The Covid-19 pandemic has been in progress for a little more than two years, but daily Covid-19 records are still being broken, as in this report from England, similar from Scotland. Why has it not settled? For how much longer will case numbers increase and records be broken?When the pandemic of Covid-19 emerged in early 2020, the plan of governments collectively (following directives from the WHO) was that the answer must be "vaccinations" (strictly m-RNA injections), which were to be manufatcured as a matter of urgency for the world, and with a great deal of financial support from governments. The introduction of vaccines was anticipated to be at the end of 2020 (at least in the wealthy nations that could afford the vaccines) with the pandemic coming to an end during 2021.
While waiting for the vaccines to become available, people diagnosed with Covid-19 were given no treatment and clinical doctors were not allowed to give treatments which could have helped, including VItamin D (especially in its activated form Calcifediol), Hydroxychloroquine, Ivermectin, Beclomethasone aerosol, Vitamin C, and Zinc. People diagnosed with Covid-19 were told to go home, and then to go to hospital if they had difficulty in breathing. It was a disgrace.
It was promised that vaccinations would end the pandemic, but this did not happen. Something went wrong. In all countries we find similar patterns of the pandemic not settling, and on the contrary case numbers are increasing in multiple peaks, by a factor of up to one thousand.
There are more cases in 2022
Covid-19 cases per day were higher in the first quarter of 2022 than in the same month in 2021 (Figure 1, below). During March 2021 case numbers were decreasing, but this is not happening in 2022.
We have seen during the previous two years that case numbers fell during the Vitamin D production season of May to August. This should happen again in 2022 but we cannot make any clear predictions.
Many governments have abandoned policies such as mask-wearing, social distancing, and lockdown. Schools and work are now back to normal. For a change in policy at a time of the highest case-rates compared to previous years indicates that governments have abandoned such policies because they have been of no obvious benefit – but of course they have been very damaging to education and the economy, and to many individuals. There will of course be no apology for failure and further vaccinations are being encouraged.
The pattern of Covid-19 is obvious not just in the UK but in many other countries. There have been several peaks that were not predicted and which are not readily explained, but we can recognise that each peak is higher than the one before.
We can look for example at the past three years in the UK, remembering that it was only in March 2020 that the pandemic emerged. At that time there was major concern, and we were subjected to almost total lockdown. But we can compare cases per day in 2020 (blue) with what happened subsequently in 2021 (green) and 2022 (grey). In retrospect the experience of 2020 appears to be quite trivial.
|Figure 1. UK Covid-19 cases per day in 2020, 2021, 2022|
It is strange and certainly unexpected that the number of Covid-19 cases per day is so much higher in 2022 than in 2021. It was anticipated that the vaccination programmes during 2021 would have brought the pandemic to an end. But it has not happened, and the pandemic has become worse.
The pattern of Covid-19 is obvious not just in the UK but in many other countries. There has been a series of peaks that were not predicted and which are not readily explained. But we can recognise that succeeding peaks have been progressively higher.
My previous reports have displayed bar-charts (such as Figure 1) that I have constructed from data displayed daily on "worldometer". However several countries, including the UK, have stopped reporting numbers regularly, and some cases altogether. Even with the UK our Covid-19 case numbers and death numbers are no longer displayed each day, and to find the numbers involves searches from a variety of sites.
However "ourworldindata" continues to supply daily Covid-19 data from around the world, but usually after a few days delay. I will show graphs from this source.
To understand (or try to understand) what is happening in the Covid-19 pandemic, let us look at Israel as another example. This is about the earliest and most completely vaccinated nation.
First we can see in Figure 2 the first four peaks that occured during 2020 and 2021, and these caused great concern. The head of Pfizer, as a child a survivor of the Holocaust, had promised Israel to be the recipient of the first Pfizer vaccines (and unknowingly the subjects of post-marketing surveillance). The failure of vaccinations to stop the pandemic was not encouraging, but successive vaccination programmes continued.
The first four waves are obvious, two in 2020 and two in 2021.
|Figure 2. Israel Covid-19 cases 2020 and 2021|
But the pandemic waves in 2020 (maximum 6,000 cases per day) and in 2021 (maximum 10,000 cases per day) became less significant when we moved into 2022. The case number hit a maximum of 100,000 per day, ten times the experience of 2021. What has been going wrong? What will happen next?
|Figure 3. Israel Covid-19 cases 2020, 2021 and 2022|
|Figure 4. Japan Covid-19 cases 2020 and 2021|
And then an enoromous sixth wave in 2022, maximum 94,000 cases per day. What will happen in the near future is impossible to predict.
|Figure 5. Japan Covid-19 cases 2020, 2021 and 2022|
|Figure 6. Germany Covid-19 cases 2020 and 2021|
But then in 2022 a sixth wave with more than 200,000 cases per day. This peak is stubbornly persistent and in early April it is still increasing.
|Figure 8. New Zealand Covid-19 cases 2020, 2021|
But these peaks and numbers are of little significance when we see the current peak in March 2022. New Zealand is now experiencing 20,000 new cases each day. Something has gone seriously wrong, and a one hundred-fold increase in cases per day was completely unexpected. Despite this the end of lockdown enforcement is under way.
|Figure 11. South Korea Covid-19 cases 2020, 2021 and 2022|
But in the early Spring of 2022 the numbers increased dramatically, to an astonishing maximum of 400,000 cases per day. Why did this happen following an extensive vaccination programme?