Encouraged by the very positive result of the RCT of vitamin D as Calcifediol in the treatment of Covid-19 pneumonia, and evidence of benefit of vitamin D many reports, the public health authorities in Andalucía decided to take action.
The Covid-19 hospital admission rates, ICU admission rates, and death rates had risen during the early winter, as expected following the summer suppression effect as seen in other European countries. The rates had appeared to have reached, or were close to, the winter peak and so this was the ideal time to initiate correction of widespread vitamin D deficiency as a preventative measure. This was not to be a clinical trial: the time for such had passed. A randomised trial would have involved much planning and bureaucracy, and most importantly it would have put a large control group of people at risk from being deprived of the expected benefits of vitamin D. Would people allocated not to receive vitamin D obey this restriction?
The number of deaths each day had increased during October and November and a high number of deaths would be expected through the winter until the spring equinox, after which deaths per day would reduce as in 2020. In biological and solar respects we have just two seasons of the year, summer and winter, separated by the spring and autumn equinoxes. In the summer vitamin D is produced and domestic solar energy is produced, but not significantly in the winter.
Previous Blog posts have described the very successful randomised controlled trial of Calcifediol, the rapidly acting 25(OH)-vitamin D, that took place in Córdoba, in Andalucía, southern Spain. The result was a 96% efficacy in the reduction of need for ICU transfer. In that in the control group, 2 of the 13 transferred to the ICU died, a reduction of the number of transfers from 50% to 2% would inevitably have led to a reduction in the number of deaths by more than 96%.
This and other aspects of the role of vitamin D deficiency in serious outcome from Covid-19 led in Andalucía to a scientific assessment and report. We have seen superficial and poor quality assessment in the UK by NICE, and a very detailed analysis by a team in the MIT, which indicated the clinical trial in Córdoba to be without significant procedural error and with a less than a million to one probability of the findings being by chance.The scientific report was viewed by the regional government in Andalucía on November 8th. It was accepted that vitamin D has a major influence on Covid-19 infection and that by enhancing defensive immunity it makes a major contribution to minimising the damaging and fatal effects of Covid-19. The instruction was for doctors treating Covid-19 patients to prescribe vitamin D as calcifediol, and for it to be issued to elderly residents of care homes. Vitamin D would be actively encouraged in others.
During December a miracle occurred in Andalucía. The number of deaths per day dropped dramatically, against the experience of nature. Perhaps it was due to the favourable influence of God. On the other hand it might have been the result of the vitamin D initiative, which in an immunological way would convert the winter into summer.
The reduction of Covid-19 effects can be seen in the following figures, taken from the Andalucía website.
We can see in Figure 1 the rapid increase in hospital admissions at the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 and then the rapid decline in April. There was a very low number of hospital admissions during the summer months, under the influence of the sun and the production of vitamin D. With the end of the summer, the number of hospitals admissions increased again to 300 per day in November.
On November 8th the directive went out for vitamin D to be used for prevention and the remarkable decline in hospital admissions during December is clearly visible.
Figure 1. Andalucía: Hospital admissions each day
The pattern of admissions to intensive care units was of the same pattern, shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Andalucía: ICU admissions each day
And in Figure 3 we see the dramatic effect on deaths, falling from 60 per day to 3 per day.
Figure 3. Andalucía: Deaths each day
Figure 4, below, concentrates on the time after November 1st. The effect of the vitamin D initiative is clear.
|Figure 4. Andalucía: Deaths each day, November 2020 to January 2021|
Meanwhile, in the UK the number of deaths continued to increase to about 1,000 per day.
The message is clear. If we want to bring this pandemic to an end we must optimise defensive immunity. To achieve this we must correct widespread vitamin D deficiency. Vitamin D 4,000 units daily is safe and will be appropriate for prevention in most people. If there is a sense of urgency, if a person is ill with Covid-19 respiratory disease, then it is necessary to follow the protocol used Andalucia and use Calcifediol.
Figure 5. Increase in blood level of calcifediol after oral vitamin D, various regimens
Figure 6. Blood levels of calcifediol after calcifediol by mouth or injection
5mcg vitamin D = 200 units gives 1mcg calcifediol
To create 250mcg calcifediol requires:
250 x 200 units of vitamin D = 50,000 units vitamin D.