Saturday, 11 September 2021

Covid-19 & Vitamin D : "How do we get out of this mess?"

 "How do we get out of this mess?"


Scene: 10 Downing Street, Prime Minister’s office.


PM – UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson


Well, er, thanks you for coming in to se me today


PV – Sir Patrick Vallance, Chief Scientist


It is always a great pleasure to see you Prime Minister..


CW – Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer


Yes, and also a great honour.


Prime Minister

Well, thank you. But today we have a very serious problem. It looks as though we are in a bit of a mess.


Patrick Vallance

Really, PM. I thought the vaccination programme had gone really well with most adults being vaccinated.


Prime Minister

Well, yes. But it does not seem to be working.


Chris Whitty

What, Prime Minister? The vaccines are not working?


Prime Minister

That is the view of many Members of Pariament who have been contacting me, and also some newspaper editors.


Patrick Vallance

They can’t really mean it. If this news were to be broadcast they would be no end of disruption. There would be a riot.


Prime Minister

They have spoken me very confidentially and no news of this sort has been issued. But they point out to me that despite all the work of our mathematician advisors, the numbers are not going down as they should and are in fact going up!


Chris Whitty

What do you mean Prime Minister?


Prime Minister

To put it simply, they tell me that there have been more Covid-19 cases and deaths in 2021 than in 2020. They expected that the vaccination programme would have made the pandemic better, not worse. Patrick, please tell me precisely what is happening out there.


Patrick Vallance

It is all very difficult, Prime Minister.


Prime Minister

I want you to explain it to me in clear and simple terms.


Patrick Vallance

Well yes, there have been more Covid-19 cases and deaths in 2021 than in 2020. The Worldometer data informs everyone that we have just passed 7 million cases. In 2020 there we had about 2.5 million cases, but this year we have had 4.5 million cases –


Prime Minister

This is terrible, and it is only early September! Is it going to go away or is it going to get even worse?


Patrick Vallance

We hope that the pandemic will come to an end, but the mathematicians think that there might be another peak.


Prime Minister 

They always say that there is going to be another peak but I suspect that they have no real idea. They have got it so wrong previously, predicting major epidemics that did not happen. We might as well appoint a government Chief Astrologer as ask the mathematicians what will happen in the future.


Chris Whitty

I agree, Prime Minister.  The leaders of the medical professional organisations have no confidence in the mathematical projections and are fed up with covering up for what is going wrong.


Prime Minister

We must give a  positive impression to the public, no matter how negative the news. At a time like this we could do with Dom. He would be able to spin the bad news to make it look good, with a quick catch-phrase.


Patrick Vallance

We must continue the policy of vaccinating the entire population, with comprehensive vaccination of all young people in secondary schools, and as soon  possible those in primary schools.


Prime Minister

Well said. This will be a positive step which might keep bad news out of the headlines.


Chris Whitty

There is a problem with vaccinating children in that doctors are very unhappy about it, especially paediatricians. They are very concerned about the known side-effect of myocraditis, heart damage, and even more about unknown side-effects in the future.


Prime Minister

But the paediatricians do not see the big picture, and that is our responsibility. We must stop Covid-19 now. The future is less important than the present, and the future will be somebody else’s problem, not our's. Did the clinical trials not show that the vaccines are very effective and very safe?


Patrick Vallance

Yes, but there has been a re-analysis of the data. The vaccines did show a reduction of Covid-19 cases, but when all illness were put together, the subjects vaccinated were at a slight disadvantage. It is possible that in young people disadvantages outweigh benefits to the individual.


Prime Minister

We must keep that quiet. I have not heard of it in the newspapers. We must emphasise benefits to the population at large rather than to an individual. It is the duty of people to be vaccinated. But my MPs are telling me that there are reports that most of the Covid-19 cases and deaths are in people who have been vaccinated.


Chris Whitty

That is true, but only in very recent studies. If we look at the first six months of this year, we find that most cases and deaths are in the non-vaccinated. This is obvious because so few people had been vaccinated early in the year. Using the old data in the USA has enabled there to be continuing reports of a pandemic of the unvaccinated.


Patrick Vallance

Yes, that is a clever spin, as during the early part of the year not many people had been vaccinated and so they inevitably made up the majority of cases and deaths. 


Prime Minister

This is the line that we must take. 


Patrick Vallance

Yes, and it is going well. The press have been very helpful. I noted a headline in the Guardian on September 14th that  informs its readers that only 1.2% of those dying from Covid-19 had been fully vaccinated. It was in smaller print that it was revealed that the data were from January to July when initially very few if any people had been double vaccinated, in fact virtually no-one before the end of March.


Chris Whitty

The other point is that there was a very large number of deaths from Covid-19 in January and February, about 1,000 each day, and at that time vaccination rates were very low, with large numbers of non-vaccinated people dying. In the early summer death numbers were very few, just single figures each day in May and June, with very little influence on the six month total. 


Prime Minister

I hope we will be able to suppress the very recent data. I am told that August data will show a very different and much higher proportion of double vaccinated people dying from Covid-19.


Chris Whitty

I doubt if we will be able to keep the recent data hidden from the public for long, Prime Minister. The data are on the Worldometer and Our World in Data every day, and these websites are closely followed.


Prime Minister

Yes, there are too many amateur epidemiologists.


Chris Whitty

Many people follow me on Twitter. On August 20th I tweeted: “Four weeks working on a Covid ward makes stark the reality that the majority of our hospitalised Covid patients are unvaccinated and regret delaying. Some are very sick including young adults. Please don’t delay your vaccine”.


Prime Minister

Very good Chris. That is excellent. I hope many people have re-tweeted it. But I hear that the majority of Covid cases and deaths are now in people double vaccinated. Perhaps your information is out of date.


Patrick Vallance

Recent data is that most of those with Covid-19 are fully double-vaccinated. The numbers published by Public Health England are that up to August 15th, of Covid-19 hospital admissions in those over the age of 50, 31% were unvaccinated, 10% single vaccination, 58% double vaccinated.

When it comes to deaths there is a very similar picture. Just 30% unvaccinated, 9% single vaccination, 61% double vaccination.


Prime Minister

Gosh, that is terrible news. Are the vaccines really helping? What about those below the age of 50?


Patrick Vallance

Better news. With hospital admissions 74% unvaccinated, 15% single vaccination, 9% double vaccination. With deaths, 64% unvaccinated, 10% single and 24% double vaccinated.


Prime Minister

That is much better. Well we must concentrate on these numbers for the younger age groups so as to encourage more vaccinations. However, we must be aware of what I am being told about the pandemic getting completely out of hand, mainly in the far East.


Chris Whitty

People are becoming aware about what is happening in Israel. Although it is about the first and the most vaccinated nation in the world, there is now an increasing peak of cases and deaths almost entirely among the double vaccinated. People are very alarmed. In fact during the past week the number of vaccinations per day has gone down my more than a half. 


Prime Minister

Perhaps people in Israel are starting to suspect that vaccinations are more of a problem than a help.


Patrick Vallance

But the goverment of Israel is proposing booster vaccinations as soon as possible. Also there is a major peak in Japan, even more dramatic than in Israel.


Prime Minister

I had also heard about Israel, and that the proposal is for extensive third vaccinations. I suppose the peak in Japan could be due to the Olympic Games.


Patrick Vallance

Third vaccines for all would certainly be good news for the vaccine manufacturers. Even more so if vaccines had to be given every few months in the forseeable future.


Chris Whitty

But there is concern expressed that the vaccines might doing more harm than good,  and that natural immunity is better than immunity provided by vaccines.  Vaccines seem to be losing their benefit much earlier than expected, and the risk of the Delta variant is much higher among those vaccinated. The evidence is that people vaccinated are several times more likely to be infected than those who have natural immunity from previous infection.


Prime Minister

That makes me feel good having had Covid-19. What exactly is the Delta Variant?


Patrick Vallance

It emerged in India, immediately after the vaccination programme took off. It is sometimes called the Vaccine Variant, but only behind closed doors.


Prime Minister

I am told that in the Observer on August 29th there was a report that Covid-19 cases in the UK are 26 times higher than a year ago. Is this true?


Patrick Vallance

I am afraid it is. We expected that with the vaccination programme cases and deaths would be even lower in 2021 than in 2020, but it is not working out that way.


Chris Whitty

I also read the Observer article. In addition it stated that hospital admissions and deaths are a fraction of what they were in August 2020.


Prime Minister

Is this true?


Chris Whitty

I suspect not. According to Worldometer Covid-19 deaths suddenly started to increase in mid-August and now exceed 2020 figures. For example on September 7th 2020 there were just 3 Covid-19 deaths, but on the same day this year there were 209. This is the general pattern at present.


Prime Minister

Cripes! This is terrible. What can we do?


Patrick Vallance

We can hope that it improves, but otherwise we must divert attention. We must continue to make vaccination for the young our main priority, and blame the unvaccinated young for the deteriorating situation.


Prime Minister

But what if there is a backlash against vaccinations?


Patrick Vallance

Well Prime Minister, the main impact will be on the share prices of the pharmaceutical companies. Many of us have a lot to lose.


Chris Whitty

We must continue to emphasise the importance of vaccinations.


Prime Minister

What about the other things, vitamin D, ivermectin, hydoxychloroquine and so on?


Chris Whitty

We have followed your instructions and kept these out of the news and out of clinical use. I must say that the doctors have been very unhappy about this. They are aware that we have had 133,000 Covid-19 deaths and they think that most of these could have been avoided had we used vitamin D in particular from the very beginning.


Prime Minister

Well, that is just speculation.


Chris Whitty

The doctors have been concerned that they have been unable to offer any treatment to Covid-19 patients until they arrive on the intensive care units. If Pfizermectin materialises, that will be a help.


Prime Minister

As I have said I appreciate your success in keeping vitamin D in particular hidden from view, but I am very pleased to have received it myself when I was so very ill with Covid-19. We have had to follow WHO and FDA instructions that there must be no alternative to vaccines, otherwise the Emergency Use Authorisations would not have been granted.


Patrick Vallance

Whatever the benefits Prime Minister, if we bring Vitamin D and its activated form Calcifediol into use now, there will be public outcry from the relatives of the dead as to why we did not do so at the beginning.


Prime Minister

It is all very difficult. We really are in a mess but at present beneath the surface. We simply must continue with vaccinations, otherwise the public will lose confidence in us.


Patrick Vallance

And if cases and deaths increase we must blame it on new variants.


Prime Minister

And people who have not been vaccinated.


Chris Whitty

Prime Minister, I am still concerned that the public might become aware of what is happening around the world. The public have been expecting that the vaccinations would make things better. What will happen if the pandemic continues to get worse?


Patrick Vallance

It is inevitable that the pandemic will settle in time, and the official line is that when it does, it will be the result of the highly successful vaccination programmes.


Prime Minister

While we are here, what is the situation with deaths and ill-effects from the vaccines?


Chris Whitty

The Yellow Card system is functioning but there seems to be little notice taken and certainly no actions. We rely on the fact that in individual cases, proof is not possible and we emphasise that co-incidences do happen.


Patrick Vallance

I read that the coroner concluded that the death of Lisa Shaw, the BBC presenter, was the direct result of the very recent vaccination. 


Prime Minister

I am told that the BBC will keep quiet about this unfortunate case. Let’s hope so. The last thing we want is a succession of claims of vaccine damage,


Patrick Vallance

Especially as the government has accepted financial liability.  


Prime Minister

I certainly never expected the Covid-19 pandemic to turn out to be anything like as bad and complicated as it has turned out to be. And it seems to be far from over. The end of September is likely to see the mess even worse, unless the pandemic goes away. I am sure we will be meeting again very soon. 


Exit Patrick Vallance and CW.




11 comments:

  1. https://stuartbramhall.wordpress.com/2021/08/21/coronavirus-cases-spike-in-highly-vaccinated-israel-but-drop-in-unvaccinated-palestine/

    ReplyDelete
  2. Such a pity this is all basically true rather than satire. :O

    I don't think the government really want people to learn anything from the Yellow Card Scheme. UK Column have provided a searchable index which may be useful if somewhat alarming.

    https://yellowcard.ukcolumn.org/yellow-card-reports

    ReplyDelete
  3. I am not surprised by any of this. Clearly natural immunity will always prevail over artificial immunity. This year has been worse in many ways than last in spite of vaccinations. Overseas travel has not opened up but standing last week on a packed rain from Bradford on Avon to Bath ... like sardines ... can only promote infection in the UK. I think David has hit the nail on the head. .... officially it now cannot be made public that all of this could have been prevented by Vit D. Dr Peter Hilton

    ReplyDelete
  4. David, thank you for another nail on the head post.

    Your comments on modelers not foreseeing this is inaccurate. The official government calc by prof Fergusson for the current wave was issued 7 July 2021. It has assumed vaccination etc. and the middle estimate for covid deaths from July to the end of the year is 35300,

    An optimistic value of 14000, and a pessimistic value of 75500. These then do not include the uncertainties, but the upper limit on death was put at 130000!

    As I said this is the official government estimate so Johnson would be well aware of the numbers.

    Since 1 July there have been 5882 recorded deaths. We should expect the worse.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/imperial-college-london-evaluating-the-roadmap-out-of-lockdown-for-england-modelling-the-delayed-step-4-of-the-roadmap-in-the-context-of-the-delta-v?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_source=30d9f592-265c-4b00-a482-1036a3fbe6f7&utm_content=daily


    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001177/S1303_Imperial_College_London_Evaluating_the_Roadmap_out_of_Lockdown_for_England_modelling_the_delayed_step_4.2_of_the_roadmap_in_the_context_of_the_Delta_variant__7_July_2021__1_.pdf

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Owen
      I do not beleieve that there has ever been a precedent for an epidemic/pandemic of a resipiratory virus infection to suddenly appear in the middle of the summer. And predictions, mathematical formulas, can only be made on the basis of previous experiences. We know that 3 minus 2 equals 1. We know from previous experience that an increase is likely to appear in the winter, unless successful human intervention that could be achieved by correcting widespread vitamin D deficiency. THis would also need to be factored into a prediction. Otherwise it is just guesswork. Unless there is the spiritual insight of astrology. A guess can always be made and occasionally it might be correct. It is also the shapes of the curves that do not fit in with biological epidemics and I will disply more of this in my next Blog post.

      Delete
  5. excess death data.
    https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9
    I dont understand what is going on but the number of excess deaths is not great at present, compared to the number of positive cases. I find this puzzling, unless it is because of the protective higher summer levels of vitamin d in this country. But if that is so, why are other countries having a surge? I think the government is right in allowing us to mix. If we are to have another wave I think its better to get on with it before winter comes. None of the so called forecasters seem to be able to predict with any degree of accuracy what is likely to happen. We have to live our lives and hope that we get through the pandemic. The average age of death was 82 years. if we want to continue to take steps to avoid catching the virus then any individual can take them as they personally see fit.

    ReplyDelete
  6. A very interesting conversation, a senior nurse who incidentally has not been vaccinated due to safety concerns is now finding colleagues who have been double vaccinated very concerned as they are seeing double vaccinated people being admitted to hospital not only for Covid but other strange illnesses that doctors are finding difficult to both diagnose and treat. They themselves are becoming more concerned now about the possible effects the vaccine will have on them. Many are regretting having the vaccine until the end of the trial period.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can understand the concerns of those vaccinated, but it is not possible to be "unvaccinated". To keep safe the best plan is to take vitamin D in a dose of 4,000 units each day. This is safe. Also new trial shows the benefit of vitamin D in its fully activated form Calcitriol. I am working on it for the next Blog in a couple of days time. For the government to recomend giving vaccines to children at this stage, against professional advice, is criminal.

      Delete
  7. There is an explanation on ‘More or Less’ on bbc radio4 as to the reasons for vaccinated people being admitted to hospital.
    The gist is that the vaccine is not 100% effective so some people will get infected particularly with the more transmissible delta variant. Because the majority of adults are now vaccinated it means that a large cohort of people admitted to hospital will be vaccinated. It doesn’t mean the vaccine is not working.
    When I was working I saw a lot of people with unexplained medical symptoms. No doubt some of these will now be labelled as having vaccine side effects!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Guardian headline today “Fully vaccinated people account for 1.2% of Covid deaths” was followed by the information that the time-scale was January to July 2021. The proportion would have been even less had it been January 2020 to July 2021. The point is that “fully vaccinated” means two vaccinations twelve weeks apart (at the time). With vaccinations starting only at the very end of December 2020, the reality is that full vaccination could only have been achieved at the end of March. The vast majority of the 51,281 Covid deaths occurred during January and February, when deaths had reached more than 1,000 per day, and obviously those who died had not been fully vaccinated. In April and May deaths per day were in single figures.
      The headline was true data but meaningless information. Data from August would be very different for the simple reason that most people would have been vaccinated. A serious misuse of information but good spin.

      Delete
  8. I agree with use of Vitamin D along with Zinc, Quercetin & Vitamin C, all of which would sustain and promote a functional immune system. It would therefore be reasonable to assume that a fully functioning immune system would never require vaccines, possibly an arguable point, but I would support it.

    I think too many people have lost sight of the simple fact that a vaccine that is still within its trial period parameters is being experimented on the general public. Like all experimental drugs there are both positive and negative outcomes. From both a moral and scientific point of view, at what point do we analyse whether the harm out way the good?

    ReplyDelete