font-family: arial;">μg as abbreviations for micrograms. My preference is the abbreviation "mcg" as this is simple to type. To type "</span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;">μg" requires looking up symbols. Using Greek letters without necessity is an example of pseudo-science.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The <i>Case Report </i>uses IU as a cumbersome and not always </span><span style="font-family: arial;">intelligible abbreviation for international units. Once again we should take the lead from Insulin and use the simple abbrevation "unit" which is what everyone has used during the past hundred years.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It mentions in respect of VItamin D a "</span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>daily requirement 10 mcg or 400 iu".</i> This is the dose that is necessary to avoid rickets, but it is increasingly recognised that about ten times that dose is necessary to optimise immunity.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">When I read <i>"Hypervitaminosis D, as the condition is formerly known...." </i>I was rather surprised as I did not know of a more recent term. I now realise that this is a typo, and that "formerly" should have been "formally", a similar word with a very different meaning.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Blood levels of Vitamin D</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The blood level of VItamin D is not generally measured, and indeed clinical doctors in the UK are discouraged from requesting it. After ingestion or production in the skin, Vitamin D is transported to the liver. It is then hydroxylated to 25(OH)D, which is the circulating reservoir available for immediate use. It is Vitamin D as 25(OH)D that is measured in the blood as a routine. 25(OH)D is also known as Calcidiol or Calcifediol. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is not appropriate or possible to use international units in measuring blood levels of Vitamin D. It is only since the measurement by mass units that the blood levels have been able to be expressed.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Blood levels have been initially expressed by the mass unit of <b>nanogram</b>. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The same problem again: only people with a scientific background might understand this unit. One nanogram is a thousandth of a microgram, and so one nanogram is a thousandth of a millionth of a gram. Perhaps the general population does not need to be troubled by this.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There is a movement towards using SI units (International System of Units), involving molar measurements. And so 40ng/ml (40 nanograms per millilitre) is equivalent to 100nmol/L (100 nanomols per litre), a conversion factor of 2.5.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>1,25(OH)D</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is also possible to measure the blood level of circulating fully-activated Vitamin D, 1,25(OH)D. Most 1,25(OH)D (Calcitriol) is produced in the cells of immunity in response to infection, but a small amount is produced in kidney cells to circulate and act on bone and maintain an accurate blood level of ionised calcium. 1,25(OH)D is present</span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> in the blood</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">in only very tiny amounts, measured in </span><b style="font-family: arial;">picograms</b><span style="font-family: arial;"> per millilitre. A picogram is a thousandth of a nanogram, in other words a million millionths of a gram. In practical terms</span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> this need not concern us, but it demonstrates the tiny amounts of hormones that are necessary for bodily health.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Complexity can lead to error</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I hope that the numbers displayed have not been overwhleming. The complexity outlined is in the use of varying terms of measurement, not of the need for and benefits from VItamin D.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I would strongly recommend the continuing use of International Units, or just "units" that we have all been accustomed to during the past century. As it works perfectly well and without confusion with Insulin, let Vitamin D be the same.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I would also recommend that doctors in clinical and public health take more responsibility for Vitamin D, identifying deficiency by blood testing, prescribing or advising appropriate dose, and using blood levels to monitor the dose of the supplement.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is also important that pharmacists and others who are selling Vitamin D directly to the public take responsibility in advising against excessive dose and uncontrolled polypharmacy in general. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Many strengths of Vitamin D capsules are available. Perhaps the highest strength should be 20,000 units, with emphasis that it is a convenient and effective dose to be taken only once a week. This is what I take.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9Aye_zwKS9njz8PXclsP3rP39Dji7FOo9M_Q_7ayDL_It8r4Sk-mHrJ_C6cat0WRiCFUxzkZWl__5VS0ENfMThIUs5oLwzzNVwwg8RqKNw-d8OZr1KvCKYuuZqOiEYsMVoy1aZ2qBTghjMHf7IrtDNd4TmqGOrN73Gk7HBlsudXVYUAo1ytei0lGP8g/s2995/vitamin%20D%201.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1219" data-original-width="2995" height="163" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9Aye_zwKS9njz8PXclsP3rP39Dji7FOo9M_Q_7ayDL_It8r4Sk-mHrJ_C6cat0WRiCFUxzkZWl__5VS0ENfMThIUs5oLwzzNVwwg8RqKNw-d8OZr1KvCKYuuZqOiEYsMVoy1aZ2qBTghjMHf7IrtDNd4TmqGOrN73Gk7HBlsudXVYUAo1ytei0lGP8g/w400-h163/vitamin%20D%201.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">On the rear of this packet, the manufacturer clearly states that this is a once per week dose, and that doctors and pharmacists must confirm this.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP40mhuOC3_eoM7tRIU1itn4audp0-uHBgrEyLYV5CmCBiyoSwteFNQImID2Lij06P2LkOKyfmMhK6SmFyZM_umB-WSQGrG5JvmMTe50LuLQfqZPko8HV6kJc6mvVkn_ZANADO9Hb66iEqyYYaKKTqvHe2lMT7RcPbSKuHtyIGuYYUIkZE_xeEAdaFcw/s2571/Vitamin%20D%202.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="185" data-original-width="2571" height="46" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP40mhuOC3_eoM7tRIU1itn4audp0-uHBgrEyLYV5CmCBiyoSwteFNQImID2Lij06P2LkOKyfmMhK6SmFyZM_umB-WSQGrG5JvmMTe50LuLQfqZPko8HV6kJc6mvVkn_ZANADO9Hb66iEqyYYaKKTqvHe2lMT7RcPbSKuHtyIGuYYUIkZE_xeEAdaFcw/w640-h46/Vitamin%20D%202.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><b>Thank you for any Comments but I have difficulty in replying. I suspect that my Blog might be blocked for comments and replies. Please send emails to</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><b>davidgrimes1@mac.com</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 11px;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-41248687550323278372022-06-22T01:11:00.007-07:002022-06-23T01:33:42.420-07:00Covid-19 & Vitamin D : Lack of benefit of vaccines in Canada<p><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqhcOkAlEnRfUTC27fXl24LpxUVkZIpoFDlZSDL7qi0F8bmrR4LdJU-MsFyVWVPUDFyvynZ-Wzl_MqSbKygsWq_8f-ls5Y4it0bYb2rr8B1x-SU7r8vyLCeJpemZvwKp6ObR9clPZIwYkDdDO7MFBuAuWc-SEScfkmBlr-k3lo-hL29bG8de4CjRzrMw/s1086/Screenshot%202022-06-06%20at%2009.35.10.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="716" data-original-width="1086" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqhcOkAlEnRfUTC27fXl24LpxUVkZIpoFDlZSDL7qi0F8bmrR4LdJU-MsFyVWVPUDFyvynZ-Wzl_MqSbKygsWq_8f-ls5Y4it0bYb2rr8B1x-SU7r8vyLCeJpemZvwKp6ObR9clPZIwYkDdDO7MFBuAuWc-SEScfkmBlr-k3lo-hL29bG8de4CjRzrMw/w400-h264/Screenshot%202022-06-06%20at%2009.35.10.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 1. The inevitable effect of vaccinations on blood levels of Vitamin D. <br />The green line illustrates someone who has a good blood level of Vitamin D.<br />The blue line represents some who initially has a low blood level of Vitamin D.<br />Without Vitamin D supplement, vaccinations will damage Vitamin D mediated immunity. <br />(see <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-urgent-vaccines-need.html">previous Blog post </a>for further details)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i><b>In this Blog post there are many Figures and a lot of numbers. The important points are in the text, which I hope can be read easily. The details in the Figures are for reference so as to demonstrate that the data are real.</b></i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i><br /></i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2022/05/covid-19-vitamin-d-canada-vaccination.html">My previous Blog post </a>looked at data from the <a href="https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html">Public Health Agency Canada, PLAC</a>. I identified that during the week April 10 to April 17 2022, there were 277 Covid-19 deaths. This is calculated by the total cumulative number on April 17 (16,002) minus the total cumulative number recorded on April 10 (15,775). Of the 277 deaths, 276 had received at least one vaccination and only one had not been vaccinated.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This might appear to be too extreme. Could it really be true? I was doubtful but when I analysed the data the numbers were real and they were published in official documents. Was this week somehow exceptional? What about other weeks?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The problem is that each weekly report by the PHAC is an update of the previous week, starting in December 2020. At that time all of the Covid-19 deaths were obviously in the unvaccinated, and during most of 2021 the majority would have been unvaccinated. It would be only at the end of 2021 that first people would be triple vaccinated, that is "fully vaccinated (x2) plus additional (booster)". But the historic data are not of relevance at present, as it is "now" that is important to us.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">We can subtract last week's cumulative data from this week's (always a larger number), but I am unable to identify data from previous weeks as previous data is contunally over-written. However by taking screen-shots each week it is possible to look at each week </span><span style="font-family: arial;">prospectively.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I described additional data from May 1st, two weeks data being identified by subtraction of April 17th and then averaged into two separate weeks. I can now display the data reports from May 8th, May 15th, and May 22nd a total of six weeks. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Recent updates of Covid-19 deaths in Canada</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">From the official PHA Canada reports I can display Table 2 of the two most recent updates.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Data from May 8th</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcFa2h3UcKl-N4MUZ8rceqK2Y89iv-Fk1XjJxk4jqr0Mtyttktx6oXMfN9kVjQZ31izMM-UvZFi3FWifQgaQ2pafa4lD4FiPqpg8A6AiIKTtSHlhj567pecBpG7Kr9WNrdBXMNHD3RtH8CWzsIHg4K-ej-7G1JRfWwEcbx-5sECC4Y-huDOY7wIPwS7A/s2008/Screenshot%202022-05-24%20at%2022.06.29.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="966" data-original-width="2008" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcFa2h3UcKl-N4MUZ8rceqK2Y89iv-Fk1XjJxk4jqr0Mtyttktx6oXMfN9kVjQZ31izMM-UvZFi3FWifQgaQ2pafa4lD4FiPqpg8A6AiIKTtSHlhj567pecBpG7Kr9WNrdBXMNHD3RtH8CWzsIHg4K-ej-7G1JRfWwEcbx-5sECC4Y-huDOY7wIPwS7A/w640-h308/Screenshot%202022-05-24%20at%2022.06.29.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 2. Data from May 8th 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Data from May 15th</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNcqrKd4lEJI1i9gBpt6t2p4HHIWmsyG5PGJO7aMoY-93w7HoGB20IKpBA8Pccg29Vh5R6Kk6rMt6YVksdLqSgsDNQfsN_8sCp5jFUWq6bSVr3jEpn9xn4bFVQDOOOPfhuLfF6X7Qvw27HJz-KMNV2xmb02dMXFLZMqRtwxUu3CSen2PU8BoeRqFVxjg/s2022/Screenshot%202022-06-02%20at%2012.25.01.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="964" data-original-width="2022" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNcqrKd4lEJI1i9gBpt6t2p4HHIWmsyG5PGJO7aMoY-93w7HoGB20IKpBA8Pccg29Vh5R6Kk6rMt6YVksdLqSgsDNQfsN_8sCp5jFUWq6bSVr3jEpn9xn4bFVQDOOOPfhuLfF6X7Qvw27HJz-KMNV2xmb02dMXFLZMqRtwxUu3CSen2PU8BoeRqFVxjg/w640-h306/Screenshot%202022-06-02%20at%2012.25.01.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 3. Data from May 15th 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br />Data from May 22nd </span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqHjMfCD3YQmTruR6plU7QmPabsiTlJsa7ZqM_ERLlX2AnyS7IdeXi1iQxeY8RcumulPLP_eylIK06h4amfyHChJHqrDEtsHAdlDcaxKZmGoaHU7m_oBbmMujQJ_GGf5YOVp1HskP3tNIgFy59TLPumuaz1SXi3X075Wkw3Rwx28p1nn4hPqbDDc2g-w/s1970/Screenshot%202022-06-08%20at%2020.59.49.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1970" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqHjMfCD3YQmTruR6plU7QmPabsiTlJsa7ZqM_ERLlX2AnyS7IdeXi1iQxeY8RcumulPLP_eylIK06h4amfyHChJHqrDEtsHAdlDcaxKZmGoaHU7m_oBbmMujQJ_GGf5YOVp1HskP3tNIgFy59TLPumuaz1SXi3X075Wkw3Rwx28p1nn4hPqbDDc2g-w/w640-h312/Screenshot%202022-06-08%20at%2020.59.49.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 4. Data from May 22nd 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><div><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It is necessary to extract useful information from the data, for the six weeks that it is possible to analyse </span><span style="font-family: arial;">so far.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Covid-19 deaths during each week</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Week ending April 10 </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This is the baseline week and so all we can see is cumulative data starting in December 14th 2020. Note that "vaccination <21days" implies that the vaccination has not had adeqaute time to induce immune protection.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The important data for April 10th is extracted in Figure 5.</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH4ejh-aw9_GLWjxMipuXyFvuUygJpmbmq4V3XIhc-OWn5FBnEAnQWIBah_CAotISkQXGUJSMRR6V-nWc98vQ57cabFTpL2oG4Vm-Kl42noNS7bIb-4DAhp7rVUz8nP6IFtlQ3C_SXRz0XPRIRP_mNcYakM_S8cBVWH72HHCdieV1YwxWfZ7vNTbqRdA/s674/Screenshot%202022-06-05%20at%2020.51.21.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="404" data-original-width="674" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH4ejh-aw9_GLWjxMipuXyFvuUygJpmbmq4V3XIhc-OWn5FBnEAnQWIBah_CAotISkQXGUJSMRR6V-nWc98vQ57cabFTpL2oG4Vm-Kl42noNS7bIb-4DAhp7rVUz8nP6IFtlQ3C_SXRz0XPRIRP_mNcYakM_S8cBVWH72HHCdieV1YwxWfZ7vNTbqRdA/w400-h240/Screenshot%202022-06-05%20at%2020.51.21.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 5. Data extract from April 10th 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The fact that during the time from December 14th 2020 to April 10th 2022 60.29% of those who died from Covid-19 were not vaccinated does not lead to a useful conclusion. The proportion of the population vaccinated was increasing steadily, not a steady state. It does not tell us about "now", but is frequently advertised by those who are promoting vaccination without being in possession of up-to-date facts.</span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The PHAC provides details of the vaccination profile of the nation, shown in Figure 6. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUcHKC7MtQVeydci88wA2QTnC8BoH8c-OfSqi4AfC_dU0cH4SZD57Ea34FHj5QmB_GSWgPK-YKftbNOlmz1US1tMPBtLQLBm9R4KEkTK7NB7jGcvigFm3ev8yFQPCac33_L07JMG0xRgL-3om3VnqGkdpCrjzKWgRbDNbHpbQdOV89DZE6rZ9kl5XPjg/s1898/Screenshot%202022-06-05%20at%2018.14.55.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="882" data-original-width="1898" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUcHKC7MtQVeydci88wA2QTnC8BoH8c-OfSqi4AfC_dU0cH4SZD57Ea34FHj5QmB_GSWgPK-YKftbNOlmz1US1tMPBtLQLBm9R4KEkTK7NB7jGcvigFm3ev8yFQPCac33_L07JMG0xRgL-3om3VnqGkdpCrjzKWgRbDNbHpbQdOV89DZE6rZ9kl5XPjg/w640-h298/Screenshot%202022-06-05%20at%2018.14.55.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 6. Vaccination data up to May 22nd 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is obvious that in the early weeks of the pandemic the numbers vaccinated was low, but at present 85% have received at least one vaccination and 82% were double ("fully") vaccinated. 49% had been double vaccinated plus booster.<br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The tables </span><span style="font-family: arial;">presented </span><span style="font-family: arial;">subsequent to April 10th will display just weekly additions, concentrating on "now".</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Week April 10 to April 17</b></span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT0OdSJhkAWb58bVGFMJpMVDNdxTewn-jS6I7nF8lgtwrE7xS7hzzcK1wUSbDUMW8rUMJKQl0FMcTtVzQbnEs8uNEe2Om6iYuvpaUgdeYUHA5dLe_UttaJb-mFxZdMeR-_qTCxS-dNUbxyiGvXZnGUEdSfDI-9mLCiGLA_WLyZLZ7fSu7uhKVpDx7jPg/s740/Screenshot%202022-06-05%20at%2021.09.16.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="464" data-original-width="740" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT0OdSJhkAWb58bVGFMJpMVDNdxTewn-jS6I7nF8lgtwrE7xS7hzzcK1wUSbDUMW8rUMJKQl0FMcTtVzQbnEs8uNEe2Om6iYuvpaUgdeYUHA5dLe_UttaJb-mFxZdMeR-_qTCxS-dNUbxyiGvXZnGUEdSfDI-9mLCiGLA_WLyZLZ7fSu7uhKVpDx7jPg/w400-h251/Screenshot%202022-06-05%20at%2021.09.16.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 7. Data extract from weeks ending April 10 – 17 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This was illustrated in my previous Blog post.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">An important detail is the rate of increase of Covid-19 deaths related to vaccinatiion status. We can see that the increase had been greatest in those double (2.2%) and triple (8.7%) vaccinated.These are increases based on the data from April 10th (denominator).</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We can also see that 226 of the 227 deaths (99.6%) during this week were in people who had been vaccinated, only one unvaccinated. This might be the result of 99.6% of the population of Canada having been vaccinated, but this is not the case (Figure 6) and we will look at it in more detail later, after we have looked at other weeks. Will this remarkable proportion continue into the subsequent weeks?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Week April 17 to April 24</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> </span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="468" data-original-width="798" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8nWtljmFd_wPcKv1vQDbe7Hb1NJqt4SirFZ3zy9nInaWRjp6taYWk4sC8alc3Y-N8ApU-SslGuYbgZFDNtzWqUNTQBonbt1bI4GD4966ZKPcge-3IFQ8iHqOPhgpdr-PzkJyD3z1tR2Pcn-mp2SUsth1KUrvTZzbSbUHfNmXyas45z5nXK_EgfAB9Cw/w400-h235/Screenshot%202022-06-05%20at%2021.19.47.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 7. Data extract from week ending April 24 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8nWtljmFd_wPcKv1vQDbe7Hb1NJqt4SirFZ3zy9nInaWRjp6taYWk4sC8alc3Y-N8ApU-SslGuYbgZFDNtzWqUNTQBonbt1bI4GD4966ZKPcge-3IFQ8iHqOPhgpdr-PzkJyD3z1tR2Pcn-mp2SUsth1KUrvTZzbSbUHfNmXyas45z5nXK_EgfAB9Cw/s798/Screenshot%202022-06-05%20at%2021.19.47.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></a></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The answer is that the extreme result of the previous week was not repeated. However two thirds of the deaths were among the vaccinated, and one third unvaccinated. It appears that the rate of increase was the greatest</span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> among the triple vaccinated. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">To assess the increase in each week it is better to concentrate on the precise numbers. We can see simply that 293 of those who died had not been vaccinated, whereas 556 had been vaccinated. This is 34.6% not vaccinated and 65.4% vaccinated.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is important to note that 40% had been triple vaccinated.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Week April 24 to May 1</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis4cQ4D3ZtEwu4RQdmsEFni3X6qruB5uMTbLVieNvhDZCOHjHdW3HfaTsmu4e9yjBwhCqEsy4ntS7oNWvrkHt24vEsh8a0nc7nNfV96gRwrSzFah0kUt3wLWVZFXD6gNAtSxJg6ABGcem_2WlJhZYE0VWCuQryBSdQtU9B356boxDiCHuiegmVKFORVQ/s746/Screenshot%202022-06-06%20at%2010.18.27.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="460" data-original-width="746" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis4cQ4D3ZtEwu4RQdmsEFni3X6qruB5uMTbLVieNvhDZCOHjHdW3HfaTsmu4e9yjBwhCqEsy4ntS7oNWvrkHt24vEsh8a0nc7nNfV96gRwrSzFah0kUt3wLWVZFXD6gNAtSxJg6ABGcem_2WlJhZYE0VWCuQryBSdQtU9B356boxDiCHuiegmVKFORVQ/w400-h246/Screenshot%202022-06-06%20at%2010.18.27.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 8. Data extract from week ending May 1st 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The data from this week are effectively the same as the previous week. PHAC published a two-week update and I have divided the data equally into two separate weeks.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Week May 1 to May 8</b><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMR0NPnZWi5OF-gR3s89UEkup2cdLRBz3OccZkoeMN9zvAMP43wUlmiNVPzjK-iZxiDt1gticzC2OhNfCWkdWhSutp3g2cxHnKjmLpO-H0IrwRKonvw4Hh9rwsCtxhu5JJZbk2da0exd2jBCAvApmBcqFADhQEOWO2y9etJRJqMK5aKdoL471eGHDKoQ/s708/Screenshot%202022-06-07%20at%2012.31.40.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="462" data-original-width="708" height="261" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMR0NPnZWi5OF-gR3s89UEkup2cdLRBz3OccZkoeMN9zvAMP43wUlmiNVPzjK-iZxiDt1gticzC2OhNfCWkdWhSutp3g2cxHnKjmLpO-H0IrwRKonvw4Hh9rwsCtxhu5JJZbk2da0exd2jBCAvApmBcqFADhQEOWO2y9etJRJqMK5aKdoL471eGHDKoQ/w400-h261/Screenshot%202022-06-07%20at%2012.31.40.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 9. Data extract from week ending May 8th 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br />The number of Covid-19 deaths has been lower this week at 218. We can see the numbers for each vaccination status, noting that 30.3% of those who died with Covid-19 were unvaccinated and 69.7& were vaccinated, almost all double or triple vaccinated.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><b style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">Week May 8 to May 15</span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span><p></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh6gw3sbUwL4Xw9FB9jiBaHFNB5xVSjinJs7tid4JYdc8F4kqQr4vpumfVZERPOTxxk9-hn3PZDp1dZr-srgAlRK1abbZvB9fbFmSiSOAGmQ7RRLHIS6CBIa-2VawrSQRRy4HZKdthZ4_if1EW-jowrBkwV7aN_CefrjyHEVHYIStKMnMpAuU0r0p5zg/s700/Screenshot%202022-06-07%20at%2012.40.35.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="460" data-original-width="700" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh6gw3sbUwL4Xw9FB9jiBaHFNB5xVSjinJs7tid4JYdc8F4kqQr4vpumfVZERPOTxxk9-hn3PZDp1dZr-srgAlRK1abbZvB9fbFmSiSOAGmQ7RRLHIS6CBIa-2VawrSQRRy4HZKdthZ4_if1EW-jowrBkwV7aN_CefrjyHEVHYIStKMnMpAuU0r0p5zg/w400-h263/Screenshot%202022-06-07%20at%2012.40.35.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 10. Data extract from week ending May 15th 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">During this week there were 412 deaths, 10.9% in the unvaccinated, 89.1% in the vaccinated, the great majority being triple vaccinated.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Week May 15 to May 22</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="font-size: x-large; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxY4KeyFbtmB-ps79zhmBjIzMru23nohR2BooLt4Oq262mwuhhDSJCYjjwsqz93Cmgo-DsKuLd81dty5YbyOaZgT-ndziaPeV8cAB2BeQgsh41s77cVLlOHqb4sqLfXGZfLpGmUsFqDWakPGZ6k2JEqZMsZf0FWYhSadN8benDY9_PBARFvbTIwXf0rA/s732/Screenshot%202022-06-09%20at%2017.39.39.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="468" data-original-width="732" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxY4KeyFbtmB-ps79zhmBjIzMru23nohR2BooLt4Oq262mwuhhDSJCYjjwsqz93Cmgo-DsKuLd81dty5YbyOaZgT-ndziaPeV8cAB2BeQgsh41s77cVLlOHqb4sqLfXGZfLpGmUsFqDWakPGZ6k2JEqZMsZf0FWYhSadN8benDY9_PBARFvbTIwXf0rA/w400-h256/Screenshot%202022-06-09%20at%2017.39.39.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Figure 11. Data extract from week ending May 22nd 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><b style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">During this week, the sixth of the series, there were 459 deaths, 16.3% in the unvaccinated, 83.7% in the vaccinated, the great majority being triple vaccinated.</span></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Most Covid-19 deaths are in the vaccinated</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">During this time period we have seen in Canada a consistent pattern of most Covid-19 deaths occuring in the vaccinated, especially in the triple vaccinated. This is of course the opposite of the official narrative, but unlike the official narrative it is based on up-to-date facts.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There is a problem. The deaths are numbers of people but we are not told of their ages. Is the age distribution the same in each of the vaccinations groups? We do not have the data. There is a possibility that the high death rate in the triple vaccinated might be influenced by them being older, but we cannot assume this to be the case. We must accept the data available, expecting refinement as the data are refined.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Composite data during six weeks</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">We can extract numbers from the tables shown above, firstly to show some variation in the number of Covid-19 de</span><span style="font-family: arial;">aths each week, Figure 12. The mean average is 361, which is 52 per day.</span></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqcH2oXcosofBmnaPTmxa6I5_6E5hbWKG85dlPny4shcLxaSJKrcZiyyRB0zywPUU3EoNCXFMgJu1vlfpXvo4UAYkO1awy6w9vCIGy-tbrS3EH3rBjIfdzLk4JpUqjuFuF3FsMokeCaZLpB6T9bvrPw1TFqB3hPZFAABA2N2Q8hp_aM62orsizYkrBvg/s1124/Screenshot%202022-06-09%20at%2017.50.58.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="632" data-original-width="1124" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqcH2oXcosofBmnaPTmxa6I5_6E5hbWKG85dlPny4shcLxaSJKrcZiyyRB0zywPUU3EoNCXFMgJu1vlfpXvo4UAYkO1awy6w9vCIGy-tbrS3EH3rBjIfdzLk4JpUqjuFuF3FsMokeCaZLpB6T9bvrPw1TFqB3hPZFAABA2N2Q8hp_aM62orsizYkrBvg/w400-h225/Screenshot%202022-06-09%20at%2017.50.58.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 12. Covid-19 deaths weekly, Canada 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Figure 13 shows the proportion during six recent weeks of those dying who had received at least one vaccination. The average mean is 78%, corresspondingly </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">22%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> have been</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> unvaccinated. This is not what we are told.</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrVc4Udirttcxc6SayCEXOOvGvfeFzGJ6JrH81C4AmhMMHXy5hxCfVGFqoW1TsNIT32qgLRDPfwMSR_FWlJccIl3XSObNZbj4NWMRgC3PMjOAspV3CIaXipXGQ5Mu8ZKqyDNPYYqv8EjPCJ9DolfxVUEdWVkVpTB_JUTxyh7RDlLtgIinDLnnMajPBAQ/s1178/Screenshot%202022-06-09%20at%2018.07.24.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="696" data-original-width="1178" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrVc4Udirttcxc6SayCEXOOvGvfeFzGJ6JrH81C4AmhMMHXy5hxCfVGFqoW1TsNIT32qgLRDPfwMSR_FWlJccIl3XSObNZbj4NWMRgC3PMjOAspV3CIaXipXGQ5Mu8ZKqyDNPYYqv8EjPCJ9DolfxVUEdWVkVpTB_JUTxyh7RDlLtgIinDLnnMajPBAQ/w400-h236/Screenshot%202022-06-09%20at%2018.07.24.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 13. Percentage of Covid-19 deaths in the vaccinated</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>We can also see the variation of the number of Covid-19 deaths based on the number of vaccinations received.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjywhoRioR4rGOFTylC0HxW5lHgoQwB3PmkUQXzAHrQY4cIaKa2ynixPBx-jD9lWoD9fuqV_onFrd00GvNfqtxMVc5yOiL_Edy16XOJWC_YpIo6Y9zLrdWr5AnOoIwkrJXuL1N0XOKyvHwjsL2AH5tLGsqjJfvFD_I-co3qYNu4MoVSePM4kn8vR7riXQ/s1408/Screenshot%202022-06-09%20at%2018.24.15.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="726" data-original-width="1408" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjywhoRioR4rGOFTylC0HxW5lHgoQwB3PmkUQXzAHrQY4cIaKa2ynixPBx-jD9lWoD9fuqV_onFrd00GvNfqtxMVc5yOiL_Edy16XOJWC_YpIo6Y9zLrdWr5AnOoIwkrJXuL1N0XOKyvHwjsL2AH5tLGsqjJfvFD_I-co3qYNu4MoVSePM4kn8vR7riXQ/w400-h206/Screenshot%202022-06-09%20at%2018.24.15.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 14. Number of Covid-19 deaths in Canada by vaccinations status <br />April 10th to May 22nd</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Most of those dying have been vaccinated, especially triple vaccinated. But....</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Interpretation requires Caution</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is necessary to remember the extent of vaccination within the population of Canada, seen in Figure 6. Details are shown in Figure 15.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPQJirYCfOGdfpCakKy6Idyu_bJgkLxy9ZARAuHpqqEkE9-bYNCNvk-H9HIcBRWer-mXnWzPbah5dFJGC-IWSlnEGVCK5T3ULXfVU4SiSVPcLWnfCaVGGyODo4h-NSjuW60UoZ1w0D520ZM4To4owBpiJzpneH07P4OPe56W35yzUDAcmFCS4Yh42hng/s696/Screenshot%202022-06-09%20at%2019.08.59.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="248" data-original-width="696" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPQJirYCfOGdfpCakKy6Idyu_bJgkLxy9ZARAuHpqqEkE9-bYNCNvk-H9HIcBRWer-mXnWzPbah5dFJGC-IWSlnEGVCK5T3ULXfVU4SiSVPcLWnfCaVGGyODo4h-NSjuW60UoZ1w0D520ZM4To4owBpiJzpneH07P4OPe56W35yzUDAcmFCS4Yh42hng/w400-h143/Screenshot%202022-06-09%20at%2019.08.59.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 15. Vaccination status of the population</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This is very important. The basic data presented above in Figure 14 has no real meaning unless it is standardised for the number of people in the vaccination group. We can achieve this by dividing the number of deaths in each group by the percentage of the population in each group. This is looking at ratios between the four categories of vaccination status. The results can be seen in Figure 16.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipW0pzp1DulJ789zXC67u2CXxdEEbiznNmkXq202STZhKyK-kp2l-6-1PNW2E0NgwC0F3Jz0QlZ8LnlHrLQj79hch454RZo_K0i8OWGEYqjjapr0QRYYz_BEv7vni_HfK-SZdr2JMFGlXIcH38Uk9me0IuGtkVsSBalPvU3y3NVO5wKhLDYTh7TdN4TA/s600/Screenshot%202022-06-10%20at%2021.28.16.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="342" data-original-width="600" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipW0pzp1DulJ789zXC67u2CXxdEEbiznNmkXq202STZhKyK-kp2l-6-1PNW2E0NgwC0F3Jz0QlZ8LnlHrLQj79hch454RZo_K0i8OWGEYqjjapr0QRYYz_BEv7vni_HfK-SZdr2JMFGlXIcH38Uk9me0IuGtkVsSBalPvU3y3NVO5wKhLDYTh7TdN4TA/w400-h228/Screenshot%202022-06-10%20at%2021.28.16.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 16. Corrected effect of vaccines in Canada</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This can also be expressed graphically, Figure 17.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKBWp0UuV-oUg8daHdGjj4ck0PzTP1LGCX-zho6DbhhIycFxHox4tMH7XbcCXT0cujR8Oo37TOFE84ZtmgN2BeJKugmjvXR42nZstd0bPFTiSBOUvL1_fB7lPAZiiECg9f85-mDYg3HIYx_BpbZJYSJZnlUP9e_47O2H-BaiziLhFmjgnJTe82peqexw/s1134/Screenshot%202022-06-10%20at%2021.11.17.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="742" data-original-width="1134" height="261" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKBWp0UuV-oUg8daHdGjj4ck0PzTP1LGCX-zho6DbhhIycFxHox4tMH7XbcCXT0cujR8Oo37TOFE84ZtmgN2BeJKugmjvXR42nZstd0bPFTiSBOUvL1_fB7lPAZiiECg9f85-mDYg3HIYx_BpbZJYSJZnlUP9e_47O2H-BaiziLhFmjgnJTe82peqexw/w400-h261/Screenshot%202022-06-10%20at%2021.11.17.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 17. Effect of vaccines in Canada, April 10th to May 22nd 2022<br />adjusted for proportion of population vaccinated.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We can see that in data corrected for prevalence of vaccination, the Covid-19 deaths are higher in the unvaccinated group compared to the three vaccinated groups. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There appears to be mortality benefit from one or two vaccinations, but the benefit is lost in those with three vaccinations.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Conclusions</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">My understanding of this is that each vaccination creates an intense immune stimulation, its very purpose. However it is known that immune activation comsumes the essential Vitamin D, a molecule of which can be used only once and then it is irreversibly de-activated. It follows, but is as yet untested or unpublished, that successive vaccinations will consume Vitamin D and deficiency will result. Reduction of immunity will follow, including response to further vaccinations.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Vaccinations require Vitamin D, and so perhaps all we need is correction of widespread VItamin D deficiency to optimise natural immunity. This would reverse the apparent ineffectiveness of triple vaccination.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Vaccinations must be considered to be at least disappointing in their effectiveness. We have no controlled trials on which to judge effectiveness and safety, but observational data, such as from Canada, are disturbing. In many countries Covid-19 cases and deaths are higher at present than they were in 2021, Figure 18. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYB-1Vmg75PFEHclt80RHR-ImEr9pGgzfusO62Rq725fN1WQyaIGgEvC10IIzEiL0iVv30dEhkiBELPV7YaOEkLbvyJyPLjPVr65MlQO4y0_fgGNEh1Ysj8munDwkuFUTUD5lzHXZwVPXNgvJavdOPIMfZm-L50WxOdW73t-50NzMsxuXL_N3_ZH97cg/s382/Screenshot%202022-06-22%20at%2018.11.22.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="158" data-original-width="382" height="165" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYB-1Vmg75PFEHclt80RHR-ImEr9pGgzfusO62Rq725fN1WQyaIGgEvC10IIzEiL0iVv30dEhkiBELPV7YaOEkLbvyJyPLjPVr65MlQO4y0_fgGNEh1Ysj8munDwkuFUTUD5lzHXZwVPXNgvJavdOPIMfZm-L50WxOdW73t-50NzMsxuXL_N3_ZH97cg/w400-h165/Screenshot%202022-06-22%20at%2018.11.22.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Figure 18. UK Covid-19 cases on June 21st and 22nd <br />2020, 2021, 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Some countries have seen the emergence of significant Covid-19 numbers only since the third vaccinations were introduced, for example in Australia, Figure 19.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHObkNDGuxKLAcyvAODKe21B8lE6jRQC9aV0ctXT8JkufcEX3S3QMzbqKM2C6XmjHQOZ4NiaqJZFefRE8HlZbRWj7Y4Bo556tuPacIjuRQcKwg2WFVhJzRNT00uRGB2DvlcJBEyrfNiUHTM8vA_Pi4b3CSZ3CALLHMpg-vwNuh9O_4rneWK3vsL8Onag/s1562/Screenshot%202022-06-22%20at%2008.39.02.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="998" data-original-width="1562" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHObkNDGuxKLAcyvAODKe21B8lE6jRQC9aV0ctXT8JkufcEX3S3QMzbqKM2C6XmjHQOZ4NiaqJZFefRE8HlZbRWj7Y4Bo556tuPacIjuRQcKwg2WFVhJzRNT00uRGB2DvlcJBEyrfNiUHTM8vA_Pi4b3CSZ3CALLHMpg-vwNuh9O_4rneWK3vsL8Onag/w640-h408/Screenshot%202022-06-22%20at%2008.39.02.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 19. Australia, Covid-19 cases each day</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>But we are dealing only with Covid-19 cases and deaths. When we look at total deaths, and cases and deaths from other specific diseases, the picture becomes increasingly disturbing. </b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Post-script: week of May 22nd to May 29th.</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The data from Canada for the week May 22 to May 29 has just become available. The summary table and the full table are shown below, but I have not incorporated them into previous summary figures.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8tDdTMrLsif5kFWP3f3sGojTIxUhPn0vFLExocZnHANzM_VykLRR4rtSqCva7DnfAMVBQo59knYGKJT3UniXGMylHwVf_2vj9C6JdVSWt8U0UCPgW-MD32cev4-o72dGsDfpIOTfzNyaR6d_B-Gisk8npHyT4OtjbFwgimlybc_aLOkos5_RFJ4pDDw/s608/Screenshot%202022-06-17%20at%2018.07.50.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="470" data-original-width="608" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8tDdTMrLsif5kFWP3f3sGojTIxUhPn0vFLExocZnHANzM_VykLRR4rtSqCva7DnfAMVBQo59knYGKJT3UniXGMylHwVf_2vj9C6JdVSWt8U0UCPgW-MD32cev4-o72dGsDfpIOTfzNyaR6d_B-Gisk8npHyT4OtjbFwgimlybc_aLOkos5_RFJ4pDDw/s320/Screenshot%202022-06-17%20at%2018.07.50.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 20, Covid-19 deaths in Canada occurring during the week May 22 to 29 </span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Figure 20 shows the numbers of deaths for each vaccination group, and the percentages. We can see that during this week 95.3% of Covid-19 deaths were in the vaccinated and only 4.7% were in the vaccinated. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Once again we must remember that 85% of the population had received at least one vaccination and only 15% were unvaccinated. We can adjust for this as before to indicate death numbers as relative rather than less helpful "raw" numbers. These are the raw numbers divided by the proportion of vaccinations status, as in Figure 15. We see the result in Figure 21.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK0YDbuCpxyaqgnvXsQjAN3U8tRi4OIJ8j7qvptADHTv2U829p8ChbOGpkg41VP0MVT5qkuflOgsXhm0jKuUfT0VHSgz-zVAsoaKliG6lV-AdP2v6m1TahhHSqBpzbjW62BCQsAIP1HcXLrqfoL4ndaETnYijGxZHfsmaQ2-7XX4LWHvs9bR20qJzHBw/s1260/Screenshot%202022-06-18%20at%2019.01.14.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="996" data-original-width="1260" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK0YDbuCpxyaqgnvXsQjAN3U8tRi4OIJ8j7qvptADHTv2U829p8ChbOGpkg41VP0MVT5qkuflOgsXhm0jKuUfT0VHSgz-zVAsoaKliG6lV-AdP2v6m1TahhHSqBpzbjW62BCQsAIP1HcXLrqfoL4ndaETnYijGxZHfsmaQ2-7XX4LWHvs9bR20qJzHBw/w400-h316/Screenshot%202022-06-18%20at%2019.01.14.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 21. Adjusted relative numbers of Covid-19 deaths during the week.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Once again we can see the failure of vaccination, especially multiple vaccinations, to protect against Covid-19 deaths.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This might have been prevented by correction of Vitamin D deficiency during the pandemic. It is not too late for public health initiatives to enhance natural immunity by using Vitamin D, especially as numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths remain stubornly high.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdW6_G37PVrKpmukbY6zu715t6xX_HA8btIvO_9WnBFJjnN0R1O1QF5FTkaqB1czQl9V9Ir-PYj9JXLu5hWwXczNvP8oLOoArithvNyomT44l7sgDUWjEAkjQemjn84R9rvCWZD5fowzFo7Ry-28cfhEj_XJ4jJs_E0m8QqpdchiqGhQ5w3XPtnPhDDA/s1078/Screenshot%202021-11-10%20at%2017.48.53.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="704" data-original-width="1078" height="261" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdW6_G37PVrKpmukbY6zu715t6xX_HA8btIvO_9WnBFJjnN0R1O1QF5FTkaqB1czQl9V9Ir-PYj9JXLu5hWwXczNvP8oLOoArithvNyomT44l7sgDUWjEAkjQemjn84R9rvCWZD5fowzFo7Ry-28cfhEj_XJ4jJs_E0m8QqpdchiqGhQ5w3XPtnPhDDA/w400-h261/Screenshot%202021-11-10%20at%2017.48.53.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><i>It might not be possible to post comments on this Blog post.</i></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><i><br /></i></b></div></div><div><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p></div></div></div>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-70139511449918992122022-05-24T02:39:00.005-07:002022-05-25T01:00:32.064-07:00Covid-19 & VItamin D: Canada –vaccination effects in April 2022<p> <span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 11px;"> </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdprawpHpRk6ZiDWdohs7zdpB73joIf_D9IJjtxfLXKnx8Ke3rT1dAa3_MYvRQrCgaJthGnSFNcNeiRSY8lpaWvjgyPA_OsxQNPe-mO1I5PQXJecELAzklui-3AK0gC3LABXmz25zKUcI-kqynhPvON9Q_wok3c_hf7lkKWEjIL169mEV_bQz9FLW5gA/s578/Screenshot%202022-05-15%20at%2022.06.56.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="308" data-original-width="578" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdprawpHpRk6ZiDWdohs7zdpB73joIf_D9IJjtxfLXKnx8Ke3rT1dAa3_MYvRQrCgaJthGnSFNcNeiRSY8lpaWvjgyPA_OsxQNPe-mO1I5PQXJecELAzklui-3AK0gC3LABXmz25zKUcI-kqynhPvON9Q_wok3c_hf7lkKWEjIL169mEV_bQz9FLW5gA/w400-h214/Screenshot%202022-05-15%20at%2022.06.56.png" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Can this be true?</b></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Yes, it is true. </b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">When I saw this headline, I thought that it could not possibly be true. The obvious way for me to find out the truth was to look at official data from Public Health Agency Canada (PHAC). This I did, and I would like to share the data with you. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">This Blog post involves a lot of numbers, but only simple sums, what we would have learned in primary schools. The Figures might look complicated but please bear with me and the steps are really quite easy. I have simplified the data tables from PHA Canada, initially concentrating on deaths only and ignoring gender. I show the full tables from the PHAC reports as I want to emphasise that I am using authentic official data that is open to the public. My numbers are not fiction or misinformation, but the truth.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Vaccinations (strictly mRNA injections) were first introduced in December 2020, and the reports from PHA Canada show cumulative numbers of serious Covid-19, hospital admissions, and deaths since then. During the first six months very few people had been vaccinated, and then only once. The number increased rapidly during 2021 and most people with second vaccinations, for many a third following in 2022. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">In the reports, vaccination status is recorded as follows:</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: large;">No vaccination, (Vax 0)</span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">One vaccination, but very recent (<21 days) so that it could not be considered to have a defensive effect.</span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">Part vaccinated, that is one vaccination more than 21 days previously (Vax 1)</span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">Fully vaccinated, that is two vaccinations (Vax 2)</span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">Fully vaccinated plus additional ("booster") (Vax 3)</span></li></ul><p></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Public Health Agency Canada (PHAC) data</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>April 10th 2022</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">The analysis by the PHA Canada identified 2,091,432 patients ("cases") who had severe outcomes from Covid-19 by April 10th 2022. Of these 85,267 had been admitted to hospital, that is 0.75% of those who were seriously ill. 1</span><span style="font-size: large;"><span>5,775 died,</span><span> which is</span><span> 18.5% of those admitted to hospital, a similar proportion to results from other nations.</span></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Of the 15,775 who died, at the time of death 9,511 were unvaccinated, 2,770 were fully vaccinated (two vaccinations) and 1835 had an additional booster. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNwcUjdV2jQvCzKmKm52ci9hs_8OX3aCQ-PppbfemmQbS8ymLpYZT_DbWTTELDL9dL455uG36znLUD1FpKb3hg5iORGhBx3slv5aA9X0QTVW6DQqr4viV8P3Q_n2vBh9Wp5t1k8PHBe20S4YlyqIIyIxKH1Xq6Yd7LQqI9X2jgm5lqwCMZayWx-oCKuA/s1412/Screenshot%202022-05-15%20at%2022.08.10.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="888" data-original-width="1412" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNwcUjdV2jQvCzKmKm52ci9hs_8OX3aCQ-PppbfemmQbS8ymLpYZT_DbWTTELDL9dL455uG36znLUD1FpKb3hg5iORGhBx3slv5aA9X0QTVW6DQqr4viV8P3Q_n2vBh9Wp5t1k8PHBe20S4YlyqIIyIxKH1Xq6Yd7LQqI9X2jgm5lqwCMZayWx-oCKuA/w640-h402/Screenshot%202022-05-15%20at%2022.08.10.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Figure 1. Details from PHAC report April 10th 2022</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">We can see the details in Figure 1. Concentrate on "Deaths". A simplification will follow in Figure 2.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"> 60.3% of those who died between December 2020 and April 10th 2022 were unvaccinated, whereas 11.63% were fully vaccinated plus booster. 5.5% were partially vaccinated (x1) and 17.6% were fully vaccinated (x2). It looks at first sight as though being unvaccinated is a serious disadvantage and that vaccinations are life-saving. However this is cumulative data from December 2020, at a time when no-one was vaccinated. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusions cannot be drawn from results over a time of such major change. If we want to know the effectiveness of vaccinations, ideally we must look at the results of a randomised controlled trial (RCT), in which all subjects would start and end the study at the same time. However, no RCT has been conducted for long enough to assess the effect on severe disease and death. It is therefore necessary look at observational data of high quality, such as provided by the PHAC weekly reports.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Because data from December 2020 to April 2022 have been included, and with major changes taking place in the number vaccinated, the results can have little meaning at the present time. The overall result as outlined cannot be used to predict risk to individuals now or in the immediate future. In the early months when most deaths occured, the vast majority of the population would inevitably have been unvaccinated. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>What is the effect of vaccination "NOW" ?</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">It is essential to look at “now”, as this is much more relevant to us as individuals than what happened more than two years ago. "Now" means we are looking at data that we can use to help us decide what to do for the best. If we want to look at “now”, we can look at the official Canadian data and in particular what has happened during the single recent week between the reports of April 10 (Figure 1) and April 17 (Figure 2) 2022.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;">We can summarise that on week April 10th the cumulative deaths were:</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Total deaths 15,775</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Unvaccinated 9511</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Vaccination <21 days, not expected to be effective, 783</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Partially vaccinated (x1) 876</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Fully vaccinated (x2) 2770</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Fully vaccinated plus booster (x3) 1835</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>The report of April 17th </b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipNtM_OZn_lr8FKgWnZZdvo4pQlpCRzJhE2KYHpaoSkAuQPyuKFvPOn_U8oKSpoI64nd8I2IQniyJEeV43siQwKHQchAEQ7-QVcOTxjDGJjJgm2INp2gG4L9ihvTpaIFAJ0Ic4j9AEeux0gT28lbP6uMCMxRG3D_H1bJYPfVLTlJJ3PcWN3qcCXaDk9w/s1392/Screenshot%202022-05-15%20at%2022.08.46.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="728" data-original-width="1392" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipNtM_OZn_lr8FKgWnZZdvo4pQlpCRzJhE2KYHpaoSkAuQPyuKFvPOn_U8oKSpoI64nd8I2IQniyJEeV43siQwKHQchAEQ7-QVcOTxjDGJjJgm2INp2gG4L9ihvTpaIFAJ0Ic4j9AEeux0gT28lbP6uMCMxRG3D_H1bJYPfVLTlJJ3PcWN3qcCXaDk9w/w640-h334/Screenshot%202022-05-15%20at%2022.08.46.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: -webkit-standard;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Figure 2. Details from PHAC report April 17th 2022</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: large;"><br />If once again we concentrate on deaths, we can see the following results:</span><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Total deaths 16,002</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Unvaccinated 9512</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Vaccination <21 days, not expected to be effective, 782</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Partially vaccinated (x1) 881</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Fully vaccinated (x2) 2832</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Fully vaccinated plus booster (x3) 1995</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Therefore the total number of Covid deaths during the specific week April 10th to April 17th increased from 15,775 to 16,002, which is an increase of 227.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: large;"><b>What </b></span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;"><b>happened during the week April 10th to April 17th</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Covid-19 deaths among the unvaccinated increased from 9511 to 9512, an increase during the week of just one. Only 1 of the 227 Covid-19 deaths was a person who had not been vaccinated. <b><i>Let this true but unpublicised fact sink in</i>.</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">The deaths among the very recently vaccinated (not expected to be protected) for some reason went down from 783 to 782, perhaps a printing error rather than a resurrection.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Deaths among the partial vaccinated (x1) increased from 876 to 881, which is 5 additional deaths.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Deaths among the fully vaccinated (x2) increased from 2770 to 2832, which is 62 additional deaths.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>The number of “fully vaccinated with an additional dose” (x3) who died increased from 1835 to 1995. The increase </span><span>during this week </span><span>was therefore 1,995-1,835 which is 160.</span></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Of the 227 Covid-19 deaths during this week in April, 226 had been vaccinated at least once. This is 226 x 100 </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span>÷ </span><span>227 = <b>99.6%.</b></span></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>These results are summarised in Figure 3. You will appreciate that we are dealing with elementary grade sums.</span></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRJQbivsffg1GN7_6jBs_efXHUrZ3xaDcpZZlzJ-xOhJ7T7Wx-1-CGoU6cCzl_XGqMjisOnVa2aQuTYfYTLNL6aXWEewrZ7Qsb7f8lIZwJdQ2P-Ko-NpgntbLWUzI9fxNFyCT6DcGuxFO8n_RIp4RfTTxaOIEoHXUhNBsGdQWV0mHNbK4dPRO1Hru9Xw/s892/Screenshot%202022-05-21%20at%2022.12.59.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="892" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRJQbivsffg1GN7_6jBs_efXHUrZ3xaDcpZZlzJ-xOhJ7T7Wx-1-CGoU6cCzl_XGqMjisOnVa2aQuTYfYTLNL6aXWEewrZ7Qsb7f8lIZwJdQ2P-Ko-NpgntbLWUzI9fxNFyCT6DcGuxFO8n_RIp4RfTTxaOIEoHXUhNBsGdQWV0mHNbK4dPRO1Hru9Xw/w640-h258/Screenshot%202022-05-21%20at%2022.12.59.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: -webkit-standard;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Figure 3. Summary of PHAC reports of April 10th and 17th 2022</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>The more vaccinations, the greater the risk of death </b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;">We can calculate the relative percentage increase of Covid-19 deaths during the week of April 10th to April 17th 2022. It is the number of deaths during the week divided by the April 10th cumulative deaths (the baseline) expressed as a percentage with two decimal points. </span><span style="font-size: large;">These results are shown in Figure 4.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8hoR47vpV5GS9zcOCa-yYdITi0MuM-BtONUU7gslBBCfHfIdz2wLzWymfOFX1oX7BsZ1V-hx9UzOq5Z7MljDzfwgWuS5yagiZ3nsbpmkNv7t7X1eBw0_aMm_R294Dn9PoNi2A9aJV00iEWWth54ZPvJlTbI2hloLNQJPPdz5KwjFJMiap-55Pn9VV_Q/s1098/Screenshot%202022-05-22%20at%2009.35.44.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="434" data-original-width="1098" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8hoR47vpV5GS9zcOCa-yYdITi0MuM-BtONUU7gslBBCfHfIdz2wLzWymfOFX1oX7BsZ1V-hx9UzOq5Z7MljDzfwgWuS5yagiZ3nsbpmkNv7t7X1eBw0_aMm_R294Dn9PoNi2A9aJV00iEWWth54ZPvJlTbI2hloLNQJPPdz5KwjFJMiap-55Pn9VV_Q/w640-h252/Screenshot%202022-05-22%20at%2009.35.44.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Figure 4. Percentage changes in deaths between April 10th and 17th 2022</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;">The overall increase was 1.44%. It was 0.01% in the unvaccinated, 0.57% in the single vaccinated, 2.24% in the double vaccinated, and 8.72% in the triple vaccinated.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;">We can look at this is graphical format in Figure 5:</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1VPr8DiONvyc6frgPAIo5JNzChwdKmbOczsqDt1csHdi2mh0IxQAtZ-xaddfWIoDN06VeWg2SKjpdnKD4pjG8yd0F4ke9b--i9_nXvNKs9fIsIfNOWbK1lFVmohTxQnyPZZ0DL3zVUWeudyNi-BzQBCEsszTgjyLBIMWqs7tM_wvggq2sS2I7Nd_u7A/s1166/Screenshot%202022-05-23%20at%2013.10.53.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="1166" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1VPr8DiONvyc6frgPAIo5JNzChwdKmbOczsqDt1csHdi2mh0IxQAtZ-xaddfWIoDN06VeWg2SKjpdnKD4pjG8yd0F4ke9b--i9_nXvNKs9fIsIfNOWbK1lFVmohTxQnyPZZ0DL3zVUWeudyNi-BzQBCEsszTgjyLBIMWqs7tM_wvggq2sS2I7Nd_u7A/w640-h434/Screenshot%202022-05-23%20at%2013.10.53.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Figure 5. Percentage increase in Covid-19 deaths between April 10th and 17th 2022 <br />according to vaccination status</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;">This effect of vaccination on Covid-19 deaths can only be viewed as alarming.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>April 17th to May 1st 2022</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;">It is important to look at other weeks so as to make certain that we are not dealing with a major printing or other error. I have now been able to look at the most recent report by <a href="https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html?topic=tilelink">PHA Canada</a>, which takes us up to May 1st, two weeks after April 17th. Figure 6 displays the data.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1u_YwUy80Jenz1IkN-ZT4WMZpMfHHrfzvoHuf3otm_Ke7RlCbJxSz21JLLXAXaPXOv_WrSxDYtheSodm4-JY2QxlEzfCayrhklvoP2D2nPD5HhV6LT0fxhkXzBJ4lV0pPx3FaL1PCpDzkJnj9UNRV0lgmvKTK-wkVEDETDOPbL2Aw97rkhd8QaDseFw/s1970/Screenshot%202022-05-23%20at%2017.28.14.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="880" data-original-width="1970" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1u_YwUy80Jenz1IkN-ZT4WMZpMfHHrfzvoHuf3otm_Ke7RlCbJxSz21JLLXAXaPXOv_WrSxDYtheSodm4-JY2QxlEzfCayrhklvoP2D2nPD5HhV6LT0fxhkXzBJ4lV0pPx3FaL1PCpDzkJnj9UNRV0lgmvKTK-wkVEDETDOPbL2Aw97rkhd8QaDseFw/w640-h286/Screenshot%202022-05-23%20at%2017.28.14.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: -webkit-standard;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Figure 6. Details from PHAC report May 1st 2022</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;">We now need to add this to the summary of the previous week, and this can be seen in Figure 7.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha5b6QRWV0j2wDU_Ms2QP_XMvL2vXxpZjE9kRvEhTxntti3ForhMzxHx_dWCCGW6eJQie41j6kZg0BDF8U8q-jkJyKMj6q0b-EC9FUUKKXb2R2icdSKKCOMY8eFw8XW0okrt24RHpOqPIQ/s1774/Screenshot+2022-05-22+at+22.28.53.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="440" data-original-width="1774" height="158" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha5b6QRWV0j2wDU_Ms2QP_XMvL2vXxpZjE9kRvEhTxntti3ForhMzxHx_dWCCGW6eJQie41j6kZg0BDF8U8q-jkJyKMj6q0b-EC9FUUKKXb2R2icdSKKCOMY8eFw8XW0okrt24RHpOqPIQ/w640-h158/Screenshot+2022-05-22+at+22.28.53.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: -webkit-standard;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Figure 7. Details from PHAC report May 1st 2022 added to results<br /> from April 10th and April 17th</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;">During these two weeks, April 17th to May 1st, there were an additional 1696 Covid-19 deaths, 6.2% increase among the unvaccinated and 55.1% in those vaccinated once, twice or three times, added together. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;">For comparison with the previous week we can express these numbers as an average of 3.1% and 27.5% increases per week. The greatest weekly increase was 17.1% in the triple vaccinated.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Once again we can see a gradient of increasing risk of death with the number of vaccinations given (Figure 8).</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiurqPkPAsFek1RjZEqEozjZHYOCraPUb7Mg-2oQuhGGUhJykbyMK193sBmR3vOle1AYLLGE64Jy_j5nRWDOJHw5-v9FdyOHLuaHtKLVuEOOBIb790qunQa7iUONCbAbbwn7EJ1DrbccuXXwU6THXWjtxRpeU12PixaCVJ_KlSUoKL9eKoHTXwvmMDBGA/s1166/Screenshot%202022-05-23%20at%2013.02.00.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="1166" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiurqPkPAsFek1RjZEqEozjZHYOCraPUb7Mg-2oQuhGGUhJykbyMK193sBmR3vOle1AYLLGE64Jy_j5nRWDOJHw5-v9FdyOHLuaHtKLVuEOOBIb790qunQa7iUONCbAbbwn7EJ1DrbccuXXwU6THXWjtxRpeU12PixaCVJ_KlSUoKL9eKoHTXwvmMDBGA/w640-h434/Screenshot%202022-05-23%20at%2013.02.00.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Figure 8. Percentage weekly increase in Covid-19 deaths <br />between April 17th and May 1st 2022 <br />according to vaccination status</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"></p><br /><p></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;">What is also alarming is that in the week April 10th to April 17th there were 227 additional deaths, whereas in the two weeks to May 1st there were 1696 additional deaths, or 848 per week. This is almost a quadrupling of Covid-19 deaths.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Why has this not been reported by PHAC?</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">It looks as though in April 2022 there was a considerable advantage in not being vaccinated. Unfortunately it is not possible to become de-vaccinated.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">This analysis is very simple to those who can locate the data. It could have been undertaken week by week by Public Health Agency Canada. I wonder why this has not happened!</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">It would have been of great help to the population of Canada (and the rest of the world), but of course it might not have been so helpful to those who aim to repeatedly vaccinate the entire population of the world. We hear from official sources that the vaccinations are highly effective and are very safe. We are told that more vaccinations are esential, the fourth and now the fifth. We are not told the details from Canada.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Covid-19 hospital admissions</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: large;">You will have noticed that the tables from PHA Canada provided additional data concerning gender and hospital admissions, I have avoided these so far, for the purpose of simplicity. However the hospital admission data shows the same patterns as deaths. I will abbreviate the data </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;">display by just showing the summary data and the graphs, but you can refer to Figures 1,2,6 to see the PHAC numbers.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwn-BQklL-BGVbixnsTd3d4KKoc2X3D16QhFq7tyQHI5-HVr39V-GmfiN9ATHgmFnAc4wEv3HKgwNQkJZH4Hg19UElIs1oXGBzW67p5quMtFm04g_tVW2A0WvBESPOXOgnkpCtx13mLP7efgjPc6soq8VhWEtvJAzMK79iU8ujdl3vVrEgd3QD5mmCAg/s1410/Screenshot%202022-05-23%20at%2018.17.05.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="564" data-original-width="1410" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwn-BQklL-BGVbixnsTd3d4KKoc2X3D16QhFq7tyQHI5-HVr39V-GmfiN9ATHgmFnAc4wEv3HKgwNQkJZH4Hg19UElIs1oXGBzW67p5quMtFm04g_tVW2A0WvBESPOXOgnkpCtx13mLP7efgjPc6soq8VhWEtvJAzMK79iU8ujdl3vVrEgd3QD5mmCAg/w640-h256/Screenshot%202022-05-23%20at%2018.17.05.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Figure 9. Covid-19 Hospital admissions, weeks of April 10–17 and April 17 – May 1st</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;">In Figure 9 the data again show the greatest increase in hospital admissions due to serious Covid-19 in those fully vaccinated, and with a booster (Vax x3).</span><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;">Figure 10 shows graphically the increase of hospital admissions according to vaccination status, the week of April 10th to April 17th. Once again there is a gradient of hospital admission risk according to vaccination status.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0UFgcARphC11tpFukE7rcx9kZD9b5y9p_4PEfK0q21Q6FVHf_k7cN212POGpvG-OixMOGsAckaeY1S-n9I-Y5d_G0n8gO9imzL9Tu6huoTkwsnx9k1UEhFyFlGKAbU5juYRImGVWz3hF3gMXX1AUZ4vHJdpDyy8vbv_LAJ5yhsRhp_YLkdx3EN2TOOA/s1132/Screenshot%202022-05-23%20at%2018.25.53.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="1132" height="435" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0UFgcARphC11tpFukE7rcx9kZD9b5y9p_4PEfK0q21Q6FVHf_k7cN212POGpvG-OixMOGsAckaeY1S-n9I-Y5d_G0n8gO9imzL9Tu6huoTkwsnx9k1UEhFyFlGKAbU5juYRImGVWz3hF3gMXX1AUZ4vHJdpDyy8vbv_LAJ5yhsRhp_YLkdx3EN2TOOA/w640-h435/Screenshot%202022-05-23%20at%2018.25.53.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Figure 10. Effect of vaccination status on Covid-19 hospital admission <br />during the week April 10th to April 17th 2022</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;">We can go on to look at what happened during the two weeks sunsequent to April 17th 2022.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;">Figure 11 shows graphically the average weekly increase of hospital admissions according to vaccination status, during the two weeks of April 17th to May 1st.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1kc4gSgmJwvMWqYEjvlvut4Az6UlYFvk6LuEB-hsRIzw9JERwMFfkprb3RII-ClgciKpdB33l8K8ZiVJ8C-Fe_OCkdpofFHnow4dthd_pTtuiS60O9hQAwRHoTWYPHEaeFn7ozXvuzuRgjdpUeGtFHlb21mEQhKLcuB-f--Tj8M1DmMI7JYj35lzsiA/s1136/Screenshot%202022-05-23%20at%2018.06.37.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="1136" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1kc4gSgmJwvMWqYEjvlvut4Az6UlYFvk6LuEB-hsRIzw9JERwMFfkprb3RII-ClgciKpdB33l8K8ZiVJ8C-Fe_OCkdpofFHnow4dthd_pTtuiS60O9hQAwRHoTWYPHEaeFn7ozXvuzuRgjdpUeGtFHlb21mEQhKLcuB-f--Tj8M1DmMI7JYj35lzsiA/w640-h434/Screenshot%202022-05-23%20at%2018.06.37.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Figure 11. Effect of vaccination status on Covid-19 hospital admission <br />weekly average of April 17th to May 21st 2022</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;">It is quite clear that as with Covid-19 deaths, vaccination has a very significant effect of increasing risk of hospital admissions. The third vaccination seems to be by far the most damaging, but data from a fourth vaccination are not yet available.</span><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;"><b>Why might vaccination be so damaging?</b></span></p><div><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;">It appears that vaccinations against Covid-19 are reducing immunity and making us more susceptible to serious infection, and perhaps death. It could be due to toxicity, but as I suggested in previous Blog posts that the problem might be that the intense immune responses stimulated by vaccinations are inevitably consuming our Vitamin D reserves. It is then by inducing Vitamin D deficiency that our immunity reduces and our resistance to damaging Covid-19 diminishes. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;">The more vaccines given, the greater the depletion of Vitamin D, and so the third vaccinations have the most profound damagung effects.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;">I know of no research into this suggestion and being retired I am no longer able to undertake such research myself. However vaccination-induced Vitamin D deficiency would be very easily treated so as to reverse damaging effects of vaccinations. <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-urgent-vaccines-need.html">Vaccines need Vitamin D.</a></span></div><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;">We now need Vitamin D more than ever.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>We have seen the Canadian experience. What about the rest of the world?</b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;">See next Blog post.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Reply to comment 1.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Anecdotes are very important initiating steps to knowledge. What you write makes perfect sense if my proposal is correct, that multiple vaccinations are increasingly damaging to immunity as they consume Vitamin D and make us seriously deficient. Take vitamin D with vaccinations. I had two vaccinations to enable me to travel abroad, and I took Vitamin D 100,000 units extra two weeks before each vaccination. No problems. Now back on 20,000 units every Sunday. This could be advised officially but it is not happening. Also simple research opportunity.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">David</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-70354699571085612962022-04-07T06:53:00.006-07:002022-04-10T12:10:56.870-07:00Covid-19 & Vitamin D – why is there no herd immunity?<p></p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><p><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoG81GqIG6wNLLpfTFe-vx3G2AEPHjYrL6i1IErMQg31m0NQ--ZmzDPBI5xL-sLxMrJAcWDeuYIQCpJm9I8nwuHC_X0P5ufwqrAwKJDGxhV3ccWSp0n9o0nC2i5gJ-pUiEnjPBkRh3VrLbK2edONjlg-KQbSQkYPM5qxPQdRISgCsNLKyei8uABYO9pA/s1358/IMG_3518.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="1358" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoG81GqIG6wNLLpfTFe-vx3G2AEPHjYrL6i1IErMQg31m0NQ--ZmzDPBI5xL-sLxMrJAcWDeuYIQCpJm9I8nwuHC_X0P5ufwqrAwKJDGxhV3ccWSp0n9o0nC2i5gJ-pUiEnjPBkRh3VrLbK2edONjlg-KQbSQkYPM5qxPQdRISgCsNLKyei8uABYO9pA/w640-h272/IMG_3518.jpeg" width="640" /></a></span></div><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Covid-19 pandemic has been in progress for a little more than two years, but daily Covid-19 records are still being broken, as in this report from England, similar from Scotland. Why has it not settled? For how much longer will case numbers increase and records be broken?</span><p></p>When the pandemic of Covid-19 emerged in early 2020, the plan of governments collectively (following directives from the WHO) was that the answer must be "vaccinations" (strictly m-RNA injections), which were to be manufatcured as a matter of urgency for the world, and with a great deal of financial support from governments. The introduction of vaccines was anticipated to be at the end of 2020 (at least in the wealthy nations that could afford the vaccines) with the pandemic coming to an end during 2021. </span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Herd immunity</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It was confidently expected that vaccinations would lead to herd immunity more rapidly than would be the case with nature. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Herd immunity means that the great majority of the population has immunity, either as a result of infection and recovery, or by vaccination. Historically natural infection followed by survival and immunity has been by far more important, and it has stood the test of time. </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">However the WHO has recently given vaccination a priority in the definition of herd immunity.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In the winter of 1968–69 there was a pandemic of what we called "Hong Kong Flu". It affected a large proportion of the population and it caused an estimated 50,000 deaths in the UK. At the time I was the resident medical officer (RMO) at the Manchester Royal Infirmary, and I can remember how this and other hospitals were overwhelmed by emergency admissions and many deaths. Flu vaccinations were given, but they were of very doubtful effectiveness. Tests for viral antigens and antibodies were not possible at that time.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There was a minor peak in late 1969 but</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> the pandemic settled without any of the multiple peaks that we have seen recently. Herd immunity appears to have been reached after about a year.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> The important thing about herd immunity is that it is permanent, locked into the immunity "memory" cells. It also becomes hereditable and is passed on to future generations. Hong Kong Flu has not returned.</span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">At present there is no indication of herd immunity being reached with case numbers still increasing.</span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Covid-19: no treatment given</b><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">While waiting for the vaccines to become available, people diagnosed with Covid-19 were given no treatment and clinical doctors were not allowed to give treatments which could have helped, including VItamin D (especially in its activated form <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/12/covid-19-vitamin-d-calcifediol-has-96.html">Calcifediol</a>), Hydroxychloroquine, Ivermectin, Beclomethasone aerosol, Vitamin C, and Zinc. People diagnosed with Covid-19 were told to go home, and then to go to hospital if they had difficulty in breathing. It was a disgrace.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It was promised that vaccinations would end the pandemic, but this did not happen. Something went wrong. In all countries we find similar patterns of the pandemic not settling, and on the contrary case numbers are increasing</span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;">in multiple peaks</span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;">, by a factor of up to one thousand.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>There are more cases in 2022 </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Covid-19 cases per day were higher in the first quarter of 2022 than in the same month in 2021 (Figure 1, below). During March 2021 case numbers were decreasing, but this is not happening in 2022.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We have seen during the previous two years that case numbers fell during the Vitamin D production season of May to August. This should happen again in 2022 but we cannot make any clear predictions.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Many governments have abandoned policies such as mask-wearing, social distancing, and lockdown. Schools and work are now back to normal. For a change in policy at a time of the highest case-rates compared to previous years indicates that governments have abandoned such policies because they have been of no obvious benefit – but of course they have been very damaging to education and the economy, and to many individuals. There will of course be no apology for failure and further vaccinations are being encouraged.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The pattern of Covid-19 is obvious not just in the UK but in many other countries. There have been several peaks that were not predicted and which are not readily explained, but we can recognise that each peak is higher than the one before.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>UK</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We can look for example at the past three years in the UK, remembering that it was only in March 2020 that the pandemic emerged. At that time there was major concern, and we were subjected to almost total lockdown. But we can compare cases per day in 2020 (blue) with what happened subsequently in 2021 (green) and 2022 (grey). In retrospect the experience of 2020 appears to be quite trivial.</span></p><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcywwacAr3-EktkB_7YzrZCT6JViP_FkZxRydT3dA6Emiktwy4bvTWCxG0IOJ0xlmU8LOBv5Rz5OoITMaP7bg4NC1qgDiPujBCBbbb8xIKhPwSxp9q3nl4whQPFQVD5zICbXhZ0qlfJtzLxQMIHBrCywDCIGnIeZtFyTvPAPnaIcJ4ukxtFLiB44j1ZQ/s1472/UK%20cases%204.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="1472" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcywwacAr3-EktkB_7YzrZCT6JViP_FkZxRydT3dA6Emiktwy4bvTWCxG0IOJ0xlmU8LOBv5Rz5OoITMaP7bg4NC1qgDiPujBCBbbb8xIKhPwSxp9q3nl4whQPFQVD5zICbXhZ0qlfJtzLxQMIHBrCywDCIGnIeZtFyTvPAPnaIcJ4ukxtFLiB44j1ZQ/w640-h290/UK%20cases%204.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 1. UK Covid-19 cases per day in 2020, 2021, 2022 </span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is strange and certainly unexpected that the number of Covid-19 cases per day is so much higher in 2022 than in 2021. It was anticipated that the vaccination programmes during 2021 would have brought the pandemic to an end. But it has not happened, and the pandemic has become worse.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The pattern of Covid-19 is obvious not just in the UK but in many other countries. There has been a series of peaks that were not predicted and which are not readily explained. But we can recognise that succeeding peaks have been progressively higher. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">My previous reports have displayed bar-charts (such as Figure 1) that I have constructed from data displayed daily on <i>"worldometer"</i>. However several countries, including the UK, have stopped reporting numbers regularly, and some cases altogether. Even with the UK our Covid-19 case numbers and death numbers are no longer displayed each day, and to find the numbers involves searches from a variety of sites.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">However <i>"ourworldindata"</i> continues to supply daily Covid-19 data from around the world, but usually after a few days delay. I will show graphs from this </span><span style="font-family: arial;">source.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Israel</b></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">To understand (or try to understand) what is happening in the Covid-19 pandemic, let us look at Israel as another example. This is about the </span><span style="font-family: arial;">earliest and most completely vaccinated nation.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">First we can see in Figure 2 the first four peaks that occured during 2020 and 2021, and these caused great concern. The head of Pfizer, as a child a survivor of the Holocaust, had promised Israel to be the recipient of the first Pfizer vaccines (and </span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">unknowingly the subjects of post-marketing surveillance). The failure of vaccinations to stop the pandemic was not encouraging, but successive vaccination programmes continued.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The first four waves are obvious, two in 2020 and two in 2021.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5nNbTeGomPL_QtUx56ULZ1Pe16EDJUSj3BLLAvwcnsjImHPRmnBGs9A03F7tINHfC0bVuyUHZYU0KTQvMvWyANDFrOGqcglSXeZo7FsTaE-X5vyuASzJg-IXefJSa75UdaAuHoqok8X1XicKENwSvgTiIqN2diGdvo7fq_XgpXNFQBUdBLNwvdysdfw/s1124/Israel%201%20.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="670" data-original-width="1124" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5nNbTeGomPL_QtUx56ULZ1Pe16EDJUSj3BLLAvwcnsjImHPRmnBGs9A03F7tINHfC0bVuyUHZYU0KTQvMvWyANDFrOGqcglSXeZo7FsTaE-X5vyuASzJg-IXefJSa75UdaAuHoqok8X1XicKENwSvgTiIqN2diGdvo7fq_XgpXNFQBUdBLNwvdysdfw/w640-h382/Israel%201%20.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 2. Israel Covid-19 cases 2020 and 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">But the pandemic waves in 2020 (maximum 6,000 cases per day) and in 2021 (maximum 10,000 cases per day) </span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">became less significant when we moved into 2022. The case number hit a maximum of 100,000 per day, ten times the experience of 2021. What has been going wrong? What will happen next?</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbDRJaQD8NkQp3L5CRix9K6aPY0agGGXU1OlkX06fabcyIwAlhpQFDvBu5bgtjIdnwA9CjKo1G73VVT01CyVVMqXpBf4Y78_ICQFWs6HM1lRceTNmFURQzXaob1fBj-cypSAdXVfuIdK8zw2nSYwNBuZnexlIsUUqIzfWUMgUqlu7P8cIc316Qq5Tn_g/s1302/Israel%203.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="692" data-original-width="1302" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbDRJaQD8NkQp3L5CRix9K6aPY0agGGXU1OlkX06fabcyIwAlhpQFDvBu5bgtjIdnwA9CjKo1G73VVT01CyVVMqXpBf4Y78_ICQFWs6HM1lRceTNmFURQzXaob1fBj-cypSAdXVfuIdK8zw2nSYwNBuZnexlIsUUqIzfWUMgUqlu7P8cIc316Qq5Tn_g/w640-h340/Israel%203.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Figure 3. Israel Covid-19 cases 2020, 2021 and 2022</span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Japan</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We can see the same in Japan, five waves in 2020 and 2021, with a maximum 25,000 cases per day.</span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6vbz1z2x_9OeWL2HH2AB2VqzaXjoT4LTQ4diNk3WbOzMcAdZW8G3qoke2kmdsGmO3K-VTRmng3qIctU0Pe5xrCkwy5XJ0nd5TpPeOxprogJ47Eq9XtQH-EfVQsVjOXIkYMhVYl_uOYfxhwjZ-aEdB5JCpWA9y6LaPX6hgZ3qJS2J9H5AMrmPVPjcAVA/s1296/Japan%201%202022-03-19%20at%2022.03.30.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="1296" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6vbz1z2x_9OeWL2HH2AB2VqzaXjoT4LTQ4diNk3WbOzMcAdZW8G3qoke2kmdsGmO3K-VTRmng3qIctU0Pe5xrCkwy5XJ0nd5TpPeOxprogJ47Eq9XtQH-EfVQsVjOXIkYMhVYl_uOYfxhwjZ-aEdB5JCpWA9y6LaPX6hgZ3qJS2J9H5AMrmPVPjcAVA/w640-h352/Japan%201%202022-03-19%20at%2022.03.30.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 4. Japan Covid-19 cases 2020 and 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br />And then an enoromous sixth wave in 2022, maximum 94,000 cases per day. What will happen in the near future is impossible to predict.<br /></span><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijKyU_dqZxRB4kUJd4T0Xx6IqROGWgqDb5hMcM8LNCVxTMACrZpHVNmpgpUXd0RZDRUxaZtUhP_Zrbt1Ycykh0IjtvTbRa7cqJz-OVe7NPuPcGXlIvORums6-jcnJgjvdp9DeNhbKYm8ahRJZe7yImeh_h0dArtKpRQZxL9JBRIstfIZpWmaLMavVo4g/s1296/Japan%202%202022-03-19%20at%2022.03.48.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="1296" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijKyU_dqZxRB4kUJd4T0Xx6IqROGWgqDb5hMcM8LNCVxTMACrZpHVNmpgpUXd0RZDRUxaZtUhP_Zrbt1Ycykh0IjtvTbRa7cqJz-OVe7NPuPcGXlIvORums6-jcnJgjvdp9DeNhbKYm8ahRJZe7yImeh_h0dArtKpRQZxL9JBRIstfIZpWmaLMavVo4g/w640-h352/Japan%202%202022-03-19%20at%2022.03.48.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 5. Japan Covid-19 cases 2020, 2021 and 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Germany</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The same pattern occured in Germany, five waves during 2020 and 2021, with a maximum of 60,000 cases per day.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaZMxkl_Jpo1Rq3ngLmfz0aiNsBqnz-NW9VHBBGTMSlhVb_y9Ax99dT_JKH6n4UtMGDA-_Sg-mJWpnXaD2ep5788Tl9OUc2SK-qw9ZL3x7Ue27CgWrQH32hl1bmn_7UdFdGOHWkD5itG-7Xu602H9fb7hMpl54eRMLshwFA8qiTqRxODNRBJYnz75DRQ/s1296/Germany%201%202022-03-19%20at%2022.01.41.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="1296" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaZMxkl_Jpo1Rq3ngLmfz0aiNsBqnz-NW9VHBBGTMSlhVb_y9Ax99dT_JKH6n4UtMGDA-_Sg-mJWpnXaD2ep5788Tl9OUc2SK-qw9ZL3x7Ue27CgWrQH32hl1bmn_7UdFdGOHWkD5itG-7Xu602H9fb7hMpl54eRMLshwFA8qiTqRxODNRBJYnz75DRQ/w640-h352/Germany%201%202022-03-19%20at%2022.01.41.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 6. Germany Covid-19 cases 2020 and 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">But then in 2022 a sixth wave with more than 200,000 cases per day. This peak is stubbornly persistent and in early April it is still increasing.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYQJH-0sXIIK6_XbRd3pr2mvFdYcHav7AouE6-tWtHm48PApYh-jChohuCEw4oQSEW5BPALpjpRMik5vPlx02upgIHRbbcGJr0rgiGcccZiKFZzH-ePpsCV86U5BHrQOdNB8eyNn2qmuHKNVr-gKAwILsf6pA-Rb01zGYQVsj5GWHyZMW9DKXzVjAWoA/s1278/Germany%203.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="702" data-original-width="1278" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYQJH-0sXIIK6_XbRd3pr2mvFdYcHav7AouE6-tWtHm48PApYh-jChohuCEw4oQSEW5BPALpjpRMik5vPlx02upgIHRbbcGJr0rgiGcccZiKFZzH-ePpsCV86U5BHrQOdNB8eyNn2qmuHKNVr-gKAwILsf6pA-Rb01zGYQVsj5GWHyZMW9DKXzVjAWoA/w640-h352/Germany%203.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Figure 7. Germany Covid-19 cases 2020, 2021 and 2022</span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>New Zealand </b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">New Zealand appeared to be protecting itself very well during 2020 and 2021, and was applauded as showing great success from is lockdown enforcement. Case numbers were low with the late 2021 peak reaching only about 200 cases per day, and that was after the vaccination programme was well-established. Cases per day were strangely higher following the vaccination initiative.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixhXJlXvWA44lPv9DZ2ZSGJSLNTVnWHzNr1Id244XDSuTanhiP-Ym8RVuPCpwdAGJPA-XFBRB2pwHti12e6cUbeJtbKukue_CIiHZ39JzXw_SjtSpcjL6B7LMuEVmWIsE5AVYHIqZmnoV3q4t_TNiQ5JJPOFpNOC51VYBVMyzSpgiwMdFqwcwosIQuCA/s1296/NZ%201%202022-03-19%20at%2022.00.20.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="1296" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixhXJlXvWA44lPv9DZ2ZSGJSLNTVnWHzNr1Id244XDSuTanhiP-Ym8RVuPCpwdAGJPA-XFBRB2pwHti12e6cUbeJtbKukue_CIiHZ39JzXw_SjtSpcjL6B7LMuEVmWIsE5AVYHIqZmnoV3q4t_TNiQ5JJPOFpNOC51VYBVMyzSpgiwMdFqwcwosIQuCA/w640-h352/NZ%201%202022-03-19%20at%2022.00.20.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 8. New Zealand Covid-19 cases 2020, 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">But these peaks and numbers are of little significance when we see the current peak in March 2022. New Zealand is now experiencing 20,000 new cases each day. Something has gone seriously wrong, and a one hundred-fold increase in cases per day was completely unexpected. Despite this the end of lockdown enforcement is under way. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDBkhjY0OWOjoGOD2trvP8taapjsK6ol3tE8ygjWahcORljZIwZ9M4DkfzX_-dfAmrwsiv72PsO638nrQXGumYkAhPBcxq4dW0c9g9RQdou3W6ntGaICA_9E3LfhhzuSDXqqcivgb864CDi1vWYsQlP1O8nNuZIa7mCz7J5pb925JynB0LlwJA7CmMww/s1296/NZ%202%202022-03-19%20at%2022.00.41.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="1296" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDBkhjY0OWOjoGOD2trvP8taapjsK6ol3tE8ygjWahcORljZIwZ9M4DkfzX_-dfAmrwsiv72PsO638nrQXGumYkAhPBcxq4dW0c9g9RQdou3W6ntGaICA_9E3LfhhzuSDXqqcivgb864CDi1vWYsQlP1O8nNuZIa7mCz7J5pb925JynB0LlwJA7CmMww/w640-h352/NZ%202%202022-03-19%20at%2022.00.41.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 9. New Zealand Covid-19 cases 2020, 2021 and 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Hong Kong</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Hong Kong shows a similar peak in March 2022, with more than 60,000 cases per day. The previous numbers of daily deaths can now be regared as insignificant. The present increase is about one thousand times the previous numbers </span></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAaTLsU65P3evAcMX3aIm0ZWjycK8oKYUpp3mQUKy6nRoWHSC7xUJSu4BwofwejJwuck8QRvXcrUCIt6Hv-riuv38WekBoGs7X9dOdjSMGMx2WCK5RTrQ3wAKg_gBb0vhY2dciHLUHNmD3zmxjqMGt4OCNlwm9lFm_lYGsoCm1lSJC3cLZOIvDpX8yzA/s1296/HK%202%202022-03-19%20at%2022.05.03.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="1296" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAaTLsU65P3evAcMX3aIm0ZWjycK8oKYUpp3mQUKy6nRoWHSC7xUJSu4BwofwejJwuck8QRvXcrUCIt6Hv-riuv38WekBoGs7X9dOdjSMGMx2WCK5RTrQ3wAKg_gBb0vhY2dciHLUHNmD3zmxjqMGt4OCNlwm9lFm_lYGsoCm1lSJC3cLZOIvDpX8yzA/w640-h352/HK%202%202022-03-19%20at%2022.05.03.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 10. Hong Kong Covid-19 cases 2020, 2021 and 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>South Korea</b></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">During 2020 South Korea was applauded for its military style tight lockdown and there were very few Covid-19 cases, fewer than 1,000 per day. In late 2021 the number increased to 7,000 per day. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHzS1zWqxgk7fTFJPTdX82-5_FTx3xUcMFyRsHR2P7mOygvbdaj-X3YfFwGrMIB2qWx_yEddrzaqEf8QJ3Jl4Wz4qsKAiC_U0eKlf6Y8yi8EAnhCkkV9UahlMgm8JR_CIHgxGbKMOv_0WQ9_fUlCxJ_xsOGeJkFivnmXaoOqqMA6TJYV0c9y-JHfLfIw/s1278/South%20Korea%201.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="702" data-original-width="1278" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHzS1zWqxgk7fTFJPTdX82-5_FTx3xUcMFyRsHR2P7mOygvbdaj-X3YfFwGrMIB2qWx_yEddrzaqEf8QJ3Jl4Wz4qsKAiC_U0eKlf6Y8yi8EAnhCkkV9UahlMgm8JR_CIHgxGbKMOv_0WQ9_fUlCxJ_xsOGeJkFivnmXaoOqqMA6TJYV0c9y-JHfLfIw/w640-h352/South%20Korea%201.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Figure 11. South Korea Covid-19 cases 2020, 2021 and 2022</span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">But in the early Spring of 2022 the numbers increased dramatically, to an astonishing maximum of 400,000 cases per day. Why did this happen following an extensive vaccination programme?</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWUJMdOB-MbzCz2KgOgX-Ti_6N2nmtpV_puD1-ygf8eJ_XOyML9QXvkz9LS82c_f71GbFE3hH6k0NzQvA1w91BXVAfi1COt3nnKayBmb8g4cMjHNS9mnuX9D4aBnRO2lHdgywE-OjgTBi51QDMLVX-yrxBcruCab8AnS2vnXZzHGy4-sDoqiItI1FNNw/s1278/South%20Korea%202.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="702" data-original-width="1278" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWUJMdOB-MbzCz2KgOgX-Ti_6N2nmtpV_puD1-ygf8eJ_XOyML9QXvkz9LS82c_f71GbFE3hH6k0NzQvA1w91BXVAfi1COt3nnKayBmb8g4cMjHNS9mnuX9D4aBnRO2lHdgywE-OjgTBi51QDMLVX-yrxBcruCab8AnS2vnXZzHGy4-sDoqiItI1FNNw/w640-h352/South%20Korea%202.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Figure 12. South Korea Covid-19 cases 2020, 2021 and 2022</span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I could go on to show many other countries, with a graph displaying 2020 and 2021, and then one to include 2022. But the point is obvious that case numbers in 2022 in many countries have overwhelmed by a factor of ten or more the case numbers in 2020 and 2021. We were told that with vaccinations the pandemic would rapidly come to an end, but the reality is that it has become much worse.</span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Covid-19 death rates are lower in 2022.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">As shown in the example of the UK (Figure 13) Covid-19 deaths per day are much lower during the first quarter of 2022 than the same quarter in 2021. However a</span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">t present in early April 2022 Covid-19 deaths per day are more than in 2021, with a tendency to increase.</span></div><div><br /></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUUjvKX3UQm36AyqR9k1nNLcDy7YtnbRyEXoPg8iJVw7cPabmiZYw6dyqDoDAT5cf_-eAHbFd57F6a51s-pMapIsblZq1LkCn0ULndnsoBKHFvShA2C7muiYY2rT6O2Uml7reGtOlSz1rGhdIHgCQePdLO4oCgR9eYB5_mXNE_jok31W3Upn7GsDJwrQ/s1472/UK%20deaths%202.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="1472" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUUjvKX3UQm36AyqR9k1nNLcDy7YtnbRyEXoPg8iJVw7cPabmiZYw6dyqDoDAT5cf_-eAHbFd57F6a51s-pMapIsblZq1LkCn0ULndnsoBKHFvShA2C7muiYY2rT6O2Uml7reGtOlSz1rGhdIHgCQePdLO4oCgR9eYB5_mXNE_jok31W3Upn7GsDJwrQ/w640-h290/UK%20deaths%202.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 13. UK </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Covid-19 deaths per day 2020, 2021 and 2022</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><div style="font-family: -webkit-standard;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is stated that vaccinations have prevented thousands of deaths, but we cannot be certain of this as there has been no appropriate randomised controlled trial. The lower numbers of Covid-19 deaths per day during the pandemic can be seen in the example of the UK. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>You live every day, but you die only once.</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There is an obvious explanation for fewer deaths in 2022 than previously in the pandemic.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">You will remember that at the beginning of the pandemic, deaths were almost exclusively in the very highly vulnerable. Covid-19 deaths per day reduced during the Summer of 2020 and the Spring of 2021, but there were high numbers in the winter months of no vitamin D production.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The very highly vulnerable died early in the pandemic, and they could only die once. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is inevitable that it will be some time before a new cohort of very highly vulnerable will develop from the remaining just vulnerable members of the population. It is always the case that a peak of deaths in the first year of a pandemic is followed by lower than average death rate in the next one or two years.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The vaccinations</b> </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Although vaccinations might have reduced the severity of Covid-19, it would appear that the vaccinations have failed to deliver the anticipated success.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Something has gone wrong with the vaccinations. I have suggested in a previous Blog post that vaccinations, in stimulating the immune response would inevitably have consumed Vitamin D, as <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-urgent-vaccines-need.html">a molecule of Vitamin D as 1,25(OH)D can only be used once</a>. Immunity would inevitably suffer.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Are vaccines failing because Vitamin D supplements have not been given with the vaccinations? – especially as we are only just approaching the Vitamin D production season.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The effect of vaccines on immune mechanisms needs further evaluation in a future Blog post.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Note:</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Replies and comments that I try to publish are longer accepted, and I cannot understand this. I will need to post my replies in this main text.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This is my reply to Comment 1:</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i><div>From the beginning of the pandemic, reports of Covid-19 "deaths" have been deaths of people who have tested positive for Covid-19 during the previous 28 days. This definition has not changed, but overall it could have overstated Covid-19 deaths.</div><div>Observation of increased Covid-19 cases leads to an suggestion of greater transmissablity of successive variants, but it could equally be the result of a progressive reduction in the immune response of the population.</div><div>It now appears that the triple vaccinated have a higher incidence of cases and deaths then double vaccinated and unvaccinated. It also appears that this data will no longer be published in Scotland.</div></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Reply to comment 3: (my reply could not be published)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>"The large print giveth and the small print taketh away". That is, our hope for Vitamin D enlightenment. </i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>The government asks for "advice" concerning vitamin D, but in the text is that this advice is in repect of muscle-skeletal health only. No mention of immunity. But I will try to win the battle for vitamin D.</i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><br /></div><div><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p></div></div><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-1742685138700361752022-03-10T22:34:00.005-08:002022-03-19T11:12:29.184-07:00Covid-19 and Vitamin D – study from Liverpool<p> </p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Covid-19 and Vitamin D – a study from Liverpool</b></span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiTK3quQQ-kJn-bi-8D8KP948KnXq1RCkPK6TZyqrZf0iPDu_2I4vNd72GxUlw5jGe4D9H_XPCpvPWhBbUgBBlcBAW7kKCgc43_giIZm3H5B-N0x08b5CLe-a7oZJ7oq1Rk1lvAHOISaUuLgnUs_4vTefBunryqgjLhpcScgR8Ba3s_XEdRVdf1-3p7Xw=s2002" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="903" data-original-width="2002" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiTK3quQQ-kJn-bi-8D8KP948KnXq1RCkPK6TZyqrZf0iPDu_2I4vNd72GxUlw5jGe4D9H_XPCpvPWhBbUgBBlcBAW7kKCgc43_giIZm3H5B-N0x08b5CLe-a7oZJ7oq1Rk1lvAHOISaUuLgnUs_4vTefBunryqgjLhpcScgR8Ba3s_XEdRVdf1-3p7Xw=w400-h180" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Liverpool water-front</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">We have ju</span><span><span style="font-family: arial;">st seen the </span><a href="https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ajcn/nqac027/6518440" style="font-family: arial;">publication of another paper</a><span style="font-family: arial;"> concernin</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">g the outcome of Covid-19 in relation to the blood level of Vitamin D. This study was undertaken in Liverpool, UK.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The results are not entirely straightforward as the study also investigated several parameters of Vitamin D. I will try to extract what I regard as the most important points and integrate them with other studies.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The study was of 992 patients with Covid-19 admitted to hospital in Liverpool between March 18th and November 2nd 2020, early in the pandemic. Of these, 472 were studied in detail because f</span><span style="font-family: arial;">ollowing initial blood testing, there was sufficient surplus blood serum to allow retrospective blood testing for Vitamin D.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Vitamin D levels</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">From the<a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/12/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-strong-evidence.html"> recent study from Israel</a>, I find it compelling that Vitamin D deficiency should be defined as less than 30ng/ml, 75 nmol/L. Less than this blood level indicates a high risk of severe or critical Covid-19, whereas above this level can be regarded as a safe range. In the study from Israel about 50% were deficient by this definition, and in a study from <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-santander-heidelberg.html">Heidelberg</a></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">, Germany, in 2020</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">the proportion deficient of Vitamin D in was much higher at about 80%, in Figure 1.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEikHOtAFpxWaaU0acPeBdVHvsRZznVRl7aUnYi8Vezv9tp6lGfyRh7RjG4ZdYVjW6aP91B6FhC9IWjxTmoFdtoP6_s4RhiYbUzZn-g5IL2e5QUko5X_b0Rh_12J2CFHp7t5xbJ0unAUDPAatGrw8zRY95lfLrnBRyEBImnjEZNtjcGMkLmYaqcOyuzrTQ=s948" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="904" data-original-width="948" height="381" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEikHOtAFpxWaaU0acPeBdVHvsRZznVRl7aUnYi8Vezv9tp6lGfyRh7RjG4ZdYVjW6aP91B6FhC9IWjxTmoFdtoP6_s4RhiYbUzZn-g5IL2e5QUko5X_b0Rh_12J2CFHp7t5xbJ0unAUDPAatGrw8zRY95lfLrnBRyEBImnjEZNtjcGMkLmYaqcOyuzrTQ=w400-h381" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 1. Vitamin D in patients with Covid-19, 2020</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In my personal research in Blackburn, UK, 20 years ago the proportion with Vitamin D deficiency as defined above using the Israel data, was 682 in the ethnic white sample of 818 (83%), and a very disturbing 1514 in the ethnic South Asian group of 1574 (96%). </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I have <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/04/covid-19-vitamin-d-and-ethnicity.html">shown this data previously</a>, but as it was two years ago I will display the bar-charts below. Each vertical bar represents the blood vitamin D level of one person. As the distribution is not "normal" or symmetrical, the median is shown. This is the halfway point, 50% of the subjects below or above this level, the vertical orange line. The horizontal yellow line indicates the blood level of the median. The horizontal red line indicates blood vitamin D level of 30ng/ml, 75nmol/L and we can immediately see how few of the subjects were above this safe line.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiT_MwFIe6finJgacjnepPNIEG9BTo8JfTIKd6eLA3ZYr4GSJD3HNHUbDSCAS4_zw9RpbvBIFAp0Y9ZRV0czmYRUbVI7gcGPVVxYN0otxxlzPhlnw2Js2ilkIWjvUlhPScoBSX7nMU_dViQeJDsQjysU_ES7VXuS-3T6gXt8WqcTJprt2NHPP0pwja6dA=s1282" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="782" data-original-width="1282" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiT_MwFIe6finJgacjnepPNIEG9BTo8JfTIKd6eLA3ZYr4GSJD3HNHUbDSCAS4_zw9RpbvBIFAp0Y9ZRV0czmYRUbVI7gcGPVVxYN0otxxlzPhlnw2Js2ilkIWjvUlhPScoBSX7nMU_dViQeJDsQjysU_ES7VXuS-3T6gXt8WqcTJprt2NHPP0pwja6dA=w640-h390" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 2. Distribution of blood level of Vitamin D in 818 ethnic white people</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5HhK8UK-CjjZXVV0Yb0qgtt7wh1RDza6_oq_BmM37Haq94g1QONduJzBN7RwM2o5qajt3EbJk-36A7vXglAavAL-ebncixheAOc83dCsCmARWgySKJdx42Md06oCPr1h61HULEtXW9HDvxnty5BbuO7tmv0QYYqtUWD0uWi6e7oO38Nvk03x9ESIxqg=s1272" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="742" data-original-width="1272" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5HhK8UK-CjjZXVV0Yb0qgtt7wh1RDza6_oq_BmM37Haq94g1QONduJzBN7RwM2o5qajt3EbJk-36A7vXglAavAL-ebncixheAOc83dCsCmARWgySKJdx42Md06oCPr1h61HULEtXW9HDvxnty5BbuO7tmv0QYYqtUWD0uWi6e7oO38Nvk03x9ESIxqg=w640-h374" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 3. Distribution of blood level of Vitamin D in 1574 ethnic South Asian people</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></div><span style="font-size: large; text-align: left;"></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In the ethnic white group the median blood level of Vitamin D is 18ng/ml, 45nmol/L.</span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In the ethnic South Asian group he median blood level of Vitamin D is 9ng/ml, 22.5nmol/L.<br /></span><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Liverpool experience</b></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Once again we have the problem of two units of measurement of Vitamin D in current use. The paper from Liverpool uses the unit "nmol/L". I will express both even though this might appear cumbersome. 1ng/ml = 2.5nmol/L</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;">The Liverpool study regarded </span><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue";">20ng/ml, 50nmol/L as being the lower limit of the ideal range, and therefore below this to be VItamin D deficiency. However the study from Israel indicated that </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">30ng/ml, 75 nmol/L would better be regarded as the lower limit of the safe range, based on biological advantage.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Of the 472 Covid-19 patients studied in Liverpool, we can see in Figure 4 the numbers with various blood vitamin D levels.</span></span></p><p><span><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg2RMy-mmuS_x4-V2rs9QA0Kn4V3OfRVrbu5jiH4LGSXZ16KcO9_Etp4LWvpHRcyp4-FyTo0cZiD379zTzxR6JS04SrIiF-k7cSW7SAn2waq3V8pPSPREfL-TYFcWy4FAFxpUTm8kPTsCDid9bTGDF-iVKqnx3E2pdZdC95SjNvV31QPbmgi-RFlte-lQ=s1170" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="706" data-original-width="1170" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg2RMy-mmuS_x4-V2rs9QA0Kn4V3OfRVrbu5jiH4LGSXZ16KcO9_Etp4LWvpHRcyp4-FyTo0cZiD379zTzxR6JS04SrIiF-k7cSW7SAn2waq3V8pPSPREfL-TYFcWy4FAFxpUTm8kPTsCDid9bTGDF-iVKqnx3E2pdZdC95SjNvV31QPbmgi-RFlte-lQ=w400-h241" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 4. Distribution of Vitamin D in 472 Covid-19 patients</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></span></div><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">83% were deficient of Vitamin D with blood levels less than 30ng/ml, 75nmol/L. </span></span></span><div><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">96% had sub-optimal blood levels of less than 40ng/ml, 100ng/L. </span></span></span></div><div><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">These results indicate a serious but reversible public health problem.</span></span></span><div><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">We can see that in these 472 Covid-19 patients, there is an asymmetrical distribution, and so once again an arithmetic mean is not of particular value. The distribution is skewed to the lower range of blood levels of Vitamin D and the median, the middle of the range, was expressed in the study report. </span></span></span></div><div><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">The proportion with suboptimal levels (as defined by high illness incidence) is the most useful way of expressing Vitamin D status of a population.</span></span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The pattern is similar to but not quite as dramatic as the Heidelberg study ahown in Figure 1. In this, there are more sub-divisions of Vitamin D level than in Figure 4.<br /> </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Deaths</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Of the 472 Covid-19 patients, 112 died within 28 days, </span><span style="font-family: arial;">23.7% overall, 28% in men, 23.5% in women. This proportion of deaths was the general experience during 2020, when the highly vulnerable members of the population died.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>Of those who died:</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Average (median) blood level of vitamin D was 15.8ng/ml, 39.5nmol/L.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>Of those who survived:</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Average (median) blood level of vitamin D was 17.3ng/ml, 43nmol/L.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Those who survived had on average a slightly higher blood vitamin D level than those who died, in keeping with other studies, but the differe</span><span style="font-family: arial;">nce was not dramatic. The difference did not achieve "statistical significance", meaning that it could have been a chance finding. Whether or not there is <i>clinical </i>significance is a matter of <a href=" http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/09/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-time-for-action.html">judgement</a>, a balance of potential benefits and risks of using or not using Vitamin D in clinical practice.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Statistical </span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">significance is influenced to a major extent in sample size. In investigating the effect of Vitamin D in Covid-19, it is operationally difficult to use a large sample size, unlike a pharmaceutical trial in a sample of normal people in the community.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">More detail is shown in Figure 5. Look at it carefully to see which green columns (died) were higher than the blue (survived).</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgT3T7X06M4Hf5Q0Rw7ezfY30TwdNrYUpCP6o51-yZEUffpxVTaGH7eiC9pyUerVMH1vnLg2S_8bI0kXBItll63nl2E7wb22appKrWw4D3-mAONjT7O71bBj6_JUEuENuk5nrsuYGZakN20PKQYMXSXHi59NExdFsAWywuLYTMaCbgCQwboXTQCxk67tA=s852" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="534" data-original-width="852" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgT3T7X06M4Hf5Q0Rw7ezfY30TwdNrYUpCP6o51-yZEUffpxVTaGH7eiC9pyUerVMH1vnLg2S_8bI0kXBItll63nl2E7wb22appKrWw4D3-mAONjT7O71bBj6_JUEuENuk5nrsuYGZakN20PKQYMXSXHi59NExdFsAWywuLYTMaCbgCQwboXTQCxk67tA=w400-h251" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 5. Covid-19 survival or death and Vitamin D</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">We can see that the chance of death is greatest in those with the lowest </span><span style="font-family: arial;">blood levels of VItamin D, but</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> also in those with the highest. </span></span></div><div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Severe disease</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The infuence of Vitamin D on severe Covid-19 was </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">expressed as Odds Ratio, the relative chance of developing severe Covid-19 based on blood level of Vitamin D. The reference was a blood level of 20–30ng/ml, 50–74 nmol/L, as considered to be middle of the range found in the general population.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The odds ratio for severe disease:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">for Vitamin D </span><span style="font-family: arial;">20–30ng/ml, 50–74 nmol/L</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> <b>OR=1</b> (reference)</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">for Vitamin D <10ng/ml, <25nmol/L <b>OR=2.37</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There is no surprise here: severe disease is much more likely in those with the the very low blood levels of VItamin D, less than 10ng/ml, 25nmol/L.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The study therefore identified something expected. But there is more to consider.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>High blood VItamin D</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were 18 patients with Vitamin D greater than </span><span style="font-family: arial;">40ng/ml, 100nmol/L. For these the odds ratio of severe Covid-19 was h</span><span><span style="font-family: arial;">igh, with </span><b style="font-family: arial;">OR=4.65. </b><span style="font-family: arial;">This was an unexpected finding.</span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We know about Vitamin D "intoxication", hypervitaminosis D, in which excess Vitamin D causes an increase in the amount of calcium in the blood and in the urine. This can occur only with very high blood levels of Vitamin D, greater than about 200ng/ml, 500nmol/L.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">But in this study there was no hypervitaminosis D, as judged by high calcium level in the blood, but we do see a disadvantage of a blood Vitamin D level just greater than 40ng/ml, 100nmol/L.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;">The report is of quadruple (OR=4.65) the risk of severe Covid-19 in this group with </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Vitamin D level >40ng/ml, 100nmol/L </span><span style="font-family: arial;">compared to the reference range of </span><span style="font-family: arial;">20–30ng/ml, 50–74 nmol/L.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>An explanation</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This finding came as a surprise to me as this result has not appeared in other studies. Is it just a chance finding, a sort of mistake? All findings need to be replicated before they are generally accepted, or there must be a plausible mechanism, some connection that makes sense. But initial findings such as this must not be dismissed.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The paper from the study looked into a plausible explanation. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We must remember that Vitamin D produced in the skin or taken by mouth must be converted in the liver into 25(OH)D, the form which it circulates in the blood. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In response to infection and to enable immune response, 25(OH)D is taken up by the immunity cells and is activated into 1,25(OH)D, which then unlocks VDR. A molecule of 1,25(OH)D can be used only once, and then it is converted into the inactive 24,25(OH)D.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgj2gAUVxQrMwyOM6RPzKtckM7pwfuqQQSWBVe7bI-B-GFM0w4hrUOwtCG6jxY3__tEYIfZIkrWRupfsNP-STeJwaD5cK0UQ38tEa72U1vgbqO9gcyIuTTpv1TD7AxPdURW63kDtscE4sMCPbjZyh79Pc1T-zEy0NE6zX61PcjpCwPUQFPdwxi8tPBZIQ=s910" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="910" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgj2gAUVxQrMwyOM6RPzKtckM7pwfuqQQSWBVe7bI-B-GFM0w4hrUOwtCG6jxY3__tEYIfZIkrWRupfsNP-STeJwaD5cK0UQ38tEa72U1vgbqO9gcyIuTTpv1TD7AxPdURW63kDtscE4sMCPbjZyh79Pc1T-zEy0NE6zX61PcjpCwPUQFPdwxi8tPBZIQ=w400-h190" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /> </span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">25(OH)D is converted into the active 1,25(OH)D by the enzyme 1-alpha hydroxylase. Now, it appears that when the blood level of 25(OH)D increases above </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: large;">40ng/ml, 100nmol/L, "Fibroblast Growth Factor 23" (FGF23) is induced, and this leads to the suppression of </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">the enzyme 1-alpha hydroxylase. Activation of 25(OH)D to 1,25(OH)D will </span><span style="font-family: arial;">thereby be suppressed, and as a result there will be a diminished immune response.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This is a perfect example of the interaction of enzyme systems, feedback control mechanisms, </span><span style="font-family: arial;">that became essential in evolution</span><span style="font-family: arial;">. The inactivation of 1,25(OH)D to 24,25(OH)D is an excellent example of an essential control system, and the suppression of </span><span style="font-family: arial;">the enzyme 1-alpha hydroxylase would be another</span><span style="font-family: arial;">.</span></span></p><p><b style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">Free and bio-available Vitamin D</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Other Vitamin D parameters were investigated in the Liverpool study. When we assess blood levels of Vitamin D we measure it in its form that has been processed in the liver, 25(OH)D (also known as calcidiol or calcifediol). This is carried in the blood as a reserve, ready for use as and when necessary. In the blood it is bound to a specific Vitamin D Binding Protein (DBP), the amount of which can vary from person to person. This is because DBP is genetically determined, and the gene penetration is variable, determined by genetic polymorphisms, differences. The vast majority of 25(OH)D is bound to DBP and only 0.03% of it "free", unbound. Did this make a difference? </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This was investigated and it was found that there was no relationship between DBP, and free D with mortality. Measuring 25(OH)D seems to be a satisfactory way to assess Vitamin D status.</span></p><p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusion</span></b></p><p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">The </span><span style="font-family: Arial;">pandemic of Covid-19 has given huge </span><span style="font-family: Arial;">research opportunity to investigate the </span><span style="font-family: Arial;">optimisation of natural defensive immunity,</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;"> with the role of Vitamin D based on extensive research during the previous forty years. </span></p><p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">Taking together the Israel and Liverpool studies, we can conclude that to minimise severe or fatal Covid-19 it is necessary for the blood level of Vitamin D to be between 30ng/ml, 75nmol/L and </span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">40ng/ml, 100nmol/L.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>It is clear that it is necessary to monitor regularly the blood level of Vitamin D so as to determine the optimal dose. </b></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>We must monitor the blood parameters when correcting Vitamin D deficiency just as we monitor blood parameters when we treat diabetes and thyroid disorders.</b></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>I have noted many Comments. I have attempted to reply to them, but unfortunately, and for reasons that I do not understand, my replies do not attach. Sorry about this.</i></span></p><p style="font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></div></div></div>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-91283340322761492332022-02-04T08:42:00.005-08:002022-02-07T10:02:10.831-08:00Covid-19 : How much Vitamin D do we need ?<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>How much Vitamin D should we take?</b></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjR-qrbvaTPilLWFHlMo3mBn69cXxJXgaWMtYtYLN0FSErFN5YM_Ka-17XDjk2PNmjSZveDNY19JdxFZbBavgQOj-KvLA4Sp6A1yvHtJgpz_nMuON4zPIoX_woGhCXziW4LxcazGgZqIIQdI8_rPj3GJ3CQfLefpTM7eBzJDGtqN1zFU6QpufMIJ4Zt-A=s708" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="496" data-original-width="708" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjR-qrbvaTPilLWFHlMo3mBn69cXxJXgaWMtYtYLN0FSErFN5YM_Ka-17XDjk2PNmjSZveDNY19JdxFZbBavgQOj-KvLA4Sp6A1yvHtJgpz_nMuON4zPIoX_woGhCXziW4LxcazGgZqIIQdI8_rPj3GJ3CQfLefpTM7eBzJDGtqN1zFU6QpufMIJ4Zt-A=w400-h280" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is as well to go back to the beginning. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Emergence of rickets</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Rickest was perhaps the first disease of industrial civilisation.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">During the 19th century it was clear that the childhood bone disease rickets was very rare, probably unknown, in the coastal communities of Scotland and the mountain communities of Austria, but it became increasingly common in the industrial cities. It was realised that the heavily polluted atmosphere was the cause, but what could be the treatment? Going to live in the mountains of Austria was not a realistic proposition for those living in cities. Similarly the population of Glasgow could not relocate to the coast.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">So it was important to identify the factors of living on the coast, or in the mountains, that could somehow be brought to the populations of the cities. In Austria, children affected with rickets and tuberculosis (they often co-existed) had go to mountain fresh air, and as it turned out, the Sun shining out of clear air.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In the coastal communities of Scotland, c</span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">od liver oil was the answer</span><span style="font-family: arial;">. The fact that its active ingredient was unknown was not important: empiricalism was fine. It was obvious from observation and experience that cod liver oil could heal rickets and improve health. No more information was required. There had been no 'Randomised Controlled Trials', but large numbers of informal observations. The dose was ill-defined, just a spoonful a day.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The important thing is that in both Scotland and Austria it was agreed that the cause of rickets was atmospheric pollurion and indoor work, with little exposure to the sun..</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Identification of Vitamin D</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It was in the early 20th century that chemistry advanced to allow an analysis of cod liver oil, extracting the active ingredient. It was tested using laboratory mice. The amount of Vitamin D was so tiny that it could not be weighed and so it had to be measured by its biological effect. This was not easy and there had to be an international standard that would be equivalent to defined weights. It was decided and accepted that one unit of Vitamin D was the amount that was necessary for the optimal growth and apparent health of a ten gram immature mouse. Because it was accepted by all, it was called an International Unit, iu. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It was much later that it became possible to measure Vitamin D by weight. The mass of one unit was found to be 20 billionths of a gram, a very tiny amount.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>We can scale up from the mouse. If one unit is the requirement of a ten gram mouse, a sixty kilogram human would require about 6,000 units. </b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This is a good starting point. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Basing the dose of a Vitamin D supplement on body weight is sensible, 100 units per kilogram per day. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Recomendations from the UK Standing Committee on Nutrition (SACN) tells us that the recomended dose of vitamin D supplement is 400 units each day. This is based on the need to avoid rickets in children. Bone health is a steady state process, very different from escalation of defensive immunity. SACN only suggests that Vitamin D might have a role in immunity </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">but is hardly convinced of this. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Perhaps in the interests of caution, half the mouse equivalent dose might be adequate, 3,000 units each day for a 60kg person, 5,000 units each day for a 100kg person.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>The need for monitoring and adjustment of dose</b></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There is obviously variation in the need for individuals and so follow up assessment is necessary.. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is the same with insulin (discovered in 1922). The starting point for the dose is one unit per hour, the amount normally produced by the body. Once again insulin, identified at about the same time as Vitamin D, is measured in bilogical units, still maintained even though insulin can now be measured by mass.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> For convenience and because of the short half-life of insulin, 24 units per day is usually given as 8 units three times a day, or 16 units in the morning and 8 units in the late afternoon. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Adjustments are made to meet the requirement of the individual as monitored by blood testing of blood glucose or HbA1c. There is no value in monitoring the blood levels of insulin as the effect of insulin is so variable. Type 2 diabetes is mainly due to insulin resistance, something not well-understood but which reduces the effect of insulin. In Type 2 diabetes blood levels of insulin are usually increased in that we are dealing with resistance not deficiency. The body's production of insulin increases in an attempt to overcome resistance, but the maximum production can be reached before this occurs and so diabetes develops.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There is also a variation of effect of Vitamin D, but this is quite rare and results from genetic variations in the structure of the Vitamin D Receptor, VDR polymorphisms. The way to assess routinely the appropriate dose of Vitamin D is to measure the amount of it circulating in the blood. But in doing so we do not measure</span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">, cholecalciferol,</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> Vitamin D itself.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Vitamin D within the body</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Most of our Vitamin D is produced in the skin by the action of UV from the sun on the oil 7-dehydro-cholesterol (7-DHC) that is synthesised in the skin (exceptin the very elderly.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">When Vitamin D is produced in the skin, taken by mouth, or given by injection, it is taken in the blood to the liver. It then undergoes a slow conversion (by the addition of an -OH group) to 25(OH)D, also known as Calcidiol or Calcifediol. This is the important form of Vitamin D which is the reserve circulating in the blood, like petrol or deisel in the fuel tank of a car, or charge in a battery. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg2yJgsvF80N1H-6iDWqWkEl3MrMK6QTVEQbyJWKU-Xc_zpHrJNkEMcq6m5QVbImBd8hJNPsAONWRq3XZKmk_K6qgn1KqzaSIoOmHAy1WKGGfOLSKjqYgbk_UKhVxSZZnYia8ZrF2VzivUI2-g_kU_fPfLkoq4sCbK01u6qhgRwDli7rerCyNiWwUtf9w=s626" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="284" data-original-width="626" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg2yJgsvF80N1H-6iDWqWkEl3MrMK6QTVEQbyJWKU-Xc_zpHrJNkEMcq6m5QVbImBd8hJNPsAONWRq3XZKmk_K6qgn1KqzaSIoOmHAy1WKGGfOLSKjqYgbk_UKhVxSZZnYia8ZrF2VzivUI2-g_kU_fPfLkoq4sCbK01u6qhgRwDli7rerCyNiWwUtf9w=w640-h290" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br />Figure 1, Pathway of Vitamin D activation and action</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">25(OH)D, a simple and accurate term, is carried in the blood bound to specific protein, called of course D-binding protein (DBP). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Genetic variations – polymorphisms</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">LIke all proteins DBP is synthesised in the body from a template that is genetically encoded. It is in our genes, and with all genes mutations (chemical errors) can occur. When mutations are compatible with life they can become a variation within the species. They are then called 'polymorphisms', different forms. But they might still give a disadvantage, and of course mutations are millions of times more likely to give a disadvantage rather than an advantage. In the reasonably well recorded history of humankind during more than two millenia, has there been a single advantageous mutation? There have certainly been millions of mutations that have been incompatible with life or causing serious disadvantage.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">If there is a DBP polymorphism, the blood level of Vitamin D measured in its circulating form of 25(OH)D will not be able to give an accurate assment of Vitamin D status, causing the blood level to be inevitably deficient. This is however rare but is likely to encountered by a Vitamin D clinical specialist.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In practice the blood level of VItamin D as 25(OH)D is used as a measure of Vitamin D status, determining whether an individual is or is not deficient. It is also used to determine the appropriate dose of a supplement to correct Vitamin D deficiency.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>'Ideal' or 'normal'?</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In the treatment of diabetes, or thyroid disorder (over- or under-activity), or hypertension, or body weight, we do not just give a single dose of a tablet or injection, or diet to all, but we define an ideal target. We aim at an ideal blood glucose or HbA1c, or T4 and TSH, or blood pressure, or body weight. And so it is with Vitamin D. With all the ideal is identified by careful clinical observation.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is better to use the term 'ideal' rather than 'normal'. 'Normal' is based on an average with the population distributed reasonably evenly on both sides of the average. But if most people are obese there will be a skew, and average 'normal' weight will be excessive, not ideal. We must aim for 'ideal', that which gives the greatest health advantage.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The extent of VItamin D deficiency</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Most people have blood levels of Vitamin D that puts them at a disadvantage. The has been shown in many studies before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. An example is a population survey in Germany in 2015. </span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhacJYK0QnCbhk3gy6tYcYEFzk0NCr1nFnIOC3kGQExHQXsjhGvKVT75cntLK2e4v4bGNRY7UD-aPrtCmCkexQB7I84rIjE1rna3hyj6zbUDvrze7bucjSLhFA4f2qVqpRspKyHvfymo_uOQKEL4eF2hT1tYy3ngxZCOgNASkFWcNO715EtRP8mjhuwcg=s1046" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="836" data-original-width="1046" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhacJYK0QnCbhk3gy6tYcYEFzk0NCr1nFnIOC3kGQExHQXsjhGvKVT75cntLK2e4v4bGNRY7UD-aPrtCmCkexQB7I84rIjE1rna3hyj6zbUDvrze7bucjSLhFA4f2qVqpRspKyHvfymo_uOQKEL4eF2hT1tYy3ngxZCOgNASkFWcNO715EtRP8mjhuwcg=w400-h320" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 2. Vitamin D status in Germany</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We can see in Figure 2 the result of a population sample study undertaken in Germany in 2015. There is an obvious 'skew' in the distribution. We can see that only 11.8% of the sample had a blood vitamin D greater than 75nmol/L, which is 30ng/ml. More than half had a blood level less than 50nmol/L, which is only 20ng/ml.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The solid red line represents the threshold: research during the pandemic has shown us that lower vitamin D l</span><span style="font-family: arial;">evels are associated with a increased risk of serious Covid-19m whereas above this threshold the risk of serious illness is very low. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The dotted red line represents 100nmol/L, which is 40ng/ml. This should be the safe target blood level.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A recent study in Israel observed 1176 people admitted hospital with Covid-19 and of whom 253 in retropect were found to have records of previous blood levels of Vitamin D. </span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjYObZ1l_hHavpGyHd0Opoj-KUytxBRsaF2VE2yg6p9O81RGsP9rP1epgsn83BKaPbHgRbpNOHptmXVXlg3dG4dn360PDyLAZwew_masT907NpheE5hTCcwtGlr4qy-rdkTrI3wsroPt9VP_Ks93OHzQU9Y1vq25smkLYdRy1Eheobvnz6Dc-k4bEvEsA=s864" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="864" height="586" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjYObZ1l_hHavpGyHd0Opoj-KUytxBRsaF2VE2yg6p9O81RGsP9rP1epgsn83BKaPbHgRbpNOHptmXVXlg3dG4dn360PDyLAZwew_masT907NpheE5hTCcwtGlr4qy-rdkTrI3wsroPt9VP_Ks93OHzQU9Y1vq25smkLYdRy1Eheobvnz6Dc-k4bEvEsA=w640-h586" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 3. Blood levels of Vitamin D in Israel</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Once again we find that half the group of patients had blood levels of Vitamin D less than 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>The serious disadvantage of Vitamin D deficiency</b></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I have reviewed the</span><span><span style="font-family: arial;"> findings of this study from Israel </span><a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/12/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-strong-evidence.html" style="font-family: arial;">in a previous Blog post</a><span style="font-family: arial;">. If we look at the patients who were critically ill with Covid-19 we ca</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">n see a summary of the findings of the study.</span></span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEja86c4d6drsrzOP1bNUfwhK09kKhUZA2cPbkfqAAgNPQH8Wskrva_DMIA9sEDikit9_smFqNL3zT0EeaHfmgmQxfT7gPEmgReSGtpy-Vm2VXxYDSEAI3WSfYRnHyZwsX9bYeiNje3-M8lQeU4ozuJjEy5D4LmWTJFGWIUhfnQITvkma4K5uDkHsL_PHw=s540" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="378" data-original-width="540" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEja86c4d6drsrzOP1bNUfwhK09kKhUZA2cPbkfqAAgNPQH8Wskrva_DMIA9sEDikit9_smFqNL3zT0EeaHfmgmQxfT7gPEmgReSGtpy-Vm2VXxYDSEAI3WSfYRnHyZwsX9bYeiNje3-M8lQeU4ozuJjEy5D4LmWTJFGWIUhfnQITvkma4K5uDkHsL_PHw=w640-h448" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 4. Blood levels of VItamin D predicting severity of Covid-19</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It shows what previous studies had shown, that patients with critical or fatal Covid-19 almost entirely had low levels of Vitamin D. We can also judge the blood level of Vitamin D that appears to be 'safe', like a safe blood pressure or glucose. This can only be judged by careful observation, as in Israel. The role of observation has been repeatedly trivialised during the pandemic (apart from in vaccine assessments), but science is based on careful observation.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Observation tells us that a blood Vitamin D level above 30ng/ml, 75nmol/L, is perfectly safe and reduces considerably the risk of critical or fatal Covid-19. <b>To aim at the range of 40 to 60 ng/ml, 100 to 150 nmol/L is wise,</b> to make certain that we have a full reserve. Various studies, including that from Israel, have shown no cases of Vitamin D excess.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We can also see from the study in Israel that very few people have a blood level of Vitamin D greater that 30ng/ml, 75nmol/L, despite living in a very sunny country. Vitamin D deficiency is very common, 50% in this sample, remembering that the blood testing was well in advance of the illness.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The present definition of Vitamin D deficiency</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Vitamin D deficiency should be defined as a blood level less than 30ng/ml, 75nmol/L. It has previously been defined as less than 10ng/ml, 25nmol/L but this was based on the prevention of rickets, not on optimisation of immunity and protection against serious infection. As mentioned above SACN, the UK Standing Advisory Committee on Nutrition, does not acknowledge the pivotal role of Vitamin D in defensive immunity, just mentioning that there is a 'suggestion'. I hope that during the pandemic of Covid-19 SACN has learned as much about the importance of Vitamin D as I have learned.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There is sometmes the expression of 'Vitamin D insufficiency', meaning somewhere between deficiency and adequacy or ideal. 'Insufficiency effectively means little reserve, a situation best avoided if possible, whether Vitamin D, fuel in the car, money in the bank. When setting out on a car journey it would be unwise to have an insufficiency of fuel.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I have used the analogy previously of the motor car and the importance of a full tank of petrol or diesel, or a full battery charge, when setting out on a long and uncertain journey. And so it is with Vitamin D during our uncertain journey through life: we do not want to 'conk out' on the way, before reaching our expected destination.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The need for a constant supply of VItamin D</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is important that we have a fairly constant supply of Vitamin D so as to maintain the reserve of 25(OH)D, calcifediol, in the blood. This is difficult when we live closer to the North Pole than to the Equator, and especially with indoor work. Solar UV has little opportunity to produce Vitamin D in our skin.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We have seen that in temperate zones serious Vitamin D deficiency is common and serious illness can result from it. In the interests of the health of the public it would be sensible to screen for blood levels of Vitamin D and correct with appropriate supplement if deficient. Screening should certainly occur early in pregnancy so that no baby is born with Vitamin D deficiency.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>This is the ideal but before we get to that point, a 60kg person living in temperate zones should take a supplement of Vitamin D 3,000 units daily, scaled up or down depending on body weight. Even if you are not deficient, taking this will be of no disadvantage.</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhCvbphzgLvf2wwyu6HAE2-c8miqB4eiCY7Xh3RwIpMr4iNnbtJlWmwJWIVXDZeAgUUxLsrUoDW8oY9ptChoLUvru4kLeq95u_RlfmZMbq4PWtSFPhREj6gCpfdfcpi3iC6ITCeLP9UMLbycw-6zrjrkpMp9RV-hxdrxifSq7aKupax1H6--L_tQc_vXg=s4032" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1402" data-original-width="4032" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhCvbphzgLvf2wwyu6HAE2-c8miqB4eiCY7Xh3RwIpMr4iNnbtJlWmwJWIVXDZeAgUUxLsrUoDW8oY9ptChoLUvru4kLeq95u_RlfmZMbq4PWtSFPhREj6gCpfdfcpi3iC6ITCeLP9UMLbycw-6zrjrkpMp9RV-hxdrxifSq7aKupax1H6--L_tQc_vXg=w640-h221" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>Winter sun at 45 degrees north of the equator, but no Vitamin D production</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-4021847849334368692022-01-02T13:25:00.006-08:002022-01-04T13:15:10.585-08:00Covid-19 & Vitamin D : Malaysia, Indonesia – Protease inhibitors<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><b>Can we learn anything from the experience of Malaysia and Indonesia?</b></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><b>Viral protease inhibitors</b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi-dDLKgu4LHag3fdmUrE0aPkveBhytN2JpBYdAPSExxvDgZ6MeBMQ4KJ4l-iO2jGBu9vLp2Ou0HSnGYh4D93d-IxLcXHAksej_FdFrrXV3AtQwDi80d1suoEgiTfomtivQXiksqnPzajYn1EkzC1qBzjfDaXHxcSxGsMP0uzHshRw9fil_F529JCkJ-w=s657" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="285" data-original-width="657" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi-dDLKgu4LHag3fdmUrE0aPkveBhytN2JpBYdAPSExxvDgZ6MeBMQ4KJ4l-iO2jGBu9vLp2Ou0HSnGYh4D93d-IxLcXHAksej_FdFrrXV3AtQwDi80d1suoEgiTfomtivQXiksqnPzajYn1EkzC1qBzjfDaXHxcSxGsMP0uzHshRw9fil_F529JCkJ-w=w400-h174" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I have been following the Covid-19 pandemic in Malaysia as I have visited this country on several occasions. It is a good example of a country very close to the Equator, and by contrast the UK is closer to the North Pole than to the Equator.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Quiet in 2020</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">While the UK and Europe were experiencing large numbers of cases and deaths from Covid-19 during early and late 2020, all was quiet in Malaysia (population 32.7 million, see Figure 3) and neighbouring Indonesia (population 273.5 million), even though they are very close to China, the epicentre of the pandemic. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In the UK, the high numbers in early 2020 diminished as expected in the Spring and Summer, as a result of the production of vitamin D in our skin with the mid-day Sun being more than 45 degrees above the horizon. This gives the ambient sunlight a sufficiently high energy to break the specific intramolecular bond in the 7-dehydrocholesterol (7-DHC) molecule synthesised in the skin so as <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/04/vitamin-d-and-immunity-important.html">to form Vitamin D</a> (see Figure 1). </span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiB2PrWb5UGY1NwJiHLERB-VWrfOQywtMptVqILwQWFBSkbyHmJ9qheL7bIB52SCiRPWxrFdqOTIbhBtH5BAhUKFHfrnVa8m8C33Tc8LwGgHNk88WYX17hSo4yMyIrfsNWko72VEJ0mNdXRbdUMa9vnvapNLI0htifrbkYgsRIfF_WxE0fbPJ7snxwyrQ=s758" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="508" data-original-width="758" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiB2PrWb5UGY1NwJiHLERB-VWrfOQywtMptVqILwQWFBSkbyHmJ9qheL7bIB52SCiRPWxrFdqOTIbhBtH5BAhUKFHfrnVa8m8C33Tc8LwGgHNk88WYX17hSo4yMyIrfsNWko72VEJ0mNdXRbdUMa9vnvapNLI0htifrbkYgsRIfF_WxE0fbPJ7snxwyrQ=w400-h268" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 1. Action of UV on the molecule of 7-dehydrocholesterol (7-DHC)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Figure 2, below, shows how the pandemic in the UK settled during mid-2020, under the influence of Vitamin D produced in the skin.</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEitLkFrrndl-9TAXk0_-n-rJ1NxiGbI5pRFMCDkMxJEPqoD_Qv-zzMI3OEMhniVdCA3N0ZgB6xnZkqvvo7UKzhybZx92Sj10-bvZIBTnVb62IHsk0jA68Cdu_hZX563bnzZ1yvsw66m-emuetZviv9p_nQnmFiAsKpr4O59g10poTJuS4N8R9889-QsVg=s2110" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="2110" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEitLkFrrndl-9TAXk0_-n-rJ1NxiGbI5pRFMCDkMxJEPqoD_Qv-zzMI3OEMhniVdCA3N0ZgB6xnZkqvvo7UKzhybZx92Sj10-bvZIBTnVb62IHsk0jA68Cdu_hZX563bnzZ1yvsw66m-emuetZviv9p_nQnmFiAsKpr4O59g10poTJuS4N8R9889-QsVg=w640-h250" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 2. UK: Covid-19 cases each during 2020 </span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">At the Equator, UV from the Sun has high intensity all the year round, giving those who live there the opportunity for adequate vitamin D production with subsequent optimal immunity and health advantages. This was the most obvious and most simple explanation for the low numbers and deaths from Covid-19 during the early part of 2020, despite the close proximity to China. However this did not continue and Covid-19 cases increased rapidly in late 2020. This must be regarded as the arrival of the virus, as there are no solar seasons close to the equator.</span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEij7Y_zrHjTNFCxF_KO3XVv-9xySt8_IZeMD5dHi-m11JNj_Ur836996BIoIDoNMo0Shae8PXsgPIUtUFw2mM8YweqvfxSvcdn9Xp5hzXdc7x5Wlp8qmPy5B3SzFMo066x3ATNkLz3DGeGTMqEnwN2ZMJwB7DE7opHpm8oIxQX_zZNbWuAzp7QSXvZf-Q=s1028" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="676" data-original-width="1028" height="419" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEij7Y_zrHjTNFCxF_KO3XVv-9xySt8_IZeMD5dHi-m11JNj_Ur836996BIoIDoNMo0Shae8PXsgPIUtUFw2mM8YweqvfxSvcdn9Xp5hzXdc7x5Wlp8qmPy5B3SzFMo066x3ATNkLz3DGeGTMqEnwN2ZMJwB7DE7opHpm8oIxQX_zZNbWuAzp7QSXvZf-Q=w640-h419" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 3. Malaysia – Covid-19 cases per day 2020</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Adjacent Indonesia (Figure 4) showed a similar pattern during 2020. In </span><span style="font-family: arial;">relationship to populations size, the cases in Malaysia were much higher than in Indonesia. The reason for this is not obvious.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi8umO0PEI8bNlJdSmhDwkTWwK_5jD1LS7QGs18Fxw3aZqEGKDzYcooHysGzM1SRYH_tDl-oEQUWNuuWYgDWj35qIoTbRtFLCguRjTjlCoTFXgLQR9mhXLp0RHo4ualOxfwBEuI6nr6cjjaDFmqtJXXt1mg12o1kQXrlosgExEX6v89VMD8kLNUHNktvA=s1360" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="856" data-original-width="1360" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi8umO0PEI8bNlJdSmhDwkTWwK_5jD1LS7QGs18Fxw3aZqEGKDzYcooHysGzM1SRYH_tDl-oEQUWNuuWYgDWj35qIoTbRtFLCguRjTjlCoTFXgLQR9mhXLp0RHo4ualOxfwBEuI6nr6cjjaDFmqtJXXt1mg12o1kQXrlosgExEX6v89VMD8kLNUHNktvA=w640-h400" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 4. Indonesia – Covid-19 cases per day 2020</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Note in Figure 3 that in late 2020 there was a maximum of 2,250 cases per day in Malaysia. We can regard this as "quiet", especially if we display it in the same scale (Figure 5) that will be used for 2021 (Figure 6).</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgabyqXkrHpI9puH38tyjCWRa49lN21D3fGBNqMj5FDDntZWoOKpZtK6PQHZo4gp7g1fouzDcGhj9plA8vyjsi1XLh4-mgfUIRgUmFAbkD74ZdBRKrIBWM3wNrbucu1VaVeKTIqrQ8YAyM7W6cA2uz-bqBWqZy0MHr2zLI1Tpm4sEwARdM1iDQMAVcIMg=s1068" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="658" data-original-width="1068" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgabyqXkrHpI9puH38tyjCWRa49lN21D3fGBNqMj5FDDntZWoOKpZtK6PQHZo4gp7g1fouzDcGhj9plA8vyjsi1XLh4-mgfUIRgUmFAbkD74ZdBRKrIBWM3wNrbucu1VaVeKTIqrQ8YAyM7W6cA2uz-bqBWqZy0MHr2zLI1Tpm4sEwARdM1iDQMAVcIMg=w640-h394" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Figure 5. Malaysia – Covid-19 cases per day 2020 <br />(same data as Figure 3, but different scale)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>2021 was very different</b> <br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The early months on 2021 continued to be "quiet" in Malysia, Covid-19 case numbers reaching a maximum of about 5,000 per day. However during the latter part of the 2021 there was a considerable increase in cases to 22,500 per day (Figure 6).</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjMWPjo_ez5tDP7KiyNutYdFF0G0aDxyhf6npJVF6Yple38Nx2cDRN1UJl9QaogOmi7HwGjLnzdq5mw054dA5G0F8x1TM7Cwpd36cPHp3oq-HZdgYFoZMyrUD6VYORLREYEmRZVRlIgW0p-uOqaf-LQIsT3m3GM9JOVQuNHEF16mNNmiy6obc0o5zl0Aw=s1628" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="774" data-original-width="1628" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjMWPjo_ez5tDP7KiyNutYdFF0G0aDxyhf6npJVF6Yple38Nx2cDRN1UJl9QaogOmi7HwGjLnzdq5mw054dA5G0F8x1TM7Cwpd36cPHp3oq-HZdgYFoZMyrUD6VYORLREYEmRZVRlIgW0p-uOqaf-LQIsT3m3GM9JOVQuNHEF16mNNmiy6obc0o5zl0Aw=w640-h304" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Figure 6. Malaysia – Covid-19 cases each day in 2021</span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Covid-19 deaths had been very few in Malaysia during 2020 and early 2021, but there was a very rapid increase during the middle of the year (Figure 7). </span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhBjsm9J9GeUhWIk80xdjjjwuNTdXQnPjkWI9Q5fSuodxD6jHW3E9ooBZ3jyvEJPjgaQMm9M70XejVdF2eNuNgPR5CnLuiE7bt2nbgFr4gj8W4-lZBlZ365asDYaco7jrDDi4Rdb6vkdxnekyI9RugLxABLaJavoHOhnOpHvEVsknoeRSSHfI0tJ_sHGA=s1942" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="874" data-original-width="1942" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhBjsm9J9GeUhWIk80xdjjjwuNTdXQnPjkWI9Q5fSuodxD6jHW3E9ooBZ3jyvEJPjgaQMm9M70XejVdF2eNuNgPR5CnLuiE7bt2nbgFr4gj8W4-lZBlZ365asDYaco7jrDDi4Rdb6vkdxnekyI9RugLxABLaJavoHOhnOpHvEVsknoeRSSHfI0tJ_sHGA=w640-h288" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 7. Malaysia – Covid-19 deaths each day in 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The reason for this was not obvious. With Covid-19 cases being so low for more than year, why was there was such a dramatic increase in June 2021? What happened immediately before the increase that might have caused it?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The answer is a major vaccination programme, starting at the beginning of June 2021 (Figure 8).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjftdi4UdGksetEz285uBt6VKSSAL7gCmTlXSKnV5flTIn_MgivPo0Vu0gDwgCUYCf0-s4EKogvTnN5g3z1oYzjsb4Rl__WjZ6qQej4F700Llp8CEeIqugHpO_ENPqydSLUegaVYdKPFplDZZZXkaM5KyNahORoGSaYsMaZR1KW2IrTMN3AtAE-N2fG1g=s1300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="822" data-original-width="1300" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjftdi4UdGksetEz285uBt6VKSSAL7gCmTlXSKnV5flTIn_MgivPo0Vu0gDwgCUYCf0-s4EKogvTnN5g3z1oYzjsb4Rl__WjZ6qQej4F700Llp8CEeIqugHpO_ENPqydSLUegaVYdKPFplDZZZXkaM5KyNahORoGSaYsMaZR1KW2IrTMN3AtAE-N2fG1g=w640-h404" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 8. Malaysia – vaccination initiative starting in early June 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The vaccination initiative was similar in Indonesia (Figure 9), but more gradual as the country is much larger and widespread than Malaysia.</span></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjCWSczw6ToWmd-5gs5igIS_ZP0EG0Z1TeXYW5uHwT9s2GaYv-q9hoH8BpcuH6N3IPb_sKbnZpC1JxTfKKde3_6Ch4o2WzJ902yj7HXVsW1XizjbweF9Hc2b0B6waxQA_73XCq-wWFuSJGoeFb-qy8wwoczX9DV0j929odCV2IWU01qsYSkE07AW6I7aA=s1278" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1278" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjCWSczw6ToWmd-5gs5igIS_ZP0EG0Z1TeXYW5uHwT9s2GaYv-q9hoH8BpcuH6N3IPb_sKbnZpC1JxTfKKde3_6Ch4o2WzJ902yj7HXVsW1XizjbweF9Hc2b0B6waxQA_73XCq-wWFuSJGoeFb-qy8wwoczX9DV0j929odCV2IWU01qsYSkE07AW6I7aA=w640-h414" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(104, 104, 104); color: #686868; font-family: arial;">Figure 9. Indonesia – vaccination initiative starting in early June 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We are seeing what also occurred in many if not most countries of the world, a large increase of Covid-19 immediately following the onset of a large vaccination initiative.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Reason for Covid-19 increase following vaccination initiative</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Why might a vaccination programme cause such a surge in Covid-19 cases? Some people might regard it as a direct "poisoning" effect of the vaccines, with damage to immune mechanisms, but I suggest an alternative explanation which would be readily reversible. It all depends on the vitally important role of VItamin D, which appears to be understood by very few people, including our officials.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/04/vitamin-d-and-immunity-important.html">To recap:</a> most of our Vitamin D is produced in the skin from synthesised 7-DHC. Otherwise it is taken by mouth, or it can be given by injection. However it all passes in the blood stream to the liver. Here it undergoes slow hydroxylation to form 25(OH)D, which is the important reserve circulating in the blood. It is also known as calcidiol or calcifediol. When required for immune escalation, this is taken into the immunity cells and further hydroxylated to its active form 1,25(OH)D, calcitriol.</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjBfYRKyXLdNdpLBSNxL5Z69_U3KZfpg5HA_ABgQvaoeWOzb_BCOpXKlccqrgirSExwSRKReT-jv8v6aq1rAbBQSNn_UjYcpgxXqs6WIyc0MCcwEBLLZToUpyhemG933i8rmepXkwefsItBnx-PE4ibMaqLMBMHfbX0LcRbjmBShCPGb8kL-58yUI279w=s910" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="910" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjBfYRKyXLdNdpLBSNxL5Z69_U3KZfpg5HA_ABgQvaoeWOzb_BCOpXKlccqrgirSExwSRKReT-jv8v6aq1rAbBQSNn_UjYcpgxXqs6WIyc0MCcwEBLLZToUpyhemG933i8rmepXkwefsItBnx-PE4ibMaqLMBMHfbX0LcRbjmBShCPGb8kL-58yUI279w=w640-h304" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 19. Vitamin D and its essential role in defensive immunity</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I have discussed this in<a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-urgent-vaccines-need.html"> a recent Blog post.</a> The vaccination induces an intense inflammatory immune reaction, which involves activation of T-cells and other cells of immunity. It requires the appropriate nuclear genes to be switched on, and for this the intracellular heterodimer VDR–RXR must be activated. And what is essential for the activation of VDR specifically? Vitamin D in its own </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">fully activated form 1,25(OH)D, calcitriol. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>We need a full tank</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We never know when we are going to encounter a serious infection, such as Covid-19, but when we do it is essential to have a good reserve of vitamin D as 25(OH)D in the blood. This will be required to activate the defensive immune response. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is like a car journey. If we are setting out on a long and uncertain car journey it is both sensible and indeed essential to have a full fuel tank. If not there is a danger of "conking out", coming to a halt in the middle of nowhere, or possible on a busy motorway.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEin6YbnSUmD6OJ_3ZKmJILSTbtdIkr91o9v_tbGIHzF1DmsI3t3ALV3NFNQHybnRalQRdbMg_EfggoiakfdTuMGl88TpeBxssZoj3SsLPbLd_Lf84-difSrxFmbCRpdl_0TTUovtfUX9NfqVYpaZ2A0Rdj1Pqcnk_qagVsLRs_LRPEt963DUOamxKb8JA=s580" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="490" data-original-width="580" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEin6YbnSUmD6OJ_3ZKmJILSTbtdIkr91o9v_tbGIHzF1DmsI3t3ALV3NFNQHybnRalQRdbMg_EfggoiakfdTuMGl88TpeBxssZoj3SsLPbLd_Lf84-difSrxFmbCRpdl_0TTUovtfUX9NfqVYpaZ2A0Rdj1Pqcnk_qagVsLRs_LRPEt963DUOamxKb8JA=w400-h338" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">And so it is with Vitamin D. If we encounter a serious infection and we have a low reserve of Vitamin D in the blood, there is a danger of critical illness or death. We can "conk out" in just the same way as the car with an empty tank. Unlike a car, we do not have Vitamin D level indicator, but these days it is simple to have the blood level of Vitamin D tested.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We know the critical blood levels of Vitamin D. Experience from Israel has confirmed previous experience that a blood level greater than 40ng/ml (100nmol/L) is safe, a full reserve. On the other hand a level of 20ng/ml (50nmol/L) is very low, and there is a risk of danger ahead.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Fuel, power, and Vitamin D comsumption</b></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There is another analogy. When driving a car on a long journey it is essential to have a full tank because fuel can only be used once. When it has been used (combustion) all that remains is exhaust gases. There is a limit to the number of miles or kilometers to the gallon or litre, or to a full battery charge. When diesel, </span><span style="font-family: arial;">petrol or battery charge are consumed, the tank must be refuelled or the battery recharged. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Fuel/power consumption is low at steady state "Green" speeds, but it increases when the car is driven faster (fuel consumption is high at low speeds as inefficient low gears are used). In a similar way, Vitamin D comsumption is low when we are in steady state good health, but when we are ill, when disease is actve, Vitamin D consumption increases to enable defensive immunity. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg0_CVKG4oLz6EKCYOXe7Q_eGJF_U-Q50OfWx3IBTeidpXyV4lqvRjAPHFOs4-bEt_WTWfic2crqyFVRxQbwZADm_iELTiQrzrPxxMTEEy4PI4z-AJ9N_RPaeFdP-RJ8nzTY87-7BjiyC0ansYAQvKqfQ52OJ6Al_yGueFHeXFdDMGnasAOZ3EWYMbuTA=s1404" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="1404" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg0_CVKG4oLz6EKCYOXe7Q_eGJF_U-Q50OfWx3IBTeidpXyV4lqvRjAPHFOs4-bEt_WTWfic2crqyFVRxQbwZADm_iELTiQrzrPxxMTEEy4PI4z-AJ9N_RPaeFdP-RJ8nzTY87-7BjiyC0ansYAQvKqfQ52OJ6Al_yGueFHeXFdDMGnasAOZ3EWYMbuTA=w640-h362" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 20. Fuel consumption related to car speed</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">A constant amount of Vitamin D as the circulating 25(OH)D is essential to supply its intracellular activated form 1,25(OH)D, which links to and activates VDR (Vitamin D Receptor). The VDR–RXR dimer switches on appropriate genes, but it also automatically stimulates the enzyme 24-hydroxylase. This is safety mechanism that converts 1,25(OH)D into 24,25(OH)D. This is an irreversible process and 24,25(OH)D is inactive. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">a molecule of vitamin D can only be used once.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiPIOPK9pDXUmaBbDyYYGq-XG69dGjelnCSeqFFR113M7DfPa4EFhAtFTxX_w-zbio4GyAWSBJFhruKXtXcbu7_CGONedcgh3T9--jhas54vas1rBaJJybPtUCgOkHLQhnqpZQPckwqsS5Yjp6mVIkLDz1QpzXIVixg5vYsHUmU8CWu3vAlGwA0CshT8Q=s1332" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="330" data-original-width="1332" height="157" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiPIOPK9pDXUmaBbDyYYGq-XG69dGjelnCSeqFFR113M7DfPa4EFhAtFTxX_w-zbio4GyAWSBJFhruKXtXcbu7_CGONedcgh3T9--jhas54vas1rBaJJybPtUCgOkHLQhnqpZQPckwqsS5Yjp6mVIkLDz1QpzXIVixg5vYsHUmU8CWu3vAlGwA0CshT8Q=w640-h157" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br />Figure 21. Vitamin D molecule can only be used once</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This a success of evolution. If 1,25(OH)D were to remain active, then during an immune escalation the level of 1,25(OH)D would build up to toxic levels. The enzyme 24-hydroxylase ensures that this does not happen. However it necessitates a constant supply of vitamin from the skin or by mouth, and a large reserve of 25(OH)D in the blood to iron out as much a possible natural fluctuations of Vitamin D production during the year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Vitamin D deficiency in Malaysia and Indonesia</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It might be thought that people living in Malaysia and Indonesia, both on the equator, have good reserves of Vitamin D with all year round production of it. But not so. 90% of babies born in Indonesia are deficient of Vitamin D, and this represents the Vitamin D status of their mothers. During childhood Vitamin D levels increase as a consequence of exposure to the Sun. but this is constrained in adult life.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Generally people in hot tropical countries avoid the Sun as much as possible. . But it is important to remember that Malaysia and in particular Indonesia have very large Muslim </span><span style="font-family: arial;">populations</span><span style="font-family: arial;">, and skin cover by clothing is carried to extremes. UV from the Sun does not penetrate most clothing, and so Vitamin D deficiency is inevitable. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Vitamin D deficiency and Covid-19 vaccination</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">How many of the populations of Malaysia and Indonesia develop mild or subclinical Covid-19 during 2020 is unknown, but they must have encountered the vaccination programme when generally deficient of Vitamin D. The intense immune response following vaccination (and it definitely is intense as judged by the high frequency of mild and transient symptoms) will have consumed a great deal of Vitamin D, but the quantity involved is unknown. As far as I am aware there has been no research so far on the effect of vaccination of blood levels of Vitamin D. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Figure 22 illustrates what will be happening. Vitamin D will be sunsumed by vaccinations, and at this time of the year without natural replenishment. The blood level of Vitamin D will inevitably go down and might reach critically low levels – unless a Vitamin D supplement is taken (dose about 4,000 units daily).</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi9MSCHPLfVtTMH2RX75-8iCCGTPtWXYuun0GdfcMXhDYBy5-s54IGXJLvgUfKR86T4uXjyivDZRWY3GDUU1lNcQzxnpgu5iU72Wy5GEIN-P0Y-GL0uxmE48Em33io1TDM8suYFMBZIZ3CH54XaObYw0S96mfbLBkVzb0E-CUVNDdaSu9Y67VRKU2c48w=s1124" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="716" data-original-width="1124" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi9MSCHPLfVtTMH2RX75-8iCCGTPtWXYuun0GdfcMXhDYBy5-s54IGXJLvgUfKR86T4uXjyivDZRWY3GDUU1lNcQzxnpgu5iU72Wy5GEIN-P0Y-GL0uxmE48Em33io1TDM8suYFMBZIZ3CH54XaObYw0S96mfbLBkVzb0E-CUVNDdaSu9Y67VRKU2c48w=w640-h406" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 22. Illustration of the effect of vacc=inations on VItamin D</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The mass vaccinations must have resulted in mass serious and critical Vitamin D deficiency. The immune process cannot happen without consuming Vitamin D. In fact without adequate Vitamin D the vaccinations could not have given the expected level of protection against Covid-19 – the level and duration of protection has been much less than anticipated, hence so many cases among the vaccinated.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Viral protease inhibitors</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The peaks obviously settled, as they always do. But here we see a difference between Malaysia and Indonesia.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In Malaysia the decline of cases and deaths dropped but not completely. There is a continuing steady state of 3,000 to 4,000 cases per day, and 20 to 40 deaths per day.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">On the other hand in Indonesia there are many fewer at 100 to 200 new cases each day and only about 10 deaths each day.</span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjgLcM4GMCCFjj8lkwEOWFUBrU85vpoZEBtyEEqMZmdFiGKPXimyQmvyoz2Qk960DM6jJgbfxM2w4V-NCGG6qvNUbe8PwZMKW0w6fIIDkNilu61oH60qNpU4-hpJf7C8i_z6yhmnQnkf1FEyGv6kXH0g4kCI5kAD39-px7CGnaRK61qjCX-zfzm6MYxAQ=s1216" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="358" data-original-width="1216" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjgLcM4GMCCFjj8lkwEOWFUBrU85vpoZEBtyEEqMZmdFiGKPXimyQmvyoz2Qk960DM6jJgbfxM2w4V-NCGG6qvNUbe8PwZMKW0w6fIIDkNilu61oH60qNpU4-hpJf7C8i_z6yhmnQnkf1FEyGv6kXH0g4kCI5kAD39-px7CGnaRK61qjCX-zfzm6MYxAQ=w640-h188" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 23. Malaysia & Indonesia Covid-19 cases per day –<br /> the endings of the peaks</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This difference is interesting. I can think of only one plausible answer and that is the additional therapeutic intervention in Indonesia. I am not aware of Vitamin D supplements being given to the population, but apparently Ivermectin therapy was adopted in Indonesia on September 1st 2021. This went against the advice of the WHO, but it was based on the experience of several countries in the east which had good results from Ivermectin, together with much published evidence. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Ivermectin</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I have not followed the Ivermectin story in detail and I am by no means an expert on it. It appears that Ivermectin is "controversial" and it seems to be clear that there has been a successful and co-ordinated mis-information campaign against it. A meta-analysis of 74 papers evaluating Ivermectin showed benefit in 71 of them. I suspect that most informed people accept the value and safety of Ivermectin within its recommended dose, but very few people are informed. This has been the problem during the Covid-19 pandemic: we have not been supplied with much information, just sound-bites. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The most absurd and desperate reason to be vaccinated against Covid-19 came from the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson as reported in the national press on Christmas Eve:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjzwkLDkwHRn2lbS_eHV-bzgAjqc-vXAhBdotNgP7ohTAuEo3KkWdjpPUGzNeC8SQaUX9wINIghkXwAOcfJdGPT-8uKFPaBd0ZCIpo5qwzhfuojUYxOSdCv_tAXvGLUF76NlTGRWuunOuDxc-7gNbMMGieS9YKZxxLYsp5z_Z6lLHGMUchQ3eMnQXeG2w=s779" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="413" data-original-width="779" height="170" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjzwkLDkwHRn2lbS_eHV-bzgAjqc-vXAhBdotNgP7ohTAuEo3KkWdjpPUGzNeC8SQaUX9wINIghkXwAOcfJdGPT-8uKFPaBd0ZCIpo5qwzhfuojUYxOSdCv_tAXvGLUF76NlTGRWuunOuDxc-7gNbMMGieS9YKZxxLYsp5z_Z6lLHGMUchQ3eMnQXeG2w=s320" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Among other properties, Ivermectin is a viral protease inhibitor, which makes it effective against a number of mammalian parasites, including viruses.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Pfizer has developed its own viral protease inhibitor, during development known as </span><span style="caret-color: rgb(49, 49, 50); color: #313132;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">PF-07321332, and unofficially as "Pfizermectin". On December 23rd 2021 it received an Emergency Use Authorisation (EUA) from the US FDA. It is now called Paxlovid.</span></span></p><p><span style="caret-color: rgb(49, 49, 50); color: #313132;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Now we see why Ivermectin has been ridiculed and buried. Patients with Covid-19 have been told officially that there is no treatment available. They have been denied treatment with Ivermectin 12mg per day for five days from the onset of symptoms. 30 years experience has shown an excellent safety profile of Ivermectin in the correct dose. </span></span></p><p><span style="caret-color: rgb(49, 49, 50); color: #313132;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The EUA for Paxlovid was given on the "understanding" that there were no other treatments available for Covid-19, hence the essential denial and burial of Ivermectin. </span></span></p><p><span style="caret-color: rgb(49, 49, 50); color: #313132;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Exactly the same thing happened with Vitamin D, official denial that it might be of any benefit so that EUAs could be granted for the vaccines.</span></span></p><p><span style="caret-color: rgb(49, 49, 50); color: #313132;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The main problem with both Vitamin D and Ivermectin is that they are too cheap. There is no big money to be made, unlike with vaccines and Paxlovid, which will be sold at several hundred times the price of Vitamin D and Ivermectin.</span></span></p><p><span style="caret-color: rgb(49, 49, 50); color: #313132;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Perhaps it is true to say that the Covid-19 pandemic has been an exercise in transfering money from the poor (the great majority of us) to the very rich. In the process there have been many avoidable deaths and undue pressure being put on the hospitals.</span></span></p><p><span style="caret-color: rgb(49, 49, 50); color: #313132;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Vitamin D consumption</b></span></span></p><p><span style="caret-color: rgb(49, 49, 50); color: #313132;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">But the most important thing at present is the rapid escalation of cases, especially on North America and Europe. My interpretation is that the undoubted intense inflammatory immune response to the vaccinations is inevitably consuming Vitamin D (Figure 22). The resulting immune deficiency is driving the increase in cases, which although usually mild will consume even more Vitamin D, and so we can expect infections of all sorts to become more frequent. This is particularly important during the winter months as it will be a few months before we start to produce Vitamin D.</span></span></p><p><span style="caret-color: rgb(49, 49, 50); color: #313132;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">New York has experienced a cluster of <a href="https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1472024181353193474">tuberculosis</a>. This infection is well-established as developing when immunity is suppressed, as in AIDS, but also resulting from Vitamin D deficiency.</span></span></p><p><span style="caret-color: rgb(49, 49, 50); color: #313132; font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There is every medical reason why Vitamin D should be used extensively at the present time, especially if vaccinations are being given increasingly and at shorter intervals.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Vitamin D is needed now.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgfi38MopyzsfPNkqshrCHuz9A6vvRRocZMckdFyZN2el5liE0NkNLOWxbGymCOAcl60BQU2oOmzKc1-iXsaautWnM7RzKpIwPUHvnyONR97VJPQpTbENLLb-z46WNkQJtkJIf5sPE7W7yLI2EPGw7Se98U6Y4--AuKMMwRoKfQ-QMMKhB6IEHvLvQ2sA=s1218" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="412" data-original-width="1218" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgfi38MopyzsfPNkqshrCHuz9A6vvRRocZMckdFyZN2el5liE0NkNLOWxbGymCOAcl60BQU2oOmzKc1-iXsaautWnM7RzKpIwPUHvnyONR97VJPQpTbENLLb-z46WNkQJtkJIf5sPE7W7yLI2EPGw7Se98U6Y4--AuKMMwRoKfQ-QMMKhB6IEHvLvQ2sA=w640-h216" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Figure 24: Covid-19 cases per day UK & USA at the end of 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-50530811950910446292021-12-09T12:42:00.004-08:002023-07-12T13:40:52.870-07:00Covid-19 and Vitamin D: strong evidence of benefit from Israel<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The importance of Vitamin D in the Covid-19 pandemic: reports from Israel</b></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It has been known for more than 40 years that vitamin D is of vital importance in the escalation of defensive immunity at the time of infection. It is also well-established that people with defective immunity are very susceptible to infection, with a high risk of death, and this has been illustrated well by the experience of AIDS. It has also been established on numerous occasions in many countries that vitamin D deficiency is very common, leading to sub-optimal immunity in many people. </span></p>
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<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In life in general, people are not aware of their vitamin D deficiency and the problems that result from it. Health issues such as respiratory infections, post-operative infections and recovery from surgery, problems in pregnancy, the development of diabetes, certain cancers, and multiple sclerosis are accepted as bad luck, even though they are known to have an increased incidence in people with vitamin D deficiency. </span></p>
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<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">But when faced with a pandemic of Covid-19, a virus against which we have no learned immunity, the rapid time-scale brought disadvantages of vitamin D deficiency and impaired immunity into sharp focus. It was soon after the onset of the pandemic that we learned of the high susceptibility of those with low blood levels of vitamin D to critical and fatal Covid-19. It was obvious that a public health imperative to minimise ICU admissions and deaths, would be to correct vitamin D deficiency as soon as possible. But it was not to be.</span></p>
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<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Susceptibility of particular population groups</span></b></p>
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<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It became clear that the great majority of Covid-19 deaths occurred in the elderly, but we were told that they were just old, the official and unquestioned narrative that had no scientific foundation. Vitamin D is produced by the action of UV from the sun on 7-dehydrocholesterol (7-DHC) that is synthesised in the skin. It has been known for forty years that the thin dry skin of the elderly does not synthesise adequate amounts of 7-DHC and so vitamin D deficiency is inevitable, no matter how much time is spent in the sun. </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxthvLUQ2BnhkCQfVtWE3uuztZYP45wk4Ut2QqnflfaTHrd0j6AF8OXlht-YUbnskJNKaPNdgZdxGzKcu617NDM4eYhWkC3l1-WcDVVvTCTNv2r8-NTgSbFixUZuHDjD9yC5xAlrLRv-o6s9GuhsecKHsL8z-ICE6COHXyGNDl521hetVPpaa_2bdIJw=s1104" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="844" data-original-width="1104" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxthvLUQ2BnhkCQfVtWE3uuztZYP45wk4Ut2QqnflfaTHrd0j6AF8OXlht-YUbnskJNKaPNdgZdxGzKcu617NDM4eYhWkC3l1-WcDVVvTCTNv2r8-NTgSbFixUZuHDjD9yC5xAlrLRv-o6s9GuhsecKHsL8z-ICE6COHXyGNDl521hetVPpaa_2bdIJw=s320" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It was also clear that people of Black African and South Asian ethnicity were particularly susceptible to critical and fatal Covid-19. The official narrative is that this has been the result of socio-economic disadvantage and racism. <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-deaths-of-doctors.html">My reporting </a>of the fact that of 26 working doctors in the UK who died from Covid-19, 25 (96%) were of Black African and South Asian ethnicity went officially unacknowledged even though it was the paradox that invalidated the socio-economic proposal. Well-known vitamin D deficiency in these ethnic groups was the obvious and scientifically established explanation, not officialy acknowledged.</span></p>
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<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In a previous Blog post I reported that the group of people in the UK hit hardest of all by the pandemic of Covid-19 have been <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/03/covid-19-vitamin-d-haredi-bame-obese.html">Haredi Jews</a>, those who are most orthodox. I pointed out that they have sun-avoiding behaviour, not by intent but as a result of clothing and other traditions that result in virtually no exposure of the skin to the sun. </span></p>
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<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">VItamin D in Israel in 2001</span></b></p>
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<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.ima.org.il/FilesUploadPublic/IMAJ/0/58/29036.pdf">Research in Israel 20 years ago</a> investigated vitamin D status in Jewish new mothers in Israel, identifying as to whether they were orthodox (Haredi) or non-orthodox. Blood testing for vitamin D was undertaken after delivery. It was found that in the orthodox mothers the average mean blood level of vitamin D was 13.5ng/ml (34nmol/L) compared to 18.6ng/ml (46.5nmol/L) in non-orthodox mothers.</span></p>
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<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We can see in Figure 1 that extremely low blood levels of less than 5ng/ml, 12.5nmol/L, were found in 5.7% of orthodox mothers and in 2.7% of non-orthodox. Less than 10ng/ml (25nmol/L) was found in 32.7% of orthodox mothers and in 13% of non-orthodox. We will see from a later study how extremely low are these blood levels.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A very small vitamin D supplement of 400 units per day was given to some women during pregnancy and it had a small effect. As a result of this supplement, 2.2% of orthodox mothers had a blood level less than 5ng/ml, 12.5nmol/L, but none of the non-orthodox mothers. 13% of the orthodox mothers receiving the small vitamin D supplement had a blood level less than 10ng/ml, 25nmol/L, compared to 8% in non-orthodox.</span></p>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjaYu0uivey3mZotahGkyD1PnwkS2QfReC-SdsO9swW6XCbm6_372CmFsKvom4csxrSU5oP-fbJd7T7aWB33nHVoib94VKP3lPcpvt5XhsDFvzd2DeT4FL4r2PHEwflMFz44h3mUW-LhFi/s1016/1-2001.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="408" data-original-width="1016" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjaYu0uivey3mZotahGkyD1PnwkS2QfReC-SdsO9swW6XCbm6_372CmFsKvom4csxrSU5oP-fbJd7T7aWB33nHVoib94VKP3lPcpvt5XhsDFvzd2DeT4FL4r2PHEwflMFz44h3mUW-LhFi/w640-h258/1-2001.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Figure 1. Jewish mothers in Israel – vitamin D status</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The messages from this study are that:</span></p>
<ul>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>vitamin D deficiency is very common in Israel, despite a sunny environment</span></li>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>it is more common in orthodox mothers</span></li>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>vitamin D supplement of 400 units per day is of little benefit</span></li>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>blood levels of vitamin D are higher in the summer in non-orthodox mothers</span></li>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>in orthodox mothers, blood levels of vitamin D do not increase in the summer.</span></li>
</ul>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Mukamel MN, Weisman Y, Somech R, et al. Vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency in orthodox and non-orthodox Jewish mothers in Israel. <span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"><i>Isr Med Assoc </i></span>2001; 3: 419-421.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Vitamin D in Israel in 2021</span></b></p>
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<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We now have the results of a new study from Israel. It looks at the outcome of Covid-19 related to pre-infection Vitamin D status, and "Guess What?" The outcome is far better in people with the highest (not toxic) blood levels of Vitamin D. Let us look at the details.</span></p>
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<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The study was of 1176 patients admitted to the Galilee Medical Centre on account of Covid-19. 253 of these had blood levels of Vitamin D measured prior to infection. For the purpose of analysis they were divided into four groups based on blood levels: </span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<ul>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>less than 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L</span></li>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>20 to 29.9ng/ml, 50 to 75nmol/L</span></li>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>30 to 40ng/ml, 75 to 100nmol/L</span></li>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>greater than 40ng/ml, 100nmol/L.</span></li>
</ul>
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<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The analysis shows many interesting features, as displayed in the tables and figures.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjPhjQzpTxJwblUxMQ-tJiU9WLkqeXyePNr0MJT1fBOr6XKtpU25Mi9bhvigK4_jx_c8KrE61IL2U4c-oFWWOSH8gnN99ZgA89X1IOR8FNty_DuHQbmkA5Z7DITWSXcwGXosoY6Nv6njYkv60SVTeVeRY6EIXgCp_m2LrSfooOm3iskzeUQbaFvh-UzXQ=s864" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="864" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjPhjQzpTxJwblUxMQ-tJiU9WLkqeXyePNr0MJT1fBOr6XKtpU25Mi9bhvigK4_jx_c8KrE61IL2U4c-oFWWOSH8gnN99ZgA89X1IOR8FNty_DuHQbmkA5Z7DITWSXcwGXosoY6Nv6njYkv60SVTeVeRY6EIXgCp_m2LrSfooOm3iskzeUQbaFvh-UzXQ=w400-h366" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>Figure 2. Blood levels of Vitamin D in advance of Covid-19</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Figure 2 shows the distribution of blood levels of Vitamin D. 52.5% of those admitted to hospital had a previous blood level less than 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L. This in itself identifies a serious public health problem that was identified in new mothers in 2001 and remains twenty years later. Only 15.8% had a level greater than 40ng/ml, 100nmol/L.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Table 1 shows the relationship between the blood levels of Vitamin D in advance of Covid-19 and the severity of illness when it happened. The Table shows the numbers in each group, and also the percentages of Vitamin D status in each illness category.</span></p><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi5eNrjQEpmj90jD6NNvqnZ7kOL2i0nJHjZvfm6Bl4MjTltD0-IpWP0wjBlacOD7zAM0Tx9BzBpXRkRbpA5rhBNVGEKBh0pEqLsH08bQ5UgdAT-w9PvzuCGvUWdN8a2y1Pe_h__c1g0caEC0flAsVP0_9sr_WnUiMf5Q9qfglvNWKerbOgrghAttEnFcg=s1316" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="476" data-original-width="1316" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi5eNrjQEpmj90jD6NNvqnZ7kOL2i0nJHjZvfm6Bl4MjTltD0-IpWP0wjBlacOD7zAM0Tx9BzBpXRkRbpA5rhBNVGEKBh0pEqLsH08bQ5UgdAT-w9PvzuCGvUWdN8a2y1Pe_h__c1g0caEC0flAsVP0_9sr_WnUiMf5Q9qfglvNWKerbOgrghAttEnFcg=w640-h232" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Table 1. Relationship between severity of Covid-19 and pre-existing blood levels of Vitamin D</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Table 2 illustrates the dramatic effect of pre-existing blood levels of Vitamin D on death from Covid-19. A blood level of greater than 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L, makes death very unlikely. A blood level of less than this put an individual at considerable risk of death, an excess risk that can be eliminated by the public health action of correcting Vitamin D deficiency.</span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYnNNSJxFiMIVPk0n6tSBZEQuBf_8K4OmTxv4CWlRz1v0VgekWuNOxK2w8s2Yb9_e3Tv0KouFIbmgAZ74Lg7F7XPmC8-ifzW2BiMLXrxG-NMunRdNJa92fWSA9ad08YYrBcVONKgqtE-1yiWJ2q4xiK_21rY_U6MomvJpMAwa0CCmoGNqUkO9e8ZrBSOUz/s652/Screenshot%202023-07-12%20at%2021.33.46.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="478" data-original-width="652" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYnNNSJxFiMIVPk0n6tSBZEQuBf_8K4OmTxv4CWlRz1v0VgekWuNOxK2w8s2Yb9_e3Tv0KouFIbmgAZ74Lg7F7XPmC8-ifzW2BiMLXrxG-NMunRdNJa92fWSA9ad08YYrBcVONKgqtE-1yiWJ2q4xiK_21rY_U6MomvJpMAwa0CCmoGNqUkO9e8ZrBSOUz/s320/Screenshot%202023-07-12%20at%2021.33.46.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large; font-weight: 700;">Table 2. Deaths from Covid-19 and pre-existing blood levels of Vitamin D</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We can see in Figure 3 that most patients with mild illness have higher blood levels of Vitamin D, greater than 30ng/ml, 75nmol/L.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEib7PryGj7Acq1c8Xb6zDCk_PQDiZxktflGVl7n56M3-9dnoziTwtu8_UO_A8yESiQ-GNMVrkavWHTA_EzUmsTyd0HKZ0QU2ObFAp4-ooO9DXZ9HohXNHKkrzngZbl9nJGX8RbM3IqpDmJuYBfCq35oEBy5tGYNB4hjFl2O92Baejq_CPOD1y0Go-Q5hQ=s792" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="620" data-original-width="792" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEib7PryGj7Acq1c8Xb6zDCk_PQDiZxktflGVl7n56M3-9dnoziTwtu8_UO_A8yESiQ-GNMVrkavWHTA_EzUmsTyd0HKZ0QU2ObFAp4-ooO9DXZ9HohXNHKkrzngZbl9nJGX8RbM3IqpDmJuYBfCq35oEBy5tGYNB4hjFl2O92Baejq_CPOD1y0Go-Q5hQ=w400-h314" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 3. Blood levels of Vitamin D in patients with mild Covid-19</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">When we look at Figure 4 we find that in </span><span style="font-family: arial;">moderate illness </span><span style="font-family: arial;">the patients are predominantly those with low blood levels of Vitamin D</span></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiPbvKpNZ9yo4ZSNr32lcW_3inujNVXKWFQeD4GMuDAn_60R4CfeKj5bQRqVvuJrl9NN54rVEFDEzcHY9tx9Rw_V_ukuamVt7hZPjNuKPKu2mm9T1WtpbaxJpRNTWFUv_Q5K8EO5x60aIB-6rnweVDigxQIleitZZk4JEthS6A7u3uJYjwpVqoorEZ1HQ=s890" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="890" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiPbvKpNZ9yo4ZSNr32lcW_3inujNVXKWFQeD4GMuDAn_60R4CfeKj5bQRqVvuJrl9NN54rVEFDEzcHY9tx9Rw_V_ukuamVt7hZPjNuKPKu2mm9T1WtpbaxJpRNTWFUv_Q5K8EO5x60aIB-6rnweVDigxQIleitZZk4JEthS6A7u3uJYjwpVqoorEZ1HQ=w400-h324" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>Figure 4. Blood levels Vitamin D in patients with moderate Covid-19</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Figure 5, below, shows that severe Covid-19 occurs almost exclusively in those with low levels of Vitamin D, less than 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgdhmIgy7pdhjqc_hpwPpDevtemWy0L0lweS4em9y6K_K7Y-nhecN32cxDY9uVXVPwxgdBNQYjLYZTjZCO_glGyu3Ftjani4XaK8_xhQnS9Kp3fMGIAvIztXV3FOw2CTEYq6PLHWip5EU7Aa5aBL7No7emEu7ZEcYZCgyjXDliNlhvxsi98K83ekqbM-w=s878" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="616" data-original-width="878" height="281" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgdhmIgy7pdhjqc_hpwPpDevtemWy0L0lweS4em9y6K_K7Y-nhecN32cxDY9uVXVPwxgdBNQYjLYZTjZCO_glGyu3Ftjani4XaK8_xhQnS9Kp3fMGIAvIztXV3FOw2CTEYq6PLHWip5EU7Aa5aBL7No7emEu7ZEcYZCgyjXDliNlhvxsi98K83ekqbM-w=w400-h281" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; font-weight: bold;">Figure 5. Blood levels Vitamin D in patients with severe Covid-19</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Figure 6 shows that critical Covid-19, patients, those who would have been admitted to intensive care, were almost exclusively those with the lowest blood levels of Vitamin D. On the other hand patients with blood levels greater than 30ng/ml, 75nmol/L, did not require intensive care unit support.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEha1siq6gQ3uU9_XMj_vVcdKzKUst4fubwjMD0pUbUce1ntDFQDSXQInCIoNEU7KuhqV9nT-ag2mv5jSVascmzbJini_gS6-8dwYxRMMmtfw4L_PaLpRr2Ga4LRgrLQVF1mkT5DsBkgmHjQPKQag79BT0GzBJHGgwkanXDE7fItLcFtHByOxaJJl8MrSg=s822" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="604" data-original-width="822" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEha1siq6gQ3uU9_XMj_vVcdKzKUst4fubwjMD0pUbUce1ntDFQDSXQInCIoNEU7KuhqV9nT-ag2mv5jSVascmzbJini_gS6-8dwYxRMMmtfw4L_PaLpRr2Ga4LRgrLQVF1mkT5DsBkgmHjQPKQag79BT0GzBJHGgwkanXDE7fItLcFtHByOxaJJl8MrSg=w400-h294" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; font-weight: bold;">Figure 6. Blood levels Vitamin D in patients with critical Covid-19</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><p></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We can look at this is another way. What is the pattern of illness that occurs with Covid-19 in people with the lowest blood levels of Vitamin D, less than 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L?</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Figure 7 demonstrates that those with the lowest blood levels of Vitamin D are most likely to have severe or critical illness. </span></p><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjB_azfvZ_-IJ8CWiUcCBR7ZwKQ3FlF7xEp6QA4t6wgVAri4Xqw9_uP7U6f8lMwpJ68mbnvksi166myvASx1nRqIi9Q_HjT1_CrakwmXzsgKzMWBU2iD8lCWa7_PMwIlTh1F-EnaqSsS-aC7LGpTEVHiOekEyvVv8tSkidubEDrqMUei9HzI7jDUphmHw=s814" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="814" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjB_azfvZ_-IJ8CWiUcCBR7ZwKQ3FlF7xEp6QA4t6wgVAri4Xqw9_uP7U6f8lMwpJ68mbnvksi166myvASx1nRqIi9Q_HjT1_CrakwmXzsgKzMWBU2iD8lCWa7_PMwIlTh1F-EnaqSsS-aC7LGpTEVHiOekEyvVv8tSkidubEDrqMUei9HzI7jDUphmHw=w400-h270" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; font-weight: bold;">Figure 7. Covid-19 in patients with the lowest blood levels of Vitamin D, <20ng/ml <50nmol/L</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">When the blood level of Vitamin D is above the critical level of 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L, the threat of severe or critical illness is very much reduced, as shown in Figure 8.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEijjiQ2_0pquD9UL29yt4sUsPWbyTFBDwCH58KINYz5ij8nBLiP-B-qpnf1PWBUVYX76hWZIq8j517sQSbvU5TKGEN1N1t1gFGkBzbm4Ua6S27ze0pt6XsPcQwJx50Tr2W29dpPaDNIQODt2gYCfTlfw_lmcVsXKTQxM3-eHeriJTMmbUzEk7ETWHKseA=s884" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="570" data-original-width="884" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEijjiQ2_0pquD9UL29yt4sUsPWbyTFBDwCH58KINYz5ij8nBLiP-B-qpnf1PWBUVYX76hWZIq8j517sQSbvU5TKGEN1N1t1gFGkBzbm4Ua6S27ze0pt6XsPcQwJx50Tr2W29dpPaDNIQODt2gYCfTlfw_lmcVsXKTQxM3-eHeriJTMmbUzEk7ETWHKseA=w400-h258" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; font-weight: bold;">Figure 8. Covid-19 in patients with blood levels of Vitamin D<br /> 20–29.9ng/ml, 50–74.9nmol/L</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">When the blood level of Vitamin D is greater than 30ng/ml, 75nmol/L, Covid-19 is likely to be mild, shown in Figure 9.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgL850cE4GVnn-_-1j0yVlImwcFQSPqwdYL2NUoxmtcGdvZxkBApPiA_CNcvNqUbOVAgj8L7V-9ST-93BvE6cNwdIFZHtHn5yKyuuJhLaJS_IIRpPkXPmI9BN_vYGNsLrL5Y--w6niWjQRyy2VvQ0f-iA4pIH6UdjrbfAgY11TRjopTBVI8YrHPkI839w=s886" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="580" data-original-width="886" height="261" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgL850cE4GVnn-_-1j0yVlImwcFQSPqwdYL2NUoxmtcGdvZxkBApPiA_CNcvNqUbOVAgj8L7V-9ST-93BvE6cNwdIFZHtHn5yKyuuJhLaJS_IIRpPkXPmI9BN_vYGNsLrL5Y--w6niWjQRyy2VvQ0f-iA4pIH6UdjrbfAgY11TRjopTBVI8YrHPkI839w=w400-h261" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; font-weight: bold;">Figure 7. Covid-19 in patients with blood levels of Vitamin D<br /> 30–40ng/ml, 75–100nmol/L</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Figure 10, below, shows that when the blood level of VItamin D is greater than 40ng/ml, 100nmol/L, severe and critical Covid-19 does not occur. 12 patients out of 13 had just mild illness, and one had just moderate illness.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhV0vgg-h6MfruM-QbUiVS1y5m63QCKYcgcyLBRGkYUJeN6eOEIBQiUEklspt29CnFkXB78_MrwQBugTU1X0x6W33dpGqIZ4Qhk3IQ0PPy_RLGef8eTU31vR1pFzu2kmu3NGA55hOrkPOuWjkXmhpLWSDQTsINzF5LjRWb22OfOPsD2He7cwB0WQoxFPA=s842" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="538" data-original-width="842" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhV0vgg-h6MfruM-QbUiVS1y5m63QCKYcgcyLBRGkYUJeN6eOEIBQiUEklspt29CnFkXB78_MrwQBugTU1X0x6W33dpGqIZ4Qhk3IQ0PPy_RLGef8eTU31vR1pFzu2kmu3NGA55hOrkPOuWjkXmhpLWSDQTsINzF5LjRWb22OfOPsD2He7cwB0WQoxFPA=w400-h255" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; font-weight: bold;">Figure 7. Covid-19 in patients with the highest blood levels of Vitamin D, >40ng/ml, >100nmol/L</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Mortality</span></b></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">38 of the 253 patients died. Deaths, occurring in hospital, were almost entirely in patients with the lowest levels of Vitamin D, less than 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L. (Table 2, repeated)</span></p>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYnNNSJxFiMIVPk0n6tSBZEQuBf_8K4OmTxv4CWlRz1v0VgekWuNOxK2w8s2Yb9_e3Tv0KouFIbmgAZ74Lg7F7XPmC8-ifzW2BiMLXrxG-NMunRdNJa92fWSA9ad08YYrBcVONKgqtE-1yiWJ2q4xiK_21rY_U6MomvJpMAwa0CCmoGNqUkO9e8ZrBSOUz/s652/Screenshot%202023-07-12%20at%2021.33.46.png" imageanchor="1" style="font-family: arial; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="478" data-original-width="652" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYnNNSJxFiMIVPk0n6tSBZEQuBf_8K4OmTxv4CWlRz1v0VgekWuNOxK2w8s2Yb9_e3Tv0KouFIbmgAZ74Lg7F7XPmC8-ifzW2BiMLXrxG-NMunRdNJa92fWSA9ad08YYrBcVONKgqtE-1yiWJ2q4xiK_21rY_U6MomvJpMAwa0CCmoGNqUkO9e8ZrBSOUz/s320/Screenshot%202023-07-12%20at%2021.33.46.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large; font-weight: 700;">Table 2. Deaths from Covid-19 and pre-existing blood levels of Vitamin D</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><div>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It appears that the three patients who died with blood vitamin D levels of 30ng/ml, 75nmol/L, they did so without going to the Intensive Care units, for reasons not explained.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">For the purpose of death analysis, there are just two groups, those with vitamin D less than 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L (34 patients), and those with higher levels (4 patients).</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">If you were to develop Covid-19, what blood level of Vitamin D would you choose?</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg35s06liLmQpCnKTQ9eJfV2VLE4AzQY-K6oIudRmHrtIOprE-P1KHgP0yCxS-QC7I2cZIgcuZPu84tmTTtlpex53mkbr59yG9PpU3qXQ9GEQWBIw3tN3G3tyn_fHF9JFqPKo80_2LTYQWrVhNU0ouxvBahhvnldLaPelZ650uWM-Fi25UbkdAp7S5anA=s804" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="778" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg35s06liLmQpCnKTQ9eJfV2VLE4AzQY-K6oIudRmHrtIOprE-P1KHgP0yCxS-QC7I2cZIgcuZPu84tmTTtlpex53mkbr59yG9PpU3qXQ9GEQWBIw3tN3G3tyn_fHF9JFqPKo80_2LTYQWrVhNU0ouxvBahhvnldLaPelZ650uWM-Fi25UbkdAp7S5anA=w388-h400" width="388" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 11. Deaths from Covid-19 and pre-existing blood levels of Vitamin </span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Ethnicity</span></b></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b></b><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The study did not distinguish between orthodox and non-orthodox Jews, but we have seen that in the UK orthodox Haredi Jews have had an exceptionally high mortality rate from Covid-19. The two main ethnic groups in Israel are Jews and Arabs, but there are several minority ethnic religious groups within Arab people. For the purpose of analysis, the study divided its sample into Arab and non-Arab.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The Vitamin D status of the two groups is shown in Figure 12.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjWxAfAjjh3X7zTn2qNS0Lvbn4MVB0Xzw_Asgh6PP6MRTCbljcvkaaEUisnBhXbLzJ76f6ktAtUx1t-BA0T2srQxh9TtmqbKf_1-Ha59Y_07No-xB9v23BHzQssi5P1eV2IL6qc82Mjd13JqsM7avqy9zigI08SnEl00V4XAO7tYbvKRdJrtmJN65W09g=s1092" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1092" height="299" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjWxAfAjjh3X7zTn2qNS0Lvbn4MVB0Xzw_Asgh6PP6MRTCbljcvkaaEUisnBhXbLzJ76f6ktAtUx1t-BA0T2srQxh9TtmqbKf_1-Ha59Y_07No-xB9v23BHzQssi5P1eV2IL6qc82Mjd13JqsM7avqy9zigI08SnEl00V4XAO7tYbvKRdJrtmJN65W09g=w400-h299" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 12. Blood levels of Vitamin D in Israel</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b></b><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The frequency of very low blood levels of vitamin D less than 20ng/ml, 40nmol/L, is almost twice as high in the Arab group as in the non-Arab. The reason is not investigated directly, but is most likely to be the result of sun-avoiding behaviour, with very little exposure of the skin to the sun in Muslim people.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There is no mention of illness category or mortality related to ethnicity, but we can assume that the large proportion of Arab people with very low blood levels of Vitamin D would lead to a high incidence of serious and fatal disease. It is likely that, as in the UK, this will also be the case in the most orthodox Jews.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b></b><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Age</span></b></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b></b><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The age categories for analysis are:</span></p>
<ul>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>less than 50 years</span></li>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>50 to 65</span></li>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>65 and older</span></li>
</ul>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The relationship between age and vitamin D status is shown in Figure 13.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh8aep8g0nLtb-PSZQrPQFT7O3cUkNnTliyrc98qPHhH0L_NX13UEd-sqqQIbxUEi6J54cVyL4smLHKUOPFGOt3NWutVWTbdAN1EGVHusrfecpuKEN6tBugDEVBaMCR6KXs3wwwm01l18yxw-nsyQfQM2aqRfIQjPYY66YQf08QDQquLbkPBfmXm82auw=s976" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="760" data-original-width="976" height="311" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh8aep8g0nLtb-PSZQrPQFT7O3cUkNnTliyrc98qPHhH0L_NX13UEd-sqqQIbxUEi6J54cVyL4smLHKUOPFGOt3NWutVWTbdAN1EGVHusrfecpuKEN6tBugDEVBaMCR6KXs3wwwm01l18yxw-nsyQfQM2aqRfIQjPYY66YQf08QDQquLbkPBfmXm82auw=w400-h311" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 13. Blood levels of Vitamin D related to age</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The result is not surprising. Older people have on average lower blood levels of vitamin D. In this study, of the patients with Covid-19 aged 65 or older (grey bars), 59.4% had blood vitamin D levels less than 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L, compared to just 13.5% of those aged less that 50 years.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We have seen above that older people progressively fail to synthesise adequate amounts of 7-dehydrocholesterol, and as a result UV from the sun is unable to produce sufficient vitamin D to enable optimal immunity.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b></b><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Vitamin D levels in co-morbidities</span></b></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The 2021 study from Israel provides additional data of considerable importance, an analysis of co-morbidities.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It has been recognised in the UK and other European countries that Black African and South Asian ethnicities, and increasing age were major factors in the risk of serious, critical, and fatal Covid-19. But certain pre-existing illnesses, co-morbidities, were also recognised as increasing such risk. These are not surprising to those who are aware of clinical practice. The co-morbidities recognised in the study from Israel are as follows:</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<ul>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease</span></li>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>CHD, coronary heart disease</span></li>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>CKD, chronic kidney disease</span></li>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>Diabetes</span></li>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>Hypertension</span></li>
<li style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"></span>Obesity, BMI >30</span></li>
</ul>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The relationship of these to blood levels of Vitamin D are shown in Table 3.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b></b><br /></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhQ7CGQ-V7wEyu2hcV7FicsTc6MnDjQqakaPrxNkVZ9viXsF9koay0q6e70Sn_13q5rnGoDrvj9vMuMX5OsOinMrGBAxSYxK4Sq2Jh1Ze7jTqH4DXGnygK_6RZfVpOgnPqKJqQdIddGky0czCAHKwul5jDRluxmuMhU2RdvnYfpSj3Cjfl7dYXIr9ptAw=s1254" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="672" data-original-width="1254" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhQ7CGQ-V7wEyu2hcV7FicsTc6MnDjQqakaPrxNkVZ9viXsF9koay0q6e70Sn_13q5rnGoDrvj9vMuMX5OsOinMrGBAxSYxK4Sq2Jh1Ze7jTqH4DXGnygK_6RZfVpOgnPqKJqQdIddGky0czCAHKwul5jDRluxmuMhU2RdvnYfpSj3Cjfl7dYXIr9ptAw=w640-h342" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Table 3. Covid-19, co-morbidities, and pre-existing blood levels of Vitamin D </span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Absolute numbers in each group are shown in Table 3, and it is obvious that all these co-morbidities are strongly associated with the lowest blood levels of vitamin D, less than 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A study performed in the UK in early 2021 demonstrated the same thing and <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/02/covid-19-vitamin-d-disappearance-of.html">I have reviewed it previously</a>. It demonstrated very similar findings to this table, but the findings were interpreted in an absurd way. If there was a high Covid-19 death rate from CHD, age, or ethnicity, then these were the stated reasons and Vitamin D deficiency was regarded as incidental. In other words the interpretation was that there was no evidence that Vitamin D deficiency was of any importance. The vitamin D deficiency of ethnic minorities was left untreated, with countless deaths resulting. The paper completely failed to follow the scientific process of finding the common factor (in this case Vitamin D), a vital step in understanding as described by William of Ockham. </span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The conclusion of this well-publicised but extremely poor UK study was ultimately withdrawn, but this was not reported in the national press. </span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b></b><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Conclusions</span></b></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The Israel study accepts that the totality of the data indicate a pivotal role of pre-existing blood levels of Vitamin D in predicting the outcome of Covid-19.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b></b><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The conclusions and implications of the two studies from Israel are perfectly clear and irrefutable. The blood level of Vitamin D is the major determinant of outcome from symptomatic Covid-19. The target blood level must be 40ng/ml, 100nmol/L, so as to optimise immunity against severe and critical Covid-19. Had this approach been instituted as a public health initiative at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, there would have been many fewer deaths and very much reduced pressure on hospitals and intensive care units.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Blood level of Vitamin D less than 20ng/ml, 40nmol/L, should be regarded as critically low and requiring immediate correction. Testing the population for blood level of Vitamin D must become a public health policy. This is easily affordable.</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">More work is required to establish the dose of Vitamin D that is required to correct inadequate blood levels. The 2001 study from Israel indicated clearly that 400units per day given during pregnancy was hopelessly inadequate and did not eliminate serious Vitamin D deficiency. This is the dose that UK heath agencies advise, but they state that the more realistic dose of 4,000 units per day is safe. This is the dose that is regarded as appropriate by most medical scientists who study Vitamin D. </span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I have indicated previously that by definition and before the days of physical measurement, <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/10/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-lessons-from-mice.html">one unit of Vitamin D was defined as the daily requirement of a 10 gram immature mouse</a>. We can scale up from that so that the daily requirement of a 60kg human would be 6,000 units, and for a 120kg obese human 12,000 units each day. To be cautious, perhaps half of these doses would be a reasonable starting point for determining the dose that would be appropriate in achieving the blood levels of 40ng/ml, 100nmol/L. This must be the target level, as</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> the study from Israel indicates.</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg5Vo2aQsGhx5wyfFgDczzhKXmYsdoI19cF5PWWAj3fh7Az0BrSurYxHj1Hp-FwMsFCh6BWhjKcj6dQHnVq8StF4YJHXC9subOH67xfx3uzjyDquE19Gf7yJkiZ3tpaG8mldekpioH6ybc6mYoHrlVlTAeAADOGYN6m7GLweOq-ms2lTUtDlZKmeBKrQA=s708" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="496" data-original-width="708" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg5Vo2aQsGhx5wyfFgDczzhKXmYsdoI19cF5PWWAj3fh7Az0BrSurYxHj1Hp-FwMsFCh6BWhjKcj6dQHnVq8StF4YJHXC9subOH67xfx3uzjyDquE19Gf7yJkiZ3tpaG8mldekpioH6ybc6mYoHrlVlTAeAADOGYN6m7GLweOq-ms2lTUtDlZKmeBKrQA=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The important thing is that rather than just giving Vitamin D supplement, the achievement of target blood levels must be recorded. It is standard practice in the treatment of anaemia and diabetes, and similarly blood pressure in hypertension. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">This must be a public health priority.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /></div>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com31tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-88121458966427090332021-11-10T12:05:00.007-08:002021-12-18T10:37:10.103-08:00Covid-19 & Vitamin D: Vaccinations need Vitamin D<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><b>It is not vaccines <i>or</i> vitamin D, </b></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><b>it must be vaccines <i>and</i> vitamin D</b></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHnzVYneDm1zuOca7aQ4B02jBmvb3opxLAMSGoOx71Rx2tQ_JSWZ2WugTHZO-GA7uD2ZPqpJ6BXowD4uQlCiHUAvid_QC8ME-M4h_uqA8PAGG7vkeNubmtAu8PJcRzwtdYTf3sH68bLntE/s726/IMG_3192.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="318" data-original-width="726" height="140" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHnzVYneDm1zuOca7aQ4B02jBmvb3opxLAMSGoOx71Rx2tQ_JSWZ2WugTHZO-GA7uD2ZPqpJ6BXowD4uQlCiHUAvid_QC8ME-M4h_uqA8PAGG7vkeNubmtAu8PJcRzwtdYTf3sH68bLntE/s320/IMG_3192.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/10/covid-19-vitamin-d-2020-2021-nature-and.html">My most recent Blog post</a> described the numbers of cases and deaths in a number of countries during the Covid-19 pandemic, and the disturbing fact that there have been many more Covid-19 cases and deaths during 2021 than during 2020. What has gone wrong? Why has the extensive vaccination process not reduced the numbers? </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The numbers of cases in most European nations are increasing, with problems illustrated by newspaper headlines.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6nKiV20eGNVZx7Q6L7rlwkL0sI2llCRY8Jts-fbvblgf0y9ne5lPTwm-5DcCHUVmwGHif2FIuGlzVTFPrQvr7njb6P1sICks8IxHtPCgS0juw2PrSmgIzK_h1ROtevkzRTUGlPbzxyp6H/s764/IMG_3222.jpeg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="334" data-original-width="764" height="111" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6nKiV20eGNVZx7Q6L7rlwkL0sI2llCRY8Jts-fbvblgf0y9ne5lPTwm-5DcCHUVmwGHif2FIuGlzVTFPrQvr7njb6P1sICks8IxHtPCgS0juw2PrSmgIzK_h1ROtevkzRTUGlPbzxyp6H/w253-h111/IMG_3222.jpeg" width="253" /></a></div><div style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: right;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6dPCvqGgAusVQCXOwaCpwRb945nzsTOxWiWjVEpcnIhzYGQukFKdfNHd7dooeAAq6WNzV5_BpO3u18EWimOJufadPiNO83-KxMaq1cusyOO-gfV4PJ6bgBrJkBTi0O8_3EHKMlr5vvP54/s668/IMG_3221.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6dPCvqGgAusVQCXOwaCpwRb945nzsTOxWiWjVEpcnIhzYGQukFKdfNHd7dooeAAq6WNzV5_BpO3u18EWimOJufadPiNO83-KxMaq1cusyOO-gfV4PJ6bgBrJkBTi0O8_3EHKMlr5vvP54/s668/IMG_3221.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="222" data-original-width="668" height="106" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6dPCvqGgAusVQCXOwaCpwRb945nzsTOxWiWjVEpcnIhzYGQukFKdfNHd7dooeAAq6WNzV5_BpO3u18EWimOJufadPiNO83-KxMaq1cusyOO-gfV4PJ6bgBrJkBTi0O8_3EHKMlr5vvP54/s320/IMG_3221.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div></div><br /><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The increase of cases is disturbing in Germany, but much worse in Austria.</span><p></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF41mzss8teJBGANgnygxwLwYedAHlOx1F-_o4qiyjitkbXzt2Aa3LRq8F8OVahYzbgqUePsvNqXHO49TcUmuDwtxXUA5jkdmeyku4k9q5rUmSsOphFcFgp4F4CeYl1n244bpuo_zHt_me/s1658/Screenshot+2021-11-11+at+09.01.44.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1658" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF41mzss8teJBGANgnygxwLwYedAHlOx1F-_o4qiyjitkbXzt2Aa3LRq8F8OVahYzbgqUePsvNqXHO49TcUmuDwtxXUA5jkdmeyku4k9q5rUmSsOphFcFgp4F4CeYl1n244bpuo_zHt_me/w640-h322/Screenshot+2021-11-11+at+09.01.44.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">2021. Covid-19 cases per day in Germany</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEa-ScgMocrcsQ-nyJQ6N0AqtejgyCYLc5wTP6HW0fnnKy-o-vis8nxbBmueqf-AvA22Qk_XHRrRRV8rG9nvMIzEV8h0XVZkG-HpZW-lCGQVKUFCwoRAJgD42zVuBS05B4ATlHYON85MVf/s1726/Screenshot+2021-11-11+at+09.00.42.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="694" data-original-width="1726" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEa-ScgMocrcsQ-nyJQ6N0AqtejgyCYLc5wTP6HW0fnnKy-o-vis8nxbBmueqf-AvA22Qk_XHRrRRV8rG9nvMIzEV8h0XVZkG-HpZW-lCGQVKUFCwoRAJgD42zVuBS05B4ATlHYON85MVf/w640-h258/Screenshot+2021-11-11+at+09.00.42.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">2021. Covid-19 cases per day in </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Austria</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Why is this happening? </span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There was until very recently something called 'full vaccination', but this is a term that is now obsolete. It meant two vaccinations, but now a so-called 'booster' dose is essential. However the second vaccination is proving to be effective for a shorter time than following the first vaccination. The six month gap before the 'booster' is being shortened. It is possible that vaccinations will be given at as little as three or four month intervals.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Such a vaccination policy would be a nuisance for the population and very costly for national public health authorities, but on the other hand extremely remunerative for vaccine manufacturers.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Our authorities assume the effectiveness of serial vaccinations. Safety remains uncertain but is likely to remain untested and unrecorded. But the vaccination policy will continue.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The curious of us will ask, "Why is it that vaccination becomes progressively less effective and of shorter duration? Surely we should expect increasing immunity with each vaccination, not decreasing immunity?"</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Official UK evidence</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8F7yKrIP9mwCT2TqtZddpzvlxnJHtOl-7PVDcoS51hYYS_MDETK_DdydBLEdmCkqRN9L37rlbexVTN70oe-BzoRHql81ahvaoBFYHeLnEGbyxLTHmJK1UJOXLlajGtgKMN1-SA5-eWmXD/s1042/Screenshot+2021-11-07+at+19.58.09.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="188" data-original-width="1042" height="73" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8F7yKrIP9mwCT2TqtZddpzvlxnJHtOl-7PVDcoS51hYYS_MDETK_DdydBLEdmCkqRN9L37rlbexVTN70oe-BzoRHql81ahvaoBFYHeLnEGbyxLTHmJK1UJOXLlajGtgKMN1-SA5-eWmXD/w400-h73/Screenshot+2021-11-07+at+19.58.09.png" width="400" /></a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) published its 'COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 42'. In this report we read:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>"N antibody levels appear to be lower in individuals who acquire infection following 2 doses of vaccination". </i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">'N antibodies' are antibodies to the nucleocapsid of the virus, which do not result from the vaccination, but just from Covid-19 itself. Antibodies are one component of immunity.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This statement or finding might be interpreted as suggesting that the vaccination actively damages the immune system, but this is not necessarily the case. However it is certainly of concern that people who have had two vaccinations can become ill with Covid-19 within a few weeks. Obviously something is going wrong with immunity following vaccinations against Covid-19 if they are not preventing infection. The official answer is "We need more vaccinations", but is this sensible? It would be better to understand what is happening. A general principle is that if a medical intervention does not work, then either double the dose or stop and think.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Vaccinations are given whether or not a person vaccinated has had and recovered from Covid-19. It would be interesting to know if previous infection has a negative effect on antibody response to subsequent vaccinations, but we are not informed. There is much about which we are not informed, and so some guess-work is necessary.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Vaccines</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> are designed to produce an immune response, and the inflammatory component of this response seems to be greater with the new genetic inoculations than with traditional vaccines, hence a much higher incidence of untoward inflammatory events. There is actually a very good reason why this leads to decreasing immunity.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The evolution of the immune response </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is necessary to understand the immune response that has developed during 500 million years of evolution. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Evolution is full of mysteries, but a critical stage of evolution was the appearance of an intracellular protein that became the key to immunity. This protein is what we now call VDR, which stands for Vitamin D </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Receptor. It was the evolution of VDR 500 million years ago that was probably the initiator of the Cambrian explosion of advanced life-forms. The development of immunity meant that very primitive animal life, for example plankton, could evolve into more complex forms without being at the total mercy of pre-existing bacteria and viruses. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">And so it is today. Without immunity we would not survive infancy and we would become extinct. Immunity is vital and we have seen the effects of seriously damaged immunity in the recent AIDS pandemic. We must not forget this. We must respect immunity and the need for its optimisation. We must understand it.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The evolution of VDR was critical, but VDR would have had no function had it not been for Vitamin D which had evolved a billion years earlier. </span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxCkExiMvrlnIvYb44izUHRyPqZO203gRO_jsURYq_59F9O4-q8TCGiGWrUurlpVZpz6E64d2yOOr5rVuZo9toexOMLKPe_-buatzzaiWQVEh9RIgbN-TiHqlTZi0YkUWhYoHmdqfyXKEA/s350/2.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="231" data-original-width="350" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxCkExiMvrlnIvYb44izUHRyPqZO203gRO_jsURYq_59F9O4-q8TCGiGWrUurlpVZpz6E64d2yOOr5rVuZo9toexOMLKPe_-buatzzaiWQVEh9RIgbN-TiHqlTZi0YkUWhYoHmdqfyXKEA/s320/2.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Plankton</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Plankton at the surface of the oceans were at risk of physical damage by UV from the Sun. They ultimately developed genetically programmed diurnal vertical migration, meaning that they spend the night at the surface and descend deeper in the water during the day. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">But they developed another method of protection from UV, a chemical sunscreen. Starting from the long-chain squalene, otherwise known as shark oil, they became capable of synthesising steroid compounds, a process that is blocked by statin drugs (taken only by humankind in recent years). The important sunscreen steroid became the oil 7-dehydrocholesterol, 7-DHC. This will sound familiar to readers of the Blog. UV converts 7-DHC in the skin into cholecalciferol which we know as vitamin D. Within plankton this physico-chemical process absorbs UV energy and thus protects the plankton from damage. </span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZKp1dz5Zvf46F9pHA9XqYCxPmn6GVzWAAaA89KzFR_mnhXe4zKRrd_FZUk2HmstqH3_BvwLpeiRCJTKRdL_OF8mK0lq_NP4MQCKhJX6HciD-RyHcuAKzQ1wp6aMRYroiFhioJR0P9kyhP/s586/Screenshot+2021-11-10+at+19.36.42.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="132" data-original-width="586" height="90" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZKp1dz5Zvf46F9pHA9XqYCxPmn6GVzWAAaA89KzFR_mnhXe4zKRrd_FZUk2HmstqH3_BvwLpeiRCJTKRdL_OF8mK0lq_NP4MQCKhJX6HciD-RyHcuAKzQ1wp6aMRYroiFhioJR0P9kyhP/w400-h90/Screenshot+2021-11-10+at+19.36.42.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Squalene</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p><br /></p><br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY_yZxujsIOV9NB_fNFCCiU_sTvZUAy5Cll8qeupPHuMke6F5Py2t7lgu_hsnZDf4Vb1blUiHC8Gf9zXNdedkdcM-Edr9sdCv9rgC4iBZOi_f4MJv9eZl1IRgSxucLYjXYPuYl06HzM_tP/s516/Screenshot+2021-11-10+at+19.37.34.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="336" data-original-width="516" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY_yZxujsIOV9NB_fNFCCiU_sTvZUAy5Cll8qeupPHuMke6F5Py2t7lgu_hsnZDf4Vb1blUiHC8Gf9zXNdedkdcM-Edr9sdCv9rgC4iBZOi_f4MJv9eZl1IRgSxucLYjXYPuYl06HzM_tP/w400-h260/Screenshot+2021-11-10+at+19.37.34.png" width="400" /></a><br /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">7-dehydrocholesterol, 7-DHC, indicating the bond broken by UV</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuwuGY9oMtaeEp_ZOll5CserXA4uxEA4v_ulDFhmdM1lMMhqTA0J_BkowSQWJnbAxOBYjtFtqF-4VEyl5zu09_s33_OrIkeAdwC33vWmYPb0bvID7Fq2nmxb5k5sJYUExcDxzvx_22XgzP/s500/Screenshot+2021-11-10+at+19.38.14.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="450" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuwuGY9oMtaeEp_ZOll5CserXA4uxEA4v_ulDFhmdM1lMMhqTA0J_BkowSQWJnbAxOBYjtFtqF-4VEyl5zu09_s33_OrIkeAdwC33vWmYPb0bvID7Fq2nmxb5k5sJYUExcDxzvx_22XgzP/w360-h400/Screenshot+2021-11-10+at+19.38.14.png" width="360" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Vitamin D, cholecalciferol</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">For a billion years vitamin D had no function and it was merely a waste product of the sunscreen 7-DHC. But by another accident of evolution it became critical because it was able to activate VDR into the major player in the immune process. The Cambrian explosion was initiated.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Understanding our immunity</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We know about T-cells that produce tissue immunity and B-cells that produce humoral antibody immunity, but the important process is the rapid escalation of immunity that is essential in response to infection if an optimal effect and recovery is to be achieved. This will also apply to the pseudo-infection of vaccination. The driving force is to switch on the genes that bring about multiplication of the immune cells and their effects, a genetically controlled amplification that can be 75-fold. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The genes are activated by an intracellular dimer composed of VDR and RXR, Retinoid X Receptor. However the VDR component must first be activated by 1,25(OH)D, otherwise known as calcitriol, the fully active form of vitamin D that is produced within immune cells. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Activation of the genes will switch on or increase the production of defensive proteins including antibodies that act within tissue fluids to control and eliminate infection, the purpose of immunity.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKRbHheqyBMAsNJHDOD54RoW7USj3FfS0kh9twmLJFW7nRBZT2U-G7Ps4aUnDpTIs_Sy_SWvf_3pH0Lq4nXL6uNP1s1ZSnpjixbqelGphMikPSXDwaFK7QFIlQDcy76a7NCB1N9JQtyPEa/s582/Screenshot+2021-11-10+at+09.14.31.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="278" data-original-width="582" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKRbHheqyBMAsNJHDOD54RoW7USj3FfS0kh9twmLJFW7nRBZT2U-G7Ps4aUnDpTIs_Sy_SWvf_3pH0Lq4nXL6uNP1s1ZSnpjixbqelGphMikPSXDwaFK7QFIlQDcy76a7NCB1N9JQtyPEa/w640-h306/Screenshot+2021-11-10+at+09.14.31.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">immune cells are able to increase greatly the synthesis of VDR, but before the gene-activating VDR-RXR dimer can be formed, VDR must be activated, 'unlocked', by 1,25(OH)D which cannot be synthesised <i>de novo</i>. It can only be formed by hydroxylation (addition of an -OH group) of 25(OH)D, the number indicting the point on the molecule to which the -OH group becomes attached. 25(OH)D is the form of Vitamin D that has already been </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">hydroxylated in the liver and which circulates in the blood.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Consumption of Vitamin D </span><span style="font-family: arial;">and exhaustion of reserves</span></span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Too much 1,25(OH)D produced in response to the escalation of immunity could cause subsequent problems of 'hypervitaminosis D', with an excess of calcium in the blood and in the urine. But evolution has solved this problem: the 1,25(OH)D molecule can be used only once, after which it is inactivated by conversion into 24,25(OH)D. The process of </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">escalation</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> of immunity</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> requires a large number of single-use 1,25(OH)D molecules to activate a multitude of VDR molecules. Therefore a constant supply of 1,25(OH)D is essential and so there must be in the blood a good reserve of its immediate precursor 25(OH)D, the circulating form of vitamin D that is also known as calcidiol or calcifediol. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A serious infection such as Covid-19 will consume significant amounts of 1,25(OH)D, and so we can expect to see a reduction of the blood level of 25(OH)D as a result of such an infection. As far as I am aware, such research has not been performed during the pandemic, or at least not published, despite how simple it would be. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The magnitude of the inevitable fall in blood level of Vitamin D, 25(OH)D, following vaccination has not been reported. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Perhaps it has not been investigated, but if it has been investigated by the pharmaceutical companies, the results will only be published if there is commercial benefit. Obviously, as with Covid-19, a good level of Vitamin D, 25(OH)D, in the blood (greater than 40ng/ml, 100nmol/L) would have </span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">sustained the escalation of immunity. But if before the infection or vaccination the blood level had been critically low (less than 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L), then a reduction would have reduced the level to a point that the escalation of the immune process would be halted, with a high risk of significant illness, perhaps critical or fatal.</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK3p9KS6Pu0j8fDRXnJcfwKjzh58XyrX8rAZWEOBrpzncsHlP1f0h-0_ods6_QSbgDiVCQkZGq4iqmAzZvRIVL19AXMdrdSWkXrn92kmRAYjEYKm5y4jNvP62ylQlCpVb0kZJjf8D-RDwi/s1078/Screenshot+2021-11-10+at+17.48.45.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="704" data-original-width="1078" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK3p9KS6Pu0j8fDRXnJcfwKjzh58XyrX8rAZWEOBrpzncsHlP1f0h-0_ods6_QSbgDiVCQkZGq4iqmAzZvRIVL19AXMdrdSWkXrn92kmRAYjEYKm5y4jNvP62ylQlCpVb0kZJjf8D-RDwi/w640-h418/Screenshot+2021-11-10+at+17.48.45.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure. The effect on Vitamin D of Covid-19 and Vaccinations in <br />two hypothetical patients with different pre-illness 25(OH)D levels. <br />My blood level is slightly above the green line. <br />The national average is the blue line</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The Figure illustrates what I think is happening in respect of Covid-19 and vaccinations. I am suggesting for the point of illustration that an initial episode of Covid-19 will reduce the blood level of vitamin D by 5ng/ml (12.5nmol/L), and there is some in vitro experimental evidence of this. I suggest that the vaccination has a similar impact, reducing blood levels by the same amount. </span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">If the pre-Covid-19 blood level is good at 40ng/ml, 100nmol/L, then the person illustrated by the green line will be safe. Even after Covid-19 and two vaccinations the blood level will safe at about 30ng/ml, 75nmol/L. The importance of a reserve of 25(OH)D in the blood is of obvious importance.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">However, if the </span><span style="font-family: arial;">pre-Covid-19 blood level is only 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L, the successive </span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">immunological actions will reduce the blood level of the individual illustrated by the blue line to below the very critical level of 10ng/ml, 25nmol/L. Critical or fatal illness is likely to be the result, but susceptibility to illness will extend beyond Covid-19.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The blood levels used are not arbitrary. They are very clear from a recent study from Israel that will be the subject of my text Blog post. About half of the UK population is likely to have blood level of vitmain D less than 20ng/ml, 50nmol/L.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The proposal</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">My proposal is that the decline of immunity following vaccinations is not because of a 'poisoning' of immunity, but because the reservoir of Vitamin D as 25(OH)D within the blood becomes exhausted by the immune responses to successive vaccinations.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The investigation of this would be very simple. Blood would be taken for Vitamin D measurement immediately before vaccination and one month later. The two samples would be analysed together, following the second blood test. Previous Covid-19 would need to be recorded, and of course the dose of any vitamin D supplement taken. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This simple study could be undertaken in any public health vaccination centre. Ethical approval would be needed but I can envisage no conflict with ethics and what is in the best interests of individuals and the population. My view is that it has been unethical to withhold Vitamin D during this pandemic, contrasting with</span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> the official narrative that Vitamin D is of no value in the management of Covid-19.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In some respects it is too late for serial readings with more than one vaccination. However it would be very interesting to determine blood levels of vitamin D both before and after a booster vaccination. I would predict very low Vitamin D levels.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A further study would be a randomised trial of the effect of a single large dose of Vitamin D perhaps 100,000 units, which is a months requirement, given two weeks before vaccination, giving time for it to be hydroxylated in the liver to 25(OH)D, calcifediol, the blood form and immediate precursor of 1,25(OH)D. The outcome measures would be symptoms or illness following vaccination, and also the antibody response to the vaccination.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The response</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The question is whether there is any official interest in exploring disappointments with the vaccination programme, and the fact that there have been more Covid-19 cases and deaths in 2021 compared to 2020, a feature in most if not all nations. Media </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">reports are interesting. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZjVELbHupdp3rav_FlyimdlFeIWt6LMsHIqtLfoL4lVOQmwGf6UdS7yVcB1xbHHPiBsxAspNz7RgpBJYnm6Y5DQMQOIavtjezpRgTr12R0WaaiXTBA5HQwqOByXkMTw0-L6IWyg6b-jSA/s1026/Screenshot+2021-11-10+at+17.21.17.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="148" data-original-width="1026" height="93" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZjVELbHupdp3rav_FlyimdlFeIWt6LMsHIqtLfoL4lVOQmwGf6UdS7yVcB1xbHHPiBsxAspNz7RgpBJYnm6Y5DQMQOIavtjezpRgTr12R0WaaiXTBA5HQwqOByXkMTw0-L6IWyg6b-jSA/w640-h93/Screenshot+2021-11-10+at+17.21.17.png" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><p>The increase of Covid-19 cases and deaths in 2021 suggests that the vaccines are failing, but factual reports of this are immediately dismissed as misinformation.</p></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMTL1DNLEchxPDqUgAUAgLrrNKvbBir7opaK4mXbOWZ7uW92u_vAbbJVjtMEgzQjJdZbBQyjoxg5K0tBdbB6q2IzM-qQUlrSyKiumdQg5pbmYmfBpY1HCaGOrabIHif37-y0aqWJh_v-SK/s1182/Screenshot+2021-11-10+at+17.23.05.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="332" data-original-width="1182" height="113" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMTL1DNLEchxPDqUgAUAgLrrNKvbBir7opaK4mXbOWZ7uW92u_vAbbJVjtMEgzQjJdZbBQyjoxg5K0tBdbB6q2IzM-qQUlrSyKiumdQg5pbmYmfBpY1HCaGOrabIHif37-y0aqWJh_v-SK/w400-h113/Screenshot+2021-11-10+at+17.23.05.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The problems go beyond Covid-19 in that we are now hearing reports of increasing pressures from hospital admissions in greater numbers than are seasonal, and that most are not Covid-19. If admissions due to other conditions are increasing, it is likely that we are faced with impaired immunity due to exhaustion of body stores of Vitamin D in turn resulting from the vaccination programme. This could be corrected very easily and very rapidly.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimyLsQdwOikdWJZywlrHI3WvOtPEswKE4kaovV6Xfyg2S6zX7n-Ss8wJo9jpyjdnV9G2PBGK2DbHN4anEoU77L-ShBcADPjV66XuDVTpHUkDxMYX4mvbxAo_yI0Q_ul4Qi0ACv0arpUMND/s1890/Screenshot+2021-11-08+at+22.22.40.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="422" data-original-width="1890" height="89" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimyLsQdwOikdWJZywlrHI3WvOtPEswKE4kaovV6Xfyg2S6zX7n-Ss8wJo9jpyjdnV9G2PBGK2DbHN4anEoU77L-ShBcADPjV66XuDVTpHUkDxMYX4mvbxAo_yI0Q_ul4Qi0ACv0arpUMND/w400-h89/Screenshot+2021-11-08+at+22.22.40.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We are also hearing official reports of excess deaths from cardiovascular disease in recent weeks. Why should this suddenly occur? Could this serious phenomenon be result of the vaccination programme? Is it the direct result of exhaustion of Vitamin D reserves due to the effects of the vaccination process? Could it be stopped by finding and correcting VItamin D deficiency? The challenge is urgent and the problem must not be witheld from the population.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRrL7K9IJ1FzXyWO-tcDMgrLpn6c3eQ1gZQRAcbJJi3EJfWIvsolTMjGMx7wC5SYDKkiWF_Uc3iG3apxe-hVfteEF8KaZKDUEHCi9C8dN3OmIMpx92k1g7eqyoy5VbweYYpHfs9mKBCu-w/s1064/Screenshot+2021-10-27+at+09.14.52.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="306" data-original-width="1064" height="115" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRrL7K9IJ1FzXyWO-tcDMgrLpn6c3eQ1gZQRAcbJJi3EJfWIvsolTMjGMx7wC5SYDKkiWF_Uc3iG3apxe-hVfteEF8KaZKDUEHCi9C8dN3OmIMpx92k1g7eqyoy5VbweYYpHfs9mKBCu-w/w400-h115/Screenshot+2021-10-27+at+09.14.52.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPwKXbyYVO3GBPAiouz6-svvzfF-qb-OUZeozdaxLo9QDYriOA_3_h25-8dxoKWQQXlWvuYsGpBV4vRWWJkqFaTNZEsOEPTlWJWp31l4ScDWL4gFHgC-9w-RpsaXISQyDIayiOigFRgohw/s1082/Screenshot+2021-10-27+at+09.15.12.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="498" data-original-width="1082" height="184" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPwKXbyYVO3GBPAiouz6-svvzfF-qb-OUZeozdaxLo9QDYriOA_3_h25-8dxoKWQQXlWvuYsGpBV4vRWWJkqFaTNZEsOEPTlWJWp31l4ScDWL4gFHgC-9w-RpsaXISQyDIayiOigFRgohw/w400-h184/Screenshot+2021-10-27+at+09.15.12.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI9UheMA4BLwgQOKJb8gSeijX2ITGwnBBGyRhx_CGjOLjbHVFa7OFtI00zdkApNjt9N5Y4TT1hygGTxLK9cdw3go11vWVqyg_INvBIiDJ9KcdM5PNyde072-OvPaMpvM_qjyjQknSNlo2g/s631/IMG_3191.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="441" data-original-width="631" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI9UheMA4BLwgQOKJb8gSeijX2ITGwnBBGyRhx_CGjOLjbHVFa7OFtI00zdkApNjt9N5Y4TT1hygGTxLK9cdw3go11vWVqyg_INvBIiDJ9KcdM5PNyde072-OvPaMpvM_qjyjQknSNlo2g/w400-h280/IMG_3191.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Vitamin D in its metabolic forms has been very successfully ignored by official bodies during the pandemic of Covid-19. Evidence of benefit has been side-lined for the flimsiest of reasons and without any debate. The reason for this has been to protect the vaccine roll-out. The vaccines in use have still not been licensed and are still being used under Emergency Use Authorisation (EUA). This is dependent on there being no alternative prevention or treatment, resulting in the burial not just of Vitamin D but also ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine. </span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">At present new antiviral drugs are being tested and roll-out is anticipated in late 2021 0r early 2022. One is </span><span style="font-family: arial;">molnupiravir, produced by Merck and with anticipated </span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">price of $700 per dose, about 10,000 times the price of a capsule of vitamin D. The other is manufactured by Pfizer. As the medicines must be given early in the corse of the illness, rationing on financial grounds is going be challenging.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs8DIh6YWgEPzKZsyxnT0KGuTytcUPBpBIE7lPw-lVRuuJBMhGf8xKsPY_59qguuN_6mgNYRh1inHvrblN_f5foNauTY2ADTQscBxfyp7Ns9xN8ILbjvSgj3MFX-Gl3GzKEpUninnDgDiQ/s1520/IMG_3113.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="574" data-original-width="1520" height="121" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs8DIh6YWgEPzKZsyxnT0KGuTytcUPBpBIE7lPw-lVRuuJBMhGf8xKsPY_59qguuN_6mgNYRh1inHvrblN_f5foNauTY2ADTQscBxfyp7Ns9xN8ILbjvSgj3MFX-Gl3GzKEpUninnDgDiQ/s320/IMG_3113.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">If new anti-virals can now be used, why not Vitamin D and others? The EUAs can hardly be withdrawn at this stage as more than four billion people have now been vaccinated against Covid-19. If EUAs have become logistically irrelevant, Vitamin D can be given officially without causing the EUAs to be revoked.</span><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><b>It is time for Vitamin D to be released from its imprisonment.</b></span></p><p><br /></p>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-91990217561680042392021-10-24T14:03:00.006-07:002021-10-25T14:50:28.378-07:00Covid-19 & VItamin D. 2020 & 2021 : Nature and anti-nature<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b> </b></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghNx8AcmirMRaJdsSWmM1R8ho6B6KGuIbGUrqb9UUxYPc355O26O4oPIDLBrmQ0cSXg1QG9hOpFfFptr1txPPy_jndxhRG1pWsP02UTD_tj83rxCQcwcWidURI1tvHoDNbqO41zwkW7e_N/s550/Screenshot+2021-10-18+at+17.44.04.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="362" data-original-width="550" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghNx8AcmirMRaJdsSWmM1R8ho6B6KGuIbGUrqb9UUxYPc355O26O4oPIDLBrmQ0cSXg1QG9hOpFfFptr1txPPy_jndxhRG1pWsP02UTD_tj83rxCQcwcWidURI1tvHoDNbqO41zwkW7e_N/s320/Screenshot+2021-10-18+at+17.44.04.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;">1768: Edward Jenner and smallpox vaccination</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><span><br /></span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><span>Covid-19 & Vitamin D. 2020 & 2021 : Nature and anti-nature</span></b></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Has the 2021 vaccination programme been of any benefit?</i></b></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Covid-19 made an impact in the UK in March 2020. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">By </span><span style="font-family: arial;">March 23rd there had been a total of 258 Covid-19 deaths and so "Lockdown" became national policy, with closure of universities, schools, places of worship, places of entertainment and leisure, and also much of the economy. The impact of lockdown on the pandemic was not very obvious, and we can see its non-effect on the time-line. </span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvMBImeOcy2q60GqTdostPdpSloCXNjax1kwU8Hem5YRSjliknFODt2X7CcMsFIfVe4SGkHt2uZvIIYBYYCJ6xwqWWmjAwHfHXf2rXwu6i6Rf2Jd3p2jsfzSHIVSmGi1yrfc4DS1yvuuz-/s490/Screenshot+2021-10-13+at+21.38.55.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="490" data-original-width="282" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvMBImeOcy2q60GqTdostPdpSloCXNjax1kwU8Hem5YRSjliknFODt2X7CcMsFIfVe4SGkHt2uZvIIYBYYCJ6xwqWWmjAwHfHXf2rXwu6i6Rf2Jd3p2jsfzSHIVSmGi1yrfc4DS1yvuuz-/s320/Screenshot+2021-10-13+at+21.38.55.png" width="184" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 1. UK: Covid-19 deaths per day in early 2020</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Covid-19 deaths continued to increase and a peak was reached in mid-April 2020 with almost 1,000 deaths each day. After that there was a daily decline. This was entirely predictable as we know from experience that deaths from respiratory infections decline during the summer months. The reason for this is that starting in mid-April, the Sun rises to more than 45 degrees above the horizon, and thereby it has the intensity to produce Vitamin D from 7-dehydrocholesterol synthesised in the skin.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Many medical scientists were aware of the importance of the Sun and Vitamin D in optimising defensive immunity. The science of this had developed since about 1980 and many valuable research papers were readily available. I, and many medical scientists who were much more knowledgable on the subject than I was, tried to bring this to the attention of the government and its agencies, but our voices fell on deaf ears and the news media were not interested. The science was completely ignored in favour of dubious mathematics.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Covid-19 cases and deaths continued to fall steadily to a minimum in August 2020, when deaths each day were in single figures. At this time vitamin D stores would be maximal. The hospitals that had been struggling with the impact of Covid-19 found themselves almost empty with little work to do. This was of course a good thing, if only temporary.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrWYPP6kdOUoJGulo8e9u1Pfc12ZQboACjn901VglvrNuqybYt1iyBbddi8r3NUW4VSNIpnPCjOnQhE6cLBp98sWyESRmZo0zoKag7TGa7ZKk8a0rn0mx2aPnSyzr56Yv-pM95xLqagqVA/s870/Screenshot+2021-10-13+at+21.36.16.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="316" data-original-width="870" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrWYPP6kdOUoJGulo8e9u1Pfc12ZQboACjn901VglvrNuqybYt1iyBbddi8r3NUW4VSNIpnPCjOnQhE6cLBp98sWyESRmZo0zoKag7TGa7ZKk8a0rn0mx2aPnSyzr56Yv-pM95xLqagqVA/w640-h232/Screenshot+2021-10-13+at+21.36.16.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 2. UK: Covid-19 deaths per day during 2020</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It was anticipated that case numbers and deaths would increase after mid-September, when Vitamin D synthesis would come to an end at the UK latitude of about 53 degrees north of the equator, and when Vitamin D stores would diminish. So it did, and the numbers of Covid-19 deaths each day increased to a plateau in late November and December, about 500 each day. This cycle was under the influence of nature, to be precise, the Sun and Vitamin D. 2020 was the year of nature, and the pattern is exactly what would have been predicted on the basis of experience of previous epidemics.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I would have hoped that the favourable impact of Vitamin D production on the pandemic during the summer, would have led intelligent and knowledgeable people to develop a public health policy of adequate dose Vitamin D supplementation for the winter, knowing of the high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency. But it was not to be: vitamin D was ignored and its potential benefits were denied.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><br /></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="color: #999999;"><a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/10/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-nice-fails-us.html">The refusal of the government and its agencies to accept Vitamin D </a></span>as a prevention and treatment of Covid-19 led to the astonishing and very regrettable fact that <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-deaths-of-doctors.html">26 working doctors in the UK died from Covid-19 during March, April, and early May 2020. 25 of the 26, 96%, were of Black African or South Asian ethnicity. </a>Vitamin D deficiency was the obvious explanation. It is a disgrace that this was not acknowledged by the government and that it was ignored by medical professional bodies. But it was not ignored by my intelligent, knowledgeable, and caring medical friends, Professor Parag Singhal and Professor David Anderson. Their action was to advise by email immediate vitamin D supplement to doctors </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">of Black African or South Asian ethnicity and to provide supplements whenever necessary. The deaths came to an abrupt end but the story was not acknowledged.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">2021 the year of anti-nature</span></b></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In the UK in early 2021, rather than a continuing winter plateau of cases and deaths, January saw a sudden increase from about 500 Covid-19 deaths each day to a rapid peak reaching 1,500 Covid-19 deaths each day. This was followed by a decline during February. This was all unexpected and puzzling, especially as it followed the introduction of the new vaccines in mid-December.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6E96vpiuANjMR9WEgcFWuTaKRKtrPg7nKfGdYsK3v1cM760dFUecr6ZbZiwoRSDcWhiTp-x-HvO88edc5ZqpSqWb_YJqClKKzEUCwFxr5EhT9k1rFQEEOm4EzvAUEizuJ4TCOidpgHWNm/s892/Screenshot+2021-10-13+at+21.52.14.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="438" data-original-width="892" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6E96vpiuANjMR9WEgcFWuTaKRKtrPg7nKfGdYsK3v1cM760dFUecr6ZbZiwoRSDcWhiTp-x-HvO88edc5ZqpSqWb_YJqClKKzEUCwFxr5EhT9k1rFQEEOm4EzvAUEizuJ4TCOidpgHWNm/w640-h314/Screenshot+2021-10-13+at+21.52.14.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 3. UK: Covid-19 deaths per day in 2020 and early 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The number of <b>cases</b> per day fell rapidly from a maximum of 68,053 on January 8th 2021 to 2,235 on May 23rd. At this stage we were tentatively reassured. </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihEGzGfdmUDYn1LOORyYbRCGtujXKGrb1UbvNiMgalH1hMj__mNQnEx4j8YjZl6MiXgK-iX4vBtpNwl_5pvnvaeh66Vm1mmRjspCKHP9QJmass_Ht6gzZaMnYfysd3RhwsX7R8SZr8QvhQ/s728/Screenshot+2021-10-19+at+21.18.47.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="712" data-original-width="728" height="391" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihEGzGfdmUDYn1LOORyYbRCGtujXKGrb1UbvNiMgalH1hMj__mNQnEx4j8YjZl6MiXgK-iX4vBtpNwl_5pvnvaeh66Vm1mmRjspCKHP9QJmass_Ht6gzZaMnYfysd3RhwsX7R8SZr8QvhQ/w400-h391/Screenshot+2021-10-19+at+21.18.47.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 4. UK: Covid-19 cases per day 2021 </span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Was the pandemic was going away? But this graph shows 2021 only until mid-May. </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In July, at the height of a good summer, there was a sudden increase in Covid-19 cases. The number of new cases per day increased to an astonishing 54,674 on July 17th, then reducing but stabilising at about 40,000 per day up to the present time. This was </span><span style="font-family: arial;">completely unexpected, especially as the vaccination programme was going so well, with most of the population </span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">double-vaccinated. The policy became third vaccinations for all.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2laIfM6qFrP3So1wOEWI1BGVEcMDN7ZdB1jxyaF28l095XZOuRPTvp0U8TQZvLAw9wnZBLd-AsxlSgndemNskbrNta1TZ3X4VcltIjGNYuNzICGzFAikdfPYlJ6lOM35jbGrFwhW_0lnO/s858/Screenshot+2021-10-13+at+22.12.47.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="520" data-original-width="858" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2laIfM6qFrP3So1wOEWI1BGVEcMDN7ZdB1jxyaF28l095XZOuRPTvp0U8TQZvLAw9wnZBLd-AsxlSgndemNskbrNta1TZ3X4VcltIjGNYuNzICGzFAikdfPYlJ6lOM35jbGrFwhW_0lnO/w640-h388/Screenshot+2021-10-13+at+22.12.47.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 5. UK: Covid-19 cases per day in late 2020 and in 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This dramatic increase in cases in July (marked in the yellow box) was against the pattern of nature, and against our experience of natural vitamin D dependent immunity. The quiet summer of 2020 was not the experience of 2021. What has been happening? Is there a causal relationship between the vaccination programme of 2021 and the peak of Covid-19 cases? Are the PCR tests identifying viruses or just spike proteins from the vaccines?</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The Netherlands had the same experience, the onset slightly later than the UK, but the increase far steeper so that the peak was reached in mid-July in both countries. The rate of increase in the Netherlands was quite remarkable for a viral epidemic. A significant number of cases per day continues, with a further increase during October.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgTiM47w9kRw-HxJeoLi_yOoVjFVSwWNK72vSOkFCaujlHWJtOILKL6Zj5gXN_FiE3cp9puLvJqUnPubwvf_7FMLH2hn7o8xwI6zWtv-xvxZhHIWdW1cBPl8jPPx7tlG-jN2TgzZhS80Y-/s1892/Screenshot+2021-10-14+at+22.00.45.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1892" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgTiM47w9kRw-HxJeoLi_yOoVjFVSwWNK72vSOkFCaujlHWJtOILKL6Zj5gXN_FiE3cp9puLvJqUnPubwvf_7FMLH2hn7o8xwI6zWtv-xvxZhHIWdW1cBPl8jPPx7tlG-jN2TgzZhS80Y-/w640-h324/Screenshot+2021-10-14+at+22.00.45.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 6. Netherlands: Covid-19 new cases per day during 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This pattern in a less dramatic form is seen in most other countries in Europe – in France, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Ireland, Italy, Finland, Norway, Austria, Belgium, and others. </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Iceland has experienced the most dramatic peak of all during the summer of 2021. What was happening in this, one of the most vaccinated of countries? </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzxBcai_fgxdfLEfj3zAwprU_xXZICZO7CmjnTjQ7MpqLRNNXzZZ5hc16ZKvWXeHJgeiG6lPbLiHv8_pKrA1KB2vjjoAzBP4umlGGVMYRhHEIxrd3SAOX8x7l8_DTqIKs2-3C1CpHtzICj/s1346/Screenshot+2021-10-18+at+17.01.32.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1346" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzxBcai_fgxdfLEfj3zAwprU_xXZICZO7CmjnTjQ7MpqLRNNXzZZ5hc16ZKvWXeHJgeiG6lPbLiHv8_pKrA1KB2vjjoAzBP4umlGGVMYRhHEIxrd3SAOX8x7l8_DTqIKs2-3C1CpHtzICj/w640-h384/Screenshot+2021-10-18+at+17.01.32.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 7. Iceland: Covid-19 new cases per day during 2021<br /></span><i style="font-family: arial;">from: Our World in Data</i></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The steepness of the peak in Iceland during late July and August 2021 is perhaps more suggestive of a chemical attack on the population rather than a microbial epidemic. This extraordinary peak has not received any official comment, perhaps because it is completely out of keeping with the official narrative of the pandemic and the vaccination programme. A sudden peak in mid-summer is not we expect from a microbial epidemic or pandemic.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In late October 2021 we see the start of another peak, perhaps an early warning of a winter effect. The example in Figure 8 is Austria, which also experienced a summer increase. This late October increase is also seen in the UK, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Poland, Norway, and Finland.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRiTaLguaPdhydg9mjLc-QETNa8heldLnNQX98m1o3fepwTOfOQoZuRJtw3CoKbmKpPNRIobcm6fmTSBwo2yzdojEEX4IVkGerOiZveO7vrwdAKyz2Ad3utb7fLtcxQMyA_6RUNGyFXgUa/s1370/Austria.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="610" data-original-width="1370" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRiTaLguaPdhydg9mjLc-QETNa8heldLnNQX98m1o3fepwTOfOQoZuRJtw3CoKbmKpPNRIobcm6fmTSBwo2yzdojEEX4IVkGerOiZveO7vrwdAKyz2Ad3utb7fLtcxQMyA_6RUNGyFXgUa/w640-h284/Austria.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 8. Austria: Covid-19 new cases per day during 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Tropical countries experienced nature in 2020, vaccines in 2021</span></b></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">We saw very low levels of Covid-19 in tropical and semi-tropical countries during 2020. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">We expected 2021 to show a similar low risk, but 2021 turned out to be very different.</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Cambodia, for example</span></b></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The first case in Cambodia was in January 2020, and by the end of the year there had been just 378 cases. By March 31st 2021 there had been 2,440 cases, and by October 17th 116,860 Covid-19 cases had been recorded.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEit5UF9wFHZmoO9X4RY953fPItCftG0D-1j8CIhyphenhyphenCxhKwrBuWobnPUDBFw1Ep2DM3zV9yNBR3_L5bBlEodVt6j4vh2pntfg2tMcnfXKiXwO90AcALo2b6EGsiXoDYc7yg5qwzSE-7TdHmjg/s1346/Screenshot+2021-10-18+at+17.27.39.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1346" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEit5UF9wFHZmoO9X4RY953fPItCftG0D-1j8CIhyphenhyphenCxhKwrBuWobnPUDBFw1Ep2DM3zV9yNBR3_L5bBlEodVt6j4vh2pntfg2tMcnfXKiXwO90AcALo2b6EGsiXoDYc7yg5qwzSE-7TdHmjg/w640-h384/Screenshot+2021-10-18+at+17.27.39.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 9. Camdodia: Covid-19 new cases per day during 2020 and 2021<br /><i>from: Our World in Data</i></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There were no Covid-19 deaths in Cambodia during 2020. The first Covid-19 death was on March 11th 2021. Then there was a rapid increase in deaths, and by October 17th 2,670 Covid-19 deaths had been recorded. Why was 2021 so different from and so very much worse than 2020?</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXtWdHpPry496f7_bNfgqKHVrFAPtpwfLJZrOAddQEzJrZNVDwXsifPImmhJ7JvQbMaQihD0uOg2N1k3XOdAupqU9L4ZOmV_M440KdXMXEALvhi9FdazaH4IcdKQbS-C1WWp1IqJupl7OI/s1322/Screenshot+2021-10-18+at+17.28.21.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="764" data-original-width="1322" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXtWdHpPry496f7_bNfgqKHVrFAPtpwfLJZrOAddQEzJrZNVDwXsifPImmhJ7JvQbMaQihD0uOg2N1k3XOdAupqU9L4ZOmV_M440KdXMXEALvhi9FdazaH4IcdKQbS-C1WWp1IqJupl7OI/w640-h370/Screenshot+2021-10-18+at+17.28.21.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 10. Camdodia: Covid-19 deaths per day during 2020 and 2021</span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><i style="font-family: arial;">from: Our World in Data</i></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Was it just a coincidence that the vaccination programme in Cambodia started on February 10th 2021, immediately before the first death and the rapid increase in cases and deaths? The pattern was the same in the neighbouring countries of Laos and Vietnam, and also in the larger countries of Malaysia and Indonesia.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">2020 and 2021</span></b></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">2020, as we have seen, was the year of nature, with no pre-hospital Covid-19 interventions other than lockdown and population control. The pandemic progressed in an anticipated way, with optimism that through subclinical infection during the summer months, nature would extend natural immunity against Covid-19, and that the pandemic would have a much reduced impact during 2021.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Since the time of Edward Jenner who introduced vaccination against smallpox, vaccines have been based on nature. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">An attenuated or a dead micro-organism (or part of it) would be injected into the body to produce a mild pseudo-infection so that immunity would be achieved. This natural approach has worked well for many years. </span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But in 2021 we have experienced the new so-called vaccines, which are in truth experimental gene therapies, the brilliant products of the biotechnology laboratories. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">These “vaccines” had not been licensed and were used under Emergency Use Authorisation. But this did not inhibit the evangelism of governments and the enthusiasm of the people.</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We expected that the vaccines would add to the immunity provided by nature, and that the pandemic would effectively disappear during 2021. But it has not worked out as planned. We have had more Covid-19 cases and deaths in 2021 than in 2020. In the UK we had approximately 2.5 million Covid-19 cases in 2020, but so far this year we have had more than 5.5 million cases. </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In the UK during the summer of 2021 we have experienced between 30 and 50 times more cases of Covid-19 per day (green line) compared to 2020 (blue line). We expect an increase during the autumn, but we expected fewer rather than more cases in 2021 than in 2020.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHOqi1hsmbwJtrZVS4aH5Km1_ArHmpnxVtMcTSTQS0-fGdYUU66XqMa0jBspOfgfqA53swBH8ujxdmhyCp0K-rwg5xsaZdpGs3n69CuWZXQ1y5Y-sVb_vxuSBDYbUzvEdatZQffJtvZ6Cx/s1222/Screenshot+2021-10-18+at+17.51.04.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="1222" height="302" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHOqi1hsmbwJtrZVS4aH5Km1_ArHmpnxVtMcTSTQS0-fGdYUU66XqMa0jBspOfgfqA53swBH8ujxdmhyCp0K-rwg5xsaZdpGs3n69CuWZXQ1y5Y-sVb_vxuSBDYbUzvEdatZQffJtvZ6Cx/w640-h302/Screenshot+2021-10-18+at+17.51.04.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 11. UK: Covid-19 new cases per day during 2020 and 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Please note that the case numbers in July 2021 were 30 times greater than just two months earlier, in May 2021. This is very mysterious, but as usual, the victims are blamed for their alleged misbehaviour. But is there a biological explanation for this great increase during the summer months?</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN3cTDEMP6qNnlBuQ62Hi5xqxYP_2uDc-pSqRmPyF-7Hy1gbXJx14v45lLFA4L1cX8it8usLBPErxKMpuXbgC4rODoy0BNp4_5xAOfJLLW9ySAW1LZboDbKBgLRGgDsx8MnKS_RFXA8szt/s1264/Screenshot+2021-10-18+at+17.51.36.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="614" data-original-width="1264" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN3cTDEMP6qNnlBuQ62Hi5xqxYP_2uDc-pSqRmPyF-7Hy1gbXJx14v45lLFA4L1cX8it8usLBPErxKMpuXbgC4rODoy0BNp4_5xAOfJLLW9ySAW1LZboDbKBgLRGgDsx8MnKS_RFXA8szt/w640-h310/Screenshot+2021-10-18+at+17.51.36.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 12. UK: Covid-19 deaths per day during 2020 (blue) and 2021 (green)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We have seen the high numbers of deaths during the first three months of the pandemic in 2020, deaths mainly of the vulnerable including the very elderly, the very obese, and UK residents of Black African and South Asian ethnicity. But the daily deaths came down to single figures during August 2020.</span><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 12 shows that in the UK Covid-19 deaths </span><span><b style="font-family: arial;">decreased</b><span style="font-family: arial;"> substa</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">ntially</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> during July and August <b>2020</b>, the year of nature</span><span style="font-family: arial;">, as shown by the blue line. In <b>2021</b></span><span style="font-family: arial;">, as shown by the green line, the numbers of deaths each day were initially low but then they <b>increased</b></span><span style="font-family: arial;">. </span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">On September 9th 2020 there were 3 Covid-19 deaths in the UK. On the same day in 2021 there were 185 Covid-19 deaths. </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Between July 1st and October 10th, there were 2,009 Covid-19 deaths in 2020, but 6,370 in 2021. This is both astonishing and disturbing. What is happening?</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Why should 2021 have been so much worse than 2020? We expected that nature would bring about minimal Covid-19 cases and deaths during the summer of 2021, and that the numbers would have been even lower than in 2020 with the additional benefit of the vaccination programme. But we saw a massive increase in the number of cases and an increase in deaths. </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Something has gone seriously wrong.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Although extensive data are available from <i>Worldometer</i> and <i>Our World in Data</i> we do not question what we are doing. There is no open debate in the national press or broadcast media. We hear little from government agencies. We see no debate in medical journals and we hear no debate from medical organisations, for example the Royal College of Physicians of London. Although it has led medical knowledge and progress during the past 500 years, it has unquestioningly followed the government narrative during the pandemic. </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">If the major difference between 2020 and 2021 is extensive vaccination. Can we really see any evidence of a favourable impact of the vaccination programme on the course of the pandemic? Is it conceivable that the vaccination programme has been detrimental?</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>UK Health Security Agency – an important clue</b></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The UKHSA, in its <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf">Covid-19 Vaccine Surveillance Report Week 42</a>, drew attention to an unexpected, and as yet unpublicised observation. It reported increases in Covid-19 case reports across all age-groups and regions of the UK. But the important observation was on page 23: </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: ArialMT; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: ArialMT;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i>(ii) waning of the N antibody response over time and </i></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="font-family: ArialMT;">(iii) recent observations from UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) surveillance data that N antibody levels appear to be lower in individuals who acquire infection following 2 doses of vaccination.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></i></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">"N antibody" is antibody to </span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">nucleocapsid.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>This official observation indicates that in double vaccinated individuals, the immunity antibody response is impaired.</b> This would explain why the number of cases of Covid-19 has been increasing during the summer of 2021, and why Covid-19 cases and deaths are occuring in the double-vaccinated. The effect of a third vaccination remains to be seen.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>What next?</b></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">During the week ending October 24th 2021, the UK has experienced 328,287 new cases of Covid-19, and 948 Covid-19 deaths. This is with 80% of the population older than 15 years being "fully" vaccinated. We need something more, and vitamin D is glaringly obvious but still denied. </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The term "fully vaccinated" is becoming obsolete: there is no such thing. With declining immunity following double vaccination, and uncertainty after a third, it looks as though vaccinations will continue perhaps indefinitely, at shorter and shorter intervals.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">WHO policy in 2020 and 2021 has been “2 Vs”: Vaccination and Ventilation, nothing in between. More and more vaccinations are being performed. People who test positive for Covid-19 receive no treatment until they arrive in hospital and on the ICU.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">What will 2022 bring? We obviously need something else for prevention and treatment. Will the denial of Vitamin D continue? If so, why?</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Pharmaceutical companies are busy producing new treatments for Covid-19, but the very successful clinical trials of <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/09/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-randomised.html">Calcifediol </a>and <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/09/covid-19-vitamin-d-rct-of-calcitriol.html">Calcitriol</a> (the activated forms of Vitamin D) remain ignored. Despite effectiveness, safety and cheapness, all forms of Vitamin D remain unused within official public health measures and within our hospitals. We have experienced more than 139,000 Covid-19 deaths in the UK, and the denial of Vitamin D is more than regrettable.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Covid-19 cases and deaths are increasing as we enter our winter, the Vitamin D deficiency season. Are we going to correct widespread VItamin D deficiency?</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Should those receiving their third vaccination be given a vitamin D bolus dose in advance to minimise suppression of immune response?</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com35tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-32013807411042348522021-09-17T12:33:00.006-07:002021-09-25T00:49:04.845-07:00Covid-19 & Vitamin D: Success of Calcitriol in New York study<p><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">New York: the successful RCT of Calcitriol, </span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>activated Vitamin D</b></span></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXGnvSnXIqJ3T3axQs1UpvOzqcJUfd0PEHn2BxtHjRG2d2Q2p_GYS-iJZ9jKTITt-zU5V2qbSupDAt-2GAROzKd5bMtcM-1xCdlugXAh60rlC7ACLynC3SSzV6904NET_WJQAiQAW-joRl/s259/Unknown-1.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="194" data-original-width="259" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXGnvSnXIqJ3T3axQs1UpvOzqcJUfd0PEHn2BxtHjRG2d2Q2p_GYS-iJZ9jKTITt-zU5V2qbSupDAt-2GAROzKd5bMtcM-1xCdlugXAh60rlC7ACLynC3SSzV6904NET_WJQAiQAW-joRl/w400-h300/Unknown-1.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">To understand the basis of this important paper (details below), it is necessary to have some understanding of Vitamin D metabolism and activation. A recap:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Vitamin D (cholecalciferol) is produced only by the action of UV from the sun on the oil 7-dehydrocholesterol (7-DHC), which is synthesised in our skin and that of many other mammals. It is also synthesised in plankton in the sea, the food of fish. Vitamin D is thus produced directly in our skin (about 80%) or it is taken in our food (about 20%), mainly oily fish.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Whether produced in our skin or consumed in our food, Vitamin D is taken in the blood-stream to the liver. It is there stored while it is slowly converted into its part-activated form 25(OH)D, otherwise known as Calcifediol. If Vitamin D is taken by mouth by someone deficient, it takes up to two weeks before it achieves blood levels that are appropriate for optimal defensive immunity (greater than 30ng/ml, 75nmol/L). This is too slow for correction of vitamin D deficiency at the time of critical Covid-19 infection, and giving Vitamin D itself to the critically ill has been predictably without benefit.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It would always be sensible to correct Vitamin D deficiency </span><span style="font-family: arial;">in advance of possible infection </span><span style="font-family: arial;">so as to optimise defensive immunity. It is much more urgent to optimise defensive immunity in someone already very ill with Covid-19, whether vaccinated or not. An imaginative approach was pioneered in Spain, in <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/09/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-randomised.html">Córdoba</a> and <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/02/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-success-of.html">Barcelona</a>, by treating patients admitted to hospital on account of serious Covid-19 with the activated form Calcifediol. The results have shown spectacular benefit. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/06/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-politics-and.html">For reasons explained previously</a>, these results have been ignored and <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/02/covid-19-vitamin-d-after-barcelona-more.html">the papers have been rubbished</a> by individuals who should have know better. The UK National Institute for Health and Care Effectiveness<a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/10/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-nice-fails-us.html"> (NICE) advised that doctors should not use Calcifediol</a>. This would inevitable have contributed to the 133,000 Covid-19 deaths in the UK, and many more thousands in other countries.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A huge amount of Calcifediol is produced each year, mainly in China, but a problem has been that the great majority is destined for cattle. We accept without question the common occurence vitamin D deficiency in human beings, even at times of crisis, but it is not acceptable in cattle. <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/12/covid-19-vitamin-d-calcifediol-has-96.html">Calcifediol</a> is readily available across the counters of pharmacies in Spain and Italy, but not in other countries. Approval for human use in Covid-19 would have been a simple process but it did not happen.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Calcifediol circulates in the blood as a reservoir, ready for instant use when required. Natural vitamin D has one -OH group. The part-activation to Calcifediol requires a second -OH groups, hence -<b>di</b>ol. When Calcifediol is required, is is taken up into target cells (including cells of immunity) and a third -OH group is added, and thereby it is converted into the fully-active form Calcitriol. When Calcitriol, 1,25(OH)D, has been used, and it can only be used once, it is inactivated by the addition of another -OH group to form 24,25(OH)D.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Most Calcitriol is created and used within cells, but there is a biological need for a tiny amount of Calcirtriol to circulate in the blood. This is created in cells of the kidneys and its purpose is calcium homeostasis, to maintain a steady blood level of ionised calcium. Clinical problems arise in advanced kidney disease, when there are insufficient specialised kidney cells to produce adequate Calcitriol, and this has been recognised for more than forty years. Calcitriol </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">as a pharmaceutical product </span><span style="font-family: arial;">is now readily available for human use, and there is considerable experience of its use.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Because vitamin D is activated too slowly for use in those very ill with Covid-19, and because the proven Calcifediol is not available for human use in most countries (Spain, Italy and I think now Australia excepted), it has been suggested that the readily-available and immediately-active <b>Calcitriol </b>be of clinical value. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It has now been tested as a pharmaceutical agent in severe Covid-19 infection and the result is available.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The RCT of Calcitriol</span></b></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34508882/"><span style="font-size: large;">https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34508882/</span></a></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Bone<span style="color: #494e58;"> </span><span style="color: #0b5bae;"> </span>2021 Sep 8;116175. doi: 10.1016/j.bone.2021.116175. Online ahead of print.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #191919; font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Elamir YM et al.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #191919; font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #191919; font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Mount Sinai Beth Israel, Mount Sinai Morningside, Mount Sinai West Hospitals, New York.</span></p><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The clinical trial has been undertaken in New York and it was published on-line </span><span style="font-family: arial;">September 8th 2021 </span><span style="font-family: arial;">as a pre-print.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is a study of 50 patients admitted to three hospitals on account of Covid-19 pneumonia. 25 of the 50 were randomly allocated (electronically) to receive Calcitriol in a dose of 0.5 micrograms daily for 14 days, or until discharge from hospital if earlier.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Please note that 0.5 microgram is a very tiny amount and it must not be confused with milligrams, and so it is better to avoid abbreviations. 0.5 microgram is 500 nanograms.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The success of randomisation is given in the text of the paper, comparing baseline characteristics in the two groups. Randomisation was not absolutely perfect, and for example the average age of the control group was 64 years compared to 69 in the Calcitriol group. On the other hand 19 of the control group were over the age of 65 compared to 14 in the Calcitriol group. There are no differences between the treatments and control groups that would be expected to have a significant influence on the outcome of the </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">trial should there be major outcome differences, and that was the case.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The outcome measures are as follows:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Increase of oxygen concentration in the blood:</b></span></p><p><span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(46, 46, 46); color: #2e2e2e;">The unit of measurement is ratio of peripheral arterial oxygen saturation to the inspired fraction of oxygen (SpO2/FIO2), the greater the better.</span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Control group 31.2 </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Calcitriol group 94.0</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Discharged with no need for supplementary oxygen:</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Control group 21 / 25 </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Calcitriol group 24 / 25</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Length of stay (mean of 25 patients):</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Control group 9.24 days </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Calcitriol group 5.5 days</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Transfer to ICU:</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Control group 8 / 25 </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Calcitriol group 5 / 25 </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Need for invasive ventilation:</b></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Control group 2 / 8 </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Calcitriol group 0 / 5</span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Deaths:</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Control group 3 / 25 </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Calcitriol group 0 / 25</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Readmission within 30 days:</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Control group 4 </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Calcitriol group 2</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no ill-effects from Calcitriol and no examples of elevation of blood levels of calcium (</span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">hypercalcaemia) </span><span style="font-family: arial;">in the two groups. </span></span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><b>Conclusion</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In all measures of outcome, there was a clear advantage among the patients randomised to Calcitriol. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The most important are:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Out of 8 control patients requiring transfer to ICU, there was a reduction by 3 in the Calcitriol group. This is a 37.5% reduction and it would be great importance in reducing the pressures on ICUs.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">3 control patients died, but no patients treated with Calcitriol died. 3 out of 25 deaths were eliminated, which is 12% death rate becoming zero.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Do not consider this clinical trial in isolation</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This Calcitriol trial must not be considered on its own, and no clinical trial must be considered in isolation. The <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-demonstration-of.html">Criteria of Sir Austin Bradford Hill </a>must always be in our minds, the several dimensions of proof. Is there evidence of vitamin D deficiency leading to critical or fatal Covid-19? Yes. Have there been previous studies of association and temporality? Yes. Is there consistency in the studies? Yes. Is there evidence from basic science that Vitamin D and its activated forms Calcifediol and Calcitriol would help in defensive immunity? Yes. Is it plausible that Calcitriol would be of benefit in someone critically ill with Covid-19? Yes. Are there other clinical experiments that indicate benefit from Vitamin D in its activated forms? Yes. Add this evidence to the New York clinical trial and we can see justification for using Calcitriol in the treatment of people admitted to hospital on account of serious Covid-19.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The important "significance" is <i>clinical significance</i>, and this involves the totality of supporting evidence as outlined. The study taken in isolation might be put aside as lacking <i>statistical significance</i> as indicated by high p-values, a statistical concept that is a huge oversimplification and is a short-cut taken by people who do not bother to read the results of the study in detail. A high p-value means that the result might be a chance finding, but this chance is diminished by taking into account the totality of information, as we learn from Sir Austin Bradford Hill. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In respect of clinical significance, if we are dealing with a pandemic causing 136,000 UK deaths, if the proposed treatment is safe (the most over-riding issue), and if there is very strong supporting information, is a possibility of a chance result a reason not to give the treatment? Further surveillance will give greater information without waiting for more people to die. This is acceptance of clinical significance.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">If deaths go down from 3/25 in the control group to 0/25 in the Calcitriol group, is the pragmatism of clinical medicine to use the Calcitriol overridden by the statistical purism that the difference might be a chance finding, and that the result is meaningless? The decision to use must include other evidence concerning Vitamin D and Calcifediol.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Remember that vaccines were authorised despite no evidence of an effect on hospital admissions or deaths, and without completed safety studies. Emergency Use Aurthorisation is also a pragmatic response to s serious pandemic.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>What next?</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There is clearly an international directive that any benefits of Vitamin D (or its active metabolites) must be denied, so as to enable Emergency Use Authorisation (EUA) for the unlicensed vaccines.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">What can be done by official bodies to silence this study of Calcitriol? Some criticism will be found.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Can Calcitriol come into clinical use for patients with Covid-19 pneumonia? Yes, quite easily. It is in the power of any clinical doctor to prescribe Calcitriol in the protocol used in this trial. Will such doctors be over-ruled by hospital managers? If so what would be the logic? It would be a major interference with legitimate clinical responsibility.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Calcitriol is licensed for clinical use, but this obviously does not yet extend to serious Covid-19 infection. However off-label prescribing is acceptable. As stated by the UK General Medical Council (GMC):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>"The physician must be satisfied that there is sufficient evidence or experience of using the medicine to demonstrate safety ad efficacy. Prescribing may be necessary when no suitably licensed medicine is available to meet the patient's need (or when prescribing is part of approved research)."</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The respect paid to Hill's Criteria is obviously of great importance.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The New York RCT stated at the end, rather modestly, that further larger scale trials should follow. To state this is not the reponsibility of the researchers. Benefit has clearly been demonstrated and to this we must add the powerful scientific basis, and the results of positive trials of Calcifediol. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is perhaps logical that a second trial might be undertaken, but there are ethical constraints as we are dealing with life and death.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">If a further clinical trial of Calcitriol were to take place, it must be with informed consent of the subjects. Would such informed subjects agree to be controls and deny themselves treatment demonstarted to eliminate a 12% death rate and other disadvantages?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Would any informed person refuse treatment with Calcitriol if admitted to hospital with Covid-19 pneumonia?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It will be interesting to watch the sequence of events to silence this RCT and prevent the use of Calcitriol.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>What about Calcifediol</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The use of Calcifediol is more physiological, optimising circulating blood levels and provide a source of the precursor of Calcitriol to be produced within the immune cells. Normally we would not expect Calcitriol from the circulation to become active within immune cells where so much of it can be produced.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In practical terms it would seem to be the best plan for clinical doctors to prescribe Calcitriol 0.5 micrograms daily for 14 days in the treatment of patients with Covid-19 pneumonia, until our national leaders approve of Calcifediol to be used in appropriate dose (already worked out) in the treatment of human beings, in addition to cattle.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The pandemic continues. Covid-19 deaths continue. WHO states "population controls and vaccines", but we clearly need something in addition. The New York study provides the immediate answer.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-41006235712524698642021-09-11T13:53:00.007-07:002022-03-21T08:57:04.658-07:00Covid-19 & Vitamin D : "How do we get out of this mess?"<p><span><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><b style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue";"><span style="font-size: x-large;">"How do we get out of this mess?"</span></b></span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Scene: 10 Downing Street, Prime Minister’s office.</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">PM – UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></div><b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b><p></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Well, er, thanks you for coming in to se me today</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">PV – Sir Patrick Vallance, Chief Scientist</span></b></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b><p></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>It is always a great pleasure to see you Prime Minister.</span><span>.</span></span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">CW – Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer</span></b></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b><p></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Yes, and also a great honour.</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Well, thank you. But today we have a very serious problem. It looks as though we are in a bit of a mess.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Really, PM. I thought the vaccination programme had gone really well with most adults being vaccinated.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Well, yes. But it does not seem to be working.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;">What, Prime Minister? The vaccines are not working?</span></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">That is the view of many Members of Pariament who have been contacting me, and also some newspaper editors.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">They can’t really mean it. If this news were to be broadcast they would be no end of disruption. There would be a riot.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">They have spoken me very confidentially and no news of this sort has been issued. But they point out to me that despite all the work of our mathematician advisors, the numbers are not going down as they should and are in fact going up!</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">What do you mean Prime Minister?</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">To put it simply, they tell me that there have been more Covid-19 cases and deaths in 2021 than in 2020. They expected that the vaccination programme would have made the pandemic better, not worse. Patrick, please tell me precisely what is happening out there.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue; font-size: large;">It is all very difficult, Prime Minister.</span></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I want you to explain it to me in clear and simple terms.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Well yes, there have been more Covid-19 cases and deaths in 2021 than in 2020. The Worldometer data informs everyone that we have just passed 7 million cases. In 2020 there we had about 2.5 million cases, but this year we have had 4.5 million cases –</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">This is terrible, and it is only early September! Is it going to go away or is it going to get even worse?</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">We hope that the pandemic will come to an end, but the mathematicians think that there might be another peak.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">They always say that there is going to be another peak but I suspect that they have no real idea. They have got it so wrong previously, predicting major epidemics that did not happen. We might as well appoint a government Chief Astrologer as ask the mathematicians what will happen in the future.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>I agree, </span><span>Prime Minister.</span><span> The leaders of the medical professional organisations have no confidence in the mathematical projections and are fed up with covering up for what is going wrong.</span></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">We must give a positive impression to the public, no matter how negative the news. At a time like this we could do with Dom. He would be able to spin the bad news to make it look good, with a quick catch-phrase.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">We must continue the policy of vaccinating the entire population, with comprehensive vaccination of all young people in secondary schools, and as soon possible those in primary schools.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Well said. This will be a positive step which might keep bad news out of the headlines.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">There is a problem with vaccinating children in that doctors are very unhappy about it, especially paediatricians. They are very concerned about the known side-effect of myocraditis, heart damage, and even more about unknown side-effects in the future.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">But the paediatricians do not see the big picture, and that is our responsibility. We must stop Covid-19 now. The future is less important than the present, and the future will be somebody else’s problem, not our's. Did the clinical trials not show that the vaccines are very effective and very safe?</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Yes, but there has been a re-analysis of the data. The vaccines did show a reduction of Covid-19 cases, but when all illness were put together, the subjects vaccinated were at a slight disadvantage. It is possible that in young people disadvantages outweigh benefits to the individual.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">We must keep that quiet. I have not heard of it in the newspapers. We must emphasise benefits to the population at large rather than to an individual. It is the duty of people to be vaccinated. But my MPs are telling me that there are reports that most of the Covid-19 cases and deaths are in people who have been vaccinated.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">That is true, but only in very recent studies. If we look at the first six months of this year, we find that most cases and deaths are in the non-vaccinated. This is obvious because so few people had been vaccinated early in the year. Using the old data in the USA has enabled there to be continuing reports of a pandemic of the unvaccinated.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Yes, that is a clever spin, as during the early part of the year not many people had been vaccinated and so they inevitably made up the majority of cases and deaths. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">This is the line that we must take. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Yes, and it is going well. The press have been very helpful. I noted a headline in the Guardian on September 14th that informs its readers that only 1.2% of those dying from Covid-19 had been fully vaccinated. It was in smaller print that it was revealed that the data were from January to July when initially very few if any people had been double vaccinated, in fact virtually no-one before the end of March.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">The other point is that there was a very large number of deaths from Covid-19 in January and February, about 1,000 each day, and at that time vaccination rates were very low, with large numbers of non-vaccinated people dying. In the early summer death numbers were very few, just single figures each day in May and June, with very little influence on the six month total. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I hope we will be able to suppress the very recent data. I am told that August data will show a very different and much higher proportion of double vaccinated people dying from Covid-19.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I doubt if we will be able to keep the recent data hidden from the public for long, Prime Minister. The data are on the Worldometer and Our World in Data every day, and these websites are closely followed.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Yes, there are too many amateur epidemiologists.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Many people follow me on Twitter. On August 20th I tweeted: <i>“Four weeks working on a Covid ward makes stark the reality that the majority of our hospitalised Covid patients are unvaccinated and regret delaying. Some are very sick including young adults. Please don’t delay your vaccine”.</i></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i></i><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Very good Chris. That is excellent. I hope many people have re-tweeted it. But I hear that the majority of Covid cases and deaths are now in people double vaccinated. Perhaps your information is out of date.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Recent data is that most of those with Covid-19 are fully double-vaccinated. The numbers published by <i>Public Health England </i>are that up to August 15th, of Covid-19 hospital admissions in those over the age of 50, 31% were unvaccinated, 10% single vaccination, 58% double vaccinated.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">When it comes to deaths there is a very similar picture. Just 30% unvaccinated, 9% single vaccination, 61% double vaccination.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Gosh, that is terrible news. Are the vaccines really helping? What about those below the age of 50?</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Better news. With hospital admissions 74% unvaccinated, 15% single vaccination, 9% double vaccination. With deaths, 64% unvaccinated, 10% single and 24% double vaccinated.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">That is much better. Well we must concentrate on these numbers for the younger age groups so as to encourage more vaccinations. However, we must be aware of what I am being told about the pandemic getting completely out of hand, mainly in the far East.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">People are becoming aware about what is happening in Israel. Although it is about the first and the most vaccinated nation in the world, there is now an increasing peak of cases and deaths almost entirely among the double vaccinated. People are very alarmed. In fact during the past week the number of vaccinations per day has gone down my more than a half. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Perhaps people in Israel are starting to suspect that vaccinations are more of a problem than a help.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue";">Patrick V</span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue;">allance</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue;">But the goverment of Israel is proposing booster vaccinations as soon as possible. Also t</span><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue";">here is a major peak in Japan, even more dramatic than in Israel.</span></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I had also heard about Israel, and that the proposal is for extensive third vaccinations. I suppose the peak in Japan could be due to the Olympic Games.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Third vaccines for all would certainly be good news for the vaccine manufacturers. Even more so if vaccines had to be given every few months in the forseeable future.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">But there is concern expressed that the vaccines might doing more harm than good, and that natural immunity is better than immunity provided by vaccines. Vaccines seem to be losing their benefit much earlier than expected, and the risk of the Delta variant is much higher among those vaccinated. The evidence is that people vaccinated are several times more likely to be infected than those who have natural immunity from previous infection.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">That makes me feel good having had Covid-19. What exactly is the Delta Variant?</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>It emerged in India, immediately after the vaccination programme took off. </span><span>It is sometimes called the Vaccine Variant, but only behind closed doors.</span></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I am told that in the Observer on August 29th there was a report that Covid-19 cases in the UK are 26 times higher than a year ago. Is this true?</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I am afraid it is. We expected that with the vaccination programme cases and deaths would be even lower in 2021 than in 2020, but it is not working out that way.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I also read the Observer article. In addition it stated that hospital admissions and deaths are a fraction of what they were in August 2020.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Is this true?</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I suspect not. According to Worldometer Covid-19 deaths suddenly started to increase in mid-August and now exceed 2020 figures. For example on September 7th 2020 there were just 3 Covid-19 deaths, but on the same day this year there were 209. This is the general pattern at present.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Cripes! This is terrible. What can we do?</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">We can hope that it improves, but otherwise we must divert attention. We must continue to make vaccination for the young our main priority, and blame the unvaccinated young for the deteriorating situation.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">But what if there is a backlash against vaccinations?</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>Well </span><span>Prime Minister</span><span>, the main impact will be on the share prices of the pharmaceutical companies. Many of us have a lot to lose.</span></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">We must continue to emphasise the importance of vaccinations.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">What about the other things, vitamin D, ivermectin, hydoxychloroquine and so on?</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">We have followed your instructions and kept these out of the news and out of clinical use. I must say that the doctors have been very unhappy about this. They are aware that we have had 133,000 Covid-19 deaths and they think that most of these could have been avoided had we used vitamin D in particular from the very beginning.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Well, that is just speculation.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">The doctors have been concerned that they have been unable to offer any treatment to Covid-19 patients until they arrive on the intensive care units. If Pfizermectin materialises, that will be a help.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">As I have said I appreciate your success in keeping vitamin D in particular hidden from view, but I am very pleased to have received it myself when I was so very ill with Covid-19. We have had to follow WHO and FDA instructions that there must be no alternative to vaccines, otherwise the Emergency Use Authorisations would not have been granted.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>Whatever the benefits </span><span>Prime Minister</span><span>, if we bring Vitamin D and its activated form Calcifediol into use now, there will be public outcry from the relatives of the dead as to why we did not do so at the beginning.</span></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">It is all very difficult. We really are in a mess but at present beneath the surface. We simply must continue with vaccinations, otherwise the public will lose confidence in us.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">And if cases and deaths increase we must blame it on new variants.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">And people who have not been vaccinated.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>Prime Minister, </span><span>I am still concerned that the public might become aware of what is happening around the world. The public have been expecting that the vaccinations would make things better. What will happen if the pandemic continues to get worse?</span></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">It is inevitable that the pandemic will settle in time, and the official line is that when it does, it will be the result of the highly successful vaccination programmes.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">While we are here, what is the situation with deaths and ill-effects from the vaccines?</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chris Whitty</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">The Yellow Card system is functioning but there seems to be little notice taken and certainly no actions. We rely on the fact that in individual cases, proof is not possible and we emphasise that co-incidences do happen.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I read that the coroner concluded that the death of Lisa Shaw, the BBC presenter, was the direct result of the very recent vaccination. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I am told that the BBC will keep quiet about this unfortunate case. Let’s hope so. The last thing we want is a succession of claims of vaccine damage,</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Patrick Vallance</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Especially as the government has accepted financial liability. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Prime Minister</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>I certainly never expected the Covid-19 pandemic to turn out to be anything like as bad and complicated as it has turned out to be. And it seems to be far from over. The end of September is likely to see the mess even worse, unless the pandemic goes away. </span><span>I am sure we will be meeting again very soon.</span><span> </span></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b></b><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><i><span style="font-size: large;">Exit Patrick Vallance and CW.</span></i></b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-84546568198546652852021-08-24T10:42:00.002-07:002021-08-24T12:02:16.333-07:00Covid-19 vaccination and miscarriage - ERROR <p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8E6vIct6dRZtCsa00TuTNBYUf1QCD-3purL2LmVfCtZEqiH3yfMlp8B4k4NEzo0KjWzWb3fAZCAXtPGxSfpD9xXVw7oFvDX-kyqVv40hqFQGE4SWPNyeMIn8pOERYoHTUJFcALlkCJee7/s2048/IMG_4958.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8E6vIct6dRZtCsa00TuTNBYUf1QCD-3purL2LmVfCtZEqiH3yfMlp8B4k4NEzo0KjWzWb3fAZCAXtPGxSfpD9xXVw7oFvDX-kyqVv40hqFQGE4SWPNyeMIn8pOERYoHTUJFcALlkCJee7/w400-h300/IMG_4958.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/08/urgent-covid-19-vaccines-and.html">My recent Blog post </a>was an analysis of an important study published in the <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2104983">New England Journal of Medicine</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The conclusion in this paper was obviously wrong giving false reassurance. It describes 104 miscarriages, but in calculating the risk of miscarriage the denominator used was 827, the number of women whose pregancies had been completed. 104/827 gave a very low risk.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The mistake in the paper was that of the 827 pregnant women whose pregnancy had been completed, 700 had been vaccinated only in the third trimester, after 27 weeks. They could not have had a miscarriage as the definition in the paper was that a miscarriage is before 20 weeks. The 700 had either full-term, premature, or still-births.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">My mistake was to over-simplify in an attempt to obtain a true result from this paper. To do so I simply removed the 700 from the 827, finding the 127 who had been vaccinated early, 92 of them being peri-concepriion vaccinations. It appeared that only these 127 were at risk of miscarriage.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">104/127 = 82% miscarriage risk. <b>WRONG.</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Vaccination and pregnancy - Correction</span></b></p><p style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">After a few more reads of the paper:</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">3958 pregnant subjects enrolled in the original studies.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">The data analysis was during just 76 days, Dec 14 to Feb 28.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">This meant that during this short window, only 827 had completed pregnancy, but all the others remained pregnant. It was only the 827 completed pregnancies that were the subject of this preliminary paper.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-size: large;">At this stage, there were:</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">104 miscarriages, </span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">96 before 13 weeks</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">These can be chosen as numerators for miscarriage risk as it is the miscarriage rate that is of interest at present, and which was reported wrongly in the paper.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Let us keep to 104 miscarriages as the numerator of the miscarrige risk: 104 pregnant women had a miscarriage – fact.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">The paper used 827 as the denominator of 104/827. This is clearly the wrong way to calculate the miscarriage risk, as described above and in my initial analysis. 700 were not at risk of miscarriage because they had been vaccinated in the third trimester.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>I simply subtracted </span><span>700</span><span> from the 827 denominator, giving a risk of 104/127. </span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">This was an oversimplification.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">92 subjects received vaccination in the peri-conception days, between one month before last menstrual period and 14 days afterwards.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">This is not a possible denominator if 104 is the numerator. We must add some early first trimester vaccinations, but how many? </span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">1132 subjects were vaccinated during the first trimester, up to 13 weeks. How many miscarried? We are not told.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><b>Impossibility of a </b></span><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><b>conclusion</b></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">It is not possible to be clear about the denominator as we do not know the outcome of the 92 peri-conception vaccinations.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Nor do we know the outcome of the 1132 first trimester vaccinations, most of the women still being pregnant at the end of the short window of the study. We do not know how many of the 1132 pregnancies resulted in miscarriages overall, but 12 of them did during the window of the study (104-92).</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>The denominator could be any number from 127 to 1224 (</span><span>92+1132)</span><span>, the number at risk of miscarriage (all peri-conception + first trimester vaccinations).</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">The </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">future of this study</span></b></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Perhaps my 82% risk could be correct, but this is most unlikely. We simple do not have the data necessary to reach a robust conclusion.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">The study was “Preliminary”. More detail and more comprehensive presentation of data might be available in a later paper.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">The paper as published is not good. It appears that the main outcome measure is birth defects, hence it being an end of pregnancy study. The full-term and </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">late births revealed no major problems.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">It is not possible to reach a conclusion concerning the miscarriage rate, and it will require a longer follow up. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">As it stands the NEJM paper is rubbish. It should not have mentioned miscarriages without supportive information. I was trying to salvage a result more accurate than that in the conclusion, which was obviously wrongly based reassurance.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 17px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">At present, on the basis of data presented, we can accept that Covid-19 vaccination appears to be safe in late pregnancy, but small sample size with no controls. However vaccination is best avoided in peri-conception days.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>UK MHRA</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A few days following my previous Blog, the UK Medicine and Healthcare products Regulatory Authority issued a report that stated that vaccination during pregnancy is safe.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is not a research study but it is data based on a spontaneous and informal self-reporting system of untoward effects after taking medicine or using healthcare products, the Yellow Card system. It was a brief report with just a conclusion, no numbers of miscarriages. It does not compare with the detailed prosepctive study in the NEJM, imperfect as this is.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The MHRA report tells us that vaccination during pregnancy is safe, but it does not identify the relatively small number of women who might have been vaccinated before they realised that they were pregnant, those who had missed a period by just two weeks. It is these women with peri-conception vaccination who are at risk of embryo damage or implanation failure, and consequently miscarriage. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The report concluded that there was no excess of untoward obstertric events following vaccinations. As vaccinations have been in progress for only eight months, this "conclusion" must be regarded as premature.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><i>Ref: UK MRHA</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting">https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting</a></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>NEJM: further analysis</b></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I have just received a paper that is severely critical of the NEJM paper. I wish that I had known about this earlier.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">It will be available by email.</span></p><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><p><br /></p>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-25790676775411473052021-08-15T04:15:00.021-07:002023-03-12T01:34:23.702-08:00Urgent: Covid-19 vaccines and miscarriage risk<p></p><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Corrected on August 26th 2021</b></span><br /><br /><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsiS1mfGexQr9dotUNG4ErQ7ps57DeUKrPZMOMGbl77LGPnfYUqEESwOF5ICuuBliAubMeUKHS3aTTJyVB9QVMq3gUxaEr4Sj63irCt5lpnMnS601o6SzwFqROhStoFRmud8iTpXdjTwsi/s1646/Screenshot+2021-08-15+at+08.35.09.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="568" data-original-width="1646" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsiS1mfGexQr9dotUNG4ErQ7ps57DeUKrPZMOMGbl77LGPnfYUqEESwOF5ICuuBliAubMeUKHS3aTTJyVB9QVMq3gUxaEr4Sj63irCt5lpnMnS601o6SzwFqROhStoFRmud8iTpXdjTwsi/w640-h221/Screenshot+2021-08-15+at+08.35.09.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This was the headline of news media in the UK on the evening of Saturday August 14th. It shows that Carrie Johnson, the wife of the Prime Minister, has been seriously misinformed, and that she is not an appropriate person to be advising the public on health issues. She is not a medical scientist.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Unfortunately, she does not realise that her recent miscarriage, sad as it was, almost certainly resulted from her first vaccination, but I do not have the precise time-line. Did she complete a Yellow Card to record the time-link between her first vaccination and the miscarriage? Do any women who have miscarried do this if the miscarriage occurs within three months of peri-conception vaccination?</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Carrie Johnson is not the only person to be urging pregnant women to be vaccinated:</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrgX1RITH2MdQjFYt5-uwpF-1GvvQJC80wCnYTok1UWevoviP0xoiYH3qzRF_VVVGnS517H820c2D_nL7_Cy-A4_lroOfVhWfWTVqlHcTxGw0C_YnEu_j8M3nlI9CmWVjpevpdwouTUY4M/s1319/IMG_2966.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="598" data-original-width="1319" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrgX1RITH2MdQjFYt5-uwpF-1GvvQJC80wCnYTok1UWevoviP0xoiYH3qzRF_VVVGnS517H820c2D_nL7_Cy-A4_lroOfVhWfWTVqlHcTxGw0C_YnEu_j8M3nlI9CmWVjpevpdwouTUY4M/w400-h181/IMG_2966.jpeg" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I have indicated in a previous <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/05/covid-19-vitamin-d-dangers-in-pregnancy.html">Blog post</a> that I have been concerned about deaths from Covid-19 of pregnant women in the UK, especially as most of them are of South Asian ethnicity. Vitamin D deficiency was almost certainly the major causative factor, and certainly the only factor that could have been corrected immediately. By <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/06/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-politics-and.html">government directive</a>, vitamin D, like ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine has not been used in the UK for the sick and dying from Covid-19, a national disgrace.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Now there is the issue of whether or not pregnant women should be vaccinated against Covid-19. It is a contentious issue because we know that medicines given during pregnancy can have damaging effects. It is vital that new medicines are tested thoroughly before being given to pregnant women. Covid-19 vaccines are new medicines, and similar medicines have never been used in the past. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Human testing of a new medicine must be with careful randomised controlled trials, and these must include signed informed consent. This is particularly important in the new vaccines because they are not yet licensed: they are used under Emergency Use Authorisation, which implies that they remain experimental.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Randomised controlled trials of vaccines given in pregnancy have not been undertaken, but many pregnant women in the USA in particular have received vaccines. Did the women give signed informed consent?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The rhetoric</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(32, 33, 36); color: #202124;"><i>"Language designed to have a persuasive or impressive effect, but which is often regarded as lacking in sincerity or meaningful content."</i></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The debate continues in the UK, but debate and science are by-passed by media pressure for pregnant women to be vaccinated. Pregnant women are understandably hesitant, but rather than listening to their concerns and looking at the science, pressure is put upon them to change their minds. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span>The pressure is even coming from "England's Top Midwife": </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span class="ILfuVd" style="caret-color: rgb(32, 33, 36); color: #202124; line-height: 24px;"><span class="hgKElc" style="padding: 0px 8px 0px 0px;"><i>Jacqueline Dunkley-Bent, Chief Midwifery Officer for England, said: “Vaccines save lives, and this is another stark reminder that the Covid-19 jab can keep you, your baby and your loved ones, safe and out of hospital"</i>.</span></span><span class="kX21rb" style="color: #70757a; display: inline-block; line-height: 1.34; padding-right: 0px; white-space: nowrap;">5 Aug 2021</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Powerful rhetoric, but wrong. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Headline in the Guardian, July 30th 2021</b></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCYHA7s57LsKj25EyVj7VpV6C6z7hV_Hmw28VxlOiX3na9NCUHD_erQCW2P47RtvF8-hhCWPKfgtF0XZuU8B13PxplaUkQreATHHlOpZDmn2yShD6D13F2pPQcAyIEpZUI0JytcBf4jk-G/s1336/IMG_2967.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1336" data-original-width="1119" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCYHA7s57LsKj25EyVj7VpV6C6z7hV_Hmw28VxlOiX3na9NCUHD_erQCW2P47RtvF8-hhCWPKfgtF0XZuU8B13PxplaUkQreATHHlOpZDmn2yShD6D13F2pPQcAyIEpZUI0JytcBf4jk-G/w536-h640/IMG_2967.jpeg" width="536" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">Jacqueline Dunkley-Bent and Linda Geddes are seriously misinformed.</span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The data</b><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The data presented appear to be dramatic, in fact too dramatic:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">171 pregnant women admitted to hospital in the UK on account of Covid-19.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">168 had not been vaccinated (98%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">3 had been vaccinated (2%). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Such a huge difference is very surprising. Is vaccine hesitancy in pregnant women really so strong, 98%? If so, notice should be taken of this rather than just persuading them to change their minds. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This is of course observational data, not a randomised controlled trial. But as we have seen in respect of vitamin D studies (and cigarette smoking in the 1950s), <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-demonstration-of.html">observational data are of immense importance</a>. In human investigation, we usually need to rely on observational data.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The data have two, perhaps three theoretical explanations:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">1. Vaccination is spectacularly successful in preventing Covid-19 in pregnancy (hence only 3 vaccinated pregnant women with Covid-19 in this study of 171).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">2. Vaccination is spectacularly successful in preventing successful pregnancy (hence only 3 vaccinated pregnant women in this study of 171).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">3. A combination of 1 and 2.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We need more information, and it is readily available from observation of pregnant women vaccinated against Covid-19 in the USA. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The study in the New England Journal of Medicine.</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2104983">https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2104983</a></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In this study the manufacturers of the vaccines were either Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">From a database of 3958 participants in the "V-Safe Pregnancy Registry", the study identified 827 women, aged 16 to 54 years, who had been vaccinated between December 14th 2020 and February 28th 2021 and who had completed pregnancy. Slightly more than 60% were in the age range 25 to 34.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The overall pregnancy loss was </span><span style="font-family: arial;">115</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> (</span><span style="font-family: arial;">14%), 104 miscarriages, 1 stillbirth, 10 induced abortion or ectopic pregnancy.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">127 were vaccinated in early pregnancy, 92 of them during peri-conception, that is, shortly before pregnancy or during early pregnancy, up to </span><span style="font-family: arial;">30 days before the last menstrual period (LMP) or up to 14 days after the LMP.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">We are not given a breakdown of data on the 92 and the remainder of the 127, so they must be analysed together.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">700 received vaccine in third trimester of pregnancy, this being after 27 weeks (27/40)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">104 of the pregnant women had a miscarriage, spontaneous abortion (SA) in medical terminology.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">104 miscarriages out of 827 pregnancies = 104/827, which expressed as a percentage = 12.6%.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This formed the conclusion of the paper, reassuring women all over the world that this is an acceptable miscarriage rate, not dissimilar from "normal experience".</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>BUT THERE IS SOMETHING SERIOUSLY WRONG WITH THIS CALCULATION</b></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b> STATISTICAL SPIN</b></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>This section has been corrected</b></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We can be clear about the numerator, 104 miscarriages. This is what we are investigating.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">2/4=50%. If we want to reduce this percentage, we need to make the denominator bigger.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">2/40=5%</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">What has happened in this paper is that the denominator has been made bigger, from 127 to 827.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A few simple facts are necessary to help understanding about pregnancy, perhaps those conducting the study were ignorant of thes facts..</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">By definition, a miscarriage (SA), the end of an unviable pregnancy, must occur before about the half-way point of a normal pregnancy. In practice 23 weeks is usually chosen for definition as before 23 weeks a delivered foetus will not be viable. A miscarriage is before 23 weeks (23/40). In the study miscarriage was defined as end of pregancy before 20 weeks, but this will not make a difference to the analysis.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">If a pregnancy comes to an end after 23 weeks but before full term normal birth (40/40) it</span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> is called a premature birth, or a stillbirth if the foetus has died in utero.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The first trimester, up to 13 weeks, is the embryonic stage, and understanding this is of vital importance. The embryo develops from a single fertilsed cell which divides and differentiates into its human form. It is during this differentiation and formation that the embryo is highly vulnerable to damage with consequent abnormalities. Examples are medical teratogenicity due to thalidomide or anti-epileptics, also viral damage due to rubella. Severe damage can result in miscarriage. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">When the embryo has reached its human form, at just before 13 weeks, it becomes a foetus. The process for the remaining two-thirds of gestation is for growth and maturation rather than differentiation. Brain maturation is particularly important in the third trimester.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The NEJM paper tells us that 700 of the 827 were vaccinated only in the third trimester, 27 to 40/40. By definition this is much too late for a miscarriage. These 700 pregnant women could not have had a miscarriage, and so they cannot be included in the denominator of the calculation of miscarriage risk. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>The reality is this:</b></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">127 pregnant women received very early or peri-conception vaccination, before or very early in pregnancy.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">104 of them had a miscarriage, the great majority we are told being in the first 13 weeks, the embryonic stage. Miscarriage is embryo loss.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">But the 127 were only a subgroup of 1132 pregnant women who received the vaccination during the first trimester with the great majority remaining pregnancy at the time of the study. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>104 miscarriages out of how many? We do not know. It might have been 127 (</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">= 82% miscarriage rate)</span><span style="font-family: arial;">, but it might have been 92+1132 = 1224.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Read more of this in <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/08/covid-19-vaccination-and-miscarriage.html">the next Blog post</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>WHY DID THIS DISTORTION OF STATISTICS HAPPEN ?</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This true miscarriage rate has been hidden from the world by a paper that is so badly written that the large number of words disguises the important numbers. The conclusion is either seriously at fault or is fraudulent. How it passed peer review to be be published in the prestigious NEJM is a mystery. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It seems to me that there was a failure to understand the difference between an embryo and a foetus, and the huge difference between exposure of an embryo and exposure of a foetus to a potential poison, whether biological or chemical. It is important to note that the miscarriages occurred during the embryonic phase. Pregnancy is divided into three trimesters for a good reason, as the stages are distinct and should not be combined into one in scientific analysis.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We have much to learn from the thalidomide tragedy of the late 1950s. If the pregnant women took thalidomide (to help with sickness) in the embryonic stage, the baby was in danger of being born with brain mal-development, eyes incompletely formed, or serious limb shortening. If however thalidomide was taken after day 42 following conception there was no damage to what by then would be be the foetus. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">And so it is with vaccinations. There is serious damage or implantation failure in the embryonic stage, the first trimester, but no damage in the third trimester, during which pregnant women could perhaps be vaccinated safely. Although thalidomide appeared to be safe in the third trimester, medicines regulatory agencies banned it completely. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Few people will take the trouble to access and look at the paper, and those who do will probably read just the abstract and perhaps the conclusion. These can be effectively fiction, the conclusion that is politically convenient.</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>What do we do now?</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">As a clinical doctor I have always been cautious, well-aware of the dictum</span><i style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"> "Primum non nocere"</i><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> (first do no harm), part of the Hippocratic oath. I am only too aware that it is much easier to do medical harm to people than to do good, and so restraint and caution are very important. "Evidence-based medicine" has become a dictum in recent years, but during this pandemic control of medicine has shifted from professional to government authorities, which have shown restraint only in treatments other than vaccines, and then total restraint without science. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Vaccinations are being given on Emergency Use Authorisation and use should be scientific, based on a prospective research protocol so that we can learn. But this is not happening. The study described above was retrospective and opportunistic. It provided very useful data, and it is the best that we have. It is probably too late for prospective structured research into the effect of vaccination on the outcome of early pregnancy. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">To continue to vaccinate women in late pregnancy is reasonable, as it would have been reasonable to continue prescribe thatlidomide to women late in pregnancy. </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">We have seen clearly that the miscarriages occured early and perhaps mainly before the pregnancies would have been officially recorded. Research into the outcome of pregnancy must therefore be based on a data-set of vaccination of all women of child-bearing age, including those not yet pregnant, as </span><span style="font-family: arial;">was the study published in the NEJM. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">However this will no longer be possible prospectively as informed consent for vaccination of such women must include information that very early and peri-conception vaccination will give risk of miscarriage at present unknown, but not the risk given in the NEJM paper. Would a woman accept this risk?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p></div>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-66942998031453535812021-08-09T10:14:00.001-07:002023-02-20T05:37:56.074-08:00Covid-19 & VItamin D – something strange is happening in 2021<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNgi3N1oA_qBsy8bnHGpPCB7Qi0SuockvXkomQSsX27PzhLic7ZGdC8z1vv95qvvRFDzvZaxjSClFciCJUkHtGgIghwCtnPJw2ofPFfD27SLNMTiBuxXuiVsdD5Gu9klYJVe5AI6WRjuUi/s1024/FDB40CE5-7354-4FB9-8624-4F8C92BA4EE3_1_105_c.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNgi3N1oA_qBsy8bnHGpPCB7Qi0SuockvXkomQSsX27PzhLic7ZGdC8z1vv95qvvRFDzvZaxjSClFciCJUkHtGgIghwCtnPJw2ofPFfD27SLNMTiBuxXuiVsdD5Gu9klYJVe5AI6WRjuUi/w400-h300/FDB40CE5-7354-4FB9-8624-4F8C92BA4EE3_1_105_c.jpeg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Mid-summer sunset across the Ribble Valley</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">2020 was memorable for the Covid-19 pandemic, but the behaviour of the pandemic conformed to the pattern that we expect in the natural world. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The pandemic became significant in the UK during the month of March 2020, and on March 23rd lockdown was introduced as we had experienced 258 deaths. Despite this, cases and deaths continued to increase until mid-April 2020, when we experienced a maximum of 919 deaths in one day.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Mid-April is the time in the UK when the mid-day sun becomes more than 45 degrees above the horizon, and so vitamin D production starts. As a result, immunity becomes more effective and so there was a steady decline in Covid-19 deaths to a minimum level in August, with fewer than ten deaths per day. This is the same pattern for all respiratory infections, the non-specific beneficial effects of the summer enhancement of immunity. It is not difficult to understand.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As predicted by the natural annual cycle of respiratory infections, the incidence and deaths from </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Covid-19 </span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">increased in the early winter, when vitamin D production ceased and vitamin D reserves were reducing. A steady state was observed during November and December. This was seen in all European countries and in North America.</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbH9zm9KgvVTw5sFdH2P1GKAQfF0ENPd4y_MSyqW0N5gI-8eEJcepUPbcUyuxWIsEsrZ_aIRsD7tsal4_AlTH15NNjYLXRwS0qvPv6Er6nkUGFyHyFqEmmYgxI3txaPuMIm1ok4O6VXnZO/s1766/Screenshot+2021-01-01+at+10.11.50.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="1766" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbH9zm9KgvVTw5sFdH2P1GKAQfF0ENPd4y_MSyqW0N5gI-8eEJcepUPbcUyuxWIsEsrZ_aIRsD7tsal4_AlTH15NNjYLXRwS0qvPv6Er6nkUGFyHyFqEmmYgxI3txaPuMIm1ok4O6VXnZO/w640-h232/Screenshot+2021-01-01+at+10.11.50.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Figure 1. Covid-19 deaths in the UK during 2020</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBn_cy166u9qdRH2zspOgf4_8YRONHvpHOHvdCv6ZSrJ_s0ixqD415BpVzKSLtRldKWhhtbn9NJZDAOnuHa03wmEWgAyRFZukb9aJzhYOvkP034vav_nkx1VmUjFLjbklvN1CNx8ImDZc9/s1250/Screenshot+2020-12-27+at+12.13.52.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="728" data-original-width="1250" height="373" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBn_cy166u9qdRH2zspOgf4_8YRONHvpHOHvdCv6ZSrJ_s0ixqD415BpVzKSLtRldKWhhtbn9NJZDAOnuHa03wmEWgAyRFZukb9aJzhYOvkP034vav_nkx1VmUjFLjbklvN1CNx8ImDZc9/w640-h373/Screenshot+2020-12-27+at+12.13.52.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Figure 2. Covid-19 deaths in the Netherlands during 2020</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpoPTgDwj2QPE71i6cy3upsCMBbU4znSkCGWsqUWcZhc5q9yNzyn6aRNvYo4fErc4vAWDPVS2VuHCdHI52IAYr9nivQ0NahIXk3YnGXWlzAZDFixZI2fdRqpzTDGQN3BY8Qy_RJuqMtd5V/s1522/Screenshot+2020-12-27+at+12.13.14.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1522" height="351" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpoPTgDwj2QPE71i6cy3upsCMBbU4znSkCGWsqUWcZhc5q9yNzyn6aRNvYo4fErc4vAWDPVS2VuHCdHI52IAYr9nivQ0NahIXk3YnGXWlzAZDFixZI2fdRqpzTDGQN3BY8Qy_RJuqMtd5V/w640-h351/Screenshot+2020-12-27+at+12.13.14.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 3. Covid-19 deaths in Canada during 2020</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">However a sudden and unexpected increase in Covid-19 cases and deaths occurred in January 2021. What was even less expected and which remains unexplained is the sudden decrease in cases and deaths that followed in February. There was no obvious natural or therapeutic enhancement of immunity that could account for it. There was of course the introduction of the vaccination programme in mid-late December, but if it is viewed as causing the decline in deaths (much too rapid) it could equally be viewed as somehow causing the increase. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHRESNUQcdtDWNQ44v-FuNo4oD2KRhKshlHKE5LKvzEvQqYcEOhZtB3V237e5TZUlKcb6GsBr-hUsrHa7WCcARbyH9Wx63pH5a6n3kvkNiftcIj2CCmat9fcpLIGvlZ9SF-BM68I0f4d8a/s1302/Screenshot+2021-08-06+at+17.32.00.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="670" data-original-width="1302" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHRESNUQcdtDWNQ44v-FuNo4oD2KRhKshlHKE5LKvzEvQqYcEOhZtB3V237e5TZUlKcb6GsBr-hUsrHa7WCcARbyH9Wx63pH5a6n3kvkNiftcIj2CCmat9fcpLIGvlZ9SF-BM68I0f4d8a/w640-h330/Screenshot+2021-08-06+at+17.32.00.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 4. Covid-19 deaths in the UK during 2020 and 2021</b></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I have described previously the winter increase in Covid-19 deaths in the <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/01/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-miracle-in.html">Andalucía</a> region of Spain. A public health initiative in late November 2020 was to use Vitamin D in its activated form calcifediol, 25(OH)D, to protect the vulnerable elderly. It appeared to have a dramatic effect as there was a sudden drop in the number of deaths during December, with no obvious alternative explanation.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">However this dramatic benefit was reversed by an equally dramatic increase in deaths in January. As in the UK it was was brief peak, but the experience in Andalucía indicated that this peak appeared to be vitamin D / immunity resistant. Most strange, and still unexplained.</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAX953ZW8ZLKPWpZnGc6cW3A6yHNb-GG4xTqOh4b2hStDNr9n0GwuJJbxh85g8poGcQCS0NDh21XJImnWcqjD-TJ48xrOdyoTyqgwOgxXyfSvZvPeIU20MfFRxH6PtsJ6S7zWvw6Wf6Fvd/s608/Screenshot+2021-08-06+at+21.31.10.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="390" data-original-width="608" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAX953ZW8ZLKPWpZnGc6cW3A6yHNb-GG4xTqOh4b2hStDNr9n0GwuJJbxh85g8poGcQCS0NDh21XJImnWcqjD-TJ48xrOdyoTyqgwOgxXyfSvZvPeIU20MfFRxH6PtsJ6S7zWvw6Wf6Fvd/w640-h410/Screenshot+2021-08-06+at+21.31.10.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 5. Covid-19 deaths in Andalucía, Spain, during 2020-21</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The end of the winter saw the expected decrease in cases and deaths as the vitamin D season started again, and in 2021 this was supplemented by the immunity benefits of the vaccination roll-out programme. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">All was going well in the early summer of 2021 in Europe, and then something else happened that was completely unexpected. In the UK, in June and continuing into July, there was a sudden peak of Covid-19 cases, five times greater than the April 2020 peak.</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCUK__Jeuaws7QpKGYvVetVM7BigwHd3ztNEMMmN6x6sfcspVnAvP0hrZqAYOZb70DmfZKMSdqBXXarNWNQHVBPZcMX69edouEC-mNZCh5vAJ1_GhvnQOiR2pIlsgiZPwbjoXjaxOeqCfQ/s1198/Screenshot+2021-08-06+at+18.01.07.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1198" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCUK__Jeuaws7QpKGYvVetVM7BigwHd3ztNEMMmN6x6sfcspVnAvP0hrZqAYOZb70DmfZKMSdqBXXarNWNQHVBPZcMX69edouEC-mNZCh5vAJ1_GhvnQOiR2pIlsgiZPwbjoXjaxOeqCfQ/w640-h336/Screenshot+2021-08-06+at+18.01.07.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 6. Covid-19 cases in the UK during 2020-21</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The strange thing about this peak is not just its size, but that it occurred during the summer months when we would not expect a sudden outbreak of a respiratory virus. The number of cases is far greater than in the early stages of the pandemic in 2020. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There are many more Covid-19 "tests" being performed in 2021 than in 2020 and there are concerns about a large number of "false positives", but this would not explain the huge difference between May and July 2021. There is something happening that is real rather than a change in testing methodology.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This 2021 peak has perhaps been defying not just expectations but also the natural cycle as we have known it and which we experienced in 2020. The implication of this peak is that it is resistant to natural immunity (and also to the vaccination programme).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The high transmissibility of the "Delta Variant" would not automatically translate into clinical illness in mid-summer. It has been suggested that this peak in the UK was the result of crowds congregating for soccer matches in Euro-2021 during June, but this is far from robust an explanation.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The point is that the June – July peak is not just a UK phenomenon. It has been more dramatic in the Netherlands, with a much more sudden onset and a little later in July.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmE1k1Zm71ct7mXpsdpiBlpB3JMWyZsZL4j0wSbyo8NDwM7gk9p5ad-DVK9NZf6Je866aR7Rpp2olsmyk8jjP6-rop7AvimanjrOUQEO26JTN658csyksS8LZLHFGC4-DHI0ppGanZgMwi/s1038/Screenshot+2021-08-06+at+18.11.31.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="780" data-original-width="1038" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmE1k1Zm71ct7mXpsdpiBlpB3JMWyZsZL4j0wSbyo8NDwM7gk9p5ad-DVK9NZf6Je866aR7Rpp2olsmyk8jjP6-rop7AvimanjrOUQEO26JTN658csyksS8LZLHFGC4-DHI0ppGanZgMwi/w640-h480/Screenshot+2021-08-06+at+18.11.31.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 7. Covid-19 cases in the Netherlands during the summer of 2021</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">But on the other hand it is not particularly dangerous. Although the number of cases has risen dramatically, the number of deaths from Covid-19 has remained low in the Netherlands and in the UK (with a slight upturn in August).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzmA_zAdhbEmqUNNsGo3jkYWyUhD06Dy6ipgSU5fhdh8W_mlivoThDzzTLAGzY4dPu_rGIj1bfKbcicmbhNzG5MT6f9Q-Y0QiNjeWxrnavkn2OvLud9zDK6enU8kb2rLTdDpCg63V2gzcN/s1262/Screenshot+2021-08-06+at+18.09.32.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="654" data-original-width="1262" height="333" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzmA_zAdhbEmqUNNsGo3jkYWyUhD06Dy6ipgSU5fhdh8W_mlivoThDzzTLAGzY4dPu_rGIj1bfKbcicmbhNzG5MT6f9Q-Y0QiNjeWxrnavkn2OvLud9zDK6enU8kb2rLTdDpCg63V2gzcN/w640-h333/Screenshot+2021-08-06+at+18.09.32.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Figure 8. Covid-19 deaths in the UK during 2020 (blue) and 2021 (green)</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The natural fall in deaths in the late Spring and Summer of 2020 is clear, and the low number of deaths in 2021 is very reassuring, a result of natural immunity and vaccine immunity. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is a mystery why the number of cases behaved so very differently from deaths, and why cases increased so dramatically. No doubt the reason will emerge.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But I have just come across the steepest increase in cases per day, which has taken place in Iceland during late July. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Why has vitamin D immunity not suppressed it? </span><span style="font-family: arial;">What can possibly be causing it, again in the middle of the summer? </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGarB9Cvp9lA9I6-Fatx82m5hUY2Y2iwRbiJt9OHnoUQplS215rLGJqQR-G7pWhfhgly90rwjm_veXwO_iO107Snx0vjQA2StKgGFWFp-XYHIp0oFj-McQxhhMZ81t4pyVqw6LItkuf6S8/s1546/Screenshot+2021-08-08+at+22.01.18.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="814" data-original-width="1546" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGarB9Cvp9lA9I6-Fatx82m5hUY2Y2iwRbiJt9OHnoUQplS215rLGJqQR-G7pWhfhgly90rwjm_veXwO_iO107Snx0vjQA2StKgGFWFp-XYHIp0oFj-McQxhhMZ81t4pyVqw6LItkuf6S8/w640-h336/Screenshot+2021-08-08+at+22.01.18.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 9. Iceland : Covid-19 cases per day 2020 and 2021 <br />(Source: Our World in Data)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><br /><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com28tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-71378955188394745782021-07-20T13:20:00.003-07:002021-07-22T01:28:28.617-07:00 Covid-19 and Vitamin D : Barcelona revisited and again ignored<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlQIy7DEB_R3bgVUuoMuutOqwTELiBOMqZN2qiMprq2KMPzkAAP65zjkdSvT_L_cVRLg-KnI-AU_Sopm9JPB2MwhtchPwn1RmCuGrsMrk7pNvQk8oi5E329_tK99-odBvyqrAU7-z3VavA/s640/w660_1592171_hero_poppyline_497dbb.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlQIy7DEB_R3bgVUuoMuutOqwTELiBOMqZN2qiMprq2KMPzkAAP65zjkdSvT_L_cVRLg-KnI-AU_Sopm9JPB2MwhtchPwn1RmCuGrsMrk7pNvQk8oi5E329_tK99-odBvyqrAU7-z3VavA/s320/w660_1592171_hero_poppyline_497dbb.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">July 2021. The UK is enjoying an excellent summer, hot and sunny, no climatic catastrophies</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Covid-19 and Vitamin D</b></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">On September 3rd 2020 the UK had experienced 43,693 Covid-19 deaths, one of the highest deaths per million in the world. The hospitals had been quiet during the summer, the season of vitamin D production and high immunity</span><span style="font-family: arial;">, but as winter was approaching Covid-19 cases and deaths were about to increase. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwoFRyqKPlkYDvrsOpk8nWTjJqMTLy-Uwxv__uwFghEaRt2FbRDFVZrOV1q3E5vw_Fe90YGHMaUm8IvPbe48NJ_58UKNsjMwE1sPWHvPk0BgJCTGJGgUr8YA5qhH4mQi9j0yaRw3s8xa4R/s1766/Screenshot+2021-01-01+at+10.11.50.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="1766" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwoFRyqKPlkYDvrsOpk8nWTjJqMTLy-Uwxv__uwFghEaRt2FbRDFVZrOV1q3E5vw_Fe90YGHMaUm8IvPbe48NJ_58UKNsjMwE1sPWHvPk0BgJCTGJGgUr8YA5qhH4mQi9j0yaRw3s8xa4R/w640-h232/Screenshot+2021-01-01+at+10.11.50.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">UK: Covid-19 deaths per day during 2020</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">On this day we received </span><a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/09/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-randomised.html" style="font-family: arial;">a report from Córdoba, Spain,</a><span style="font-family: arial;"> that vitamin D in its part-activated form 25(OH)D, calcifediol, had been remarkably successful in patients admitted to hospital on account of Covid-19 pneumonia. This is just what we needed and it caused great excitement in those who had read the report and who were anxious to reduce deaths.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It is necessary to understand a little of the metabolism of vitamin D. The oil 7-dehydro-cholesterol (7-DHC) is synthesised in the skin, and when the UV </span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">energy from the Sun is strong enough in the summer months it converts 7-DHC into vitamin D by splitting a specific inter-atomic bond. It is also important to appreciate that the thin dry skin of the elderly produces inadequate amounts of 7-DHC and so vitamin D deficiency is inevitable in this age-group. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Vitamin D produced in the skin is transported in the blood to the liver. A slow process then takes place in which an -OH group is added to the molecule to form 25(OH)D, also known as calcifediol. It is the same after vitamin D is taken by mouth, the process of activation taking up to two weeks. </span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_t-3M_twHnNaF_1S_jayx_t7XonDIkw9ZX3iybE7UfmOoBH8uuKxOP4JoiJ-PHvm1NbNEe6NONYdK2gBwKMcXPIwZh-tHCGp1ldnX00XhZvB6iAeAcSDFBCJN1UZVFV46hc8Qz5_753kZ/s624/Screenshot+2020-06-28+at+14.32.46.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="564" data-original-width="624" height="361" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_t-3M_twHnNaF_1S_jayx_t7XonDIkw9ZX3iybE7UfmOoBH8uuKxOP4JoiJ-PHvm1NbNEe6NONYdK2gBwKMcXPIwZh-tHCGp1ldnX00XhZvB6iAeAcSDFBCJN1UZVFV46hc8Qz5_753kZ/w400-h361/Screenshot+2020-06-28+at+14.32.46.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">It takes two weeks for blood level of 25(OH)D to increase above 30ng/ml following different oral vitamin D regimens.</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This presents no problem in the steady state of normal life. However it presents a serious problem to someone who meets a sudden serious illness, and to many people at the time of a pandemic that is due to a new virus to which we have no historic immunity. Under such a circumstance immunity must be optimised immediately but this is not possible for someone who is vitamin D deficient. The escalation of immunity is likely to fail, the consequence being worsening illness, cytokine storm, widespread damage, the need for ventilatory care, and a high risk of death. This was the situation facing the </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">43,693 Covid-19 patients who died in the UK before September 3rd 2020, and many others who survived serious illness. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Brazil</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">As the escalation of immunity is of the greatest urgency, vitamin D itself cannot be expected to help. It will take much too long to become adequately activated. If someone has bacterial pneumonia it is of little value accepting a two week delay before giving the life-saving antibiotic. The vital disadvantage of delay was demonstrated <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33595634/">in Brazil</a>. In a controlled trial vitamin D was given to 102 patients with Covid-19 on an intensive care unit, and a 120 acted as controls. The main endpoint was the time to discharge from hospital, and there was no difference between the two groups. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This trial was widely reported as indicating that "vitamin D is of no value". This was ideal news for those who wanted vitamin D to be buried. But the paper made no mention of the metabolism and activation of vitamin D. It also made no mention of the clinical trial in Córdoba, and no acknowledgment of the obvious metabolic advantage of calcifediol.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Córdoba</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The Córdoba trial showed a very positive benefit from calcifediol, which had been used in an imaginative way, knowing that at the stage of serious Covid-19 pneumonia "raw" vitamin would act too slowly to be of benefit. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Instead of two weeks, calcifediol given by mouth reaches an adequate blood level after about two hours. The difference between "raw" vitamin D (cholecalciferol) and 25(OH)D (calcifediol) is obvious in terms of dynamics and effectiveness. The great potential superiority of calcifediol is easily understood.</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqrjEAV_0uC3wr9GiJfdmZIsyg6ki31EbAQ8gi7V8rsJRSlFbkgTwvboz73ma3Oe2AoTGZ_J4O4e0No3NxvN2PfZpEXllaJIdCdhqbiFV8C-otlBQPVAGYvJ2EU_GVIwniPEz6bObxq2eg/s556/Screenshot+2021-04-10+at+22.19.52.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="488" data-original-width="556" height="351" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqrjEAV_0uC3wr9GiJfdmZIsyg6ki31EbAQ8gi7V8rsJRSlFbkgTwvboz73ma3Oe2AoTGZ_J4O4e0No3NxvN2PfZpEXllaJIdCdhqbiFV8C-otlBQPVAGYvJ2EU_GVIwniPEz6bObxq2eg/w400-h351/Screenshot+2021-04-10+at+22.19.52.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">25(OH)D, calcifediol, achieves blood level greater than 30ng/ml after just two hours</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Of the 76 patients admitted to hospital on account of Covid-19 pneumonia, 26 were controls, being given standard high quality care. 13 (50%) required transfer to ICU and 2 died. 50 patients were given Calcifediol in addition. 1 (2%) required transfer to ICU and there were no deaths. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This huge benefit from calcifediol was clear, but once again vitamin D had to be buried from human view, for reasons explained in a previous Blog post: if vitamin D/25(OH)D were to be effective, then vaccines could not be given <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/06/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-politics-and.html">Emergency Use Authorisation</a>. It was the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) that performed this service to maintain the "official" narrative, informing clinical doctors struggling to prevent deaths that the dramatic result of the Córdoba study must not influence clinical practice. And so it happened: calcifediol was not used. There was no debate. There was no "peer review". NICE could not be challenged. Clinical doctors had lost their ability to assess risks and do their best for their patients. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The use of calcifediol has no disadvantage, only benefit, but this was not of "official" importance. The number of deaths continued to increase. The denial of calcifediol could be regarded as a crime against humanity. The patients who were to die from Covid-19 would not be given the choice of calcifediol treatment, but they will be just be pawns in a much bigger game.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Barcelona, February</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Five months and 50,000 UK deaths later we received the first results of another <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/02/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-success-of.html">controlled clinical trial from Spain, this time from Barcelona</a>. A larger trial involving 838 patients admitted to hospital with Covid-19 pneumonia. 447 were treated with Calcifediol and 391 acted as controls receiving just standard high quality care. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Of those who received calcifediol, 20 (4.5%) required transfer to ICU, compared to 82 (21%) of the control group. On the basis of intention to treat, 21 (4.7%) of the calcifediol group died, compared to 62 (15.9%) controls. In practice, some of the control patients were given calcifediol following transfer to ICU. The clinical staff wanted to avoid preventable deaths, and quite rightly.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This highly significant result must be enough. The pressure on ICUs was so great that such a reduction in demand would have been very welcome, had it been allowed. Once again there was no debate within UK medicine, just a denial of benefit by <a href="https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-preprint-on-calcifediol-vitamin-d-metabolite-treatment-and-covid-19-related-outcomes-data-from-barcelona/">Professors Naveed Sattar and Adrain Martineau</a> on behalf of NICE. The structure of the trial was criticised for not being "perfect", a sad example of the good being over-ruled by the illusory perfect. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In practice perfection is impossible to achieve. I have illustrated previously that in both <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/10/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-nice-fails-us.html">Cordoba</a> and <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/02/covid-19-vitamin-d-after-barcelona-more.html">Barcelona</a>, the two trial groups were very closely matched to the point that any imperfection would be over-ruled by the very large benefit of treatment. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Activated vitamin D, 25(OH)D, calcifediol remained unavailable for use in the UK and elsewhere. Patients continued to die unnecessarily.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Vaccines</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The new experimental gene therapies, now known as vaccines, came into clinical use under FDA Emergency Use Authorisation (EUA) in December 2020. By this time 75,136 Covid-19 deaths had occurred in the UK. But we could hardly expect an instant effect from the vaccines. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In fact following the introduction of vaccinations there was an unexplained surge of cases and deaths in January 2021, reaching a maximum of 68,053 cases on January 8th and 11,062 deaths on January 7th. The surge settled and by March there were fewer than 10,000 cases and fewer than 200 deaths per day. </span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCXJVplx7NtVuSMFU1e4PBS0m-BeNTZHU4zwco4QBfdj4BPJ1Pkh_d-0O9k5eIfsWiYSWygsQ1x0dLMC4Ky_iryyJq3brNqinCgkU8FWrUWYTDK41icFtuAGkiP8NN4x1Bco1Az3QZ9YGJ/s1296/Screenshot+2021-07-20+at+19.21.33.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="670" data-original-width="1296" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCXJVplx7NtVuSMFU1e4PBS0m-BeNTZHU4zwco4QBfdj4BPJ1Pkh_d-0O9k5eIfsWiYSWygsQ1x0dLMC4Ky_iryyJq3brNqinCgkU8FWrUWYTDK41icFtuAGkiP8NN4x1Bco1Az3QZ9YGJ/w640-h326/Screenshot+2021-07-20+at+19.21.33.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">UK: Covid-19 deaths per day since the arrival of the pandemic</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The organisation of the vaccines was a particular triumph in the UK but the benefit was of prevention. People admitted to hospital with severe Covid-19 pneumonia would not benefit from vaccination and would continue to have a high mortality rate despite high quality intensive care. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In the six months following the introduction of vaccines in December 2020 there were 60,616 Covid-19 deaths in the UK. It is inexcusable that vitamin D as calcifediol was not given to those who were critically ill despite the vaccination initiative, in an attempt to reduce these deaths. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It was in the first week in February 2021 that the results of the Barcelona trial became available. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Barcelona, June </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The Barcelona pre-print was rejected by Professors Naveed and Adrian Martineau on behalf of NICE as soon as it appeared. Their comments were published on February 15th. There was no debate, no peer review, just the opinions of two people. The misuse of great power. They suggested that the process of randomisation was irregular and that this would invalidate the result. I have pointed out that randomisation was very successful but not quite perfect. They also complained that the paper had not been peer-reviewed. <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/02/covid-19-vitamin-d-after-barcelona-more.html">More evidence was demanded</a> while people continued to die.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The pandemic was evolving rapidly. Urgency was essential, as was happening with vaccine development and subsequent Emergency Use Authorisation. The results of many studies of a variety of treatments were released before publication so that clinical action could be taken should the clinical staff think it appropriate. Delays in treatment should be minimal. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The initial communication from Barcelona appeared in early February 2021. <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34097036/">On June 7th the paper was released on-line </a>before being printed in the Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism. It had </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">been peer reviewed and accepted for publication but this process took four months, during which time many deaths had </span><span style="font-family: arial;">occurred. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Once again vitamin D as calcifediol, a natural product, was shown to be very effective and without untoward effects. Perfectly safe, very cheap, very effective. Patients treated with calcifediol had an 87% reduction in need for ICU compared to controls.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Action ?</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It might have been expected that we would have seen headlines in the medical journals and national press, but none appeared. At least in the UK, and apparently in other European countries and North America, the paper was dead at birth. NICE has made no comment, but news of the paper has circulated on the internet. Perhaps clinical doctors can now act and use calcifediol for the critically ill on the basis of what they have read, before NICE says "No". But professionalism has been replaced by government control. Covid-19 has become Covid-1984.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Vitamin D is powerful but only in a dose adequate to optimise the escalation of defensive immunity. Unfortunately we are up against another government institution rather than a medical professional body, the Royal Colleges of Physicians which have been responsible for medical knowledge and excellence for 500 years. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The Standing Advisory Committee for Nutrition (SACN) advises the government about vitamin D. It appears to have little awareness of the role of vitamin D and its metabolites in the escalation of defensive immunity and the suppression of the cytokine storm, mentioning just "a suggestion". SACN acknowledged only the role of vitamin D in bone maturation, recommending a low orals dose of just 10mcg, 400units each day, about a tenth of what is required for optimisation of defensive immunity.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Controversy of the correct requirement of vitamin D has caused confusion and led to problems with implementation and interpretation. When "vitamin D treatment" is mentioned, what dose or achievement is being described? Of course the achievement should be that of a given blood level. In respect of bone and calcium health a blood level of 10–20ng/ml (25–50nmol/L is adequate. Experience duri</span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">ng the Covid-19 pandemic indicates that a target range of 40–ng/ml, 100–150nmol/L is safe and effective, but variation of thought remains. The official denial of the benefit of vitamin D during the pandemic has stifled the opportunity for definitive research.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>July 2021</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We are now seeing an unexpected rapid increase of "cases" of Covid-19 in the UK, also in the Netherlands and Spain. The increase is also starting to show in other European countries and in the USA. This is not matched by an increase in deaths, but there is an increase in hospital admissions in England, from 100 to 500 per day.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">These patients admitted to hospital could be given vitamin D as calcifediol to diminish the need for transfer to the ICUs and to reduce the numbers of deaths. But it not happening. Clinical doctors are still being denied the opportunity to use calcifediol and patients will continue to die when they need not do so.</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnHBQnYqgGYVq50hnpLUDUlHMOiqiZPKOGW3s-NcmaLMnm5LyDKDx7rKU-U1iR9baksN7f0Wfq9oT7CbEJ-B8xxiryLcRixXhAIX1UqAI2gMjfwuOuF9bprAjisewQfSDG6It-K5KdeqD0/s1510/Screenshot+2021-07-20+at+19.11.36.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="1510" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnHBQnYqgGYVq50hnpLUDUlHMOiqiZPKOGW3s-NcmaLMnm5LyDKDx7rKU-U1iR9baksN7f0Wfq9oT7CbEJ-B8xxiryLcRixXhAIX1UqAI2gMjfwuOuF9bprAjisewQfSDG6It-K5KdeqD0/w640-h334/Screenshot+2021-07-20+at+19.11.36.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Why are cases increasing in 2021 at the time when they were diminishing in 2020?</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-29914220234229282812021-06-21T13:42:00.006-07:002021-06-23T00:27:10.417-07:00Covid-19 and Vitamin D : Politics and the influence of the US FDA<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggt23I8ecBXmFaxhteXSGaq08IRZohjaBuVzU2wTOmNq2eABGdsiErg4jhvYVTZXCmcnD59UdsIQWaMhHnMp8BPMaf0HWkAEYHdYhyEi7V43ufCtfDah3dsE5pgCh13LHbwbMySho1CvaZ/s588/Screenshot+2021-06-19+at+11.59.57.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="312" data-original-width="588" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggt23I8ecBXmFaxhteXSGaq08IRZohjaBuVzU2wTOmNq2eABGdsiErg4jhvYVTZXCmcnD59UdsIQWaMhHnMp8BPMaf0HWkAEYHdYhyEi7V43ufCtfDah3dsE5pgCh13LHbwbMySho1CvaZ/s320/Screenshot+2021-06-19+at+11.59.57.png" width="320" /></a></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Covid-19 and Vitamin D : the influence of the FDA</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In March 2020, the pandemic of Covid-19 was causing chaos in the hospitals of Europe and elsewhere, a major logistic challenge being the large number of critically ill patients with Covid-19 pneumonia (lung disease) requiring ventilatory care. The approach of the UK and other governments was to commission and buy more ventilators and even emergency hospitals (Nightingale hospitals in the UK). This gross oversimplification of the action required was easily made by politicians who regarded hospitals as automated factories, unaware of the need for large numbers of skilled doctors and nurses to provide the intensive and ventilatory care that would be required. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Some medical practitioners and scientists had a knowledge of the importance of defensive immunity in minimising the effects of a new virus to which we had no historic immunity. The details had been worked out during the previous 40 years, and were available for all to read. It was clear that vitamin D has a pivotal role in escalating the cascade of defensive immunity.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Previous evidence was available that deficiency of vitamin D is very common, in the UK, in Europe generally, and indeed world-wide. It was also clear that vitamin D deficiency is particularly common and serious in the elderly (whose dry skin is unable to produce vitamin D), in people of black and Asian ethnicity living in the UK and other north European countries, and in the obese.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Why was this knowledge not applied when the pandemic started? Surely the best brains of the nation were at work, and they would have known that the best immediate defence would have been to optimise as soon as possible the defensive immunity of the population, especially those at particular risk – the elderly who were to die from Covid-19 in large numbers. Why was the opportunity to minimise these deaths completely missed?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>WHO and failure of duty</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It must have been the duty of Public Health England and other national public health bodies worldwide to take immediate action to correct widespread vitamin D deficiency, but it must also have been the duty and responsibility of the World Health Organisation. It was not to be. The WHO even redefined "immunity" so as to exclude natural (vitamin D associated) immunity and acknowledge only man-made immunity, that is vaccines. It later decided to recognise both. But it was clear that the objective of the WHO would be to support the development of "vaccines" to the exclusion of all other medications. Why was this? Why was vitamin D deficiency and its correction to be ignored?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It should be noted that the approach of the much-applauded new experimental gene therapies is to develop immunity against a specific virus, but strictly speaking they are not vaccines. However, the term "vaccine" is more acceptable to the population than "gene therapy", and so this description is used.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Many clinical doctors would be aware of the importance and extent of vitamin D deficiency, and the automatic clinical duty of a doctor to correct it. How could the WHO control and suppress the prescribing of vitamin D by these clinical doctors? </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>WHO policy</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The key to understanding what happened concerning the denial of vitamin D lies in the WHO policy of "vaccines for the world population". The problem was that vaccines take several years to develop and then to test for both effectiveness and safety. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The vaccines would not become available until the end of 2020 at the earliest. However even though <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/12/covid19-and-vitamin-d-efficacy-of.html">short-term evidence of benefit </a>might be available by that time, full demonstration of safety would take much longer and so licensing for use could not be anticipated. It was therefore necessary for the vaccines (each one) to be issued with Emergency Use Authorisation (EUA) by the US <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines">Food and Drug Administration</a> (FDA). This was achieved with clinical trial evidence of reduction of incidence of Covid-19 following vaccination. Several vaccines received authorisation in this way during the following six months.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The US EUAs were followed by emergency use authorisations being issued by UK, EU, and other national agencies. An extremely well-organised roll-out of vaccinations followed, the objective being world population vaccination by the end of 2021, on the basis of EUAs and without licences.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;">The granting of an EUA </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">acknowledges that the medicine / vaccine concerned is still experimental.</span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> The EUA is granted on the basis of the clinical experiments, the controlled clinical trials, being continued so as to demonstrate the incidence and range of untoward events in the two groups, the vaccinated and the controls. Only in this way could the safety of the vaccines be demonstrated, by comparing those who had received the vaccines and those who had not. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Unfortunately this has not happened and will not happen because </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">at the end of the initial clinical phase, </span><span style="font-family: arial;">the unvaccinated controls were "unblinded", and the great majority appear to have been vaccinated at this stage. The controls ceased to be and so the long-term safety </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">evaluation will be uncertain. A clear and detailed account of this process written by Peter Doshi, senior editor of the British Medical Journal, was </span><a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1244?utm_source=etoc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=tbmj&utm_content=weekly&utm_term=20210611" style="font-family: arial;">published on-line on May 18th 2021</a><span style="font-family: arial;">. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>FDA rules and Vitamin D</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">To understand the implication of the EUAs and their effect on the use of vitamin D, it is necessary to read the small print of the <a href="https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/emergency-use-authorization-medical-products-and-related-authorities">FDA rules</a> for the granting of an EUA. The rules state that:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><p style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i>"For FDA to issue an EUA, there must be no adequate, approved, and available alternative to the candidate product for diagnosing, preventing, or treating the disease or condition.</i>" </span></p><p style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">As the decision had been made from the onset that vaccines were to be developed (at great cost), and ultimately by more than 50 companies in the world, it was essential that there must be no obstruction to the EUAs. Was there in reality an available alternative to the vaccines for </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">prevention or treatment of Covid-19? </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">In March 2020 there could not possibly have been any evaluation of specific medications in the treatment and prevention of Covid-19. There were a number of possibilities, based on the experience of other infections, bacterial and viral, and basic science. It was clear from basic principles that the first level of defence against a virus infection, especially a novel virus, is the innate immunity of the body. There was much understanding of the processes involved, and the pivotal role of vitamin D in its active forms in the escalation of defensive immunity. It was also known that deficiency of vitamin D was very common, especially in the groups that would be very badly affected as the pandemic unfolded. It had also been demonstrated before the appearance of Covid-19 that vitamin D supplement would reduce the incidence of respiratory infection.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">So here lay a problem. How could EUAs for vaccines be granted with vitamin D being readily available? It had to be buried out of view of the public and their officials. In particular successful clinical trials of calcifediol, 25(OH)D (activated vitamin D) had to be "censored". </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">The suppression of knowledge of vitamin D has been a great achievement and triumph of officialdom. Vitamin D deficiency has been ignored, irresponsibly so in the elderly, in the obese, and in people of black or Asian ethnicity. The denial of this scientific knowledge can be regarded as a crime against humanity. There were more than 75,000 Covid-19 deaths in the UK during 2020, and those who died were not given the opportunity or the choice to receive vitamin D. There was no public health policy to test for vitamin D deficiency, knowing of the high prevalence and importance of such deficiency at this time. In practice the testing of blood levels of vitamin D was discouraged.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">The achievement of the introduction of vaccines with just Emergency Use Approval was at the cost of many deaths, especially of the known at risk groups, that might have been prevented by the correction of vitamin D deficiency. </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">The importance of vitamin D deficiency has been shown in a <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.04.21258358v1">study from Israel</a>. </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsGOYJSMgpoQUdwOmFGdeFtg-rNQ1oorjkg7Q3ahtlpc_93mGssLjBVeokKcvqsracCS1Ey4hlysHo2I_tZZiws4m-NMGaYiHKZIeD-ibdOV9WcxGeP-YnBPnYBiCBJhljTvkeO_QKN0Dc/s1262/Screenshot+2021-06-18+at+20.21.45.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="466" data-original-width="1262" height="148" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsGOYJSMgpoQUdwOmFGdeFtg-rNQ1oorjkg7Q3ahtlpc_93mGssLjBVeokKcvqsracCS1Ey4hlysHo2I_tZZiws4m-NMGaYiHKZIeD-ibdOV9WcxGeP-YnBPnYBiCBJhljTvkeO_QKN0Dc/w400-h148/Screenshot+2021-06-18+at+20.21.45.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">There was a 3% death rate in those admitted to hospital who were not vitamin D deficient. However those who were severely vitamin D deficient (<10ng/ml, <25nmol/L) had a 14 times greater risk of critical disease and 25% died.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">During the pandemic we have seen many careful observational studies of the great disadvantage of vitamin D deficiency, which could have been corrected rapidly, cheaply, and safely. This was not done so as not to jeopardise the issue of EUAs to the vaccines. </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">Vitamin D deficiency was not even considered, and official pronouncements referred (always negatively) to "vitamin D supplements", never referred to the </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">correction of vitamin D deficiency, and always denied the role of vitamin D in the escalation of defensive immunity.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">The "sensible" approach at the onset of the pandemic would have been to correct vitamin D deficiency immediately, with priority to the elderly and the black and Asian ethnic groups. This would have protected the population during the course of 2020 until the vaccines became available, but FDA rules meant that this sensible and responsible policy was not to be.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">The rule meant that exclusion and silence were also applied to Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine, both of which had been shown to be effective against Covid-19.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><b>After FDA Emergency Use Authorisations</b></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">In mid-2021 vaccines are still being given on the basis of EUAs. No vaccine has yet received a licence for use. The EUAs mean that if there are any untoward effects, responsibility and compensation will be the function of governments who issued the EUAs, and not the pharmaceutical companies themselves. This can be of only good news to the companies.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">How long can an EUA continue before a licence becomes necessary? It is far from clear and at this stage the FDA is unlikely to call a halt to mass vaccination while awaiting licensing. However once licences are granted vitamin D can emerge from seclusion and come into clinical use and correct the widespread deficiency that has been highlighted during the pandemic.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">But there is another problem. Licensing will require full evaluation based on continuation of the randomised controlled trials, on the basis of which EUAs were based. But of course it took just a short time, about two months, to demonstrate a reduced risk of Covid-19 in those receiving a vaccine compared to controls. It would take much longer to demonstrate safety. </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica;">Adverse event have occurred in some people who have received vaccines, events such as pulmonary emboli or even death. They have </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica;">generally been dismissed as "coincidences", that they would have happened if the vaccines had not been given. The </span></span><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">usual approach would be to compare the event frequency in the vaccinated group with the event frequency in the control group. Simple, but not possible now. At the end of the first stage of the controlled trial, the randomisation code was broken, and the control subjects were given the opportunity to be vaccinated. The vast majority took the opportunity. </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica;">This means that there is no longer a control group. Randomised controlled evidence cannot be presented to the FDA and similar licensing </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica;">authorities. Safety considerations will be seriously curtailed. Can EUAs be continued </span></span><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">indefinitely? This might be acceptable to companies from whom financial responsibility has been taken by governments.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">The pharmaceutical companies that gave vaccines to the control subjects state that they did so for ethical reasons, and these are understandable as there are ethical constraints on controlled trials. Controls can become sacrificial victims to "the truth", as I have pointed out in a <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/02/covid-19-vitamin-d-after-barcelona-more.html">previous post</a>. </span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">It is understandable that with-holding vaccines from controls once benefit had been demonstrated was considered to be ethically unsound, but it puts the FDA in a difficult position concerning licensing. However the same ethical approach to <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/02/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-success-of.html">vitamin D / calcifediol trials</a> was used to dismiss these trials from public view and practical application.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">The vaccine developments have been remarkable, but the dismissal of vitamin D and the correction of its deficiency has been a disgrace.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><b>A failure of WHO</b></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">I mentioned that the WHO needed to prevent doctors from prescribing vitamin D, but this is not actually correct. It would have been accepted and indeed ideal if doctors were to prescribe and encourage vitamin D, as long as it was beneath the FDA radar, as long as it was done on the quiet so that EUAs could continue.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">Although there has been continuing official denial of the benefits of vitamin D, there has been a strong "grass-roots" movement. Sales of vitamin D in pharmacies and health food shops have escalated during the pandemic, including the ideal doses of 2,000 to 5,000 units daily. Many clinical doctors have told me that "We are all taking vitamin D", and recommending it to their patients. This includes hospital doctors. This is good news and it will have contributed to the very low number of deaths from Covid-19 during the Spring and early summer of 2021, the onset of the Vitamin D Production season.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">With vitamin D being given in good dose unofficially, any benefit from vitamin D would not be measured and the totality of benefit would be attributed to "official" actions: lockdown and vaccines. The leaders of the nation and their medical advisors would welcome the increase in the number of people taking vitamin D, even though they would deny knowledge of it.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><b>June 2021</b></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">The overall great improvement in the immunity of the UK and other populations is shown in the figures below, a comparison between 2020 and 2021. The number of deaths per day is now very low. In the UK an average of about 1,600 people die each day, and so five Covid-19 deaths should not cause great alarm.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">The numbers of hospital and ICU admissions are also very low, again a great benefit of improved immunity. The number of cases has risen in recent weeks, probably the result of more freedom of the people. This time in 2020 we were in serious lockdown with very little road traffic. The increasing traffic density now is a measure of freedom of travel and relaxation of mixing rules. "Cases" are not easily defined, but as there has been a policy of more Covid-19 tests for all, no doubt most of the cases will be asymptomatic positive tests.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-n2GFK8AOVhi9K736zOZlQ_xUpZJGnn6JbXBsRNfHDPp0B42pScrQG9NG_97uc9ipmoKpUQClI1Y4Y3SyW3COY_nAePIXRh-HEja4iKRwTgsEp9mULU3rAC0_CVnXkViN15I3pBrwy9Gi/s1272/Screenshot+2021-06-21+at+21.39.59.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="676" data-original-width="1272" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-n2GFK8AOVhi9K736zOZlQ_xUpZJGnn6JbXBsRNfHDPp0B42pScrQG9NG_97uc9ipmoKpUQClI1Y4Y3SyW3COY_nAePIXRh-HEja4iKRwTgsEp9mULU3rAC0_CVnXkViN15I3pBrwy9Gi/w640-h340/Screenshot+2021-06-21+at+21.39.59.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UK: daily deaths from Covid-19, 2020 and 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiARWYm8h_PSY4lBbfqtFNMmqOCtG-1mZbx6qH6GVCxmmI4nKoK0uCjXraZTLH-DLQZQBXyX-YKi7oD_nQecIWgUDpiXJuRIkvqJHdpoUw2VbawuOMjce2E7POBrNcb_ZNFNK7A9MJCa1m9/s1222/Screenshot+2021-06-22+at+12.01.58.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="626" data-original-width="1222" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiARWYm8h_PSY4lBbfqtFNMmqOCtG-1mZbx6qH6GVCxmmI4nKoK0uCjXraZTLH-DLQZQBXyX-YKi7oD_nQecIWgUDpiXJuRIkvqJHdpoUw2VbawuOMjce2E7POBrNcb_ZNFNK7A9MJCa1m9/w640-h328/Screenshot+2021-06-22+at+12.01.58.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UK: daily cases of Covid-19, 2020 and 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">The increase in the number of cases now is much less than in January 2021, a peak that has not been satisfactory explained.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDnSfMvxtzXLZCtajco0zP3H7egtQ2qfcnJ6GdbTMV-aTJysm_RERGBHtQlCMuw7aAZmuhujlh6hsfNYczV0lPyWc1Ay1eHPwEqOsOXRkNngdGwRPcG4Ef-2Dj01tATCxGOCgMMVs3w9Pt/s1208/Screenshot+2021-06-22+at+12.13.42.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="740" data-original-width="1208" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDnSfMvxtzXLZCtajco0zP3H7egtQ2qfcnJ6GdbTMV-aTJysm_RERGBHtQlCMuw7aAZmuhujlh6hsfNYczV0lPyWc1Ay1eHPwEqOsOXRkNngdGwRPcG4Ef-2Dj01tATCxGOCgMMVs3w9Pt/w640-h392/Screenshot+2021-06-22+at+12.13.42.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UK: daily cases of Covid-19, November 2020 to June 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-30754526397049311012021-05-24T03:52:00.003-07:002021-05-26T14:03:00.404-07:00Covid-19 & Vitamin D : dangers in pregnancy<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyUNbtTEH9_lZJbhRnuPbT7QQwxvkmh7uY4e8sX2R7qJnztBF-tz4dv2MtaW04cT-GfShog93wzBnaIsGY2B648fHTrzXGFYRmOeOC77IEadJou0LUwOeUbnrTfFFp16zzcM-ltj8J3C9C/s2048/IMG_4802.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="1536" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyUNbtTEH9_lZJbhRnuPbT7QQwxvkmh7uY4e8sX2R7qJnztBF-tz4dv2MtaW04cT-GfShog93wzBnaIsGY2B648fHTrzXGFYRmOeOC77IEadJou0LUwOeUbnrTfFFp16zzcM-ltj8J3C9C/s320/IMG_4802.jpeg" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Coast of Cumbria UK, May 22: the Sun keeps us healthy</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b></b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><b>Covid-19 & Vitamin D : dangers in pregnancy </b></b></span></p><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">During the Covid-19 pandemic there has been a disproportionately high incidence of disease and death among black African and Asian minority ethnic (BAME) communities. For example, a publication as early as April 10th 2020 showed that of 3883 patients with confirmed Covid-19, 14% were of Asian ethnicity and 12% were of black African ethnicity, much higher than their proportion in the UK population <a href="https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/c31dd38d-d77b-ea11-9124-00505601089b">(Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre)</a>. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A little-discussed aspect of the Covid-19 pandemic has been its particularly damaging effect in pregnancy. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There has been an increased incidence of Covid-19 in pregnant women, and especially in ethnic black and Asian pregnant women who are far more likely to be admitted to hospital on account of Covid-19.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">C</span><span style="font-family: arial;">ompared to pregnant ethnic white women, p</span><span style="font-family: arial;">regnant ethnic black African women in the UK have been eight times more likely to be admitted to hospital on account of Covid-19, and ethnic Asian women four times more likely.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Of 427 pregnant women in the UK admitted to hospital on account of Covid-19, more than half (55%) were from black African and Asian ethnic groups. There was no mention of vitamin D deficiency being a possible important factor, with only psychological and social pressures being identified. <a href="https://www.magonlinelibrary.com/doi/full/10.12968/bjom.2020.28.10.718">(British Journal of Midwifery, October 2020)</a>. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Black African and Asian ethnic (BAME) women, whether pregnant or not, have a had particularly high death rate from Covid-19 when on Intensive Care Units (<a href="https://www.rcm.org.uk/media/4089/addressing-increased-risks-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-for-bame-women-statement-final-14-may-2020v2.pdf">Knight et al 2020</a>).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Before the Covid-19 pandemic, it had been recognised in the UK that ethnic black African women have a five-fold incidence of death during pregnancy, and women of Asian ethnicity a two-fold incidence (<a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0095086">Nair et al, 2014</a>). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Pakistani women living in the UK have been more likely to have a premature baby or neonatal death than had they been living in Pakistan.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Pregnant BAME women have been disproportionately destined to die from Covid-19.</span></p><div><p style="color: #0f0f0f; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Overall, the Covid-19 death rate of people of black African ethnicity has been 3.5 times greater than for ethnic white UK people, for black Caribbean ethnicity 1.7 times, and for those of Pakistani descent was 2.7 times higher (<a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30228-9/fulltext">Kirby 2020</a>).</span></p><p style="color: #0f0f0f; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Merriweather, serif; font-size: 16px; text-align: justify;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="color: #0f0f0f; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">The obvious disadvantage of these BAME women has been attributed to racial discrimination, that they have been treated less favourably by the maternity and other parts of the health service. However had they been discriminated against, they would not have had a much higher admission rate to hospital but might have languished at home. </span></p><p style="color: #0f0f0f; font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #0f0f0f; font-family: Helvetica;">Of 240 <span style="caret-color: rgb(15, 15, 15);">pregnant</span> women with Covid-19, 10% required admission to hospital, a higher proportion than </span></span><span style="color: #0f0f0f; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: large;">expected that indicates a particular <span style="caret-color: rgb(15, 15, 15);">susceptibility to severe Covid-19 when pregnant. </span></span></p><p style="color: #0f0f0f; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="color: #0f0f0f; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="color: #0f0f0f; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: #f0f0f0; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span>It has been suggested that unfamiliarity with accessing health services because of language difficulties, discrimination and immigration status impede the treatment of ethnic minority women</span><span>. Although there might be truth in this, the very high admission rate of ethnic minority pregnant women with Covid-19 to hospital and intensive care suggests that there has been no impediment to necessary care.</span></span></span></p><p style="color: #0f0f0f; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="color: #0f0f0f; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">For example in a <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33515516/">study of 240 pregnant women in Washington, USA,</a> <span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #373d3f;">the hospital admission rate for COVID-19 was 3.5-fold higher (10%) than non-pregnant women.</span></span></p><p style="color: #0f0f0f; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #373d3f;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">In this study 3 out of 240 pregnant women with COVID-19 died, which equates to a maternal mortality rate of 1,250 out of 100,000 pregnancies. COVID-19 mortality rate was therefore 13.6-fold higher than the rate in similarly aged non-pregnant women.</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><b>Vitamin D</b></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">The papers providing the data presented above show a frightening disadvantage experienced by BAME women in pregnancy. However, apart from suggested neglect by health professionals, no explanation is proposed. As with other health disadvantages of BAME people, no answers but continuing disadvantage, including early death.</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">Vitamin D was not mentioned in any of the papers that I have read. We know that vitamin D deficiency is widespread, but particular so in people with ethnically determined melanin-rich dark skin. It is very likely that vitamin D deficiency is the crucial and immediately reversible factor that is responsible for these tragically high death rates in pregnancy. </span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">How common is vitamin D deficiency in pregnancy? Is there ethnic variation?</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">One thing is certain: the foetus takes whatever it needs from its mother, with possible disadvantage to its mother. We know that the foetus requires iron, and so iron deficiency anaemia is common in pregnant women, with iron supplement being standard care. We know that folic acid deficiency is common in pregnant women, as folic acid is necessary for a the high cell division rate in the foetus. Deficiency of folic acid becomes a great disadvantage to the foetus and to the mother. Folic acid is also a standard supplement in pregnancy.</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"> </span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">Vitamin D is essential for the development of the foetus, and in particular for neurological maturation in the later stages of pregnancy. The foetus must obtain its vitamin D from its mother, who is therefore at risk of development of vitamin D deficiency during pregnancy, as with iron and folic acid. </span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">If the mother is deficient of vitamin D at the onset of pregnancy, the deficiency will worsen when the foetus takes as much as it can. The vitamin D deficient expectant mother will have impaired immunity. As a specific result, during the past year she will be susceptible to critical or fatal Covid-19.</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">The result of vitamin D deficiency in the foetus will be an impairment of brain development in particular. The main result in the infant will be the development of the bone disease rickets, most obvious when walking commences. This has been seen in recent years in the children of ethnic black African and South Asian mothers in the UK and the USA.</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">Unfortunately I have not been able to locate any studies that show the effect of pregnancy on blood levels of vitamin D. However if low levels of vitamin D were identified during early pregnancy a supplement would be given, or at least I hope so. Medical ethics should determine that we will never know the effect of pregnancy on maternal blood levels of vitamin D. </span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">In a study of 239 women in early pregnancy in Indonesia, 82% were deficient in vitamin D as judged by blood level less than 20ng/ml (50nmol/L). If we now consider from our experience of Covid-19 that a blood level of 40ng/m (100nmol/L) is ideal, then perhaps all were deficient.</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"> </span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">Generally there has been very little research into the importance of vitamin D in pregnancy. What is theoretically necessary is recording the natural history by observation of the vitamin D status of pregnant women at first booking in the ante-natal clinic, and then following the pregnancy, birth, and the development of the baby. As mentioned this is unlikely to happen. We cannot observe the natural history of any condition when treatment is readily available and safe. This applies particularly to a hormone, vitamin, or essential nutrient deficiency. Furthermore, during the Covid-19 pandemic the value of careful observation has been constantly downplayed, despite it being the foundation of science since the time of Francis Bacon (c1620) and through the Age of Enlightenment.</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">Research into the human condition is constrained by ethical considerations and the Nuremberg Code. Research might therefore be inconclusive and doctors will need to use judgement on what is to be done in <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/09/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-time-for-action.html">the best interests of their patients</a>. Identification of a deficiency (for example iron or vitamin D) should be looked for as a routine when its probability is high, and correction should be undertaken as a medical duty.</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">This is an example of "Perfection must not become the enemy of the good", wisdom from my friend Linda Benskin. Medical practice must not stand still while awaiting the perfect research study: it must acknowledge and act on the results of good research. </span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">As an aside, research into the importance of vitamin D and its deficiency during the Covid-19 pandemic has on some occasions led to blood being taken at the onset of illness but only afterwards analysing it for vitamin D, and so being able to associate blood level with outcome, the natural history. These studies could be regarded as cynical disregard of the Nuremberg Code: testing the blood at the time of it being taken and then correcting deficiency might have prevented many deaths. However the studies have the clear result of temporality, that vitamin D deficiency results in an increased risk of Covid-19 death.</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><b>Vitamin D and pregnancy</b></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">The major complication of pregnancy is toxaemia, or pre-eclamptic toxaemia (PET), </span></span><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #373d3f; font-family: arial;">or pre-eclampsia (PE) which is the preferred term at present</span><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #373d3f; font-family: arial;">. It is characterised by high blood pressure, ankle swelling, kidney damage with protein in the urine, and if uncontrolled it leads to convulsions (eclampsia). It was first described by Hippocrates in the 5th century BCE, and term "eclampsia" comes from the Greek word for "lightning". There is a high risk of foetal death in </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #373d3f; font-family: arial;">pre-eclampsia</span><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #373d3f; font-family: arial;">, but these days medical control is usually successful, with emergency caesarian section delivery sometimes being necessary.</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #373d3f; font-family: arial;">Pre-eclampsia is related to vitamin D deficiency and the association has been identified on many occasions. PE appears to be driven by inflammatory </span><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">processes that originate in the placenta, and with Covid-19 pneumonia these inflammatory processes have come to be called a "cytokine storm". It is very damaging. It is known that vitamin D down-regulates these otherwise uncontrolled inflammatory processes by linking with VDR and down-regulating specific genes. What initiates the inflammatory processes originating within the placenta is unknown.</span></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">As with Covid-19 and vitamin D deficiency, the huge background of observational and basic scientific research has not led to an adequate exploration of the therapeutic potential of vitamin D in pre-eclampsia. The problems are a lack of the necessary medical knowledge within maternity care, and once again the ethical constraints on clinical research. But as we are dealing with serious deficiency of a known vitamin/hormone, correction of this is a clinical duty without the necessity of delays while awaiting further research. </span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">If pregnant women were to be tested and found to be deficient of vitamin D in early pregnancy, could a random half of them give informed consent to be given a placebo rather than vitamin D? This marks the limitation of the randomised controlled trial. Is it ethical to withhold (with full informed consent) vitamin D at such an important time, knowing that the pregnant woman is deficient?</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">Also, if</span></span><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> vitamin D is given it must be followed up to achieve a target blood level, and this should be 40ng/ml, 100nmol/L. It is of no help to give a sub-optimal dose of vitamin D and conclude that vitamin D is of no value. Giving two units of insulin will not help someone with diabetes, but this does not mean that insulin is of no value. Meeting pre-determined blood effects must be achieved.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">A policy of correcting vitamin D deficiency in early pregnancy would be to help the foetus during gestation and following birth. But the initial benefit would be for the prevention of pre-eclampsia. </span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">If the serious illness of pre-eclampsia were to occur and emergency treatment be required, then as with serious Covid-19 pneumonia, vitamin D treatment should be given in its natural activated form 25(OH)D, calcifediol. The reason for this is that, starting from deficiency, vitamin D itself will take about two weeks to reach a good blood level because it must be activated by the liver to 25(OH)D, and this is a slow process. However when 25(OH)D calcifediol itself is given a good level is achieved in two hours. This has been shown to be very effective in the treatment of <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/02/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-success-of.html">serious Covid-19 pneumonia</a>. Could it be of similar dramatic benefit in pre-eclampsia? Clinical observation of this treatment could show a dramatic benefit, far superior to any other treatment.</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><b>Research and action are required.</b></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">The Covid-19 pandemic has brought to attention the importance of vitamin D deficiency and the potential of its correction to help human health and reverse specific conditions associated with reduced immunity and uncontrolled inflammation. This must be taken very seriously and not simply ignored or discarded as has happened during the past year.</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><b>Vitamin D, seasonality, and effects on the offspring</b></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">This will be the subject of a future</span></span><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> Blog post.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Additional information from Bruce Hollis and Carol Wagner</b></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Work undertaken at the Department of child health, University of South Carolina, USA, and published in 2012.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Unfortunately I was unaware of this excellent paper when I first posted this Blog.</span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"></span></span></p><h1 class="content-title" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, clean, sans-serif; font-size: 1.5384em; line-height: 1.35em; margin: 1em 0px 0.5em;">Vitamin D Supplementation during Pregnancy: Double Blind, Randomized Clinical Trial of Safety and Effectiveness</h1><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3183324/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3183324/</a></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">350 pregnant women were given vitamin D 400, 2,000, or 4,000 units daily throughout pregnancy. </span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">Those taking 400units per day, mean blood level at end of pregnancy 78.9 nmol/L (31.6ng/ml)</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">Those taking 2,000units per day, mean blood level at end of pregnancy 98.3 nmol/L (39.3ng/ml)</span></span></p><div><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">Those taking 4,000units per day, mean blood level at end of pregnancy 111.0 nmol/L (44.4ng/ml)</span></span></div><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);">Vitamin D 4,000 units per day was most effective in achieving a good blood level with no indication of excess.</span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #373d3f; font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33);"><br /></span></span></p><p style="color: #0f0f0f; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><div class="doi" data-original-font-size="11" data-original-line-height="15" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #212121; line-height: 15px; white-space: break-spaces;"></div><div class="doi" data-original-font-size="11" data-original-line-height="15" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: #212121; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 15px; white-space: break-spaces;"><br /></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p style="color: #0f0f0f; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: #f0f0f0; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Merriweather, serif; font-size: 16px; text-align: justify;"><br /></span></p><p style="color: #0f0f0f; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: #f0f0f0; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Merriweather, serif; font-size: 16px; text-align: justify;"><br /></span></p><p style="color: #0f0f0f; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: #f0f0f0; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Merriweather, serif; font-size: 16px; text-align: justify;"><br /></span></p></div><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-68242388206888578432021-04-29T04:04:00.000-07:002021-04-29T04:04:44.146-07:00Covid-19 & Vitamin D: There is no African Paradox<p><b style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">There is no African Paradox</span></b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKkD5CoIHs8hW6upt9KXgRTeWSvzG-o1agGne-ULUuPg_R-Dk-Wke3xFFxwthZtp-Bumegu8pReGuOQsgl4vauWRBAtcLG6wQ0NmCUUcNDDbS-IlyJuJUNMo5W0axuNCKM3QDmy_kFSrry/s1052/Screenshot+2021-04-28+at+19.48.25.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="440" data-original-width="1052" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKkD5CoIHs8hW6upt9KXgRTeWSvzG-o1agGne-ULUuPg_R-Dk-Wke3xFFxwthZtp-Bumegu8pReGuOQsgl4vauWRBAtcLG6wQ0NmCUUcNDDbS-IlyJuJUNMo5W0axuNCKM3QDmy_kFSrry/w400-h168/Screenshot+2021-04-28+at+19.48.25.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A paradox is an observation that does not fit into the world as we understand it. It is the departure from a paradigm, the accepted wisdom of the way in which the world works.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">But a paradox is the stimulus for change. If the paradox is true then it means that the paradigm must change: our understanding of the way the world works must also change. This is the way that science progresses, in big leaps but not very often.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The example of combustion</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The memorable example from the wonderful Age of Enlightenment concerns the understanding of combustion. The paradigm of the time was that the process of combustion involved the release of Phlogiston from the burning substance as</span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> heat and light. Phlogiston was regard as</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> a natural component of all substances. This paradigm had worked well and everyone was happy, until Joseph Priestley in Yorkshire, UK, and </span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">independently Antoine Lavoisier in Paris, investigated combustion from the scientific viewpoint. Science means measurement, and they studied the weights of solids and the volumes of gases. They demonstrated that the products of combustion of a metallic element had a greater mass that the original. If combustion was the loss of phlogiston, how could mass increase? It was suggested that phlogiston might have negative weight, but stretched credibility too far even at that time. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">They also noted that when combustion occurred and the weight of the solid increased, the volume of the enclosed air decreased. This was logically the result of consumption of a component of the air, what became known as oxygen (initially called "dephlogisticated air"). Priestley was reluctant to abandon the phlogiston hypothesis but Lavoisier was much more open-minded: the paradigm of combustion changed from phlogiston to oxygenation.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVQ5LTm3aLTI5YRjfOsfKN1MYC1l4ULkuyBO9LH7xvdOy7fZXyXraXEuJ-4ITgb8AMkarrJaSQkSYQzKF0SK5mw9WZKxXKY1PBKqvUpGNvSplq6L5R9snYadAb18XKlO8PAj9v8XLkAVry/s420/Screenshot+2021-04-28+at+21.22.42.png" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="420" data-original-width="382" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVQ5LTm3aLTI5YRjfOsfKN1MYC1l4ULkuyBO9LH7xvdOy7fZXyXraXEuJ-4ITgb8AMkarrJaSQkSYQzKF0SK5mw9WZKxXKY1PBKqvUpGNvSplq6L5R9snYadAb18XKlO8PAj9v8XLkAVry/w182-h200/Screenshot+2021-04-28+at+21.22.42.png" width="182" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Joseph Priestley 1733–1804</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnMKYYBhgXPQtbhmRNM66P1tcMszW_lno0YW8JEmx6qnTBavQh5bnICBV0VIitVI5ZfuI2HmpwwTDrPeIag0-4qKEOqKZpYIcY52sFb03hiLNA-QTkn8xEjTRJamhttgm01LH9PSHN2q4A/s356/Screenshot+2021-04-28+at+21.24.31.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="356" data-original-width="348" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnMKYYBhgXPQtbhmRNM66P1tcMszW_lno0YW8JEmx6qnTBavQh5bnICBV0VIitVI5ZfuI2HmpwwTDrPeIag0-4qKEOqKZpYIcY52sFb03hiLNA-QTkn8xEjTRJamhttgm01LH9PSHN2q4A/w196-h200/Screenshot+2021-04-28+at+21.24.31.png" width="196" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Antoine Lavoisier 1743–1794</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It was the careful and measurable observation of weight gain (and loss of volume of air) during combustion that was the paradox that changed the paradigm. This was a very big leap in understanding.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I emphasise "observation", because it is an important process that has been denigrated during the course of the Covid-19 pandemic in respect of the importance of vitamin D.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>The "African Paradox"</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I recently came across and read a paper entitled "Covid-19 pandemic: the African paradox", in what appeared at first sight to be a reputable journal, the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7506193/">Journal of Global Health</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This paper noted the very low levels of deaths from Covid-19 in Equatorial Africa compared to the temperate zone countries. It tried to explain this phenomenon in a number of unconvincing ways.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The obvious factor of geography was discussed, in relationship to temperature and humidity. However there was no consideration of sun exposure and vitamin D production. It was noted that the risk of Covid-19 death was less at higher altitudes, but no mention was made of greater sun intensity with altitude. I assume that the investigators were completely ignorant of the fundamental importance of the Sun and vitamin D in defensive immunity.</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRKkzYgMjE5NatEd-thEw7i49lW6FWJX5EzLl3jdVSsEl-OvLMzhxTW3NwKk22_TkfNwuM-yCTnOOLofh6oPUZmKwqfrex-sEYuIIQrhFQyXa09wyqfXKAyaKtiy-hd1R4tpPYucvmIYXQ/s898/Screenshot+2021-04-28+at+19.32.23.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="898" data-original-width="326" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRKkzYgMjE5NatEd-thEw7i49lW6FWJX5EzLl3jdVSsEl-OvLMzhxTW3NwKk22_TkfNwuM-yCTnOOLofh6oPUZmKwqfrex-sEYuIIQrhFQyXa09wyqfXKAyaKtiy-hd1R4tpPYucvmIYXQ/w232-h640/Screenshot+2021-04-28+at+19.32.23.png" width="232" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Covid-19 deaths per million population in equatorial African countries, <br />and also UK, USA, and India for comparison.</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The logic is this. A man of ethnic black African origin, perhaps from Uganda but living in the UK has a risk of death from Covid-19 even higher than ethnic white people, with the national average 1,870 per million population. </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But a man ethnically and presumably genetically the same, perhaps his brother, but living in Uganda would face a risk of Covid-19 death of only 7 per million. This is dramatic and requires an explanation. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">It is not skin colour that determines the so-called African paradox.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It has been stated in a UK Biobank study, see <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2021/02/covid-19-vitamin-d-disappearance-of.html">previous Blog post</a>, that ethnic black African people living in the UK have a high death rate from Covid-19 because they are black. And so the very low level of deaths in Uganda and other equatorial African nations compared to the very high levels in the UK, cannot be explained on the basis of skin colour. On this basis they should have the same death rates.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Another <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308">recent paper</a> has investigated the same pattern. It identifies that the incidence of Covid-19 is greater between latitudes 30 and 50 degrees north of the Equator that in the tropics. Air temperature and humidity are discussed but as usual there is no mention of the Sun and vitamin D.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Why are Covid-19 death rates so low in equatorial Africa? This is the alleged paradox: is the understanding wrong? Of course it is. There is a failure to understand some fundamental aspects of geography and human biology. The obvious difference is the country of residence with major differences in sunlight intensity. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The difference could be the result of much greater socio-economic deprivation in the UK and USA compared to all Equatorial African countries, but like the phlogiston theory, it stretches comprehension too far. The difference is most obviously the result of vitamin D deficiency in the UK as the result of geography and the position of the UK closer to the North Pole than to the Equator..</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The tilt of the Earth on its axis determines that in the UK, the vitamin D production season is of only six months duration, but at the equator the season is the full twelve months. However in early August 2020 the Covid-19 deaths in the UK were in single figures, about the same as in equatorial African countries all the year round</span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-large;">.</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL8jljC08WokIlx1kX_pRtIhxdLTw8DSE0DXKgrRpK80Z5HjOTFcCfL1UUpyhhGucPYSBAyO9goTgUW6qDMQ9Ha73YIWZ2xH8xvCaAtagcAJKEFy5xhXsG3Z_7dETYv9K_oYYlK7JF-n3j/s1942/Screenshot+2020-12-31+at+17.50.50.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="704" data-original-width="1942" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL8jljC08WokIlx1kX_pRtIhxdLTw8DSE0DXKgrRpK80Z5HjOTFcCfL1UUpyhhGucPYSBAyO9goTgUW6qDMQ9Ha73YIWZ2xH8xvCaAtagcAJKEFy5xhXsG3Z_7dETYv9K_oYYlK7JF-n3j/w640-h232/Screenshot+2020-12-31+at+17.50.50.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>The vitamin D production season in the UK</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is not just the comparison between deaths in equatorial Africa compared to temperate zone countries that require explanation, but also why there has been such a dramatic seasonal variation in the temperate countries only. Surely something to do with the sun.</span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Why is the importance of the Sun and vitamin D continually ignored when it is so obvious? Could correction of widespread vitamin D deficiency lead to UK health patterns in the winter to be the sam as the summer? Here is a huge opportunity for research, but apart from in the virus and vaccine laboratories, clinical research in the UK seems to be asleep.<br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Natural evolution</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It does not take a high level of education to observe the difference between a December day in the UK at 53 degrees north of the equator, and the same day in Uganda which is on the equator. The difference is the light and heat, the results of intensity of the Sun determined by the elevation of the Sun above the horizon. </span></p><p></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtWJdn8_cEFy_Pr3636_WqhPXo5tCb3Kf17rmcgM5Wh7K-dY8sxpReam3eALJgoER2ZvIeiuXS17eUwI-jMfVgaSvTIQLxJK3ApWsh2GK3s7XWmJ6T4pA3XW3bI42d3H4TCsx_pSb2M-C9/s516/Screenshot+2021-04-29+at+11.30.46.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="338" data-original-width="516" height="131" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtWJdn8_cEFy_Pr3636_WqhPXo5tCb3Kf17rmcgM5Wh7K-dY8sxpReam3eALJgoER2ZvIeiuXS17eUwI-jMfVgaSvTIQLxJK3ApWsh2GK3s7XWmJ6T4pA3XW3bI42d3H4TCsx_pSb2M-C9/w200-h131/Screenshot+2021-04-29+at+11.30.46.png" width="200" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihH3WXu1XvhXyAzE1WcSQyazrl6lVgHzBIxME9WMYBQNdO_VHkOHP0pO9lu4Ny6alaWxZFn11jlZg0Yq2Dy7DVBZab1ZJIdHLOvT72hoLDVgkJe1WHfoVRFVGKIDVqWjb8sJmUfyeCi3OG/s2048/IMG_1503.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihH3WXu1XvhXyAzE1WcSQyazrl6lVgHzBIxME9WMYBQNdO_VHkOHP0pO9lu4Ny6alaWxZFn11jlZg0Yq2Dy7DVBZab1ZJIdHLOvT72hoLDVgkJe1WHfoVRFVGKIDVqWjb8sJmUfyeCi3OG/w200-h150/IMG_1503.jpeg" width="200" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>In the tropics it is summer all the year round, and the elevation of the Sun means that vitamin D can be produced in the skin on every day of the year. This is where evolution led to the appearance Homo sapiens. The great apes have mainly white skin, but extensive body hair protects the skin from the damaging effects of UV from the Sun. Homo sapiens evolved with very little body hair but with a melanin pigment-rich skin to protect against solar UV. It was still possible for vitamin D to be produced from 7-dehydro-cholesterol in the skin in adequate amounts. </span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Studies of the Maasai tribesmen in East Africa have shown them to have an average blood vitamin D level of about 40ng/ml, 100nmol/L. This can be regarded as the ideal as determined by natural evolution. Experience during the Covid-19 pandemic has confirmed that this is ideal, with critical illness and death being extremely rare at and above this blood level. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Migration and Latitude</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">When living in tropical or semi-tropical countries there is an evolutionary advantage of a protective melanin-rich skin. UV from the sun can be very damaging and protection by nature's sunscreen is essential. Although melanin blocks most UV penetration into the skin, adequate blood levels of vitamin D will be produced unless there is extensive covering with clothes. Most of the time spent indoors during the hours of daylight is characteristic of a significant part of the populations, mainly as a result of a move from an agricultural to an office working environment. This can also lead to vitamin D deficiency, There is also the influence of modesty of dress, amplified by religious rules.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Migration of humankind from Africa into northern Europe created an environment in which the summer is short and the sun is relatively low in the sky, with reduced intensity. For people with melanin-rich skin, vitamin D deficiency became very likely with health consequences. Evolution in Europe during thousands of years selected a white skin to have a biological and survival advantage because of better production of vitamin D.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The sub-optimal immunity caused by vitamin D deficiency is a survival disadvantage, but mainly in the older population, and this would not have an influence on the extinction of dark-skinned humans who might have migrated to Northern Europe. However during recent years childhood rickets due to severe vitamin D deficiency (previously a characteristic of the industrial revolution) has been seen in children of parents who had moved to the UK from tropical Africa and the West Indies, and also from South Asia. Rickets is characterised by soft bones, and a result is compression of the pelvic outlet. This can have a devastating effect on young adult females as it will result in obstructed labour, with death of both mother and child in the absence of the advanced maternity care (especially Caesarian section) that we have today. The end of successful reproduction would indeed lead to extinction of those with a high incidence of serious vitamin D deficiency in childhood.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><b>Migration in the 20th and 21st centuries</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The rapid transmigration of many people from tropical Africa, the West Indies, and South Asia during the years since 1950 has brought to attention the health disadvantage of a melanin-rich skin when living closer to the North Pole than to the Equator.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">This has been well-established during these years, but I am both amazed and saddened that the knowledge of it is not wide-spread, even among doctors and other health workers. A higher than average death rate from Covid-19 was completely predictable at the onset of the pandemic and was obvious during its first few weeks. But the importance of vitamin D deficiency in their deaths has been consistently denied.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The UK Standing Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE) is supposed to be composed of the best brains in the nation, but that might not be the case. A comment by SAGE appeared in the national press.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyGd4TRky7mo7WGx0lKym-CS83AX3NHNZxQ1qNaGfMWa4ykUKEX50D5SkHcER5lZ_RnYdBIoGUwyr_l-VWCrPXRXqy_xWfRO0_zAdQdEYxwjTH1sKWqV5mVMB5VBcr2r6QKCLb9sZeoOTb/s1368/Screenshot+2020-10-31+at+15.16.47.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1368" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyGd4TRky7mo7WGx0lKym-CS83AX3NHNZxQ1qNaGfMWa4ykUKEX50D5SkHcER5lZ_RnYdBIoGUwyr_l-VWCrPXRXqy_xWfRO0_zAdQdEYxwjTH1sKWqV5mVMB5VBcr2r6QKCLb9sZeoOTb/w400-h215/Screenshot+2020-10-31+at+15.16.47.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is beyond belief that SAGE could have come to such a conclusion. I have mentioned in <a href="http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-deaths-of-doctors.html">previous posts</a> that 24 out of 25 (96%) of working doctors in the UK who died from Covid-19 between March 23rd and May 2nd 2020 were of Black African or South Asian ethnicity. How has this escaped the attention of national bodies composed of allegedly clever people? If there is a paradox, this is it. </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">To regard vitamin D </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">deficiency as just a "rumour" for excess deaths from Covid-19 among BAME people is an insult, in particular to the 24 ethnic Black African and South Asian doctors who died while working during the pandemic (an additional one was ethnic white). The attitude of SAGE is a disgrace, and I hope that an apology will be forthcoming.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Three UK national committees reported on the high Covid-19 death rate among the ethnic Black African and South Asian groups but failed to mention the deaths of doctors or to consider vitamin D. This failure has led to the deaths of many people. I hope for even more apologies in the near future.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">These reports did not mention the African non-paradox. When trying to reach an important conclusion, it is essential to to use all possible evidence, but this sound advice was not followed. This process is clear from a court of law where evidence must not be with-held, and it should be the same in health issues. However a report, or even alleged "proof", is never a final judgment. As the great economist John Maynard Keynes stated: <i>"When the evidence changes, I change my mind. What do you do, Sir?"</i> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The past year has seen an enormous amount of evidence to support the correction of vitamin D deficiency in our defence against Covid-19, but government advisors have shown no sign of absorbing this evidence. If only they would listen to the wisdom of Keynes.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The African experience is not a paradox. It shows the importance of the Sun and vitamin D, and it amplifies the serious disadvantage of ethnic African people living in the UK without taking vitamin D to correct an inevitable deficiency. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Ethnic minorities from Africa, the West Indies, and South Asia living in the UK and other temperate zone countries have been failed very seriously by public health authorities by their ignoring of critically important evidence. These ethnic minorities should all be taking vitamin D, and the ideal time to check for deficiency is during pregnancy.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">No child should be born vitamin D deficient. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">No-one should die from Covid-19 when vitamin D deficient. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p></div>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2455967162947276184.post-78121672305961159762021-04-14T03:15:00.001-07:002021-04-14T10:10:37.669-07:00Covid-19 & Vitamin D: One year after the onset<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">We have experienced a year of the Covid-19 pandemic. and now in the UK it is looking very different.</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpo5R1lCOjLGw5UkUgkd-XXspSTZjdiyvtKUOzIq2hruNPJJCdvYR9jWvU93u8WcQ16vIk7w4y_tclY7r-fnS3SzHgz3DsWZRHiFx-pnCJQqtAQ3kjgXV_rKpmXwq73VZz2BojsMcz4XGF/s1514/Screenshot+2021-03-23+at+18.39.57.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="848" data-original-width="1514" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpo5R1lCOjLGw5UkUgkd-XXspSTZjdiyvtKUOzIq2hruNPJJCdvYR9jWvU93u8WcQ16vIk7w4y_tclY7r-fnS3SzHgz3DsWZRHiFx-pnCJQqtAQ3kjgXV_rKpmXwq73VZz2BojsMcz4XGF/w640-h358/Screenshot+2021-03-23+at+18.39.57.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 1. UK: Covid-19 deaths each day, from March 20th 2020</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">On March 10th 2020 the WHO declared a pandemic of Covid-19. It was on March 20th that the pandemic became real in the UK. Deaths had risen to about 50 per day. On March 23rd there had been a total of 258 deaths, and something had to be done. That something was "lockdown", intended to reduce spread of the respiratory virus. Face masks must be worn in public places, and there was to be social distancing with a minimum of two metres between individuals. People could not visit each other's houses. The residents of homes for the elderly or seriously disabled could not be visited by their families. Public events such as concerts and worship were stopped. Universities were closed and then schools. Holidays were cancelled. Elective admissions to hospital for surgery were cancelled. Many workplaces were closed and air travel virtually came to an end. Public transport was strongly discouraged and the roads were very quiet.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">These were physical methods to try to reduce transmission, but respiratory viruses are notoriously difficult to control. Deaths increased to almost 1,000 per day during the following month. We had no natural immunity and our vitamin D reserves were at the lowest part of the annual cycle. It is much easier to control micro-organisms that are transmitted in contaminated water or food, or contagious diseases that are transmitted by direct contact (touch). Air transmission is not visible and not easily controlled. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The introduction of lockdown was not based on evidence as it had never been attempted previously, at least not on a large scale. It seemed to be sensible, given the very limited understanding by the government of the nature of the pandemic. We subsequently entered the summer recess of Covid-19 illness and death during the "vitamin D immunity season". Later in the year when we moved into the "vitamin D deficiency season", further lockdown measures were introduced. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is easy to say that the deaths would have been even higher without lockdown, but we must remember that the UK had about the highest death rate from Covid-19 at that time. Since then the UK has been overtaken by nine European nations with higher numbers of deaths per million.</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAlR2gXwyXZc7phCCf5sEZNxoXzh2taTD2R5G9r9TI3HVC1fYroh1mYtMhXhT1TeFW-MqqlyIljomsCLudfa-VvPc-pQ41erWZOeY0kSIacDcKtNNxXKUth9bKYo4zlD22HKvjZK_pWSPs/s1328/Screenshot+2021-04-01+at+20.32.57.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="906" data-original-width="1328" height="435" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAlR2gXwyXZc7phCCf5sEZNxoXzh2taTD2R5G9r9TI3HVC1fYroh1mYtMhXhT1TeFW-MqqlyIljomsCLudfa-VvPc-pQ41erWZOeY0kSIacDcKtNNxXKUth9bKYo4zlD22HKvjZK_pWSPs/w640-h435/Screenshot+2021-04-01+at+20.32.57.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Figure 2. Covid-19 deaths per million, in European and American nations</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Figure 2 illustrates the 38 nations of the world with more that 1,000 Covid-19 deaths per million. Most are in Europe, with 9 in the Americas. Some of the nations in Europe are very small, Gibraltar, San Marino, and Andorra in particular.</span><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">From late April the daily deaths declined in the UK and other northern hemisphere nations, and this coincided with increasing sun energy each day at sea level, and therefore increasing vitamin D production. It can be said that the weather was warmer but humankind is isothermal. We maintain constant body temperature but the average blood level of vitamin D is much greater in the summer than in the winter. The winter–summer pattern of illness is the same in all temperate zone countries, no matter what the ambient temperature. Vitamin D activates defensive immunity and so it is to be expected that the number of deaths from respiratory infections will reduce during the summer, as happens every year. There are in practice two seasons to the year: the vitamin D immunity season, and the vitamin D deficiency season. This is very obvious in Figure 3, which illustrates the effect of the sun and vitamin D production. </span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdK0TSYS90veWSxIDniij-CZGYoKiGGSOmaba614Z_oEPqDtJbA_FZG9RAN8AuQBRwfvxi64CxoBQ-hbtTlpXEZJ45i28l4Jn1wJRVtKhVcHSQJor4cTFBbfnrMgmDCtRBWRaSRHFw8mAv/s1738/Screenshot+2021-04-08+at+17.31.45.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="902" data-original-width="1738" height="333" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdK0TSYS90veWSxIDniij-CZGYoKiGGSOmaba614Z_oEPqDtJbA_FZG9RAN8AuQBRwfvxi64CxoBQ-hbtTlpXEZJ45i28l4Jn1wJRVtKhVcHSQJor4cTFBbfnrMgmDCtRBWRaSRHFw8mAv/w640-h333/Screenshot+2021-04-08+at+17.31.45.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Figure 3. UK: Covid-19 deaths each day, from March 20th 2020</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><br /></span><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The decline in case and death numbers continued into the summer as vitamin D production increased, and blood levels of 25(OH)D, calcifediol, the reserve supply also increased. And then of course, as reserves fell when we entered the vitamin D deficiency season, deaths form Covid-19 increased again.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It is interesting to note that we were warned early in 2020 that it would become so much worse in the autumn as there would be an additive effect of the influenza virus. This showed a fundamental lack of medical education, a phenomenon that I learned when I was at Manchester University in 1964. Observation (that important scientific process that in 2020 was rejected in respect of vitamin D) demonstrated that simultaneous virus infections generally do not occur. A virus is greedy: it does not want to share the infection with a competitor. Covid-19 had an advantage in 2020 in that the human host had not encountered it previously and therefore humankind had no immunity. Covid-19 rapidly established respiratory infection, and in the usual way it programmed its infected cells to produce Interferon. This prevented infection by other viruses. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">And that is what happened: during the autumn of 2020 the usual winter viruses failed to appear. There was just Covid-19. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">The increased case and death rate up to the end of 2020 was as expected, but in January there was a sudden peak that has not really been explained. It is shown in Figure 3. Although mutations appear, we were not told of a mutation that would create up to 2,000 deaths per day in January 2021. Many mutations have been described but this is inevitable and there does not seem to have been a rogue mutation. Of course natural immunity optimised by vitamin D would provide defence against all mutations. The reason for the January peak, "the third wave", remains unexplained. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This phenemenon was seen in some other European countries, but not in all. It was obvious in Ireland and Spain. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">This peak, or wave, settled rapidly at the end of January in the UK and these other countries. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></p><span style="font-size: large;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgENktrX7NgeHOTyOvmvyORTiY98CfsmDBCkinopfGZzr0g_FoA147PyWE-P4999-iUeExNpQmtA51-ys8KqOs6a-PsnHY3AHDwrsBQBrfWoySbPXqLkzzzv5dHCNWcShVcnuhXJtJtN7MA/s1428/Ireland+deaths.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="776" data-original-width="1428" height="347" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgENktrX7NgeHOTyOvmvyORTiY98CfsmDBCkinopfGZzr0g_FoA147PyWE-P4999-iUeExNpQmtA51-ys8KqOs6a-PsnHY3AHDwrsBQBrfWoySbPXqLkzzzv5dHCNWcShVcnuhXJtJtN7MA/w640-h347/Ireland+deaths.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 4. Ireland: Covid -19 deaths 2021, showing the January peak (data incomplete).</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-size: large; text-align: left;"></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBc5r6dH8rUwrghlYVETZKJc6yHCPZKouMa1lHjjC2o-ilmLtNON36a8e8lFY29Xz12leSIqSO6TmRbaWphuzt8MRnVaqXM9K_CKNo5h60FKPLdMimytWIJGckvK-_axbq_usfEE_u544n/s1502/Spain+deaths.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="872" data-original-width="1502" height="373" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBc5r6dH8rUwrghlYVETZKJc6yHCPZKouMa1lHjjC2o-ilmLtNON36a8e8lFY29Xz12leSIqSO6TmRbaWphuzt8MRnVaqXM9K_CKNo5h60FKPLdMimytWIJGckvK-_axbq_usfEE_u544n/w640-h373/Spain+deaths.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 5. Spain: Covid -19 deaths 2021, showing the January peak (data incomplete).</span></td></tr></tbody></table></span></td></tr></tbody></table></span><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Andalucía in Spain is particular interesting. When the second wave of Covid-19 was very active in October and November, the regional government introduced in November a policy of providing vitamin D in the activated form calcifediol, 25(OH)D, to elderly people. This policy was followed by a dramatic reduction of deaths during December, which I referred to as the "Andalucía miracle" whether the result of intervention by vitamin D or by God. At the end of December vaccine provision was added to the vitamin D initiative. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKi1m_t8oL5NTIGsEfbkMCVkLZgZyRLJxThfBhyGm1tGtZi4qQY3gvFgWngm3-ddCjvHZRAU-2i3NsfgizaG7W8GKtE-oCDI8ECEByCJVT8fnCGCeEWi-PQScG5qY0VfMTGB5eZNB6irZA/s1430/Screenshot+2021-03-23+at+20.52.06.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="618" data-original-width="1430" height="277" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKi1m_t8oL5NTIGsEfbkMCVkLZgZyRLJxThfBhyGm1tGtZi4qQY3gvFgWngm3-ddCjvHZRAU-2i3NsfgizaG7W8GKtE-oCDI8ECEByCJVT8fnCGCeEWi-PQScG5qY0VfMTGB5eZNB6irZA/w640-h277/Screenshot+2021-03-23+at+20.52.06.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 6. Andalucía: Covid -19 deaths 2020-21, showing the three peaks.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But as we can seen in Figure 6, in January the decrease in deaths was suddenly reversed. There was a rapid increase in cases, hospital admission, and deaths from Covid-19. A third peak was reached and then a rapid decline, that is very obvious from daily numbers.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">After one of the highest Covid-19 death rates in the world, the UK now finds itself in an excellent position. The UK now appears to be close to the end of the pandemic. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglLtvVEqIsGDDZlX7TSm_PeQafptkX9ZQGL8McuhJvr5vopJTL3ZFJYSKveNwkF_WrANKKshyphenhyphenKP6ZbrsFpQXwebTo9-qo9xkxP2gySriWnkeEUMRBRpSA7kp3nrETj42iNigWiIPIkbLfn/s1104/Screenshot+2021-04-14+at+10.50.45.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1104" height="478" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglLtvVEqIsGDDZlX7TSm_PeQafptkX9ZQGL8McuhJvr5vopJTL3ZFJYSKveNwkF_WrANKKshyphenhyphenKP6ZbrsFpQXwebTo9-qo9xkxP2gySriWnkeEUMRBRpSA7kp3nrETj42iNigWiIPIkbLfn/w640-h478/Screenshot+2021-04-14+at+10.50.45.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 7. UK: Covid -19 cases per day March-April 2020 & 2021</span></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The very low number of death each day now, in early April 2021, is very different what was happening this time a year ago. The trajectory is downwards in 2021.</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis90VtcXkS_RxAbP94CTiudcGLwiIt12sH2Tq24pKmsNdhyphenhyphen5dCuh1ZPBAROIqGxLOoTOYidY-HkF4nKkzIQbkJdVZNhvhht4NpQC0ryg6XLHNY5TlynkKJqDe0nbjsn8A6F9YvXXLI7I4v/s1104/UK+Deaths.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1104" height="478" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis90VtcXkS_RxAbP94CTiudcGLwiIt12sH2Tq24pKmsNdhyphenhyphen5dCuh1ZPBAROIqGxLOoTOYidY-HkF4nKkzIQbkJdVZNhvhht4NpQC0ryg6XLHNY5TlynkKJqDe0nbjsn8A6F9YvXXLI7I4v/w640-h478/UK+Deaths.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 8. UK: Covid -19 deaths each day March-April, 2020 & 2021</span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large; text-align: left;"></span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The difference from 2020 to 2021 is the result of a high level of herd immunity within the nation. It is not that the virus has "gone away", as viruses do not go away. The clinical effects of the virus might "go away" but this is because of herd immunity. It has always been the same.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A recent report (March 30th 2021) from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) informs us that more than half the population have antibodies to Covid-19. How many of these had an illness and how many had received the vaccine were not disclosed. About half the population had received a vaccine during the very extensive vaccination programme, and the number taking vitamin D had increased greatly, but without any national counting. It is suggested that vitamin D consumption has increased by a factor of perhaps 13. On the day of the ONS report Morrison's Supermarket had sold out and further supplies were only on order.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There continues with no official mention of </span><span style="font-family: arial;">vitamin D</span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">. There has been the accumulation of a great deal of knowledge concerning the extent of vitamin D deficiency and the great disadvantage of this when ill with Covid-19, with high risk of critical illness or death. But clinical medicine in the UK remains silent. An as yet unpublished study from Tameside, UK, indicates that 70% of individual doctors would take, prescribe, and advise vitamin D, but this was part of a large grass-roots movement, not officially sanctioned and not measured.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There has been a reduction on the number of Covid-19 cases and deaths in many European countries, but none as dramatic as the UK. The UK has a higher rate of vaccinations than other countries. I display in the figures the deaths per day, but the "cases" (less easily defined) show the same patterns but with larger numbers. The nations are not complete but those that have interested me during the past year.</span></p><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis3B1atcMc0cmsCUprZke4t2GVTNYxVqSwlIRszVvDPl3z9fkxOsg1ZjnR9KKbUx5XGTw147bpSjvz0qZAzxR7hO9KEv6tLNGXuDuaf4ZZYAWd0Zd7imSTi8tedZZ6hmoMHzVS-1pJ3oRr/s1438/Switzerland+deaths.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1438" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis3B1atcMc0cmsCUprZke4t2GVTNYxVqSwlIRszVvDPl3z9fkxOsg1ZjnR9KKbUx5XGTw147bpSjvz0qZAzxR7hO9KEv6tLNGXuDuaf4ZZYAWd0Zd7imSTi8tedZZ6hmoMHzVS-1pJ3oRr/w640-h354/Switzerland+deaths.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 9. Switzerland: Covid -19 deaths 2021, showing the January peak </span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">and subsequent decline</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwosBtL4QQ7vRTULYp1PITvQd21OLayBgB2d8DEDnb3FxC2wp2i3ifBG2pgjh26fhOrPs7uo7ITrkrtLuUuGiDce2KegQiq2RkrJEf3g-TxnD2Ty53FfUXMaPbMw6JuZ5Hjez-PhpnL99a/s1474/Austria+deaths.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="840" data-original-width="1474" height="365" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwosBtL4QQ7vRTULYp1PITvQd21OLayBgB2d8DEDnb3FxC2wp2i3ifBG2pgjh26fhOrPs7uo7ITrkrtLuUuGiDce2KegQiq2RkrJEf3g-TxnD2Ty53FfUXMaPbMw6JuZ5Hjez-PhpnL99a/w640-h365/Austria+deaths.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 10. Austria: Covid -19 deaths 2021, showing the January peak </span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">and subsequent but incomplete decline</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh15P8UyKRfLgqhr3vLbe-CUFCaDxcgV039yULLCAK_yM2HLxTcZznmA3SSxuh8jHp0HeQ4PQE_KXIbDOdocbPoQpI1AhzDPMA6JhmH-uO9vEFtMrtALXBN7rAL7WvT2eQWBtbQfqCahsWL/s1474/Germany+deaths.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="840" data-original-width="1474" height="365" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh15P8UyKRfLgqhr3vLbe-CUFCaDxcgV039yULLCAK_yM2HLxTcZznmA3SSxuh8jHp0HeQ4PQE_KXIbDOdocbPoQpI1AhzDPMA6JhmH-uO9vEFtMrtALXBN7rAL7WvT2eQWBtbQfqCahsWL/w640-h365/Germany+deaths.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 11. Germany: Covid -19 deaths 2021, showing the January peak </span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">and subsequent decline<br /><br /></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUstggmPiko0nIP7B5dq6HzSmm_BG7ZxAF80Eyk9gnqVAmVArmVO3dV7MwD0qWu-xxonJPKIh5-FrU8cl0N0Gb3P76NncWyXkWEn7F3QIqyfQe6yYpFPkNy3JvZXttYUDT0JcHx9FD6Qlq/s1476/Netherlands+deaths.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1476" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUstggmPiko0nIP7B5dq6HzSmm_BG7ZxAF80Eyk9gnqVAmVArmVO3dV7MwD0qWu-xxonJPKIh5-FrU8cl0N0Gb3P76NncWyXkWEn7F3QIqyfQe6yYpFPkNy3JvZXttYUDT0JcHx9FD6Qlq/w640-h358/Netherlands+deaths.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 12. Netherlands: Covid -19 deaths 2021, showing the January peak </span><br style="font-family: arial;" /><span style="font-family: arial;">and subsequent decline</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><br /></p><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">However the decline is not yet apparent in some other European countries. </span></p><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcIRK0_DJ0SWYODQJvJqSukhV-8cDfBg3LTyfgWMIKW_vRUK7k355xYkf1jFqYjqMH3fZiJ-uOXnHeKMJnsyPmIs-kG1YhyN-mRd-R9c1eXH3xFB85R3tbJ7t4BxOOtJfEyrTN2B8FX9nz/s1478/France+deaths.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="782" data-original-width="1478" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcIRK0_DJ0SWYODQJvJqSukhV-8cDfBg3LTyfgWMIKW_vRUK7k355xYkf1jFqYjqMH3fZiJ-uOXnHeKMJnsyPmIs-kG1YhyN-mRd-R9c1eXH3xFB85R3tbJ7t4BxOOtJfEyrTN2B8FX9nz/w640-h338/France+deaths.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 13. France: Covid -19 deaths 2021 (data incomplete)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo__jv0wx8gdwQnCtqA44WASiNOR6EHzDukGZC_N-tYLwCcrpa-TVpLjbDiSw3MocglBdITDV_v-fr4jo8OQPdqaRgiqYepo-8cCUqFUbHk0Dvdg9pV4bWPmVlscL6TB8JjQ1cdzgGQ8xg/s1438/Belgium+deaths.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1438" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo__jv0wx8gdwQnCtqA44WASiNOR6EHzDukGZC_N-tYLwCcrpa-TVpLjbDiSw3MocglBdITDV_v-fr4jo8OQPdqaRgiqYepo-8cCUqFUbHk0Dvdg9pV4bWPmVlscL6TB8JjQ1cdzgGQ8xg/w640-h354/Belgium+deaths.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 14. Belgium: Covid -19 deaths 2021 </span></td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhq0HkiYIe193mLEGymgNI_XqHAiCvKlGu9hMaCERBGSkbOOCW-aNrsBhqCqraobveyyrFdwDJZmdi_MZz7FyW91zAjqGyGgoHzaaElSAsBCCs8oIEGjQLa-yNqHW1HYnkoZvMRKBhdRmJw/s1524/Italy+deaths.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="776" data-original-width="1524" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhq0HkiYIe193mLEGymgNI_XqHAiCvKlGu9hMaCERBGSkbOOCW-aNrsBhqCqraobveyyrFdwDJZmdi_MZz7FyW91zAjqGyGgoHzaaElSAsBCCs8oIEGjQLa-yNqHW1HYnkoZvMRKBhdRmJw/w640-h326/Italy+deaths.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 15. Italy: Covid -19 deaths 2021 </span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVa-Pb0uPr4i7E2AbKogqv4NfTKY6PaEgmCB28mL_EZzRafNdmFImQPFAEBmV0CCFVD6mmTvNRvRvFtO4DI6HS9NJshtVXb3ZaaaD_C0Ho5h6y0aoGGMXJthpeLhIdsLFcWLTcgyBXaFIe/s1510/Screenshot+2021-04-14+at+17.58.51.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="1510" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVa-Pb0uPr4i7E2AbKogqv4NfTKY6PaEgmCB28mL_EZzRafNdmFImQPFAEBmV0CCFVD6mmTvNRvRvFtO4DI6HS9NJshtVXb3ZaaaD_C0Ho5h6y0aoGGMXJthpeLhIdsLFcWLTcgyBXaFIe/w640-h312/Screenshot+2021-04-14+at+17.58.51.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 16. Sweden: Covid -19 deaths 2021 (data incomplete, numbers are very low)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><br /></div><br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg847ZTmJvezBXlwUEnqrZecFg2RYf_Wj72uP2zNrv4HBsDMHHDqF662NjlYv9Om8IWSl8zxNUa7capV8lbRrOfUSr3AxX6wFTUCwnV8__yxLcuY5I8e5AdXHp3oKF9mbIKLq2D9BnWkYK7/s1526/Poland+deaths.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="822" data-original-width="1526" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg847ZTmJvezBXlwUEnqrZecFg2RYf_Wj72uP2zNrv4HBsDMHHDqF662NjlYv9Om8IWSl8zxNUa7capV8lbRrOfUSr3AxX6wFTUCwnV8__yxLcuY5I8e5AdXHp3oKF9mbIKLq2D9BnWkYK7/w640-h344/Poland+deaths.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 17. Poland: Covid -19 deaths 2021 </span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">These are examples of the experience of several European countries but not all. Some are approaching the end of the pandemic, and it is hoped that the others will follow shortly. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">It can be anticipated that during May 2021, as in May 2020, cases and death numbers will fall thought the vitamin D production season. If there is widespread immunity, the increase in the winter will be minimal.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Deaths have also been falling in North America.</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcwQpzdQhC2IbMvoKs6vRAthwOwYkS-NQwEJy0ZAO1M_qwUMqfPWrw63z_c0PP4Q6TCnUasXpErdJaTI8tXEd_r9jULKCJmwbSGsbQP4uozqUleXFUKIkmFjvFJlkozTu2wry16F4scUvK/s1452/Canada+deaths.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="802" data-original-width="1452" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcwQpzdQhC2IbMvoKs6vRAthwOwYkS-NQwEJy0ZAO1M_qwUMqfPWrw63z_c0PP4Q6TCnUasXpErdJaTI8tXEd_r9jULKCJmwbSGsbQP4uozqUleXFUKIkmFjvFJlkozTu2wry16F4scUvK/w640-h354/Canada+deaths.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 18, Canada: Covid -19 deaths 2021 <br /><br /></span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuRzhpnK3yeN_2TrdYFIAE361mzq6y8JN_lhpF3W4HfJaPv_BIYB5SzUEYidK3t-Bm9mo7sReh5EgtvFjt87V75x3K3bDh-QthZNJe-PWrM1DddOUacNXM0ml-xE2ZlRMQ7XEnZ3ifF9v-/s1520/USA+deaths.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="862" data-original-width="1520" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuRzhpnK3yeN_2TrdYFIAE361mzq6y8JN_lhpF3W4HfJaPv_BIYB5SzUEYidK3t-Bm9mo7sReh5EgtvFjt87V75x3K3bDh-QthZNJe-PWrM1DddOUacNXM0ml-xE2ZlRMQ7XEnZ3ifF9v-/w640-h362/USA+deaths.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Figure 19. USA: Covid -19 deaths 2021 </span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">What has been happening in tropical countries will be the subject of future post.</span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /><span><br /></span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /></div>David Grimeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12985177421470200457noreply@blogger.com17